Self-selection,earnings, and out-migration: A longitudinal study of immigrants to Germany

In this paper we examine the process of out-migration and investigate whether cross-sectional earnings assimilation results suffer from selection bias due to out-migration. Our 14 year longitudinal study reveals that emigrants are negatively selected with respect to occupational prestige and to stable full time employment. Our results show no selectivity with respect to human capital or gender. The likelihood of return migration is strongly determined by the range and nature of social attachments to Germany and origin countries. It is also the highest during the first five years since arrival, and grows higher toward retirement. Selective emigration, however, does not appear to distort cross-sectional estimates of earnings assimilation in a relevant way.All Correspondence to Douglas S. Massey. This study has been made possible through various research visits to DIW Berlin and IZA in Bonn. We are grateful for the access to the data, and many useful comments on various drafts by Klaus F. Zimmermann. Earlier drafts were presented at the annual conference of the Population Association of America in Atlanta, and research seminars at Princeton University and IZA, Bonn. We wish to thank many participants for stimulating discussions and useful comments. We have benefitted in making revisions from the comments of three anonymous referees. Responsible editor: Klaus F. Zimmermann.     

Unemployment and consumption near and far away from the Mediterranean

We study the insurance mechanisms employed by households to absorb unemployment shocks using comparable data for four countries: Italy, Spain, Great Britain, and the US. Results on family transfers when the male household head becomes unemployed suggest that family networks are the weakest in Britain, while unemployment benefits there are instead the most generous across the four countries. Despite these differences, food consumption losses induced by unemployment of the male household head are similar across countries. These findings are consistent with the view that family support and the Welfare State substitute each other in mitigating the consequences of unemployment shocks. The first author is also affiliated with CEPR and CESifo, the second author with EUI, CEPR, CESifo, and IZA.     

Earnings uncertainty,precautionary saving,and moonlighting in Russia

Using a panel of 3,522 Russian households over the period 1994-2000, this paper tests the precautionary saving hypothesis, according to which households save to self-insure against uncertainty. We proxy uncertainty with a measure of earnings variability based on the subjective probability of primary job loss of household heads, and find that this variable generally has a strong positive effect on saving, supporting the precautionary saving hypothesis. This effect is however reversed for those households whose head holds more than one job, highlighting the role of moonlighting as a self-insurance mechanism that can be used in alternative to precautionary saving to smooth consumption in the presence of fluctuating earnings. Our findings are robust to different measures of uncertainty and estimation procedures.The authors are indebted to an anonymous referee and the editor T. Paul Schultz for helpful comments and suggestions. B-Y Kim gratefully acknowledges the financial support of the British Economic and Social Research Council (grant no. R000222463). A. Guariglia acknowledges the financial support of the University of Kent Faculty Research Fund Grant. Responsible editor: T. Paul Schultz     

Towards a European migration policy

The stagnating West European population combined with the prosperous economic development of the European Community (EC) generate strong economic incentives for immigration. The drastic political changes in Eastern Europe have caused additional migration pressures. There are a variety of problems with the economic and political integration of migrants, however. The paper argues that immigration can compensate for demographic losses due to the decline and ageing of the European labor force. Economic theory further predicts welfare gains from free factor movements, which should be reaped as long as social costs and adjustment costs are not prohibitive. An active European migration policy is recommended to achieve this aim.This article is a completely revised version of CEPR Discussion Paper No. 641, presented by the second author at the CEPR Workshop The economies of migration on 23 November 1991 in London, UK, and at a hearing of the European Parliament on 25 May 1992 in Bruxelles, Belgium.     

