Political recruitment and electoral success: A look at sex differences in municipal elections

Kenneth Prewitt's framework for studying leadership selection is used to focus on municipal level candidates—winners and losers alike—in nine states. Comparisons between men and women along political and socioeconomic dimensions confirm the results reported in previous works by Jennings and Thomas, Jennings and Farah, and others. However, bivariate and multivariate analyses between and among male/ unsuccessful candidacies of each sex. Findings indicate differences between males and females along these lines.     

Biases in Assessments of Probabilities: New Evidence from Greyhound Races

This paper investigates biases in the perceptions of probabilities using data from the 1989 and 1994 seasons at the Woodlands greyhound park in Kansas City, Kansas. Results reveal consistent evidence that the gambler's fallacy exists. The results also reveal that gamblers overestimate the probability of a win by the favorite and the dog in the lucky seven position. However, the comparison also suggests some learning by bettors between the first season of operation in 1989 and the 1994 season.     

发育邻里网络:降低社区直选成本的根本途径

随着社区体制改革的深入,社区居委会直接选举在越来越多的城市进行了试点,从总体情况来看,选举成本过高是普遍存在的一个制约直选进一步深入的因素.许多人认为,社区直选成本过高的原因是选举程序过于繁琐,应当简化选举程序.当然这是问题的一个方面,但这只是从技术层面上来说的,并不能从根本上解决社区直选成本过高的问题.笔者认为只有通过发展社区的邻里网络组织,培育居民的参与意识,提高选民参加选举的积极性、主动性,才能从根本上降低社区直选成本.下面笔者将以两个具有代表性的社区,W市A社区和N市B社区为个案,对这一问题加以深入分析.     

Estimating Probabilities Relevant to Calculating Relative Risk-Corrected Returns of Alternative Portfolios

In making all-or-none choices between alternative securities, Samuelson (1997b) suggested that investors of different risk-aversion should calculate from past samples of those securities their relevant Harmonic Means, or Geometric means, or other associative means representative of their respective degrees of relative-risk-aversion. Here it is shown how this learning procedure can be improved upon when you have prior knowledge that the securities have log-Normal distributions. Classical estimation theory, concerning consistent, efficient, and sufficient statistics, is shown to have a cash value by means of the calculable measure of (ex ante) “risk-corrected certainty equivalents.” Needed qualifications and testings are also presented.     

The Diversification Theorem Restated: Risk-pooling Without Assignment of Probabilities

Bayesian decision theory assumes that agents making choices assign subjective probabilities to outcomes, even in cases where information on probabilities is obviously absent. Here we show that agents that presume that they are equal risks can share risks mutually beneficially, even if the probabilities of losses are unpredictable or genuinely uncertain. We show also that different risk aversions among pool members do not exclude mutually beneficial loss sharing at uncertainty. Sharing when individuals’ losses differ in probabilities or in amount may still make individuals better off. Our findings are related to the theory of the insurance firm, to the management of development risks, and to the theory of justice.JEL Classification: D8, G22, L10, L30     

Economic Darwinism: Who has the Best Probabilities?

Simulation evidence obtained within a Bayesian model of price-setting in a betting market, where anonymous gamblers queue to bet against a risk-neutral bookmaker, suggests that a gambler who wants to maximize future profits should trade on the advice of the analyst cum probability forecaster who records the best probability score, rather than the highest trading profits, during the preceding observation period. In general, probability scoring rules, specifically the log score and better known “Brier” (quadratic) score, are found to have higher probability of ranking rival analysts in predetermined “correct” order than either (i) the more usual method of counting categorical forecast errors (misclassifications), or (ii) an economic measure of forecasting success, described here as the “Kelly score” and defined as the trading profits accumulated by making log optimal bets (i.e. Kelly betting) against the market maker based on the probability forecasts of the analyst being assessed. This runs counter to the conventional wisdom that financial forecasts are more aptly evaluated in terms of their financial consequences than by an abstract non-monetary measure of statistical accuracy such as the number of misclassifications or a probability score.      

