Reporting "The Polls" in 2004

Media reports of polls indicate how well public opinion pollshave been integrated into campaign coverage. This article examineshow polls were used in 2004. Although there were relativelylimited methodological changes in how polls were conducted in2004, there were changes in how the polls were treated in themedia. Americans in 2004 were subjected to intense debates aboutpolls and to as much reporting about "the polls" as there wasof the polls themselves. The discussion of "the polls" in 2004included claims of electability during the Democratic nominatingprocess, increased reporting about methodological issues, andheightened political criticisms of "the polls." The articleconcludes with a discussion of the current state and the futureof news polling.     

Of Polls, Mountains: U.S. Journalists and Their Use of Election Surveys

Polls are a prominent feature of U.S. election news coverage.Although polls are used to explain voter opinion, they are employedmostly to fuel horse-race coverage and to craft images consistentwith the candidates’ positions in the race. Moreover,U.S. journalists sometimes misinterpret polls by slighting thepossibility that changes in candidate preference are the resultof survey error rather than real change. On balance, U.S. journalists’dependence on polls adversely affects the quality of Americanelection coverage.     

Conformity to AAPOR Standards in Newspaper Reporting of Public Opinion Polls

This study examines three newspapers' level of conformity toAAPOR standards of minimal disclosure in their reporting ofpublic opinion polls. Analysis of 116 polls published in theperiod of 1972–79 indicates a dramatic increase in thenumber of polls reported, but not in the level of conformityto AAPOR standards. Conformity is higher when the polls concernelections rather than nonelection topics, and when newspapersthemselves, rather than external sources, are the sources ofthe polls.     

Lyndon Johnson and the Public Polls

This article examines the relationship between President LyndonJohnson and those who take published polls. As his poll ratingsdeclined, Johnson used a number of methods to convince thosewith influence that he was more popular than the polls indicated.These methods included direct and indirect attacks on the polls,leaks of private polls, attempts to influence the results, andcourting the pollsters. The article argues that the last ofthese poses a danger to the objectivity of the pollsters. Secretlygiving advice to and taking private polls for a president areincompatible with the role of objective measurer of public opinion.     

Pre-election polling and third party candidates

I analyze voters’ incentives in responding to pre-election polls with a third party candidate. Third party supporters normally have an incentive to vote strategically in the election by voting for one of the major candidates. But these voters would vote third party if the third party candidate is doing surprisingly well in the polls. Because voters are more likely to vote third party if the third party candidate is doing well in polls, voters who like the third party candidate best have an incentive to claim they will vote third party in the polls so that more voters will ultimately vote third party in the election. The differing incentives faced during polls and elections accounts for why third party candidates do better in polls than in elections.     

The Poll as a News Event in the 1980 Presidential Campaign

Public opinion polls made up 15 percent of the news events coveredduring the 1980 presidential election campaign, but news storiesgenerated by polls were no more likely to receive better playin the 50 newspapers studied than other stories about the campaign.Horserace polls were popular with editors during the last twoweeks of the campaign.     

Do Exit Polls Influence Voting Behavior?

This article summarizes the findings of the effect of exit pollson voting behavior. Both macro and micro methods have been used,and no methods are perfect. Exit polls appear to cause smalldeclines in total voting in areas where the polls close latefor those elections where the exit polls predict a clear winnerwhen previously the race had been considered close.     

Making don't knows make sense: Bourdieu, phenomenology and opinion polls

Despite Bourdieu's huge contribution in sociologically operationalizing some of the principles contained in Husserlian phenomenology, this paper argues that by drawing more from this source his criticisms of opinion polls can be extended theoretically and methodologically. In particular, by being aware of the transitions from doxa or ‘dispositional opinion’ to reflective opinion, Husserlian phenomenology gives a theoretical basis which we can draw on to make concrete methodological elaborations, such as in the use of ‘identification bid’ questions, of Bourdieu's account of the drawbacks of opinion polls.     

