The economic costs of US stock mispricing

The USAGE model for the United States is used to quantify economic costs due to stock mispricing, made operational by shocking Tobin's q. The simulations quantify a potentially large impact even in the most favorable environment, where export demand holds up, and, the dollar is pro-cyclical. A two-year investment boom in two sectors increases consumption by a Net Present Value (NPV) amount of nearly one per cent, due to a positive investment externality onto the US terms of trade. If the investment is wasted, however, the consumption loss is nearly one-half of a per cent. A 5-year ‘capital strike’ across the whole economy subsequent to the boom - mimicking financial distress from a burst bubble - shaves around 10 per cent off consumption. Given these significant costs associated with “boom” and “bust” equity markets, we consider some, policy options that might result in greater stability in these markets.     

The impact of government spending on Ireland’s housing and residential market – Targeted vs economy-wide stimulus

The Irish residential property market is currently characterized by a considerable structural deficiency in housing supply compared to the underlying level of demand. The lack of housing has led to several economic and social problems in Ireland. The imbalance between supply and demand has led to both house prices and rents increasing faster than household incomes. Recent policy initiatives by the Irish Government have outlined plans for significant spending aimed at increasing the numbers of housing completions to tackle these issues. This paper examines the impact of government spending on housing supply using a structural econometric model of the Irish economy with a specific construction block. Within our econometric analysis, we compare the results of an economy wide versus a sector specific government stimulus on the property market. Our simulations suggest that, in order to achieve social and economic goals like increasing the number of dwellings and making housing more affordable by containing house price inflation, a targeted policy such as that described in the Irish Government's Housing for All plan may be preferable to an economy-wide stimulus.     

Population ecology and niche seeking in the development of gay and lesbian rights groups

This paper explores the formation of groups within the framework of the population ecology literature. Specifically, I argue that newly formed groups’ target membership bases and policy agendas will become more focused as the density of interest groups in a population increases, though groups will not necessarily continue this focused trend once the density of the population has reached its upper limits. To test this theory, I utilize Nownes’ [Nownes, A. J. (2004). The population ecology of interest group formation: Mobilizing for gay and lesbian rights in the United States, 1950–1998. British Journal of Political Science, 34, 49–67] dataset on the population ecology of gay and lesbian rights groups and a typology of groups that Bosso [Bosso, C. J. (2005). Environment, Inc.: From Grassroots to Beltway. Lawrence: University Press of Kansas] used in explaining the focus of environmental rights groups. I find that as the population of gay and lesbian groups became more dense, the groups that formed tended to narrow down their potential membership populations. However, the results were different for a newly formed group's policy agenda. While niche seeking occurred during the rapid growth of groups in the 1970s and the early 1980s, groups that formed after growth leveled off in the mid-1980s balanced their agendas between being too broad and too narrow. This important finding indicates that niche seeking does not always occur in very dense interest populations.     

Welfare Reform and Asset Accumulation: Asset Limit Changes,Financial Assets,and Vehicle Ownership*

Objective. Over the past decade, federal and state governments have substantially liberalized asset limits in welfare. This article examines whether this policy change promotes asset accumulation among the target population of actual and potential welfare recipients. Methods. Utilizing household data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics as well as state data, this study employs a difference‐in‐difference approach in order to determine whether state asset limits affect the target population's financial and vehicle asset accumulation. This study develops a new policy measure that considers the time period following the adoption of liberalized asset limits. Results. Analysis results suggest that increased asset limits may have successfully encouraged the target population's asset accumulation. The earlier a state raised its asset limit, the more likely welfare recipients were to accumulate financial assets and to possess bank accounts. Conclusion. It is recommended to liberalize asset eligibility rules to promote long‐term economic advancement of poor households.     