Convergence and determinants of non-employment durations in Eastern and Western Germany

Since monetary union between eastern and western Germany in 1990, non-employment spells have been shorter in the east, and there has been no convergence. Analysis of the German Socio-Economic Panel for 1990–2000 indicates that there is some convergence in the determinants of durations, owing to increasing age differentials for eastern men, and an increasing influence of children for eastern women. The latter has contributed to the decline in female employment. Skill affects non-employment duration less than it affects employment duration, and the gender gap in eastern non-employment duration cannot be characterized as a skills gap.I am very grateful to Ann Huff Stevens, Rachel Friedberg, Daniel Parent and Chris Sims for helpful discussions. I also thank participants in seminars at Boston College, Bristol, Essex, London School of Economics, University College London, and Warwick for comments on an earlier version. I am indebted to Yunning Xu for research assistance, and the Yale Center for International and Area Studies for financial support. I am also affiliated with the following institutes: NBER, CEPR, IZA, William Davidson, DIW, CIREQ and CIRANO. Responsible editor: Christoph M. Schmidt     

BOOK REVIEWS

Book reviewed in this articles: Paul Collier The Bottom Billion: Why the Poorest Countries Are Failing and What Can Be Done About It Michael J. Rosenfeld The Age of Independence: Interracial Unions, Same‐Sex Unions, and the Changing American Family Wolfgang Lutz , Rudolf Richter , and Chris Wilson (EDS.) The New Generations of Europeans: Demography and Families in the Enlarged European Union Laura L. Lovett Conceiving the Future: Pronatalism, Reproduction, and the Family in the United States, 1890–1938 Michel Foucault Security, Territory, Population: Lectures at the Collège de France, 1977–78 SHORT REVIEWS Sudhir Anand , Fabienne Peter , and Amartya Sen (EDS.) Public Health, Ethics, and Equity James Chin The AIDS Pandemic: The Collision of Epidemiology with Political Correctness Jennifer Cole and Deborah Durham (EDS.) Generations and Globalization: Youth, Age, and Family in the New World Economy Wayne A. Cornelius AND Jessa M. Lewis (EDS.) Impacts of Border Enforcement on Mexican Migration: The View from Sending Communities Rashid Hassan , Robert Scholes , and Neville Ash (EDS.) Ecosystems and Human Well‐being: Volume 1, Current State and Trends Matthias Koch , Claus Harmer , and Florian Coulmas Trilingual Glossary of Demographic Terminology: English‐Japanese‐German/ Japanese‐English‐German/German‐Japanese‐English Ian Pool , Arunachalam Dharmalingam , and Janet Sceats The New Zealand Family from 1840: A Demographic History     

SHORT REVIEWS

Books reviewed in this article: Paul Demeny and Geoffrey Mcnicoll (eds.), Encyclopedia of Population Barbara Ehrenreich and Arlie Russell Hochschild (eds.), Global Woman: Nannies, Maids, and Sex Workers in the New Economy Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, World Agriculture: Towards 2015/2030: An FAO Perspective and Summary Report Jeanne X. Kasperson and Roger E. Kasperson, Global Environmental Risk Richard Lynn, Eugenics: A Reassessment Douglas W. Maynard, Hanneke Houtkoop‐Steenstra, Nora Gate Schaeffer, and Johannes van der Zouwen (eds.), Standardization and Tacit Knowledge: Interaction and Practice in the Survey Anthony M. Messina (ed.), West European Immigration and Immigrant Policy in the New Century     

Cohort effects in the educational attainment of second generation immigrants in Germany: An analysis of census data

Even though second generation immigrants make up ever increasing population shares in industrialized countries we know little about their social integration and wellbeing. This study focuses on the educational attainment of German born children of immigrants. Their schooling success still lags behind that of natives. This paper investigates school attendance and completed degrees of second generation immigrants and finds that even after controlling for characteristics the educational gap remains large and significant. The available evidence suggests that this group as a whole does not assimilate to native educational standards and instead increasingly falls behind.This research was completed while the author was guest at the Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) in Bonn, Germany. I am grateful for IZAs hospitality and particularly for the help of Thomas K. Bauer. I thank the anonymous referees and the editors for very helpful comments. Responsible editors: David Card and Christoph M. Schmidt.     

