基于实物期权的科技创业企业并购价值评估研究

结合科技创业企业的特点,针对传统企业并购价值评估模型的局限性,从实物期权的角度阐述了创业企业并购和期权的关系,认为并购中创业企业价值应为并购前创业企业的期权价值与并购期权价值之和,并利用B-S模型和Metron理论构建了创业企业并购价值的期权评估模型,该模型为并购科技创业企业定价提供了一种可行的思路和方法.     

实物期权价值对海外风电项目并购的影响

正风电项目内在价值与外在市场价格的偏差会给投资带来风险,同时也带来机遇。具体来说,如果风电项目的内在价值低于市场价格,那么对于投资者来讲,就意味着较高的投资风险;而如果风电项目的内在价值高于外在的市场价格,对投资者来说,就意味着该风电项目能够带来超额利润。随着金融市场的日益规范化,投资者不断趋于理性,通过科学合理的价值评估,能够将风电项目真实的内在价值展现在投资者面前,对投资行为有着重要的指导意义,有助于帮助投     

基于实物期权的研发项目动态投资决策模型

本文基于实物期权理论,针对研发项目阶段性特点,结合博弈论的思想,分析了多个研发项目组成的投资状态组合,构建了研发项目动态选择模型。首先,根据研发项目多阶段的特征,利用孪生证券的思想,基于实物期权理论,建立了项目中止决策准则;在此基础上分析研发项目的投资决策状态,建立了二十五个状态的切换场景;然后通过实际算例对模型进行验证和分析,得出了研发项目投资的影响范围概念图,最终实现两个项目的最优投资决策目标。     

基于实物期权的投资项目风险管理

尽管金融投资与实物投资在很多方面存在着区别,在对金融投资研究中形成的现代资本市场的理论、模型和方法对实物投资仍有着一定的指导意义.实物期权方法是金融期权定价理论在实物投资中的应用,并被广泛应用于项目评估中.金融期权则是风险对冲工具的重要工具之一,在金融风险管理中发挥着重要的作用.本文从金融期权在金融风险管理中的应用出发,探讨了实物期权管理投资项目风险的思路,并通过构造算例予以说明.     

目标企业价值评估的实物期权定价法探讨

目标企业价值评估是确定并购价格的基础。本文在评价传统目标企业价值评估方法的基础上,对并购的期权特性进行了分析,提出了适应我国目前并购市场需要的实物期权定价法,并结合案例分析说明期权价值对并购决策的重要性。     

基于实物期权的项目价值分析

现代财务理论及实务的发展形成了DCF方法为主的资本预算方法体系,DCF方法在理论和实践中存在许多难以克服的缺陷。实物期权方法,考虑了不确定性条件下企业投资项目中存在的各种具有期权性质的选择权及管理者的管理柔性,并使用B-S期权定价方法对期权进行量化分析,使预算的项目价值包含选择权的价值。     

白衣骑士策略下敌意并购竞价与时机研究

从目标企业往往引入白衣骑士来抵制敌意并购的实践出发,通过引入终止费协议构建白衣骑士策略下的动态竞争敌意并购模型,重点求解了均衡状态下竞价阶段的最优竞价策略,序贯博弈阶段白衣骑士的最优进入决策、目标企业的最优终止费策略和敌意并购方的初始报价策略,以及时机选择阶段敌意并购方的最优敌意并购时机。研究结果表明：(1)终止费同时降低了敌意并购方和白衣骑士的最优竞价,但并不会改变竞价结果,即并购协同系数最大的并购方获得目标企业所有权。(2)存在一个协同系数的临界值,当敌意并购方的协同系数高于该临界值时,敌意并购方进行抢占式报价,目标企业接受该报价;反之,敌意并购方不进行抢占式报价,目标企业与白衣骑士签订终止费协议,白衣骑士与敌意并购方竞争并购目标企业。(3)白衣骑士策略提高了协同系数临界值和抢占式报价,降低敌意并购方期望并购收益,推迟敌意并购时机,并在随机冲击较小时阻止具有正收益的敌意并购的发生。     

高新技术产业化中风险投资的实物期权分析

高新技术产业由于具有投资的不可逆性和很大的收益不确定性,因此不能采用传统的净现值方法来评估是否对其投资.在分析高新技术产业特点的基础上,提出了嵌入期权的现金流量图评估方法,并且根据经验法则求出了风险投资公司应占高新技术企业的股份.     

