EXCHANGE RATE REGIMES AND FISCAL DISCIPLINE: THE ROLE OF CAPITAL CONTROLS

How do exchange rate regimes influence fiscal discipline? This important question has typically been addressed exploiting the classic dichotomy of fixed versus flexible exchange rate regimes assuming perfect capital mobility. However, the role of capital controls cannot be neglected, particularly in developing countries. This paper analyzes the effects of capital controls on fiscal performance by focusing on dual exchange rate regimes. In a model in which the fiscal policy is endogenously determined by a nonbenevolent fiscal authority, dual regimes induce politicians to have higher fiscal deficits than under fixed and flexible regimes operating under perfect capital mobility. The model also shows this effect increases as fiscal authorities become more impatient. Dynamic panel regressions confirm that dual regimes lead to higher fiscal deficits than fixed and flexible regimes operating under unified rates. Using a dummy for pre‐electoral year as an indicator of fiscal authorities' shortsightedness, we also confirm that dual exchange rate has a more adverse effect on fiscal deficits as the authorities become more impatient. (JEL E50, E60, F31, F41)     

FINANCIAL FRICTIONS AND THE CHOICE OF EXCHANGE RATE REGIMES

This article provides a quantitative assessment of the role of financial frictions in the choice of exchange rate regimes. I use a two‐country model with sticky prices to compare different exchange rate arrangements. I simulate the model without and with borrowing constraints on investment, under monetary policy and technology shocks. I find that the stabilization properties of floating exchange rate regimes in face of foreign shocks are enhanced relative to fixed exchange rate in presence of credit frictions. In presence of symmetric and correlated shock, fixed exchange rates regimes can perform better than floating. This analysis can have important policy implications for accession countries joining the European Exchange Rate Mechanism II system and with high degrees of credit frictions. (JEL E3, E42, E44, E52, F41)     

THE ROLE OF NATIONAL DEBTS IN THE DETERMINATION OF THE YEN‐DOLLAR EXCHANGE RATE

An intertemporal optimization model is developed to examine the determinants of the long‐run nominal yen‐dollar exchange rate in the presence of national debts. The model is tested empirically using data from Japan and the United States. The proposed theoretical specification is well supported by the data and shows that relative national debts as well as monetary and financial factors may play a significant role in the determination of the long‐run nominal exchange rate between the yen and the dollar. (JEL F31, G11, G15)     

EXCHANGE RATE VOLATILITY: THE ROLE OF REAL SHOCKS AND THE VELOCITY OF MONEY

The effects of stochastic output shocks on the behavior of ex-change rates and nominal price levels is studied within the context of a two-country, cash-in-advance model. The analysis of this model, in contrast to the existing cash-in-advance literature, demonstrates that exchange rates can be more volatile than price levels even though agents' elasticity of substitution between foreign and domestic goods is greater than one-half. This possibility arises when output shocks are autocorrelated and are due to revisions in expectations that affect the terms of trade and/or the velocity of money.     

ACROSS TIME AND REGIMES: 212 YEARS OF THE US‐UK REAL EXCHANGE RATE

The behavior of the US‐UK real exchange rate over the period 1794–2005 is examined. This series includes five intervals of floating nominal exchange rates and four fixed exchange rate regime periods. A consistent pattern of higher real exchange rate volatility under floating nominal rates is shown. Over time, real exchange rate movements have increasingly been driven by movements in the nominal exchange rate rather than relative prices. The persistence of the real exchange rate has been considerably higher in the postwar period. (JEL F31, N20)     

THE REAL EXCHANGE RATE AND REAL INTEREST DIFFERENTIALS: THE ROLE OF THE TREND‐CYCLE DECOMPOSITION

We propose an alternative model and method to reconcile the puzzling feature in the relationship between the real exchange rate and real interest rate differentials. Our simple two‐country model with preset prices, along with firms' misperception about the future exchange rate, implies that the real exchange rate follows an ARIMA(0,1,p) process. This allows us to compute the exact Beveridge‐Nelson decomposition, which is a model‐consistent decomposition. In accordance with our model, unit roots in the real exchange rates are found; and statistical inference is partially found to be affirmative regarding the link between the real exchange rate detrended by the Beveridge‐Nelson decomposition and corresponding real interest differentials. (JEL F31, F41)     

THE TURKISH CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT

During the 2011–2015 period, Turkey's current account deficit as a percentage of gross domestic product (GDP) was one of the largest among the Organization for Economic Co‐operation and Development countries. In this paper, we examine if this deficit can be considered optimal using the Engel and Rogers's approach. In this framework, the current account of a country is determined by the expected discounted present value of its future share of world GDP relative to its current share. A country whose income is anticipated to rise relative to the rest of the world is expected to borrow now and run a current account deficit. Our findings suggest that Turkey's current account deficit in 2015 may be considered optimal if the Turkish economy's share in the world economy could continue to grow at rates similar to the past or to the predictions from professional forecasts. The same approach, however, indicates that the current account deficit in 2011, at its peak, was unlikely to be optimal. (JEL F32, F41, F43)     

