Informatization, voter turnout and income inequality

In recent years, voter turnout has been decreasing in most industrial countries, and about 40% of all electors abstain from voting. This may affect income inequality and the GDP growth rate through a redistribution policy determined by majority voting. In this paper, we explore the reasons for this continuing decrease in voter turnout and assess its social costs. We conclude that informatization lowers voter turnout by generating an information overload, and that a decrease in voter turnout lowers GDP growth by limiting income redistribution.      

Wahlbeteiligung im Lebensverlauf

This empirical investigation attempts to answer the question whether the change in voter turnout at the German general elections is related to cohort specific voting behavior of political generations, also taking into account age and period effects. Furthermore, it is asked whether the decline of voter turnout after the 1972 German general election is a statistical artefact of official statistics. Both questions are investigated with retrospective life history data about voting behavior of individuals from several birth cohorts. It is analyzed that the voter turnout has really declined in the 1980s because of the increased number of determined non-voters. There is evidence that the changes of the voting behavior of younger individuals in successive political generations results in the social change of the general voter turnout. While the effects of the citizens’ age on the voter turnout are minimal for the whole period between 1953 and 1987, the impact of period effects are less important for the historical change of voter turnout as often assumed.     

Organized labor and electoral participation in American national elections

I consider the role of unions in fostering electoral participation in the U.S. Using aggregate and individual data, I argue that turnout varies directly with the organizational strength of unions, not only through their ability to mobilize their own members per se, but also, and more importantly, through their ability to affect the rate of participation of voters in general. My results imply that unionization helps explain much of the post-1960 decline in voter turnout. The magnitude of the relationship is demonstrated to rival that of more conventional determinants of voter turnout such as education.     

Gender and social conformity: Do men and women respond differently to social pressure to vote?

In this paper, we re-analyze data from a large-scale field experiment (N = 344,084) on voter turnout in order to determine whether men and women respond differently to social pressure aimed at voter mobilization. To date, there have been mixed results regarding the interaction between a person’s gender and receptivity to social influence. On the whole, our analyses confirm prior findings that social pressure increases voter turnout but uncover little to no evidence of gender differences in receptivity to social pressure cues in the context of political participation.     

Soziale Schichtung Und Delinquenz

The frequently posited relationship between social class and criminal behaviour is dubious in theory and lacking empirical evidence. Based upon the economic theory of crime by Gary S. Becker we present an extended model which integrates the effects of the individuals’ class position on their subjective evaluations of costs, utility, and the probability of being caught. Additionally, we take into account selective incentives (social opportunities) and the internalization of social norms concerning conformity (framing of the social situation) depending on social class. We test the model for two offences: shop-lifting and tax-evasion. The source of data is the German General Social Survey (ALLBUS) for the years 1990 and 2000. The empirical results support the theoretical model. There is no general relationship between the individuals’ social status and their incentives for criminal behaviour. However, the types of offences committed are affected by the social status. Subjective expected probability of failure or success is more important than fear of punishment or the expected utility. Internalized norms decrease the probability of committing a crime.     

Reconsidering Explanations for Regional Convergence in Voter Registration and Turnout in the United States, 1956–20001

In the United States, voter turnout rates have been declining for the last 4 decades; however, this pattern differs substantially by region. Southern states have actually seen a fairly dramatic increase in turnout since the 1950s and currently the South and non‐South have almost identical rates of voter registration and turnout. Using a series of Heckman probit models, which examine voting as a two‐step process of registering and casting a vote, we systematically investigate differences in rates of registering and voting across regions and test explanations for regional convergence over time. Using data from the American National Election Studies (1956–2000), we find that regional convergence in voter registration is primarily due to the removal of formal and informal barriers to registration and voting in the South and declining efforts to mobilize potential voters in the non‐South. In addition, we find some fairly distinct differences in which predictors are important to each stage of the voting process; for example, race is a better predictor of registering to vote than voting. We conclude with a discussion of the implications of these results.     

Conformity to implicit social pressure: the role of political identity

Although studies have shown that implicit social cues, such as images of watchful eyes, can elicit prosocial behavior, little research to date has examined individual differences in people’s susceptibility to such subtle social cues. For example, individuals with a conservative ideology typically value social conformity, obedience, and adherence to social norms more than liberals. To examine partisan heterogeneity, we analyze data from two large randomized field experiments on voting behavior. Results suggest that the impact of eyespots on voter mobilization is indeed likely driven by political identity, with a significant effect for Republicans but not Independents or Democrats. These findings are consistent with an emerging line of research revealing individual differences in how susceptible humans are to implicit social cues.     

