Integration or Fragmentation? Racial Diversity and the American Future

Over the next generation or two, America’s older, largely white population will increasingly be replaced by today’s disproportionately poor minority children. All future growth will come from populations other than non-Hispanic whites as America moves toward a majority-minority society by 2043. This so-called Third Demographic Transition raises important implications about changing racial boundaries in the United States, that is, about the physical, economic, and sociocultural barriers that separate different racial and ethnic groups. America’s racial transformation may place upward demographic pressure on future poverty and inequality as today’s disproportionately poor and minority children grow into adult roles. Racial boundaries will be reshaped by the changing meaning of race and ethnicity, shifting patterns of racial segregation in neighborhoods and the workplace, newly integrating (or not) friendship networks, and changing rates of interracial marriage and childbearing. The empirical literature provides complicated lessons and offers few guarantees that growing racial diversity will lead to a corresponding breakdown in racial boundaries—that whites and minorities will increasingly share the same physical and social spaces or interact as coequals. How America’s older population of elected officials and taxpayers responds today to America’s increasingly diverse population will provide a window to the future, when today’s children successfully transition (or not) into productive adult roles. Racial and ethnic inclusion will be reshaped by changing ethnoracial inequality, which highlights the need to invest in children—now.     

China’s Demographic Future Under the New Two-Child Policy

China implemented the two-child policy in 2016, however, potential impacts of this new policy on its population reality have not been adequately understood. Using population census data and 1% population sampling data during the period of 1982–2015, this study develops a fertility simulation model to explore the effects of the two-child policy on women’s total fertility rate, and employs Cohort Component Method in population projections to examine China’s demographic future with different fertility regimes. The fertility simulation results reveal that the two-child policy will make significantly positive effects on China’s total fertility rate through increasing second births, leading to a sharp but temporary increase in the first 5 years after the implementation of the new policy. In addition, population projections using simulated total fertility rates show that the Chinese population would reach its peak value around the middle 2020s and be faced with the reduction of labor force supply and rapid aging process, featured with remarkable increases in both size and share of the elderly population. The findings suggest that the two-child policy would undoubtedly affect China’s fertility rates and demographic future; however, the effects are mild and temporary.

     

China''''s Social Development:Guiding Principles and Priorities for the Future

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Social Security Green Paper： Community Nursing will be the Preferred Way for Old-age Support in the Future .

正The green paper on social security Report on Social Security Development in China 2014 announced in Beijing on July 1,2014 stated that community nursing would serve as the preferred way for old-age support in the future while there was still a large shortfall in community nursing,which required urgent improvement.Community Nursing Will Be the Preferred Way for Old-age Support in the Future At present,China is facing the severe challenge of population ageing.Elderly aged over 60 years old have     

Sustainability Key for Future Development in China

Sustainable development with Chinese characteristics is key for China抯 future development. This is a consensus reached by environmentalists both at home and abroad who attended the fifth session of the second meeting of the Committee on International Cooperation in Environment and Development in China held in October, 2001 in Beijing. Since the establishment of the committee in 1992, China has made great efforts to improve its policies related to sustainable development. Environment…     

Four Population Peaks to Appear in Near Future

China will reach four peaks sometime in the near future in its total population, working-age population, elderly population and floating population, according to SFPC Minister Zhang Weiqing. Zhang made this remark at the second session of the fifth national congress of the China Family Planning Association held this December in Beijing. A number of constraints hinder the furtherdevelopment of China抯 population and family planning cause. These include: a low but unstable fertility …     

The Impact of Paternity Leave on Fathers’ Future Earnings

Using Norwegian registry data, we investigate the effect of paternity leave on fathers’ long-term earnings. If the paternity leave increased long-term father involvement, then we should expect a reduction in fathers’ long-term earnings as they shift time and effort from market to home production. For identification, we use the Norwegian introduction of a paternity-leave quota in 1993, reserving four weeks of the total of 42 weeks of paid parental leave exclusively for the father. The introduction of the paternity-leave quota led to a sharp increase in rates of leave-taking for fathers. We estimate a difference-in-differences model that exploits differences in fathers’ exposure to the paternity-leave quota by the child’s age and year of observation. Our analysis suggests that four weeks of paternity leave during the child’s first year decreases fathers’ future earnings, an effect that persists through our last point of observation, when the child is 5 years old. A battery of robustness tests supports our results.     

