A generalized binomial distribution

A new generalization of the binomial distribution is introduced that allows dependence between trials, nonconstant probabilities of success from trial to trial, and which contains the usual binomial distribution as a special case. Along with the number of trials and an initial probability of ‘success’, an additional parameter that controls the degree of correlation between trials is introduced. The resulting class of distributions includes the binomial, unirnodal distributions, and bimodal distributions. Formulas for the moments, mean, and variance of this distribution are given along with a method for fitting the distribution to sample data.     

On binomial and circular binomial distributions of orderk forl-overlapping success runs of lengthk

The number ofl-overlapping success runs of lengthk inn trials, which was introduced and studied recently, is presently reconsidered in the Bernoulli case and two exact formulas are derived for its probability distribution function in terms of multinomial and binomial coefficients respectively. A recurrence relation concerning this distribution, as well as its mean, is also obtained. Furthermore, the number ofl-overlapping success runs of lengthk inn Bernoulli trials arranged on a circle is presently considered for the first time and its probability distribution function and mean are derived. Finally, the latter distribution is related to the first, two open problems regarding limiting distributions are stated, and numerical illustrations are given in two tables. All results are new and they unify and extend several results of various authors on binomial and circular binomial distributions of orderk.     

A Simple Distribution for the Sum of Correlated,Exchangeable Binary Data

This article describes a generalization of the binomial distribution. The closed form probability function for the probability of k successes out of n correlated, exchangeable Bernoulli trials depends on the number of trials and its two parameters: the common success probability and the common correlation. The distribution is derived under the assumption that the common correlation between all pairs of Bernoulli trials remains unchanged conditional on successes in all completed trials. The distribution was developed to model bond defaults but may be suited to biostatistical applications involving clusters of binary data encountered in repeated measurements or toxicity studies of families of organisms. Maximum likelihood estimates for the parameters of the distribution are found for a set of binary data from a developmental toxicity study on litters of mice.     

A generalization of the binomial distribution

This paper presents a new departure in the generalization of the binomial distribution by adopting the assumption that the underlying Bernoulli trials take on the values α or β where α < β, rather than the conventional values 0 or 1. The adoption of this more general assumption renders the binomial distribution a four-parameter distribution of the form B(n,p,α,β), and requires the generalization of Romanovsky's (1923) reduction formula for central moments. This paper assesses the usefulness of B(n,p,α,β), and its reduction formula, in the numerical analysis of two problems of interest to decision theorists.     

On the differences of two generalized negative binomial variates

The generalized negative binomial (GNB) distribution was defined by Jain and Consul (SIAM J. Appl. Math., 21 (1971)) and was obtained as a particular family of Lagrangian distributions by Consul and Shenton (SIAM J. Appl. Math., 23 (1973)). Consul and Shenton also gave the probability generating function (p.g.f.) and proved many properties of the GNBD. Consul and Gupta (SIAM J. Appl. Math., 39 (1980)) proved that the parameter β must be either zero or 1≤ β ≤ θ^-1 for the GNBD to be a true probability distribution and proved some other properties. Numerous applications and properties of this model have been studied by various researchers. Considering two independent GNB variates X and Y, with parameters (m,β,θ) and (n,β,θ) respectively, the probability distribuition of D = Y-X and its p.g.f. and cumulant generating function have been obtained. A recurrence relation between the cumulants has been established and the first four cumulants, β₁ and β₂ have been derived. Also some moments of the absolute difference |Y-X| have been obtained.     

Better approximate confidence intervals for a binomial parameter

This paper discusses five methods for constructing approximate confidence intervals for the binomial parameter Θ, based on Y successes in n Bernoulli trials. In a recent paper, Chen (1990) discusses various approximate methods and suggests a new method based on a Bayes argument, which we call method I here. Methods II and III are based on the normal approximation without and with continuity correction. Method IV uses the Poisson approximation of the binomial distribution and then exploits the fact that the exact confidence limits for the parameter of the Poisson distribution can be found through the x² distribution. The confidence limits of method IV are then provided by the Wilson-Hilferty approximation of the x². Similarly, the exact confidence limits for the binomial parameter can be expressed through the F distribution. Method V approximates these limits through a suitable version of the Wilson-Hilferty approximation. We undertake a comparison of the five methods in respect to coverage probability and expected length. The results indicate that method V has an advantage over Chen's Bayes method as well as over the other three methods.     