A second look at partisanship’s effect on receptivity to social pressure to vote

Social pressure can exert a powerful, but sometimes counterproductive, influence on compliance with the social norm of voting. Scholars have tested several implicit social pressure techniques to reduce negative reactions to these methods. Among the most innovative is the use of ‘watching eyes’ in voter mobilization messages. Using three large randomized field experiments, this study attempts to reproduce Panagopoulos and van der Linden’s finding that political partisanship moderates the effect of watching eyes messages on voter turnout. Our findings diverge from previous findings statistically and substantively and indicate partisanship may have limited influence on the effectiveness of watching eyes in mobilizing voters.     

Institutional Access,Residential Segregation,and Urban Black Homicide*

Sociologists have frequently cited the importance of the local institutional base for bolstering social organization and control, and ultimately reducing crime rates. Local noneconomic institutions may be particularly relevant to controlling urban Black crime rates, because in the face of limited access to the legitimate labor force, access to institutions such as churches and civic organizations helps to extend social networks, increase civic engagement, transmit mainstream norms, and provide a forum from which to address community problems. This analysis examines the links between measures of access to such noneconomic institutions and Black homicide rates for a sample of large urban areas circa 1990. The results indicate that after controlling for socioeconomic disadvantage, racial inequality and various other relevant measures, institutional access is negatively associated with Black homicide rates. However, this violence constraining impact appears to be most dramatic in urban areas where Blacks are most highly segregated from Whites. Implications of these results are discussed.     

Good Excuses: Understanding Who Votes With An Improved Turnout Question

Utilizing studies which validate voter turnout, previous researchershave been able to identify a strong tendency for individualsto report voting when they in fact did not. In this article,we assess the effectiveness of a new turnout question on reducingvoter over-reporting in the National Election Study. Providingrespondents with socially acceptable excuses for not voting,we found that this alternate question significantly reducesthe over-reporting of turnout in the 2002 National ElectionStudy by about 8 percentage points. Moreover, our analysis revealsthat with the new question wording, estimates of the turnoutrate for those usually thought to be the least likely to voteare considerably lower than estimates using the traditionalquestion. Thus, not only did the experiment work to significantlyreduce over-reporting, the new question provides deeper insightsinto the voting behavior of the American electorate that hasimplications for both scholars and reformers.     

A Model of Parental Demand for Child Labor with High Fertility Norms

This paper sets out a model to examine how social norms regarding fertility influence parental choice between child labor and child's education. The parent is modeled as a social animal who derives utility from conformity with behavior of other members of the society. In deciding on the number of children, parents internalize the gain of utility from conformity to the norm for fertility. The model investigates the influence of the social element of conformity on the education decision for children and the prevalence of child labor. Social utility from conformity with exogenous social norms of high fertility increases the prevalence of child labor. This social norm can decrease the effectiveness of public policy aimed at encouraging education in place of child labor.     

Sexual Minorities’ Gender Norm Conformity and Sexual Satisfaction: The Mediating Effects of Sexual Communication,Internalized Stigma,and Sexual Narcissism

Objective: Sexual satisfaction has implications for well-being and may be related to gender norms. This study was conducted to understand the relationship between U.S. sexual minority (SM) individuals’ gender norm conformity and levels of sexual satisfaction, as well as examining the following potential mediators: sexual communication, internalized stigma, and sexual narcissism. Methods and Results: A path analysis (N?=?142) revealed that, for SM individuals, higher conformity to feminine norms was related to lower sexual satisfaction through higher internalized stigma. In addition, higher conformity to feminine norms for SM individuals was positively associated with sexual narcissism. Conclusion: Implications related to sexual satisfaction for SM individuals are discussed.     

Grassroots Mobilization and Voter Turnout in 2004

Voter turnout increased sharply in 2004. At the same time, 2004marked a change in campaign strategy, as both presidential campaignsand allied organizations placed unprecedented emphasis on votermobilization. This article attempts to assess the degree towhich grassroots mobilization efforts contributed to the surgein voter turnout. We conclude that although grassroots effortsgenerated millions of additional votes, they probably accountfor less than one-third of the observed increase in turnout.Increased turnout in 2004 primarily reflects the importancethat voters accorded the presidential contest.     