Rethinking electoral reform in New Zealand: the benefits of citizens' assemblies

In 2011, New Zealanders decided by referendum to retain the mixed member proportional representation voting system. This article investigates the benefits of including a deliberative, participatory process in electoral reform to encourage collective debate and an informed choice by voters. In the last decade, Canada and the Netherlands have used citizens' assemblies, a form of participatory democracy, for electoral reform. This paper argues that a similar process would have been appropriate and valuable for New Zealand. Moreover, the discussion highlights the value of citizens' assemblies for minorities who can be outvoted in a referendum. This is considered with specific reference to voters in the Māori seats who had much at stake in the electoral reform. In addition to the general benefit of citizens' assemblies for electoral reform, a New Zealand assembly would have allowed for collective deliberation that ensured the inclusion of the perspectives of voters in the Māori seats.     

Equality of recruitment: Gender parity in French National Assembly elections

This research centers on the effects of the newly mandated gender parity on French electoral politics. We examine the results from the 2002 National Assembly elections. Our findings suggest that this Parity Law contributed to the modest increase in the number of female deputies elected to the National Assembly, but that the electoral success rate for female candidates declined from the previous elections in 1997. This result appears to have been affected by two factors: (1) a greater-than-average number of female candidates were affiliated with the Socialist party—the party that lost control of the government in this election and (2) many female candidates were running against male incumbents. Multivariate analysis suggests that, after these two factors are controlled for, female candidates were more likely to be elected in open seat contests than were male candidates. Preliminary analysis of roll call votes in the two most recent (1997–2004) legislative sessions suggests that party, not gender, is the main determinant of voting behavior.     

The potential of iterative voting to solve the separability problem in referendum elections

In referendum elections, voters are often required to register simultaneous votes on multiple proposals. The separability problem occurs when a voter’s preferred outcome on one proposal depends on the outcomes of other proposals. This type of interdependence can lead to unsatisfactory or even paradoxical election outcomes, such as a winning outcome that is the last choice of every voter. Here we propose an iterative voting scheme that allows voters to revise their voting strategies based on the outcomes of previous iterations. Using a robust computer simulation, we investigate the potential of this approach to solve the separability problem.     

On the Representation of Beliefs by Probabilities

This paper explores two axiomatic structures of subjective expected utility assuming a finite state-space and state-dependent, connected, topological outcome-spaces. Building on the work of Karni and Schmeidler (1981) the analytical framework includes, in addition to the preference relation on acts, introspective preferences on hypothetical lotteries that are linked to the preference relation on acts by consistency axioms. The two models accommodate state-dependent preferences and yield subjective probabilities that correctly represent the decision-maker's beliefs. State-independent preferences are a special case.     

The effects of centralising electoral management board design*

The public administration of elections frequently fails. Variation in the performance of electoral management bodies around the world has been demonstrated, illustrated by delays in the count, inaccurate or incomplete voter registers, or severe queues at polling stations. Centralising the management of the electoral process has often been proposed as a solution. There has been little theorisation and no empirical investigations into the effects that centralising an already decentralised system would have, however. This article addresses this lacuna by conceptualising centralisation through the literature on bureaucratic control and discretion. It then empirically investigates the effects through a case study of centralisation in two UK referendums. Semi-structured interviews were used with those who devised the policy instrument and those who were subject to it. The introduction of central directions had some of the desired effects such as producing more consistent services and eliminating errors. It also had side effects, however, such as reducing economic efficiency in some areas and overlooking local knowledge. Furthermore, the reforms caused a decline of staff morale, job satisfaction and souring of relations amongst stakeholder organisations. The process of making organisational change therefore warrants closer attention by policy-makers and future scholarship on electoral integrity.     

Reimagining child welfare outcomes: Learning from Family Group Conferencing

This article reports on a qualitative study, which sought to retrospectively understand the contribution family group conferencing (FGC) makes to longer‐term outcomes for children at risk of entering State care and their families. Eleven case examples of FGC were studied from five local government areas across Scotland. Each example included the perspectives of different stakeholders in the process: children, their parents/carers and extended family (n = 32), and professionals (n = 28) involved with them. The study found a number of interconnecting issues in relation to FGC outcome contribution. First, the personal experience of process matters to the service user and his/her opinion of the outcomes they achieve. Second, what professionals do and how they do it can impact the outcomes of people requiring support. Thus, the relationship between professionals and service users is central to understanding why and how families achieve longer‐term outcomes. Finally, who defines outcomes and to what purpose is significant when understanding outcomes. This article reports on two sets of FGC outcomes identified within the study: personal and professional. Arguing for a more nuanced understanding of outcomes in child welfare this article begins to explore, and challenge, the manner in which outcomes are identified and valued in child welfare.     