Confidence regions for two proportions from independent negative binomial distributions

The negative binomial distribution offers an alternative view to the binomial distribution for modeling count data. This alternative view is particularly useful when the probability of success is very small, because, unlike the fixed sampling scheme of the binomial distribution, the inverse sampling approach allows one to collect enough data in order to adequately estimate the proportion of success. However, despite work that has been done on the joint estimation of two binomial proportions from independent samples, there is little, if any, similar work for negative binomial proportions. In this paper, we construct and investigate three confidence regions for two negative binomial proportions based on three statistics: the Wald (W), score (S) and likelihood ratio (LR) statistics. For large-to-moderate sample sizes, this paper finds that all three regions have good coverage properties, with comparable average areas for large sample sizes but with the S method producing the smaller regions for moderate sample sizes. In the small sample case, the LR method has good coverage properties, but often at the expense of comparatively larger areas. Finally, we apply these three regions to some real data for the joint estimation of liver damage rates in patients taking one of two drugs.     

The search for submarine pingos in the Beaufort Sea: An unusual application of the binomial distribution

Almost all statistical estimation problems involving the binomial distribution occur with the number of independent Bernoulli trials, n, being a known parameter and the probability of success, p, being unknown. Applications in which n is unknown and p is known are extremely rare. One such application to a real problem in the physical sciences is the subject of this note.     

The binomial failure rate mixture model for common cause failure data from the nuclear industry

A model for the lifetime of a system is considered in which the system is susceptible to simultaneous failures of two or more components, the failures having a common external cause. Three sets of discrete failure data from the US nuclear industry are examined to motivate and illustrate the model derivation: they are for motor-operated valves, cooling fans and emergency diesel generators. To achieve target reliabilities, these components must be placed in systems that have built-in redundancy. Consequently, multiple failures due to a common cause are critical in the risk of core meltdown. Vesely has offered a simple methodology for inference, called the binomial failure rate model: external events are assumed to be governed by a Poisson shock model in which resulting shocks kill X out of m system components, X having a binomial distribution with parameters ( m , p ), 0< p <1. In many applications the binomial failure rate model fits failure data poorly, and the model has not typically been applied to probabilistic risk assessments in the nuclear industry. We introduce a realistic generalization of the binomial failure rate model by assigning a mixing distribution to the unknown parameter p . The distribution is generally identifiable, and its unique nonparametric maximum likelihood estimator can be obtained by using a simple iterative scheme.     

Confidence interval estimation for negative binomial group distribution

Negative binomial group distribution was proposed in the literature which was motivated by inverse sampling when considering group inspection: products are inspected group by group, and the number of non-conforming items of a group is recorded only until the inspection of the whole group is finished. The non-conforming probability p of the population is thus the parameter of interest. In this paper, the confidence interval construction for this parameter is investigated. The common normal approximation and exact method are applied. To overcome the drawbacks of these commonly used methods, a composite method that is based on the confidence intervals of the negative binomial distribution is proposed, which benefits from the relationship between negative binomial distribution and negative binomial group distribution. Simulation studies are carried out to examine the performances of our methods. A real data example is also presented to illustrate the application of our method.     

A Bayesian non‐inferiority test for two independent binomial proportions

In drug development, non‐inferiority tests are often employed to determine the difference between two independent binomial proportions. Many test statistics for non‐inferiority are based on the frequentist framework. However, research on non‐inferiority in the Bayesian framework is limited. In this paper, we suggest a new Bayesian index τ = P(π₁ > π₂ ? Δ₀ | X₁,X₂), where X₁ and X₂ denote binomial random variables for trials n₁ and n₂, and parameters π₁ and π₂, respectively, and the non‐inferiority margin is Δ₀ > 0. We show two calculation methods for τ, an approximate method that uses normal approximation and an exact method that uses an exact posterior PDF. We compare the approximate probability with the exact probability for τ. Finally, we present the results of actual clinical trials to show the utility of index τ. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Two normal approximations to the binomial distribution

Two new normal approximations are proposed for the cumulative binomial distribution when the mean-is reasonably large. Their adequacy is compared with that of certain well-known approximations- The first is recommended for its simplicity and accuracy relative to the standard and Gram-Charlier approximations. The second Is shown to be more accurate than all known approximations for a certain range of the probability of success.     

An optimal design of CUSUM control charts for binomial counts

The Shewhart p-chart or np-chart is commonly used for monitoring the counts of non-conforming items which are usually well modelled by a binomial distribution with parameters n and p where n is the number of items inspected each time and p is the process fraction of non-conforming items produced. It is well known that the Shewhart chart is not sensitive to small shifts in p. The cumulative sum (CUSUM) chart is a far more powerful charting procedure for detecting small shifts in p and only marginally less powerful in detecting large shifts in p. The choice of chart parameters of a Shewhart chart is well documented in the quality control literature. On the other hand, very little has been done for the more powerful CUSUM chart, possibly due to the fact that the run length distribution of a CUSUM chart is much harder to compute. An optimal design strategy is given here which allows the chart parameters of an optimal CUSUM chart to be determined easily. Optimal choice of n and the relationship between the CUSUM chart and the sequential probability ratio test are also investigated.     

