Parents’ Workplace Situation and Fathers’ Parental Leave Use

This study examines how the workplace situation of both parents affects fathers’ parental leave use. We used parental leave‐taking register data from Statistics Sweden for dual‐earner couples who resided in Stockholm and had children in 1997 (n= 3,755). The results indicate that fathers shorten their parental leave if their workplaces are such that one can expect leave to be associated with high costs and that fathers appear to be influenced by the leave use of other fathers in the workplace. Mothers’ workplace situation appears to be less important for fathers’ leave use. The results point to the importance of actors other than parents (such as employers) for understanding the gender‐based division of child care.     

A Twin Study of Objective and Subjective Pubertal Timing and Peer Influence on Risk‐Taking

This study used a behavioral genetic design to test whether three measures of pubertal timing moderated peer influence on risk‐taking in a sample of 248 female adolescent twin pairs (M_age = 16.0, SD = 1.5) from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health. Peer influence was operationalized as the quasi‐causal association between girls' self‐reported risk‐taking and the risk‐taking reported by their friends. Girls with earlier ages at menarche and who perceived themselves as more developed than peers were more susceptible to peer influence on risk‐taking. However, age‐standardized ratings of body changes did not moderate peer influence. This study highlights distinctions between multiple measures of pubertal timing, using an innovative synthesis of genetically informative data and peer nomination data.     

MARCH MADNESS? UNDERREACTION TO HOT AND COLD HANDS IN NCAA BASKETBALL

The hot hand bias is the widely documented bias toward overestimation of positive serial correlation in sequential events. We test for the hot hand bias in a novel real‐world context, the seeding of National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA) basketball tournament teams. That is, we examine whether teams that perform relatively well heading into “March Madness” are seeded too high, and/or teams with poor recent performance are seeded too low. The seeds are determined by a 10‐member committee that only has implicit incentives, but these incentives are still substantial as the committee's decisions are highly scrutinized by the media, fans, and other stakeholders. We find that, contra the hot hand bias, the committee underreacts to signals of momentum heading into the NCAA tournament. Various results indicate this behavior can be attributed to both: (1) inattention to relatively detailed information indicating momentum; and (2) under‐appreciation of the predictive value of this information. Betting markets incorporate this information efficiently, but neglect some additional information that is predictive of winning NCAA tournament games but not of beating the spread. We note that the NCAA tournament has been highly popular and lucrative partly due to the “madness” (high frequency of wins by lower‐seeded teams), which the bias we document contributes to, making the persistence of bias less surprising. (JEL D83, L83)     

ACADEMIC PROBATION,STUDENT PERFORMANCE,AND STRATEGIC COURSE‐TAKING

We use a regression discontinuity design to study how academic probation affects outcomes and course‐taking behaviors at a large public university in the United States. Consistent with past work, students placed on probation improve their grade point average (GPA) in the subsequent semester. We document that part of this GPA improvement is attributable to strategic course‐taking, and there is significant heterogeneity in these behaviors across race. Non‐minority students placed on probation attempt fewer credits, easier courses, and are more likely to withdraw from courses in the following term. In contrast, underrepresented minorities exhibit few of these behaviors, consistent with past work that suggests black and Hispanic students are less likely to possess helpful institutional knowledge and use available support systems such as academic counseling. (JEL I20, I23)     

Infant‐directed speech to infants at risk for dyslexia: A novel cross‐dyad design

When mothers speak to infants at risk for developmental dyslexia, they do not hyperarticulate vowels in their infant‐directed speech (IDS). Here, we used an innovative cross‐dyad design to investigate whether the absence of vowel hyperarticulation in IDS to at‐risk infants is a product of maternal infant‐directed behavior or of infants’ parent‐directed cues. Interactions between mothers and infants who were at risk or not at risk for dyslexia were recorded in three conditions: when mothers interacted with (a) their own infants, (b) infants who were not their own but of the same risk status, and (c) infants who were not their own and of the opposite risk status. This design revealed both infant and parent effects. Mothers of not‐at‐risk infants hyperarticulated vowels significantly more when speaking to not‐at‐risk than to at‐risk infants. In contrast, mothers of at‐risk infants hyperarticulated vowels significantly less than NAR mothers, and this was irrespective of infant status. Mothers of not‐at‐risk infants thus adjusted their IDS to the infant's risk status, while mothers of at‐risk infants did not. We suggest that IDS is determined reciprocally by characteristics of both partners in the dyad: Both infant and maternal factors are essential for the vowel hyperarticulation component of IDS.     