Incumbent vulnerability and entry in gubernatorial elections: The case of former governors

The vulnerability hypothesis predicts strategic, quality candidates only challenge weak incumbents. House election studies support this hypothesis. State level analyses produce mixed results. We test whether incumbent vulnerability affects the entry of one kind of strategic actor – former governors. Former governors are an ideal test case. Having already served in the state's highest office, they represent the highest quality and perhaps most strategic candidates who run for state office. Our results show that performance in the previous election, one measure of incumbent vulnerability, does not affect former governor entry. However, incumbent vulnerability measured as recent economic performance and number of other quality candidates appearing in a former governor's party primary does affect entry in general elections.     

The electoral consequences of alienation: Nonvoting and protest voting in the 1992 presidential race

This article focuses on the context of the 1992 national elections in order to determine why certain alienated individuals chose to stay home on election day while others responded by voting for a third party Presidential candidate. Two dimensions of alienation, internal and external political inefficacy, are linked to lower levels of voting, as is consistent with previous research on voting behavior. In addition, we find that, among those who voted, those individuals who expressed political cynicism or external inefficacy were more likely to vote for Ross Perot. We conclude that, while many alienated individuals do not vote, the Perot candidacy in 1992 led certain alienated individuals to engage in “protest” voting by casting their vote for an unlikely winner in the presidential race.     

Single Case Probabilities and the Social World: The Application of Popper's Propensity Interpretation

This paper is a re-examination of Popper's propensity interpretation of probability in respect of its potential methodological value in social science. A long standing problem for the (standard) frequency interpretation of probability is that whilst it is able to treat both aggregate and individual phenomena as having measurable properties, it cannot explain the ontological relationship between such concrete individual cases and aggregates. Popper's interpretation treats single cases as both real, but also as realisations of a propensity to occur. The frequency and propensity interpretations are compared and whilst some common objections raised must be upheld, they do not devalue the importance of the propensity interpretation as at least a metaphysical basis for probabilistic claims in social science. However the value of the approach may also lie in its methodological potential. Here I sugest that single case probabilities must be analysed in terms of the anterior probabilities of prior constituent events. In this I move beyond Popper's own programme, but suggest that such a move is theoretically compatible with recent complexity approaches in social science and goes some way toward meeting anti-naturalist concerns about intentionality.     

Parental mental health: disruptions to parenting and outcomes for children

The association between parental mental health problems and negative outcomes for children has been long known. This paper addresses three issues in relation to this. First, the scale of the problem is outlined, in terms of both the prevalence of mental health problems in parents and the likelihood of children exhibiting negative outcomes in these circumstances. Secondly, the specificity, or lack of it, of particular outcomes in the child in relation to different parental mental health problems is explored. Thirdly, the paper focuses on the importance of disruptions to parenting as a mechanism in the transmission of mental health problems to negative impacts on the child. Examples are given of how parenting is disrupted in non‐clinical community populations, and the subsequent impacts on the child. The case is made for the preventative importance of parenting and family support in mediating between parental mental health problems and negative impacts on the child.     

Explaining third-party success in gubernatorial elections: The cases of Alaska, Connecticut, Maine and Minnesota

In the 1990s alone, four states elected third-party governors. Walter Hickel of Alaska and Lowell Weicker of Connecticut were elected in 1990. Maine elected Angus King in 1994. And Jesse Ventura was elected governor of Minnesota in 1998. In this article, I examine these four cases in an attempt to identify the factors that contribute to third-party electoral success. I apply two models to these cases. The first model, “alternative culture,” holds that certain voters—regardless of specific context—are predisposed to support alternative candidates. The second model, “institutional context,” looks at factors such as name recognition, resources, and access to media as explanations of third-party success. I find that except for the influence of “partisan independence,” there is little evidence to support the persistence of an alternative culture of third-party voting. Rather, these four cases are linked by a context particularly favorable to these alternative candidates.