Evaluating Polls with Poll Data

The Roper Organization conducted two surveys in 1985 on thepublic's attitudes toward polls. One was a 10-question interviewand the other was a single question asking for reactions toletters both critical and laudatory of polls. Results of thetwo surveys, which were asked of national samples of adults,indicate that although there is skepticism among the publicabout polls, few people are entirely negative. However, therise in the last 10 years in the percentage of those who arecritical of polls suggests that there is cause for concern.The author makes suggestions for improving polling from therespondent's point of view.     

WHY THE DEMOCRAT-REPUBLICAN PARTISANSHIP GAP VARIES FROM POLL TO POLL

Polls taken in late 1980 and 1984 varied by up to 20 pointsin the spread they reported between Democratic and Republicanidentifiers. We found three systematic and sizable differencesacross polls: polls that sample only voters, polls that emphasize"today" or the present in their question wording, and pollsthat are taken close to election day (at least in circumstanceslike those of 1984) tend to favor the party currently advantagedin the presidential race.     

Rating the Polls: The Views of Media Elites and the General Public

To measure the credibility of the polls in 1984, Gallup conductedtwo surveys, one of the press and one of the general public.Results of the press survey indicated a favorable reaction tothe accuracy of the preelection polling in 1984, although therewas a division of opinion about whether the polls were betterat explaining the vote than predicting it, and whether the pollsenhanced or interfered with the electoral process. The public'sperception of the polls was a generally positive one both asto their accuracy and their overall effect.     

THE OBSESSION TO FORECAST: PRE-ELECTION POLLS IN THE ISRAELI PRESS

The generous coverage of pre-election polls in the media hasstimulated a debate on the effects of publicized polls on voters.Data for this study come from a content analysis of all pressreports on polls during six pre-election campaigns in Israel(1969–88). The findings highlight the impressive increaseof poll reports both by space and by prominence in the press.Analysis of the reports' content reveals that the style of reportingpolls has become dominated by "horse-race" journalism, wherepredictions and popularity ratings are the leading themes. Inaddition, although the reports have become more detailed andinformative, they still do not adequately define or interpretmethodological deficiencies. Finally, the analysis examinesthe intercorrelations between attributes of coverage and predictionserrors. The fact that the independent variable, media coverageof polls, has changed significantly calls for the inclusionof this factor in any study of polls' effects.     

A Review and Proposal for a New Measure of Poll Accuracy

This article proposes a new measure of the predictive accuracy(A) of election polls that permits examination of both accuracyand bias, and it applies the new measure to summarize the resultsof a number of preelection polls. We first briefly review pastmeasures of accuracy, then introduce the new measure. Afterthe new measure is described, the general strategy is to applyit to three presidential elections (1948, 1996, and 2000) andto compare the results derived from it to the results obtainedwith the Mosteller measures. Then, the new measure is appliedto the results of 548 state polls from gubernatorial and senatorialraces in the 2002 elections to illustrate its application toa large body of preelection polls conducted in "off-year" raceswith different outcomes. We believe that this new measure willbe useful as a summary measure of accuracy in election forecasts.It is easily computed and summarized, and it can be used asa dependent variable in multivariate statistical analyses ofthe nature and extent of biases that affect election forecastsand to identify their potential sources. It is comparable acrosselections with different outcomes and among polls that varyin their treatment or numbers of undecided voters.     

Polling on Watergate: The Battle for Public Opinion

How do polls become part of the political process through whichdecisions are made and issues resolved? Case studies of thedevelopment and outcome of political controversies, like Watergate,can go a long way toward clarification of the direct and indirectimpacts of the polls.     

