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1.
This paper constructs an overlapping-generations model with two different types of technology: modern, which can be accessed only by the skilled, and traditional, which can be accessed by the unskilled. The model described in this paper shows that a rise in the wage premium for skilled workers caused by skill-biased technological changes explains the following key stylized facts: with economic development, the fraction of skilled people increases, the fertility rate declines, and income inequality rises and then falls. The model also explains the observed gradual rises in income inequality in developed countries.   相似文献   

2.
The impact of the personal income tax dependent exemption, abortion availability, and other factors on fertility rates is analyzed. US time series data for 1915–88 are used in the empirical model. The results indicate that greater abortion availability in the USA is associated with lower fertility. A higher value of the dependent exemption generally is associated with higher fertility, but the magnitude and significance of the effect is sensitive to specification choice. The results suggest that restricting abortion availability in the USA will increase the fertility rate, but a change in the tax value of the dependent exemption will have a less predictable impact on fertility.  相似文献   

3.
The paper presents a comparative analysis of the relationship between rural-urban migration and fertility in Korea, Mexico, and Cameroon. Using an autoregressive model, the results show a significant rural-urban migration adaptation effect in Korea and Mexico, a reduction of 2.57 and 1.45 children during the entire childbearing period, respectively, when compared to a rural stayer, even after the effect of selection has been controlled. Rural-urban migration has a very small impact on fertility in Cameroon. The unexpected result for Cameroon is due to the fact that the fertility-increasing effect of urban residency on the improved supply conditions of births, such as reduced infertility, offsets the fertility-depressing effect of urban residency on the demand for births. As a result of the adaptation to urban fertility norms, the number of country-wide births was reduced significantly in Mexico and Korea over the time periods studied.  相似文献   

4.
Endogenous fertility,mortality and growth   总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0  
Economic and demographic outcomes are determined jointly in a choice-theoretic model of fertility, mortality and capital accumulation. There is an endogenous population of reproductive agents who belong to dynastic families of overlapping generations connected through altruism. In addition to choosing savings and births, parents may reduce (infant) deaths by incurring expenditures on health-care which is also provided by the government. A generalised production technology accounts for long-run endogenous growth with short-run transitional dynamics. The analysis yields testable time series and cross-section implications which accord with the empirical evidence on the relationship between demography and development. Received: 22 April 1996 / Accepted: 2 April 1998  相似文献   

5.
Numerous studies of fertility behavior find that an early age at first birth increases the rate of subsequent childbearing. Typically, however, these studies do not account for the possibility of serial correlation in the unobserved determinants of fertility. Using 1979–1992 individual-level data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth, this paper employs the Method of Simulated Moments to estimate panel probit models of annual birth outcomes. The panel probit models account for several alternative sources of serial correlation. Estimation reveals that once serial correlation is taken into account, the subsequent fertility effects of early childbearing are either statistically eliminated or reversed. JEL classification: J13 Received March 3, 1995 / Accepted February 23, 1996  相似文献   

6.
孟轲 《南方人口》2008,23(4):1-7
根据“江苏省生育意愿和生育行为”基线调查数据,本文使用交叉分析,多元线性回归等方法,探讨独生子女和非独生子女生育意愿的差异。结果表明,在意愿生育数量、意愿生育性别和意愿生育时间方面独生子女和非独生子女没有显著差异。  相似文献   

7.
This paper presents microevidence on the effect of adult longevity on schooling and fertility. Higher longevity is systematically associated with higher schooling and lower fertility. The paper looks at the 1996 Brazilian Demographic and Health Survey and constructs an adult longevity variable based on the mortality history of the respondent's family. Families with histories of high adult mortality in previous generations have systematically higher fertility and lower schooling. These effects are not associated with omitted variables and remain unchanged after a large array of factors is accounted for (demographic characteristics, family-specific child mortality, regional development, socioeconomic status, etc.).
Rodrigo R. SoaresEmail:
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8.
This paper develops and tests hypotheses about the impact of opportunity structures on black fertility across local labor markets. US Vital Statistics and Census of Population data are combined and then examined with regression techniques to estimate the effect of both race-specific and relative measures of opportunity structure on black fertility in the United States. The results show that relative female opportunity structure has a negative relationship with black total fertility rates as well as with birth rates for specific points along the reproductive age structure. However, the hypothesized relationship between relative male opportunity structures and black fertility is not supported. We discuss these results as they relate to minority fertility theory and as they relate to public policy concerns.  相似文献   