COLLATERAL CONSTRAINTS AND THE CURRENT ACCOUNT: THEORY AND EVIDENCE

We investigate the impact of domestic financial frictions on the current account dynamics in Asian countries before and after the Asian financial crisis in 1997–1998 by introducing collateral constraints into the intertemporal current account approach. We examine six Asian countries. Before the crisis, collateral constraints significantly impact the current account in Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Thailand, but after the crisis, they do not. Our study shows that the impact of domestic financial frictions on the current account changes before and after a financial crisis. (JEL F32, F41)     

INTEREST RATE CEILINGS AND THE ROLE OF SECURITY AND COLLECTION REMEDIES IN LOAN CONTRACTS

Collateral or other security for personal loans and restrictions on creditor remedies for the collection of debts have varying effects on the price and quantity of credit which depend in turn on the level of interest rate ceilings. We report here on reduced-form equations of a supply-demand model estimated for five states with different interest rate restrictions. Interest rate ceilings limit how far lenders can raise loan rates to compensate for expected default losses but restrictions on collection remedies are generally associated with a higher interest rate.     

DIFFICULTIES IN HOLDING THE ROLE OF THE OBSERVER

This is the second of two linked papers on learning from infant and child observation in social work qualifying training (linked with Linnet McMahon & Steve Farnfield ‘Too Close In Or Too Far Out’). A former student reflects on her own observation experience. She considers the anxieties aroused and their containment, which became possible initially through reflection in the seminar group and ultimately through her internalisation of the reflective process. She discusses the value of her learning in subsequent practice in palliative care.     

DEMOCRACY IN THE INFORMATION AGE: THE ROLE OF THE FOURTH ESTATE IN CYBERSPACE

Journalism faces attack from two areas. From one direction it has to repel the pressures from its new owners, the media conglomerates, that have exacerbated the traditional problems of professional news. From another, new forms of political and government communication with the public are emerging. The Internet is displacing the journalistic role of providing information and interpretation for the citizen. This article assesses the future for journalism within the public sphere and asks whether journalism can perform its normative functions in the digital age.     

PROBLEMS OF THE POST-WAR PUBLIC: POST-WAR EDUCATION IN ENEMY COUNTRIES

"IT would be better," says Dr. Carr, "to let the children ofGermany and Japan grow up untutored than to have their mindstwisted and their virtue destroyed by the kind of teaching thathas been imposed on them in the past ten years." Few readerswill dispute the point. But what beyond that bare statementcan be proposed? In the last issue of the QUARTERLY, GregorZiemer suggested one program. In the pages which follow, WilliamG. Carr spells out a minimum plan for the international supervisionof education in enemy countries after the war. Dr. Carr is secretary of the Educational Policies Commissionand a veteran in the field of education for democracy. He representsa point of view which is gaining increasing support in thiscountry and in Britain.     

THE ROLE OF THE MENTAL HEALTH PROFESSIONAL IN CONTESTED CUSTODY:

Two different roles for mental health professionals in contested custody cases are presented. The first, the evaluator of competence model, is the more traditional one; its underpinnings are individually-oriented concepts: the clinician is a diagnostician and evaluator, making a recommendation to the court, and the family's input in the decision-making is minimal. The second role, a facilitator of change, comes out of family therapy theory; its focus is on helping the family to change and resolve their issues so that custody can be decided fairly: it is evaluative only secondarily, that is, if the family is unable to resolve the dilemma themselves. When working with contested custody cases, which are really unresolved family problems, the second approach is more promising.     

THE WELFARE EFFECTS OF DISTRIBUTION REGULATIONS IN OECD COUNTRIES

This article presents new data on distribution margins in eight OECD countries and uses an Applied General Equilibrium (AGE) framework to assess the welfare impacts of inefficient distribution. I estimate the extent to which regulations inflate margins. A comparison of margins across countries finds, in contrast to other studies, that Japan's margins are unusually high. The AGE simulations imply that inefficient distribution imposes substantial welfare costs, especially in Japan, with the costs rivaling those of trade barriers. The results also imply that distribution impediments can significantly reduce imports. (JEL D58 , F13 , L81 )     

EXCHANGE RATE RISK and THE BID-ASK SPREAD: A SEVEN COUNTRY COMPARISON

This paper studies the determination of exchange market transaction costs. Using a large data set including seven currencies, it provides empirical support for the theoretical prediction of a positive relationship between the level of uncertainty regarding future prices and current transaction costs. In contrast to most previous work, it considers explicitly the problem of omitted transactions volume, showing that while estimators are less efficient and potentially inconsistent in the absence of the unavailable variable, the direction of potential coefficient bias is such that hypothesis tests regarding the importance of uncertainty are rendered more conservative.     

REFORM SUPPORT IN TIMES OF CRISIS: THE ROLE OF FAMILY TIES

We argue that an important determinant of voters' support for economic reform is the strength of family ties. While the “crisis hypothesis” predicts that crises facilitate reform, we show in a political economy model that this relation can break down, and even reverse, when agents take into account the effect of reform on their family members. Applied to southern European countries with strong family ties, the model rationalizes why the extremely high (youth) unemployment following the Great Recession has not led to more substantial labor market reforms. In such countries austerity might block rather than foster additional structural reforms. (JEL D64, D72, J48)