DOES CORRUPTION ATTENUATE THE EFFECT OF RED TAPE ON EXPORTS?

I use firm ‐level data to examine whether corruption attenuates the adverse effects of red tape on exports. I find that, conditional on there being customs‐related red tape, a firm is better off if it can use bribes to lower the delay that it faces. However, I also find that corruption has a negative overall effect on a firm's decision to export. That is, corruption prevents some firms from entering the export market. These results suggest that to gauge the overall effect of corruption, we must compare its red‐tape attenuating effect with its adverse effect on a firm's decision to export. (JEL F10, F14, K42)     

BOON OR BURDEN? THE EFFECT OF PRIVATE SECTOR DEBT ON THE RISK OF SOVEREIGN DEFAULT IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

We explore how the share of the private sector in total external debt affects perceived creditworthiness and the likelihood of sovereign default in developing countries. While there are theoretical arguments both in favor and against a stabilizing role of private‐sector borrowing, the evidence supports the notion that a greater share of the private sector in total external debt is associated with a reduced likelihood of sovereign default. (JEL F34, O16)     

RELIGIOSITY,PEERS, AND DELINQUENCY: DOES RELIGIOSITY REDUCE THE EFFECT OF PEERS ON DELINQUENCY?

Do peer influences have the same effect on religious and nonreligious youth, or does religiosity reduce the effect of peers on delinquency? Using data from the National Youth Survey, we examined the interaction of religiosity and peer influences on marijuana use, alcohol use, hitting, and property offenses. The results suggest that, for marijuana use and alcohol use, three measures of peer influence—peer attitudes, behaviors, and pressure—have weaker effects on religious adolescents. Thus, even when religious youth are exposed to peers who encourage substance use, religiosity may serve as a protective factor that reduces the effect of peers. In contrast, religiosity does not seem to condition the effect of peers on hitting and property offenses.     

SHOULD WE GET MARRIED? THE EFFECT OF PARENTS' MARRIAGE ON OUT‐OF‐WEDLOCK CHILDREN

Using a representative sample of children all born to unwed parents drawn from the Fragile Families and Child Wellbeing Study and a potential outcome approach to account for self-selection into marriage, we investigate whether marriage after childbearing has a causal effect on early child development. Comparing children with similar background characteristics and parental mate-selection patterns who differ only in terms of whether their parents marry after childbirth, we find that marriage after childbirth significantly increases a child's early cognitive performance but there is no evidence that it affects child asthma risk or behavioral outcomes.     

RELIGIOSITY,MORAL BELIEFS,AND DELINQUENCY: DOES THE EFFECT OF RELIGIOSITY ON DELINQUENCY DEPEND ON MORAL BELIEFS?

Does the effect of religiosity on delinquent behavior depend on moral beliefs? For example, will religious adolescents refrain from using marijuana, even if they do not believe using marijuana is wrong? We addressed this question using data from the third and fourth waves of the National Youth Survey. The results indicated a significant interaction between religiosity and moral beliefs for marijuana use and getting drunk, but not for hitting or property offenses. Religiosity has a stronger effect on marijuana and alcohol use when adolescents also believe these behaviors are wrong. Conversely, when it is not accompanied by strong moral beliefs, religiosity has less of an effect on marijuana use and drinking.     

DOES THE LAUNCH OF THE EURO HINDER THE CURRENT ACCOUNT ADJUSTMENT OF THE EUROZONE?

This paper examines current account adjustments before and after the launch of the euro. Applying a dynamic panel model, we provide robust evidence to support that the adoption of the euro facilitates rather than hinders the adjustment of current accounts. This finding agrees with our results that the use of the euro assists real exchange rate and inflation rate adjustments. We also find that the independence of exchange rate regimes from current account, real exchange rate and inflation rate adjustments is observed when standard panel estimation methods are applied and when time‐varying smooth shifts in mean are not controlled. (JEL C33, F32, F41)     

THE LIFE OF THE DISABLED IN TANGSHAN

TANGSHAN, in northeastern Hebei Province, is noted for its coal, steel, iron,porcelain and the great earthquake that astonished the world. When the earthquake occurred in 1976, 240,000 people died and 160,000 people were injured. By now, the total     

THE END OF THE ART CONNOISSEUR? EXPERTS AND KNOWLEDGE PRODUCTION IN THE VISUAL ARTS IN THE DIGITAL AGE

In this digital age, declarations surface of the death of the expert and the democratization of information. Crowd wisdom is seen as the new guide in constructing and evaluating knowledge. In the context of the art world, this tension between the amateurs and the experts becomes particularly pronounced as popular meets high culture. Questions arise such as: what is the role of the expert in the evaluation of art in contemporary times? Do social media dismantle age-old hierarchies and established priesthoods in the art world? And can we assume that mass participation in valuation results in better judgments? This article addresses such popular notions of participation and expertise concerning social media in the art world through a historical lens by re-examining and positioning art experts from past to present. Particularly, characteristics of intermediaries in the art market are examined closely regarding their strategies in knowledge production and the establishment of expertise. This historical situatedness enables us to move beyond the hype of new media expectations, generating more appropriate avenues of investigation to better grasp possible changes amongst actors within the contemporary art world. This examination is not just theoretically relevant but practically so, given current pressures on art institutions to embrace and reach out to new audiences online.     