Differential Behavioral and Neural Profiles in Youth With Conduct Problems During Risky Decision‐Making

Neuroimaging work has examined neural processes underlying risk taking in adolescence, yet predominantly in low‐risk youth. To determine whether we can extrapolate from current neurobiological models, this functional magnetic resonance imaging study investigated risk taking and peer effects in youth with conduct problems (CP; N = 19) and typically developing youth (TD; N = 25). Results revealed higher real‐life risk taking, lower risky decisions, and no peer effects on a risk‐taking task in CP youth. CP youth showed greater ventral striatum (VS) activity during safe than risky decisions, whereas TD youth showed greater VS activation during risky decisions. Differential VS activity explained higher real‐life risk taking in CP youth. Findings provide preliminary evidence that risk‐taking behavior in youth with CD problems is characterized by differential neural patterns.     

WHAT MOTIVATES POLITICAL PREFERENCES? SELF‐INTEREST,IDEOLOGY, AND FAIRNESS IN A LABORATORY DEMOCRACY

Substantial prior literature has established that subjects in laboratory experiments are typically willing to sacrifice their own well being to make financial allocations more equal among participants. We test the applicability of this result in an environment that contains some of the key contextual issues that are usually excluded from more abstract games, but which might be important in situations involving income redistribution. Our general finding is that votes for a redistributive tax are almost entirely in accordance with self‐interest: above‐average earners vote for low tax rates and below‐average earners vote for high tax rates. A measure of subjects' preferences for fairness or equality, their self‐reported economic ideology, is not directly related to their voting behavior in this experiment. Because the ideology measure should be correlated with any intrinsic preferences regarding inequality aversion, we conclude that any preferences for fairness or inequality that our subjects possess are not strong enough to overcome self‐interest in this context. We do, however, find evidence for a possible indirect effect of ideology on choice behavior in that more conservative subjects tend to be more responsive to their self‐interest than the more liberal subjects. (JEL C90, D63)     

ON THE OPTIMAL REALIGNMENT OF A CONTEST: THE CASE OF COLLEGE FOOTBALL

This article examines the relationship between demand and scheduling in college football. We first derive two different metrics for team quality, and then use those metrics to see how they impact attendance. We find that there is a positive interaction between the quality of the teams. Then various simulations are run to see how attendance would change under different scheduling scenarios. If teams are put into conferences based on the team quality measures, the average per game attendance only rises 1–2%. This is true if 1‐year or 10‐year quality measures are used. However, our simulation suggests that this effect would be more than offset, mainly because schools with larger capacity would play fewer home games and so aggregate attendance would fall. We discuss whether this effect would be mitigated by capacity adjustments in the longer term. (JEL L83, Z20, C78)     

Associations between Croatian Adolescents’ Use of Sexually Explicit Material and Risky Sexual Behavior: A Latent Growth Curve Modeling Approach

Objectives: The aim of this biobehavioral longitudinal study was to assess the association between sexually explicit material (SEM) use and risky sexual behavior among Croatian adolescents (n?=?577). Methods: The data were collected over the period of 15?months. Conditional dual-domain latent growth modeling was used. Results: Male adolescents’ initial SEM use, but not subsequent growth, was related to changes in sexual risk taking over the observed period. Among female adolescents, SEM use and sexual risk taking were significantly related only at baseline. Conclusions: Our findings point to gender-specific association between adolescents’ SEM use and risky sexual behavior.     