Models of supranational policymaking and the reform of the EMU

Under what conditions do sovereign governments agree to create a common policy institution? And what model of supranational policymaking may be preferable? To answer these questions, we introduce a policy game of two interdependent countries with reciprocal negative externalities created by shocks to a socially relevant variable. Depending on national preferences over policy options and their outcomes, both countries incur welfare losses if governments pursue non-cooperative policy choices. Then we examine what kind of supranational policy regimes may be endorsed by both governments according to the Pareto criterion. Two regimes are “technocratic” (they do not take national preferences into account), two are “political” (they do). One political regime that we call “union” aggregates the national preferences additively. The thrust of our analysis is that the technocratic regimes are dominated by non-cooperation, so that the single alternative is between the union and non-cooperation. Yet an important point is that the union is the Pareto-dominant regime only within a limited range of asymmetry between countries’ preferences. This result has notable implications for the debate on the reform of the European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) facing the challenge of further integration of member countries. Application to the EMU case is assisted by numerical simulations based on empirical parameters drawn from qualified external sources, which show that aymmetries in national attitudes towards policies that “Europe wants” may jeopardize the creation of a union in alternative to non-cooperation.     

Campaign Finance Laws and the Competition for Spending in Gubernatorial Elections*

Objective. The diversity of campaign finance laws in the U.S. states allows the effects of these reforms to be measured. I investigate the impact of contribution limits and public financing on campaign spending in gubernatorial elections. Methods. I conduct a multivariate regression analysis of general election spending in races for governor from 1980 to 2000. I analyze levels of spending per voter, as well as challengers' share of total spending. Results. State contribution limits do not hold down overall spending. Candidate acceptance of public funding and spending limits reduces spending by incumbent governors more than it reduces that of challengers. As for challengers' share of spending, I find that public funding programs improve challengers' ability to match incumbents' spending dollar for dollar. Conclusions. State programs that offer public funding to candidates effectively favor challengers. This points to the potential of these reforms to make federal elections more competitive.     

Popular Participation in Government

This report in Izvestiia, September 5, 1960 (abridged) emphasizes the importance of enlisting the voluntary participation of Soviet citizens in administering the state apparatus and argues against restricting this participation within narrow limits.     

Accessing a hard to reach population: reflections on research with young carers in Ireland

In keeping with developments in children's rights, research is increasingly including the views of children. Accessing a hard to reach population of children can, however, raise significant ethical and methodological challenges for researchers. Negotiating access through gatekeepers, securing parental consent and limits on confidentiality are central issues in the recruitment process of children. This paper is based on a qualitative study of young carers in the Irish population. It outlines the methodological approaches employed to access a representative sample of young carers and the measures taken to fulfil ethical obligations. In the recruitment phase of the study, researchers attempted to strike a balance between two sometimes competing requirements, the need to protect children from harm and to respect children's competence. This paper reflects on the success and limitations of the approaches adopted towards achieving this balance, exploring the use of gatekeepers as a method to identify and recruit a hidden population, and revisiting the measures taken to comply with the ethical requirements of parental consent and limits on confidentiality.     

Do Term Limits Help Women Get Elected?

Objective . We examine the proposition put forward by term limit advocates and some scholars that the implementation of term limits will lead to increases in the numbers of women serving in state legislatures. Methods . Data are examined for all state house races in the six states that implemented term limits in 1998. Results . Although there was some variation across the states, the overall number of women serving in state house seats that were term-limited actually decreased following the election. Conclusions . More research is needed as more states implement term limits in future elections. However, our analysis suggests that term limits, unaccompanied by efforts to recruit women to run for term-limited seats, may be insufficient to increase the number of women state legislators.     