QUESTION WORDING AND PUBLIC SUPPORT FOR CONTRA AID, 1983-1986

How does question wording affect the results of polls? How canwe distinguish question wording effects from genuine change?In this analysis, we make use of a series of polls concerningPresident Reagan's policy toward Nicaragua. We identify fivevariations in wording in the survey items that have been usedon this topic, and we find evidence that these are responsiblefor variations in support for the Contras. If the ideologicalnature of the Sandinistas, President Reagan, the amount of moneyto be spent, and/or the role of the Contras are mentioned, orif a balanced question format is employed, the poll resultscan be substantially affected. Once these factors are controlledfor, we can argue that there was a small but statistically significantincrease in support for Reagan's policy over the period 1983–1986.     

THE FIRST STRAW? A STUDY OF THE ORIGINS OF ELECTION POLLS

Proto-straw polls appeared in the presidential election of 1824.These precursors to modern election polls originated out ofa combination of short-term political changes associated withthe end of the first American party system in general and thedemise of the congressional caucus system of nomination in particularand long-term developments associated with growing democratization,centralization, and quantification.     

THE SHORT-TERM EFFECT OF ELECTION POLLS ON FOREIGN EXCHANGE RATES: THE 1988 CANCDIAN FEDERAL ELECTION

Polls do not simply measure public opinion; they also providevital information that the public can use to form opinions andto make decisions. Using multiple regression analysis, the authorsfound that published polls had a powerful impact on the valueof the Canadian dollar during the 1988 Canadian federal election.This appears to have been due to the unprecedented importanceof economic issues in the federal campaign, the distinctivepositions taken by the major political parties with respectto the U.S.-Canadian Free Trade Agreement, and to the proliferationof "horse-race" polls in the media. These results have implicationsfor understanding the behavior of other elite groups, such asfinancial contributors and volunteer campaign workers, who mayalso use published horse-race polls to handicap election outcomes.     

Winning the Presidential Nomination: National Polls and State Primary Elections, 1936-1972

Using the results of 202 Gallup opinion polls and 248 stateprimary elections, this article develops a general model ofpresidential nomination campaigns. National public opinion isfound to play a major role, and state primaries a much lesserrole, in winning the presidential nomination.     

Don't Ask,Don't Tell and Other LGB Civil Rights Issues: Effects of Terminology on Public Opinion

“Don't Ask, Don't Tell” was devised to combat the perceived costs associated with gays and lesbians openly serving in the military, including low unit cohesion, damage to the military's reputation, and the general population's lack of acceptance for homosexuals serving (Belkin, 2008). However, recent polls and policy reversal have shown growing public support for homosexuals being allowed to serve openly. Interestingly, the amount of support has varied as a function of question wording. Two polls conducted by CBS News found support for homosexuals serving in the military varied with greater support for “gays and lesbians” compared to “homosexuals.” Two studies were conducted to further examine the effect of terminology on reported support. Two samples reported opinions for homosexual civil rights issues. Sexual orientation was described using the terms gay men and lesbians, homosexuals, gay men, or lesbians. Percentage differences were found to be greater than those reported in the CBS polls, as wording choice had an effect on reported openness regarding homosexual civil rights. These differences indicate that it is important to consider precise terminology usage when measuring opinions. Levels of support, stereotypes activated, and the relationship between support for civil rights and general levels of prejudice were examined.     

POLLING ON THE ISSUES PUBLIC OPINION AND THE NUCLEAR FREEZE

Throughout the first term of the Reagan administration, thenuclear freeze movement headlined the news and scored numerouspolitical victories. Hundreds of state and local governments,as well as the U.S. House of Representatives, passed resolutionsin support of the freeze. Public opinion polls played a majorrole in the debate, as the media and freeze advocates citednumerous polls indicating overwhelming public support for theinitiative. Yet a comprehensive and detailed examination ofnational polls reveals that public support for the freeze cameheavily qualified. While Americans expressed strong supportfor the basic concept of a freeze, they expressed doubts aboutthe possibility of a verifiable and balanced freeze agreement.Furthermore, the public doubted that the Soviet Union genuinelydesired such an agreement. Most surprisingly, the public didnot pay much attention to the debate. Few Americans claimedto know or care much about the freeze initiative, and fewerstill felt positively toward the political activists behindthe freeze.