Lessons from stochastic small-area population projections: the case of Waikato subregions in New Zealand

Subnational population projections in New Zealand by means of the conventional deterministic cohort-component method have had a tendency to be conservative: underprojecting fast-growing populations and overprojecting slow-growing ones. In this paper we use a stochastic population projection method as an alternative. We generate population projections for five demographically distinct administrative areas within the Waikato region of New Zealand: Hamilton City, Franklin District, Thames-Coromandel District, Otorohanga District and South Waikato District. The results are compared to official subnational deterministic projections. The accuracy of subnational population projections in New Zealand is strongly affected by the instability of migration as a component of population change. Differently from the standard cohort-component method, in which net migration levels are projected, the key parameters of our method are age-gender-area specific probabilistic net migration rates. Generally, the identified and modelled uncertainty makes the traditional ‘mid-range’ scenario of subnational deterministic projections of limited use for policy analysis or planning beyond a relatively short projection horizon. We find that the projected range of rates of population growth is wider for smaller regions and/or regions more strongly affected by net migration. Directions for further development of the methodology are suggested.     

Migration and Pacific Mortality: Estimating Migration Effects on Pacific Mortality Rates Using Bayesian Models

Pacific people living in New Zealand have higher mortality rates than New Zealand residents of European/Other ethnicity. The aim of this paper is to see whether Pacific mortality rates vary by natality and duration of residence. We used linked census-mortality information for 25- to 74-year-olds in the 2001 census followed for up to three years. Hierarchical Bayesian modeling provided a means of handling sparse data. Posterior mortality rates were directly age-standardized. We found little evidence of mortality differences between the overseas-born and the New Zealand–born for all-cause, cancer, and cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality. However, we found evidence for lower all-cause (and possibly cancer and CVD) mortality rates for Pacific migrants resident in New Zealand for less than 25 years relative to those resident for more than 25 years. This result may arise from a combination of processes operating over time, including health selection effects from variations in New Zealand’s immigration policy, the location of Pacific migrants within the social, political, and cultural environment of the host community, and health impacts of the host culture. We could not determine the relative importance of these processes, but identifying the (modifiable) drivers of the inferred long-term decline in health of the overseas-born Pacific population relative to more-recent Pacific migrants is important to Pacific communities and from a national health and policy perspective.     

New Zealand = Māori,New Zealand = Bicultural: Ethnic Group Differences in a National Sample of Māori and Europeans

New Zealand (NZ) Europeans show a unique implicit bicultural effect, with research using the Implicit Association Test consistently showing that they associate Māori (the Indigenous peoples) and their own (dominant/advantaged majority) group as equally representative of the nation. We replicated and extended this NZ = bicultural effect in a small online national sample of Māori and NZ Europeans. The NZ European majority showed a consistent NZ = bicultural effect. Māori, in contrast, showed an automatic ingroup NZ = Māori effect. These results are contrary to predictions derived from Social Identity Theory and System Justification Theory, and instead seem more consistent with a model incorporating the pervasive effects of culture-specific symbols on automatic representations of the national category.     

Household fertility responses following communism: Transition in the Czech Republic and Slovakia

In central Europe fertility fell during transition from centrally planned to market oriented economies. Families reevaluated fertility plans facing new wages, reduced child-care subsidies, and economic uncertainty. Using micro-data from 1984 and 1993 in the Czech Republic and Slovakia, this paper relates fertility changes following Communism to wages, pricesand risks. Earnings have little impact on fertility timing during transition, though age, job uncertainty, and children conceived during Communism do. In the Czech Republic, changed fertility demand parameters account for much of thefall in fertility. In Slovakia a sizable proportion results from predictable responses to changed incentives.I would like to thank my Czech collaborators Pavel Mahonn, Petr Mateju, and Jiri Vecernk for enabling this empirical work to proceed; T. Paul Schultz, and Jenny Hunt and seminar participants at Yale University, the NEUDC, and the Population Association of America annual meetings and two anonymous referees for helpful comments. I am also indebted to the Mellon Foundation Area Studies Grant program for financial support allowing field work on this topic. I am wholly responsible for all errors. Responsible editor: T. Paul Schultz.     