SIMULTANEOUS DECISION‐MAKING IN COMPETITIVE AND COOPERATIVE ENVIRONMENTS

We experimentally investigate simultaneous decision‐making in two contrasting environments: one that encourages competition (lottery contest) and one that encourages cooperation (public good game). We find that simultaneous participation in the public good game affects behavior in the contest, decreasing sub‐optimal overbidding. Contributions to the public good are not affected by participation in the contest. The direction of behavioral spillover is explained by differences in strategic uncertainty and path‐dependence across games. Our design allows us to compare preferences for cooperation and competition. We find that in early periods, there is a negative correlation between decisions in competitive and in cooperative environments. (JEL C72, C91)     

Sexual Partners and Contraceptive Use: A 16‐Year Prospective Study Predicting Abstinence and Risk Behavior

Antecedents and correlates of sexual behavior among 167 (46% female) adolescents were examined in this multi‐informant longitudinal study. Data were collected at birth through middle adolescence. Data on number of sexual partners and contraception use at age 16 defined sexual abstinence (SAs, n=73), high‐risk sexual behavior (HRTs, n=45) and low‐risk sexual behavior (LRTs, n=49) groups. Moffitt's (1993) antisocial behavior taxonomy, problem behavior theory ( Jessor & Jessor, 1977 ), social control theory (Hierschi), and a biosocial model ( Udry, 1988 ) guided expectations of differential group prediction. Variables from each of three developmental periods (<age 12, ages 12–13, age 16) were significantly associated with sexual behavior groups. The most salient factors that differentiated LRTs from SAs were physical maturation at age 13 and romantic relationship progression and alcohol use at age 16. Romantic relationship progression and drug use at age 16 differentiated HRTs from SAs.     

COMPETITIVE BALANCE MEASURES IN SPORTS LEAGUES: THE EFFECTS OF VARIATION IN SEASON LENGTH

Appropriate measurement of competitive balance is central to the economic analysis of professional sports leagues. We examine the distributional properties of the ratio of standard deviations (RSD) of points percentages, the most widely used measure of competitive balance in the sports economics literature, in comparison with other standard‐deviation‐based measures. Simulation methods are used to evaluate the effects of changes in season length on the distributions of competitive balance measures for different distributions of the strengths of teams in a league. The popular RSD measure performs as expected only in cases of perfect balance; if there is imbalance in team strengths, its distribution is sensitive to changes in season length. It is therefore not recommended for comparisons of competitive balance for different sports leagues with different numbers of teams and/or games played. (JEL L83, D63, C63)     

Hanging Out With the Right Crowd: Peer Influence on Risk‐Taking Behavior in Adolescence

Peer influence plays a key role in the increase of risk‐taking behavior during adolescence. However, its underlying processes are not fully understood. This study examined the effects of social norms, conveyed through peer advice, on risk‐taking behavior in 15‐ to 17‐year‐old adolescents (N = 76). Participants played a card‐guessing task alone and with online peer advice. Results showed that risk‐taking increased in the presence of peers. The results further showed that adolescents took into account the uncertainty associated with gambles, as well as the social norms conveyed by peers. Our findings suggest that peers are most influential in uncertain situations and demonstrate the value of a social norms approach in examining the processes underlying peer effects.     

Risky Sexual Behavior among Arrested Adolescent Males: The Role of Future Expectations and Impulse Control

The current study evaluates two predictors of adolescent sexual risk‐taking, specifically whether impulse control or future expectations predict condom use and casual sex. We examine whether risky sex occurs among youth who tend to act without thinking about the future, or instead, youth who report low future expectations. We consider these relations longitudinally among a sample of sexually active justice‐involved adolescent males (N = 752, M age = 15.58) a group at heightened risk for sexual risk‐taking. We found that optimistic expectations for the future predict a higher likelihood of engaging in consistent condom use, whereas high impulse control is related to a lower likelihood of casual sex. Implications for intervention and research on positive sexual health are discussed.     