An information-theoretic approach to incorporating prior information in binomial sampling

The incorporation of prior information about θ, where θ is the success probability in a binomial sampling model, is an essential feature of Bayesian statistics. Methodology based on information-theoretic concepts is introduced which (a) quantifies the amount of information provided by the sample data relative to that provided by the prior distribution and (b) allows for a ranking of prior distributions with respect to conservativeness, where conservatism refers to restraint of extraneous information about θ which is embedded in any prior distribution. In effect, the most conservative prior distribution from a specified class (each member o f which carries the available prior information about θ) is that prior distribution within the class over which the likelihood function has the greatest average domination. The most conservative prior distributions from five different families of prior distributions over the interval (0,1) including the beta distribution are determined and compared for three situations: (1) no prior estimate of θ is available, (2) a prior point estimate or θ is available, and (3) a prior interval estimate of θ is available. The results of the comparisons not only advocate the use of the beta prior distribution in binomial sampling but also indicate which particular one to use in the three aforementioned situations.     

A modal method for generating binomial variables

The paper considers the problem of generating binomial random variables when the parameters n and p may vary from call to call (as in the generation of multinomial random variables), A new algorithm, based on sequentially searching alternately down and up from the modal probability, is introduced. This is easy to program and requires no special library facilities It is suitable for microcomputers as well as mainframes Some sample timings are given for a FORTRAN 7 7 implementation     

On approximating point spread distributions

We discuss some properties of the point spread distribution, defined as the distribution of the difference of two independent binomial random variables with the same parameter n including exact and approximate probabilities and related optimization issues. We use various approximation techniques for different distributions, special functions, and analytic, combinatorial and symbolic methods, such as multi-summation techniques. We prove that in case of unequal success rates, if these rates change with their difference kept fixed and small, and n is appropriately bounded, then the point spread distribution only slightly changes for small point differences. We also prove that for equal success rates p, the probability of a tie is minimized if p=1/2. Numerical examples are included for the case with n=12.     

Goodness-of-fit tests for binomial AR(1) processes

The binomial AR(1) model describes a nonlinear process with a first-order autoregressive (AR(1)) structure and a binomial marginal distribution. To develop goodness-of-fit tests for the binomial AR(1) model, we investigate the observed marginal distribution of the binomial AR(1) process, and we tackle its autocorrelation structure. Motivated by the family of power-divergence statistics for handling discrete multivariate data, we derive the asymptotic distribution of certain categorized power-divergence statistics for the case of a binomial AR(1) process. Then we consider Bartlett's formula, which is widely used in time series analysis to provide estimates of the asymptotic covariance between sample autocorrelations, but which is not applicable when the underlying process is nonlinear. Hence, we derive a novel Bartlett-type formula for the asymptotic distribution of the sample autocorrelations of a binomial AR(1) process, which is then applied to develop tests concerning the autocorrelation structure. Simulation studies are carried out to evaluate the size and power of the proposed tests under diverse alternative process models. Several real examples are used to illustrate our methods and findings.     

ON THE SEQUENTIAL ESTIMATION OF THE PROBABILITY OF SUCCESS

Let x₁ x₂, x₃,be a sequence of independent Bernoulli trials with common success probability p . We consider the problem of estimation of p using a sequential Bayes theoretic approach when the cost per observation is c , and the loss of estimation is squared error loss. A heuristic procedure is suggested, a bound on its Bayes risk is computed, and asymptotic results are exhibited.     

Bayes estimation of the binomial parameter n

Bayes estimation of the binomial parameter n based on a general prior distribution for n is studied. As special cases improper prior and Poisson prior (which is a natural choice) are considered, and formulae for the marginal and posterior distributions are obtained. It is shown that the assumption of improper priors in both p and n leads to implausible results.     

On the three-dimensional negative binomial distribution

We consider a particular generalization of the negative binomial distribution to the multivariate case obtained through a specification of the probability generating function as the negative power of a certain polynomial. The probability function itself has previously been derived for the two-dimensional case only, and inference in the multivariate negative binomial distribution has been restricted to the use of composite likelihood based on one- or two-dimensional marginals. In this article, we derive the three-dimensional probability function as a sum with all terms positive and study the range of possible parameter values. We illustrate the use of the three-dimensional distribution for modeling three correlated SAR images.