The effects of the welfare system on marital dissolution

The economic theory of marriage predicts that the partners expectations of greater financial resources outside of marriage should increase the probability of marital dissolution. One potential implication is that marriages should be less stable in states with higher AFDC benefits. I study this implication empirically using data on separations and divorces among marriages involving women in the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth. I find no supporting evidence that higher welfare benefits lead to increased rates of marital dissolution among married women with children.I thank Mary Ellen Benedict, Madeline Zavodny, and two anonymous referees for helpful comments, and Saul Hoffman for providing his data on AFDC benefits. Responsible editor: T. Paul Schultz.     

Changing fertility rates in developed countries. The impact of labor market institutions

During the last two decades fertility rates have decreased and have become positively correlated with female participation rates across OECD countries. I use a panel of 23 OECD nations to study how different labor market arrangements shaped these trends. High unemployment and unstable contracts, common in Southern Europe, depress fertility, particularly of younger women. To increase lifetime income though early skill-acquisition and minimize unemployment risk, young women postpone (or abandon) childbearing. Further, both a large share of public employment, by providing employment stability, and generous maternity benefits linked to previous employment, such as those in Scandinavia, boost fertility of the 25–29 and 30–34 year old women.Financial help from a CRB grant from the University of Illinois is gratefully acknowledged. I would like to thank Carles Boix, Barry Chiswick, Carmel Chiswick, Evelyn Lehrer, three anonymous referees and seminar participants at ESPE 2000 (Bonn), Illinois Economic Meetings 2000 (Chicago), Simposi dAnalisi Economica 2000 (Barcelona), 2001 Winter meetings of the Econometric Society in New Orleans, ESPE 2001 (Athens), Braga (Portugal), University of Chicago, De Paul University, PAA 2002 (Atlanta) for helpful comments; Gosta Esping-Andersen for providing some data and Cristina Mora for excellent research assistance. Responsible editor: Junsen Zhang.     

Assessing the effects of an early retirement program

We investigate induced retirement effects of the Norwegian early retirement program AFP and emphasize effects caused by relocations of some individuals from disability pension and unemployment to AFP. Theoretical considerations predict that AFP unambiguously induces more early retirement. Analyzing Norwegian register data 1994–96 with parametric and non-parametric methods, we demonstrate that i) economic incentives influence the retirement decision, ii) there is a significant net induced retirement effect, iii) by a conservative judgment, at least 50% of the AFP retirees would have stayed in the labor force without the scheme.All correspondence to Espen Bratberg. We are indebted to the referees for detailed remarks, which significantly improved the paper. Financial support from the Norwegian Research Council and the Ministry of Health and Social Affairs is greatly appreciated. We are grateful for valuable comments from Erik Hernæs and Astrid Grasdal, seminar participants at the Norwegian School of Management in Oslo, the Institute for International Economic Studies in Stockholm, and the University of Linz, the 2000 Conference of the European Society for Population Economics in Bonn, and the German-Norwegian Seminar on Social Insurance in Berlin, 2000. Bratberg would also like to thank the Humboldt University for its hospitality during a stay in the winter of 2003. Responsible editor: Christoph M. Schmidt.     