The True Electorate: A Cross-Validation of Voter Registration Files and Election Survey Demographics

I cross-validate the 2004 general election electorate's demographicprofile available from voter registration files, the media consortium'sNational Election Poll or exit poll, and the Current PopulationSurvey within selected states. I find voter files and CurrentPopulation Survey to be in general agreement, but the exit pollreports an electorate that is younger and composed of more minorities.All three confirm a pronounced pro-woman turnout gap.     

DIALECTICS OF NORMS IN MODERNIZATION

The frequently lamented weakening of wakening of social and law norms in modern societies is examined. After some concern about norm erosion in classical sociology, empirical social research on mass communication, industry, the military, and urban life soothed earlier concerns. Yet criminological evidence on late modern and rapidly modernizing societies, qualitative research in the sociology of culture, and quantitative lifecourse research attest to a weakening of normative standards during the second half of the twentieth century. Their findings are propelled by communitarian discourses. However, long-term historical research and some studies in the sociology of law demonstrate the growing strength of norms that regulate interpersonal violence. Contradictory evidence thus suggests replacing one-dimensional and unidirectional ideas about the impact of modernization on the strength of legal and social norms by a dialectic understanding. A set of hypotheses is developed, based on diverse literatures on organizations and the economy, culture of life course, political and social movements, and crime and the law. The hypotheses concern the dialectic consequences for the strength of norms, of the growing size of social units, growing participation in labor markets. transition of economic forms, formal rationalization of law, and the shift from a noninterventionist state to an interventionist welfare state.     

BUILDING A PROBABLE ELECTORATE FROM PREELECTION POLLS: A TWO-STAGE APPROACH

Prominent among sources of nonsampling error in preelectionpolls are different methods of screening likely voters. Buildingon past research, we use National Election Studies data to constructa simple, practical, two-stage model of voter turnout. We comparethe performance of this model to alternative estimators, usingdata from the 1988 and 1992 presidential elections. By allowingfor truncated interviews with up to 20 percent of respondents,our two-stage model provides turnout estimates that are slightlymore accurate and significantly less expensive than traditionalmethods for screening likely voters.     

DEVELOPMENT AND CRIME: A Cross-National, Time-Series Analysis of Competing Models

Current cross-national research indicates that economic development affects crime rates. Two competing models, the Durkheimian and opportunity, claim to explain this relationship. However, the research evaluating their adequacy is flawed. It attempts to assess the effects of change using cross-sectional designs and variables that measure level of, rather than actual change in, economic development.
This study evaluates these competing explanatory models by analyzing the effects of level of development and rate of growth on crime rates. The findings indicate that both affect the rate and type of crime in ways that refute the Durkheimian and only offer qualified support for the opportunity model. A pooled time-series, cross-sectional analysis that controls for possible spurious factors reveals interesting nonlinear effects that allow further specification of the crime and development relationship.     

Groups or Gatherings? Sources of Political Engagement in 19th Century American Cities

There is broad agreement that citizen participation is critical for successful democracy. Recently, scholars have linked such political participation with the notion of social capital—community-level resources, such as trust, norms, and networks, that foster collective action. Much uncertainty remains regarding the sources of social capital, however. Here we examine two different features of community life that are believed to nurture social capital, and political participation in turn: public venues where relative strangers can meet anonymously, socialize, and share information and opinions (i.e., venues for informal interaction); and venues for organized exchange between familiars, such as voluntary organizations and social clubs. Using quantitative data from America's largest cities at the end of the 19th century, we examine the relationship between both supposed sources of social capital and respective rates of voter participation. We find little support for the role of informal interaction in fostering an active and engaged citizenry. We do, however, find evidence that citizen participation was related to some types of associationalism (or organized exchange). In particular, associations that fostered high levels of mutual interdependence among members seemed the most strongly linked to higher levels of political participation.     

Economic structure and crime: The case of Japan

Despite a high rate of industrialization, crime rates in Japan have declined overall since World War II. This is inconsistent with the “Durkheimian-Modernization” respective which argues that rapid socioeconomic changes increase crime rates. Although a number of qualitative studies investigate possible reasons for Japan's low and declining crime rates, few employ quantitative analyses with aggregate data. This paper systematically examines the impact of poverty, economic inequality and unemployment, on homicide, robbery and larceny rates among the 47 prefectures in Japan. The multiple regression analysis reveals a significant positive relationship between unemployment rates and homicide and robbery and between the degree of economic inequality and larceny. The poverty level is significantly and positively correlated only with homicide, but this relationship vanishes when controls for unemployment rate, the percent of young males and the level of industrialization are introduced. The implications of these findings for Japanese economic policy are discussed.