ON THE COVER

Yu Meihao graduated from the Central Institute of Arts and Crafts. Over the past ten years, the young fashion designer has won awards in numerous shows and     

THE SITES OF THE FOURTH WORLD CONFERENCE ON WOMEN

The Beijing International Convention Center will be the conference hall for government delegations of the Fourth World Conference on Women. The Beijing International Convention Center was built in 1990. With advanced facilities, Chinese and Western-style cuisine, and comfortable surroundings, it is an ideal venue for     

ON THE COVER

SHEN Peiyi entered the Beijing Institute of Dancing in 1978. She graduated in 1986, but remained as a dancer with the Youth Song and Dance Ensemble of the institute. In 1988, she was named as national first class dancer because of her outstanding artistic achievement. At that time she was the youngest dancer to achieve this honor in the Chinese dancing field.     

THE MAN IN THE TEFLON SUIT?: THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONNECTION, POLITICAL DRAMA, AND POPULAR SUPPORT IN THE REAGAN PRESIDENCY

An examination of public support during the presidency of RonaldReagan reveals a unique pattern. The major features includetwo instances of rapidly declining support followed by historicallyunprecedented and sustained recoveries. The recovery of supportis particularly surprising given that the literature of theearly 1980s emphasizes the irrecoverable erosion of public supportand a resulting "no win" presidency. In this sense, the patternof public support from 1981 to 1987 raises a significant questionabout the "no win" presidency. Does the Reagan case contradictrecent assertions about the inability of modern presidents tomaintain public support or is Reagan an exception that "provesthe rule"? To answer this question, the analysis is divided into five parts.The first examines the literature and shows that there is astriking uniformity in contemporary accounts of Reagan's publicsupport. These explanations discount the importance of conditionsin the environment and emphasize that Reagan's public supportis based upon a mixture of luck, personality, and politicaldrama. Part two defines political drama and examines its usefrom 1981 to 1987. In part three, we develop a methodology forincorporating political drama into a general model of publicsupport for Reagan. Part four estimates the model and uses theresults to assess the relative impact of the economy and politicaldrama on public support for Reagan. These results are used inthe final section to evaluate the specific explanations of Reagan'spublic support and to reflect upon the competing general explanationsfound in the literature.     

WILL THE EUROPEAN COMMUNITY MAKE THE 1992 DEADLINE ON THE ABOLITION OF INTERNAL BORDER CONTROLS ?

The efforts by the 12 European countries to develop a single market are in jeopardy because of several factors including a failure to come to agreement on the Schengen Supplementary Agreement. If this agreement is not signed soon, the deadline of January 1, 1993 for the opening of the borders will pass. If this occurs, it will signify a failure of the 1st great test of European unity. The Schengen group includes the Benelux, FRG, and France, Italy (as of November 1991), and will probably include Spain and Portugal by June 1991. The primary reason for this trouble stems from the lack of parliamentary control during the negotiation process. Other problems stem from a failure to come to an agreement about the text of the agreement in regards to asylum seekers. The Agreement is not allowed to be modified by signatory States, they must either ratify it or not. There is a great deal of pressure to change this aspect of the Agreement, because it is felt by many that is abandons sovereignty about a crucial issue like frontier borders. Harmonizing rules of entry and granting of asylum are the 2 most powerful forces motivating people to fight against Community competency. Part of this problem is that the number of asylum seekers is growing rapidly and international rules of human rights are conflicting with the vested interests of the member states. Another source of discord was the Group of Coordinators's Palma Document which was approved by the European Council. In it, measures without consensus were called desirable, and those that could be approved were called essential. This way of doing things still created a democratic deficit and maintained the incoherent plan to lift internal borders. Decisive actions are required during the 2nd half of 1991 if the deadline is to be met because the rotating presidency goes to Portugal next. Portugal does not have the political power necessary to finalize the agreement. Denmark is then next after Portugal and is even less interested in coming to agreement than the UK. Therefore, if the agreement is to succeed it must be do so quickly or else suffer from political weakness.     

SHOULD CITIES GO FOR THE GOLD? THE LONG‐TERM IMPACTS OF HOSTING THE OLYMPICS

The Summer Olympics bring hundreds of thousands of visitors and generate upward of $10 billion in spending for the host city. This large influx of tourism dollars is only part of the overall impact of hosting the Olympic Games. In order to host the visitors and sporting events, cities must make sizable investments in infrastructure such as airports, arenas, and highways. Additionally, the publicity and international exposure of a host city may benefit international trade and capital flows. Proponents argue that this investment will pay off through increased economic growth, but research confirming these claims is lacking. This paper examines whether hosting an Olympiad improves a city's long‐term growth. In order to control for the self‐selection of cities that host Olympic Games, this paper matches Olympic host cities with cities that were finalists for the Olympic Games, but were not selected by the International Olympic Committee. A difference‐in‐difference estimator examines post‐Olympic impacts for host cities between 1950 and 2005. Regression results provide no long‐term impacts of hosting an Olympics on two measures of population, real Gross Domestic Product per capita and trade openness. (JEL O18, R11)     

FROM THE CHINESE PRESS

In September 1995, 318 students enrolled in the Tailoring School of Hebei Province set up by rural woman Zhao Xin'ai. They were admitted to this secondary vocational school after passing standard     

FROM THE CHINESE PRESS

Xu Yongguang, the Secretary General of the China Youth Development Foundation, said by the end of 1995, the grand total of the money donated to the Hope Project was 700 million yuan. In the past seven years, this money helped 1.25 million children who might otherwise been deprived of education, and paid for the construction of 2,074 Hope Primary Schools. —People's Daily (overseas editor)     

FROM THE CHINESE PRESS

Discoverer of the Origin of Life The origin of life on earth has long been a subject explored by scientists around the world. At the 11th International Conference on the Origin of Life held at Orleans University in France on July 9th, 1996, Chinese scientist Zhao Yufen and her partner Cao Peisheng announced the contents of the origin of the seed of life.