Abstractions on steroids: A critical realist approach to computer simulations

Computer simulations are increasingly used within various fields of the social sciences, including analytical sociology and computational social science. However, the method has yet to fully find its place within critical realism, generally regarded as reductionist and methodological individualist and thus inadequate to the task of grasping the full and enigmatic complexity of social life. This article contributes to the discussion by suggesting an alternative approach to computer simulations in the social realm. Instead of representing reality, simulations are seen as a way of boosting abstraction by enabling us to isolate and study the effects of emergent mechanisms. The need for such tools is growing more urgent in an age characterized by rapid change and global networks of causal interrelation. Hence there is a need not only for new tools to deal with causal complexity within critical realism, but also for a critical realist perspective to fill the meta‐theoretical vacuum on which the simulation approach is largely based. The approach developed here provides a challenge to the predominant ways in which simulations are utilized today, with increasingly sophisticated models aiming towards realistic representation on the basis of empirical data.     

State Policy Choices and Responsiveness of the Temporary Assistance for Needy Families Program During the Great Recession

ABSTRACT

The Great Recession that officially began in December 2007 and ended in June 2009 was the most severe recession since the Depression of the 1930s. To accurately explain the number of families and children receiving cash assistance from Temporary Assistance to Needy Families (TANF) during the 2007 recession, it is important to capture state-level variations in recessionary periods, economies, and TANF policies. This study breaks ground by using multiple regression to explain the number of families enrolled in the TANF program when the TANF caseload peaked in each of the 51 jurisdictions’ recessions as a function of their severe TANF policies while controlling for benefit levels, unemployment rates, and size of populations. Key findings strongly suggest that all else constant, TANF did not grow as much as it would have in the 2007 recession partially due to shorter lifetime limits (less than 60 months) or temporary time limits, multiple severe policies, or benefit cuts witnessed in some states. This study is important to policy makers and academics concerned with the effect of severe policies on the enrollment of needy families with children in the TANF program. The federal government should encourage states to relax some of their requirements during recessions. Future research should examine the consequences of severe TANF policies on the well-being of families with children during recessions.     

Policy Simulation of the Indian Silk Industry through an Econometric Model

This study aimed at understanding and quantifying the relationship between the important variables of the various subsectors of the Indian silk industry through an econometric simulation model, and using the model for forecasting as well as policy simulations. Forecasts of the endogenous variables of the system (demand, supply, and prices of mulberry cocoons, raw silk, and silk fabric) for the period 1991–92 to 2000–01 indicates that the growth in the industry will slow down in the future. Policy simulations were undertaken to assess the changes in the import price of raw silk, export price of fabrics, and regulation of the quantity of imports of raw silk on the silk industry. While imports and exports were closely linked, their impact on the silk industry was not very high. It was also revealed that the income of the consumers and mulberry acreage have significant influence on the industry.     

The role of macroeconomic policies in the global crisis

This paper argues that the lack of timely and decisive policy action to correct domestic and external imbalances contributed crucially to the build-up of financial excesses that led to the financial crisis and the Great Recession. We focus on 2002–2007 and perform a number of counterfactual simulations to investigate two central elements of the story, namely: (a) an over-expansionary US monetary policy and the absence of effective macro-prudential supervision, which permitted a prolonged expansion of debt-financed consumer spending and (b) the choice by China and other emerging countries to pursue an export-led growth strategy supported by pegging their currencies to the US dollar, in conjunction with sluggish domestic demand in major advanced economies characterized by low potential output growth. The results of the simulations lend support to the view that if substantial, globally coordinated demand rebalancing had been undertaken early on, the macroeconomic and financial imbalances would not have accumulated to the extent that they did and the financial turmoil might have had less drastic global consequences.     

ADA policies and the editorial positions of four publications

This article explores the utility of using editorials as measures of ideology and as a mechanism for linking ideology with public policy formulation. It relates editorial positions taken by the New York Times, Washington Post, Wall Street Journal, and National Review to Americans for Democratic Action (ADA) scores on domestic policy, highlighting the advantages inherent in the use of editorials. It also answers critiques that the Times and Post are not liberal in orientation.     