Skewed Sex Ratios at Birth and Future Marriage Squeeze in China and India, 2005–2100

I examine the potential impact of the anticipated future marriage squeeze on nuptiality patterns in China and India during the twenty-first century. I use population projections from 2005 to 2100 based on three different scenarios for the sex ratio at birth (SRB). To counteract the limitations of cross-sectional methods commonly used to assess the severity of marriage squeezes, I use a two-sex cohort-based procedure to simulate marriage patterns over the twenty-first century based on the female dominance model. I also examine two more-flexible marriage functions to illustrate the potential impact of changes in marriage schedules as a response to the marriage squeeze. Longitudinal indicators of marriage squeeze indicate that the number of prospective grooms in both countries will exceed that of prospective brides by more 50% for three decades in the most favorable scenario. Rates of male bachelorhood will not peak before 2050, and the squeeze conditions will be felt several decades thereafter, even among cohorts unaffected by adverse SRB. If the SRB is allowed to return to normalcy by 2020, the proportion of men unmarried at age 50 is expected to rise to 15% in China by 2055 and to 10% in India by 2065. India suffers from the additional impact of a delayed fertility transition on its age structures.     

Report on the Work of the Government

Following are main excerpts of the Report on the Work of the Government delivered by Premier Wen Jiabao at the Second Session of the Tenth National People's Congress on March 5, 2004. --Editor I. Review of the Past Year's Work Last year was a significant and unusual year in the course of China's development. We braved difficulties and hardships in an indomitable and innovative spirit and made important advances in building a moderately prosperous society in all respects. -- …     

Summary of the Bulletin on the State of the Environment of China in 1993

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China Raised the Basic Standard of the Rehabilitation Hospitals

正Ministry of Public Health issued the "Basic Standard of Rehabilitation Hospitals(2012 Edition)" on April 25,2012.Compared with the version of "Basic standard of Rehabilitation Hospitals",which was released in 1994,the new standard demands higher reqirementsstandard for the first-class and second-class rehabilitation hospitals in such aspects asareas like beds,department setting,personnel,venues,and equipment,etc.     

From the Editor

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The Institutional vs. the Academic Definition of the Quality of Work Life. What is the Focus of the European Commission?

In recent years, we have seen how the quality of work life has been focused and defined by the European Commission (EC). In our study we compare the EC definition with the academic one and try to see how close they are. We also analyse the possibility of applying the institutional definition to the Spanish case through the development of specific indicators. Our main conclusions are that QWL is increasingly important for policy makers. In addition, it is essential to have objective indicators and to conduct surveys in order to reliably measure QWL.     

Report on the Work of the Government （Excerpt）

The following is an excerpt from the REPORT ON THE WORK OF THE GOVERNMENT delivered at the First Session of the Eleventh National People＇s Congress on March 5^th ,2008, by Wen Jiabao, Premier of the State Council.     

Superstitions surrounding the choice of wedding date in Italy: What has changed since the beginning of the economic development process to the present?

In Italy, it is believed that Tuesdays and Fridays are particularly unlucky days for weddings as well as the 17th day of each month. Previous studies realized in the aftermath of the Second World War have shown the strong influence that these superstitions had in determining the wedding dates in the entire country. We have used exhaustive data collection of all marriages celebrated in Italy in the years 2007–2009 to investigate whether superstitions are still able to influence the choices of spouses. We find that this influence is still present after the great economic, social and demographic transformation of Italian society. We also show that a wife’s education reduces the influence of superstition on the choice of the date of marriage while those who opt for a religious rite are also those who are more careful in avoiding inauspicious days.     

Community-Run Fisheries: Avoiding the “Tragedy of the Commons”

This paper discusses how fishing communities around the world avoid destructive overfishing through local and largely informal self-management. The paper offers many examples that undermine the widespread assumption that the tragedy of the commons is inevitable without government regulation.     

Understanding the ''''One-Child'''' Policy

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Statistics about the West

Province: Shaanxi. Sichuan, Ningxia, Guizhou, Yunnan, Gansu,Qinghai, Xinjiang and TibetArea: 5.4 million square kilometers, 56% of China's total.Population: 285 million, 23% of the country's total.GDP (1998): 14% of the country's total, 51 percentage points lessthan the eastern region.Per capita GDP (1998): 4,051 RMB (US$488), 63% of thenational average.Per capita income of rural residents (1998): 900 RMB(US$108), one-fourth of that in east China.Economic growth (1979-1995): 8.7%. …