资产质量、实物期权与价值体现

依据实物期权理论,以2010年至2013年中国A股上市公司为研究样本,按是否属于ST公司和资产质量得分的十分位数对样本进行分组,研究资产质量得分及其特征对企业价值的影响,进一步使用Vuong检验分析不同组别样本公司资产质量特征表现在价值体现形式的差异性.研究结果表明,不同资产质量的公司具有不同的实物期权类型,资产质量高的公司体现出增长期权价值,而资产质量低的公司体现出清算期权价值.处于成长期的企业,资产的盈利性占主导地位;严重价值毁损的企业,资产的获现性发挥主要作用.中国资本市场整体处于价值增长阶段,但部分经营状况恶化的企业影响了市场的发展,该结论为上市公司退市制度提供了直接证据支持.     

基于期权分析方法的动态联盟合同条款设计

动态联盟是为了提高企业敏捷性而形成的一种基于合同的新型组织形式.因此,为实现"双赢"的目的必须设计良好的合同.基于期权分析方法分析合同条款中的权利、义务关系和合同条款设计,并用蒙特卡洛仿真方法对现实世界中的汽车联盟合作协议进行了研究.     

Process Improvement,Learning, and Real Options

We use a real‐options approach to analyze investments in process improvement. We develop a simple, stochastic model of a firm making investment decisions in process improvement. Our analysis offers several interesting insights into investments in process improvement. First, early investment in process improvement results in valuable knowledge, which helps increase the value of the option to invest in process improvement in future periods. This may motivate a firm to invest in process improvements as early as possible. Second, it may be optimal for a firm to stop investing when such investments do not create enough value in the later stages of the investment horizon. Third, although one would expect the state of a firm's process relative to that of other firms to impact a firm's decision to invest in process improvement, this study finds that the impetus is conditional and identifies these conditions. Finally, in such an environment, the delay of investment in process improvement incurs an opportunity cost for a firm, and we show that the traditional net present value rule must incorporate this opportunity cost and the knowledge‐induced change in future option values to lead to a correct investment decision.     

动态能力的测量与功效:基于中国经验的实证研究

本文通过理论分析初步界定了测量动态能力的6个维度。为了验证此评测体系的科学性和实用性,本文对国内29家企业的高层管理者进行了半结构性访谈,并在探测性检验的基础上将动态能力的测量维度调整为市场潜力、组织柔性、战略隔绝、组织学习与组织变革5个方面。最后通过大规模的问卷调查,基于363份有效样本,对我国企业动态能力的制约性因素,以及它对企业绩效的贡献进行了检验,结果表明,动态能力在一定程度上受到经济结构的影响,在动态能力对企业绩效的有限的贡献中,不同能力因子的作用存在一定的差异性。     

基于实物期权的“小灵通”的投资价值分析方法

在传统项目价值评估方法的基础上,分析了小灵通市场价值的构成和来源.进而采用实物期权法,在考虑未来3G牌照的基础上,对小灵通的价值进行重新评估.得到了小灵通在短期内不能帮助固话运营商收回投资,但从长期来看却可以帮助固话运营商抢得获取3G移动牌照的筹码,从而带来稳定收益的结论.该结论也从侧面揭示了企业是经济体的本质,当社会利益与企业利益发生矛盾时,固话运营商会不惜以阻碍产业发展为代价,利用技术落后的小灵通,以图获取自身的价值.     