9.
Understanding how households make fertility decisions is important to implementing effective policy to slow population growth. Most empirical studies of this decision are based on household models in which men and women are assumed to act as if they have the same preferences for the number of children. However, if men and women have different preferences regarding fertility and are more likely to assert their own preferences as their bargaining power in the household increases, policies to lower fertility rates may be more effectively targeted toward one spouse or the other. In this paper, we test the relevance of the single preferences model by investigating whether men and women's nonwage incomes have the same effects on the number of children in the household. We find that while increases in both the man and woman's nonwage income lower the number of children in the household, an equivalent increase in the woman's income has a significantly stronger effect than the man's. In addition, we find that increases in women's nonwage transfer income have the strongest effects on the fertility decisions of women with low levels of education. The most important policy implication of our results is that policies aimed at increasing the incomes of the least-educated women will be the most effective in lowering fertility rates.  相似文献   

10.
This paper uses hazard regression models to assess the impact of experienced infant and child mortality on the risk of subsequent conceptions in Ethiopia. The purpose of this paper is to test for the presence of a fertility response to an infant or child death, net of the effects of truncated breastfeeding on fecundity. Using retrospective birth history data from a national survey in Ethiopia, we find a significantly higher risk of a conception in the months following the death of an index child, even after controlling for postpartum amenorrhoea and breastfeeding status. The fertility response is strongest after the death of the fourth or fifth child, which is when most women in Ethiopia are at or near their desired family size. However, we find no evidence of a fertility response to the death of a nonindex child. We attribute the higher risk of a conception following an index child’s death to the intentional efforts of couples to reduce the waiting time to a next birth and thereby replace the deceased child. However, absent evidence of replacement fertility in response to the death of older nonindex children, we interpret the response to the death of an index child as an emotional response to child loss rather than a conscious strategy to meet a fertility target.
Gebre-Egziabher KirosEmail:
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11.
The paper investigates the importance of income in young Americans decisions to form and dissolve households. Using data on young American men and women from the NLSY, an important role for income in both these transitions is found. There are significant differences between young men and women. High earnings capacity increases the probability of marriage and decreases the probability of divorce for young men. High earnings capacity decreases the probability of marriage for young women, and has no impact on divorce.Thanks are due to seminar audiences at Bristol and the Royal Economic Society, two anonymous referees and the Editor for useful comments, and to Matt Dickson for preparation of the tables. Any errors are those of the authors. Responsible editor: John F. Ermisch.  相似文献   

12.
Family caps seek to reduce fertility among welfare recipients by denying additional cash assistance to recipients who have children while on welfare. A necessary condition for family caps to be an effective policy tool is that welfare recipients respond to financial incentives in making decisions that affect subsequent fertility outcomes. This paper uses data from the 2001 and 2004 panels of the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP) to examine whether welfare mothers respond to the incentive provided by the Aid to Families with Dependent Children/Temporary Assistance to Needy Families (AFDC/TANF) system in determining whether or not to have a second child. The results show no evidence that family caps have an effect on the subsequent childbearing of never married women.
Geoffrey L. WallaceEmail:
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13.
Educational mobility and the fertility of black and white women   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
In a test of the minority group status hypothesis, this study examines the effect of intergenerational educational mobility on the fertility of black and white women. Regression analysis of data from the National Survey of Family Growth provides only limited support for the hypothesis that upwardly mobile black women have lower fertility than their white counterparts. The main finding is that the parity of upwardly mobile black women is influenced more strongly by educational origins (parents' education) than is the parity of upwardly mobile white women. Thus, future studies should consider the effects of social origins on racial differences in fertility.This article is a revised version of a paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Sociological Association, 23 August 1992, Pittsburgh, PA, USA.  相似文献   