Juggling and Dealing: The Creative Work of Care Package Purchasing

In conventional diagrams of the new service delivery process, assessment of need is linked to purchase by a single line or arrow; the implication is that purchase follows more or less logically and directly from assessment. This paper focuses on the complex creative work that goes on in the "space" between assessment of need and purchase of service, and the changing influences on that work. "Purchase" is deconstructed to reveal the complex processes and calculations involved, and the ways in which budgets "free" resources and markets influence the final outcome. The paper describes the effects on care package construction and purchase of changing policies, budget arrangements and financial limits; it goes on to outline the difficulties and complications in using information on unit costs in purchasing. Unit costs are only part of a complex equation in which prices are negotiated and total cost juggled in the context of budgets, financial limits, real accessibility and balanced by quality considerations. It is suggested that talk of "playing shops" and use of "off-the-shelf" services underestimates the complexity of care package construction and purchase. Micro-purchase of care services has more in common with dealing and juggling than with lifting standardized, packaged, pre-priced goods off shelves in Sainsbury's.     

新伦理与旧角色:五四新女性身份认同的困境(英文)

五四新女性是在学校这一现代教育平台由新文化启蒙话语塑造而成,她们的意识形态认同来自新文化,是以个人主义为核心的正义伦理;而她们的性别认同及相应的关怀伦理,却使其对“旧道德”下的女性同类有更多同情。为实现个人权利、维护神圣恋爱,她们“忽略”名分、委屈尊严,在新旧道德的模糊地带与有妇之夫结成特殊婚姻。而非正常婚姻关系的缺憾,爱情中隐含的性别等级,个人自由与关怀伦理的对立与冲突等,都导致她们陷入认同危机。新女性身份认同的困境,体现了“五四”正义伦理的道德局限,而五四文学表达的某种匮乏,亦源自这个局限。     

The Welfare Consequences of Strategic Voting in Two Commonly Used Parliamentary Agendas

This paper studies the welfare consequences of strategic voting in two commonly used parliamentary agendas by comparing the average utilities obtained in simulated voting under two behavioural assumptions: expected utility maximising behaviour and sincere behaviour. The average utility obtained in simulations is higher with expected utility maximising behaviour than with sincere voting behaviour under a broad range of assumptions. Strategic voting increases welfare particularly if the distribution of preference intensities correlates with voter types.      

A note on “Re-examining the law of iterated expectations for Choquet decision makers”

This note completes the main result of Zimper (Theory and decision, doi:10.1007/s11238-010-9221-8, 2010), by showing that additional conditions are needed in order the law of iterated expectations to hold true for Choquet decision makers. Due to the comonotonic additivity of Choquet expectations, the equation E[f, ν(dω)] = E[E[f(ω _{i, j} ), ν(A _{i, j} |A _i )], ν(A _i )], is valid only when the act f is comonotonic with its dynamic form, that we name “conditional certainty equivalent act”.     

Private and public pension schemes: Elements of a comparative approach

The comparative approach offers improved understanding of what is at stake for enterprises, workers and States in developing private pension schemes to fill the gap left by public schemes. The features that distinguish private schemes result from the freedom with which they were designed — by enterprises themselves or through collective bargaining — and the limits imposed by growing state intervention in granting fiscal concessions or stipulating social guarantees. Depending on how these various components are combined, private schemes may offers workers added protection or form a source of insecurity.     

The Global-Local Dialectic: Challenges for African Scholarship and Social Work in a Post-Colonial World

This paper addresses the global–local dialectic in respectof the convergence and divergence of culture and democracy,and the consequences of neo-liberal capitalism. The argumentis that while the globalization of people has produced somegains, the globalization of capital has created a world of unbridledconsumerism, individualism and greed with the maintenance ofa capitalist ideological hegemony that precludes our searchfor alternatives and, indeed, limits our very ability to thinkoutside the system. The paper concludes with a call for thedevelopment of a counter-hegemonic consciousness to neo-liberalcapitalism and a commitment to redistributive justice as weenvision another world order.