Scenarios,Real Options and Integrated Risk Management

In the 1970s, scenario planning gained prominence as a strategic management tool. Scenario planning encourages managers to envision plausible future states of the world and consider how to take advantage of opportunities and avoid potential threats. In the last decade, finance researchers have developed real option analysis as a way to value investments under uncertainty. Scenario planning and real option analysis have complementary strengths and weaknesses as tools for managers making strategic investment decisions under uncertainty. We combine these two approaches in an integrated risk management process. This process involves scenario development, exposure identification, formulating risk management responses, and implementation steps. We advocate a corporate-level perspective on managing risk that takes into consideration the full range of exposures across a firm’s portfolio of businesses. In contrast with the predominant emphasis on quantitative analysis in the real option literature, this study illustrates qualitative assessment of real options.     

基于中国上市公司的实物期权价值创造的实证检验

以1998年以前上市的657家上市公司为样本,对实证检验实物期权的价值创造功能做了探索性研究。研究结论表明,内含有价值实物期权的上市公司,即具有高管理弹性(灵活性),同时又面临高度不确定性市场环境的上市公司,获得了显著高的收益率,为股东创造了更多的财富,从而证实了实物期权的价值创造功能。     

Dynamic Capabilities: An Exploration of How Firms Renew their Resource Base

The aim of this paper is to extend the concept of dynamic capabilities. Building on prior research, we suggest that there are three levels of dynamic capabilities which are related to managers' perceptions of environmental dynamism. At the first level we find incremental dynamic capabilities: those capabilities concerned with the continuous improvement of the firm's resource base. At the second level are renewing dynamic capabilities, those that refresh, adapt and augment the resource base. These two levels are usually conceived as one and represent what the literature refers to as dynamic capabilities. At the third level are regenerative dynamic capabilities, which impact, not on the firm's resource base, but on its current set of dynamic capabilities, i.e. these change the way the firm changes its resource base. We explore the three levels using illustrative examples and conclude that regenerative dynamic capabilities may either come from inside the firm or enter the firm from outside, via changes in leadership or the intervention of external change agents.     

Internal versus External Control: An Analysis of Board Composition and Ownership in UK Takeovers

This paper examines the relationship between board composition, ownership structure and takeovers in the UK in the period 1989–1993. We compare board composition and ownership characteristics for a sample of 166 takeover targets with a matched sample of nontarget firms. We further disaggregate our sample depending on target management's attitude to the bid as well as the eventual outcome of the bid. We find little difference between board composition and ownership structure between all targets and the control group of nontargets. However, when we disaggregate the samples, we find that hostile targets are more likely to have different individuals in the role of chairman and CEO, and exhibit significantly lower levels of managerial ownership compared to both the control group of nontargets and targets of friendly takeovers. We also find that managerial ownership is positively related to takeover success. Overall, our results support the findings of a number of recent studies in the US by highlighting the important role managerial share ownership plays in the takeover process.     

Success Traps,Dynamic Capabilities and Firm Performance

Dynamic capabilities (DCs) are fundamental to the understanding of differential firm performance. However, the question remains why some firms are better at developing and applying DCs than others. In particular, successful firms have been warned against the tendency to fall into a success or competence trap, where success reinforces exploitation of existing competences and crowds out exploration of new competences, hindering the development of DCs. Therefore, this study examines the effects of success traps on DCs and consequently firm performance, taking into account firm strategy and market dynamism. To facilitate this, our study also identifies the commonalities of DCs across firms. Drawing on survey data from 113 UK high‐tech small and medium‐sized firms, we find that success traps have a significant, strong negative effect on DCs, which in turn have a weak positive effect on firm performance; DCs are manifested through absorptive and transformative capabilities as two common features across firms. We also find that the development and application of DCs is related to internal factors (such as success traps) rather than external factors (such as market dynamism).     

组织模块性与动态能力:基于巨人通力电梯公司的探索性案例研究

利用探索性嵌入式单案例研究,以高速发展的中国电梯行业中具有代表性的中外合资企业为分析样本,探讨了组织的模块性结构和动态能力之间的因果联系。研究发现了"组织模块性增强在先、动态能力提升在后"的因果关系线索,并进一步深入分析,提出了组织模块性正向促进动态能力的初步理论命题。