Linking Self‐Regulation and Risk Proneness to Risky Sexual Behavior: Pathways through Peer Pressure and Early Substance Use

The linkages between self‐regulation in childhood, risk proneness in early adolescence, and risky sexual behavior in mid‐adolescence were examined in a cohort of children (N=518) from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth. The possible mediating role of two early adolescent variables (substance use and negative peer pressure) was also examined. Self‐regulation was assessed by maternal report at ages 8–9, and risk proneness, comprising aspects of sensation seeking and decision making, was assessed by adolescent self‐report at ages 12–13. Structural equation models predicting risky sexual behavior at ages 16–17 indicated that self‐regulation operated partly through early adolescent substance use, whereas risk proneness operated through early adolescent substance use and negative peer pressure. The overall model did not differ significantly for boys and girls, although there were gender differences in the strength of particular paths. These long‐term longitudinal results support the importance of early self‐regulation and risk proneness in setting the stage for adolescent sexual risk taking and implicate substance use and negative peer pressure as processes through which risk proneness and poor self‐regulation lead to risky sexual behavior.     

AN EXPERIMENTAL STUDY ON THE RELEVANCE AND SCOPE OF NATIONALITY AS A COORDINATION DEVICE

In a period marked by extensive cross‐national interactions, nationality may present an important focal point that individuals coordinate on. This study uses an experimental approach to study whether nationality serves as a coordination device. We let subjects from Japan, Korea, and China play coordination games in which we vary information about their partner. The results show that nationality serves as a coordination device if common nationality is the only piece of information available to the subjects. The strength of this device is nationality‐dependent and diminishes when participants are provided with additional information about their partner. We also find that subjects are likely to coordinate on the Pareto‐dominant equilibrium at about the same rate if the partner has a different nationality than if nationality is unknown. (JEL C91, C92, Z1, Z13)     

Partnership Instability and Child Well‐Being

We use data from three waves of the Fragile Families Study (N= 2,111) to examine the prevalence and effects of mothers’ partnership changes between birth and age 3 on children’s behavior. We find that children born to unmarried and minority parents experience significantly more partnership changes than children born to parents who are married or White. Each transition is associated with a modest increase in behavioral problems, but a significant number of children experience 3 or more transitions. The association between instability and behavior is mediated by maternal stress and lower quality mothering. The findings imply that policies aimed at reducing maternal stress and partnership instability may improve child well‐being.     

Neural Correlates of Conflicting Social Influence on Adolescent Risk Taking

Adolescence is often characterized by heightened risk‐taking behaviors, which are shaped by social influence from parents and peers. However, little is understood about how adolescents make risky decisions under conflicting influence. The valuation system in the brain may elucidate how adolescents differentially integrate conflicting social information. Twenty‐eight adolescents (M_age = 12.7 years) completed a social influence task during a functional magnetic resonance imaging scan. Behaviorally, adolescents took more risks only when their parent endorsed risky decisions but not when their peers endorsed risky decisions. At the neural level, adolescents showed enhanced vmPFC–striatum functional connectivity when they made risky decisions that followed their parents’ risky decisions. Results suggest that parents’ decisions may guide youths’ risk‐taking behavior under conflicting influence.     

Socioeconomic Risk for Adolescent Cognitive Control and Emerging Risk‐Taking Behaviors

This study examined whether cognitive control mediated the association between socioeconomic status (SES; composite of income‐to‐needs ratio and parent education) and changes in risk‐taking behaviors. The sample included 167 dyads of adolescents (53% male; M_age = 14.07 years at Time 1) and their parents, assessed annually across 4 years. Parents reported socioeconomic variables at Time 1. Adolescents reported risk‐taking behaviors at Times 1 and 4, and completed a functional magnetic resonance imaging cognitive control task at Times 2 and 3. Lower SES was associated with lower behavioral (but not neural) cognitive control, which was associated with increases in risk‐taking behaviors. The findings suggest that elevated socioeconomic risk may compromise cognitive control which can cascade into maladaptive behaviors in adolescence.