Limits to Growth Revisited: A Review Essay*

Robert William Fogel The Escape from Hunger and Premature Death, 1700–2100: Europe, America, and the Third World E. A. Wrigley Poverty, Progress, and Population Tomas Frejka and Jean ‐Paul Sardon Childbearing Trends and Prospects in Low‐Fertility Countries: A Cohort Analysis Roderic Beaujot and Don Kerr Population Change in Canada (second edition) Wolfgang Lutz , Warren C. Sanderson , and Sergei Scherbov (eds. ) The End of World Population Growth in the 21st Century: New Challenges for Human Capital Formation and Sustainable Development Emmanuel Todd After the Empire: The Breakdown of the American Order, translated by C. Jon Delogu     

Effect of childbearing on Filipino women's work hours and earnings

The effects of childbearing and work sector on women's hours and earnings in the 8 years following an index pregnancy were examined in a cohort of more than 2,000 women in the Cebu Longitudinal Health and Nutrition Survey. Change in cash earnings and hours worked were each modeled jointly with sector of labor force participation using an estimation strategy that deals with endogeneity of childbearing decisions and selectivity into sector of work. Two or more additional children born in the 8 year interval significantly reduced women's earnings, while having an additional child under 2 years of age in 1991 reduced hours worked. Received: 16 July 1998/Accepted: 22 March 2001 All correspondence to Linda Adair. The authors wish to thank Family Health International and the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) for their generous support. This publication was funded by USAID under Cooperative Agreement USAID/CCP-3060-A-00-3021-00 to Family Health International (FHI). David Guilkey's participation in this paper was also supported by the MEASURE Evaluation Project also with support from the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) under Contract Number HRN-A-00-97-00018-00. The conclusions expressed in this report do not necessarily reflect the policies of FHI or USAID. Helpful comments by two anonymous referees are gratefully acknowledged. Responsible editor: T. Paul Schultz.     

The decline of intelligence in New Zealand

The social setting in New Zealand to-day is in many respects noticeably different from that of the home country. Observers rarely fail to comment upon the equalitarianism in all walks of life, the stability of the family pattern, the Plunkett system and the achievements of social security. It may come as a surprise, therefore, that in New Zealand a similar downward trend of national intelligence can be observed, as has been ascertained for the United Kingdom by the notable pioneer inquiries of Sir Cyril Burt, Sir Godfrey Thomson and Dr Fraser-Roberts. In the United Kingdom the dysgenic selection seems to operate mainly through differential rates of reproduction in the various strata of society. These differentials are less marked in New Zealand, but it would appear that they are compensated by the effects of migration.     

Modeling Acute Rheumatic Fever

Acute rheumatic fever (ARF) is a major cause of heart disease, rare in developed countries, but of concern in New Zealand, where a unique feature is the prevalence of ARF among Maori and Pacific Island peoples. The incidence and prevalence of ARF in a population are modeled for the New Zealand case, where risks of contracting Group A Streptococcus or developing ARF are allowed to vary according to ethnicity, age, and ARF history. The critical parameter R₀ determines whether a disease will become epidemic or not. A proportional treatment protocol is the most effective at reducing ARF.     

Relationships Between Population Density and the Perceived Quality of Neighbourhood

Two overseas survey-based scales measuring perceived quality of neighbourhood were adapted and replicated in a New Zealand context. An Italian study (Bonaiuto, Fornara, and Bonnes. (2003). Landscape and Urban Planning, 65, 41–52) measuring Perceived Residential Environmental Quality (PREQ) and an American study (Carp and Carp. (1982). Journal of Environmental Psychology, 2, 295–312) using the Perceived Environmental Quality Indices (PEQI) were applied to a sample of Auckland residents, separated into low, medium, and high population density areas. The surveys measured attitudes towards subjects such as noise, neighbours, accessibility, green areas, welfare services, recreational services, safety, maintenance, environmental health, transport services, and characteristics of an ideal neighbourhood, and were completed by 369 respondents. Primary analyses examined differences in perception across the three density groups. The factor structures of both scales were replicated with the Auckland sample, and differences across densities were found for subscales of the PREQ. The results are discussed in relation to the cross-cultural similarities of perceived environmental quality, and the concept that environmental satisfaction is based on balancing aspects of the residential environment is proposed. This research was conducted for the Foundation for Research, Science, and Technology under contract OPSX401.