14.
This paper examines the theoretical propositions and empirical evidence linking policies and fertility. More specifically, the analysis presented in this paper draws attention to the complex mechanisms that theoretically link policies and demographic outcomes: mechanisms that involve imperfect information and decisions that are rationally bound by very specific circumstances. As to the empirical evidence, studies provide mixed conclusions as to the effect of policies on fertility. While a small positive effect of policies on fertility is found in numerous studies, no statistically significant effect is found in others. Moreover, some studies suggest that the effect of policies tends to be on the timing of births rather than on completed fertility.
Anne H. GauthierEmail:
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15.
We use individual-level data from the 1997 National Longitudinal Survey of Youth and state unemployment rates to examine how the economy affects fertility and its proximate determinants for several groups based on gender, age (15–17 and 18–20 groups), and race/ethnicity. We find that, for 15- to 17-year-old females, several behaviors leading to pregnancies and pregnancies themselves are higher when the unemployment rate is higher, which is consistent with the counter-cyclical fertility patterns for this group. For 18- to 20-year-old males, the results suggested counter-cyclical patterns of fertility behaviors/outcomes for whites, but pro-cyclical patterns for blacks. This research was funded by grant R03HD47407 from the National Institute on Child and Health Development.  相似文献   

16.
Cointegration methods are employed to investigate relations among total fertility, female wages, labor force participation, educational attainment, and male relative cohort size. Two long run relations among the series are found, and these are identified as a fertility and a labor supply equation. All covariates enter into these relations with significant coefficients and theoretically plausible signs. Innovation analysis shows that both fertility and female labor force participation respond to changes in relative cohort size in directions consistent with the Easterlin hypothesis. Female labor force participation responds significantly to fertility shocks, but reverse effects are insignificant.All correspondence to Robert McNown. The authors wish to thank Cristobal Ridao-Cano, Kenneth Land, Alessandro Cigno, and an anonymous referee for comments on an earlier draft of this paper. Responsible editor: Alessandro Cigno.  相似文献   

17.
本文在分析了河南省建国以来生育水平变化的基础上,从5个方面探讨了河南当前低生育水平下的生育模式,并结合实际提出了推进河南生育现代化的几点对策和建议。  相似文献   

18.
Previous studies report a strong negative association between income inequality and population health at the aggregate level. However, it is still in hot debate whether this ecological association indicates a genuine, causal effect of income inequality on health, as asserted by the Wilkinson hypothesis, or it simply reflects a nonlinear effect of individual income on health, as suggested by the absolute income hypothesis. Drawing data from the 2005 round of the World Values Survey, I analyze the relationship between individual income, income inequality, and self-rated general health in a multilevel framework. Results show no independent detrimental effect of country income inequality on individual self-rated general health. In contrast, self-rated general health is strongly associated with absolute material conditions both at the individual and at the country level. Therefore, this study gives more evidence to the absolute income hypothesis, i.e., the strong ecological association between income inequality and population health is more likely a reflection of the nonlinear effect of individual income on health rather than a genuine effect of income inequality.  相似文献   

19.
Introducing a fertility decision and child care cost into an overlapping generations model with public education and social security, we examine the effects of these public policies on fertility. We show that an increase in income tax, which finances social security benefits and public investment in education, increases fertility. On the other hand, with a constant tax rate, a change in the allocation from social security benefits to public investment in education decreases fertility and, with a constant social security tax, the effect of education tax on fertility is neutral.   相似文献   

20.
With the growing prevalence of the dual-earner family model in industrialized countries the gendered nature of the relationship between employment and parenting has become a key issue for childbearing decisions and behavior. In such a context taking into account the societal gender structure (public policies, family-level gender relations) explicitly can enhance our understanding of contemporary fertility trends. In this paper we study the second birth, given its increasing importance in the developed world as large proportions of women remain childless or bear only one child. We focus on Sweden where gender equality is pronounced at both the societal and the family level and on Hungary where the dual-earner model has been accompanied by traditional gender relations in the home sphere. Our analysis is based on data extracted from the Swedish and Hungarian Fertility and Family Surveys of 1992/93. We use the method of hazard regression. The results suggest that the second-birth intensity increases as the combination of parenthood and labor-force attachment of either parent is facilitated. We see this in the effect of family policies in Sweden and in the higher second-birth intensity of couples who share family responsibilities as compared to those with traditional gender-role behavior in both countries. Also, the lack of any visible impact of men's educational attainment in both Sweden and Hungary is probably linked to public policies as state support for families with children has reduced the importance of income for second childbearing. A positive educational gradient for Swedish women and an essentially zero gradient in Hungary reflects the success of policy measures in reducing fertility cost for more educated women in both countries.  相似文献   

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