Stochastic Choice and Consistency in Decision Making Under Risk: An Experimental Study

This paper reports the results of an experiment designed to uncover the stochastic structure of individual preferences over lotteries. Unlike previous experiments, which have presented subjects with pair-wise choices between lotteries, our design allowed subjects to choose between two lotteries or (virtually) any convex combination of the two lotteries. We interpret the mixtures of lotteries chosen by subjects as a measure of the stochastic structure of choice. We test between two alternative interpretations of stochastic choice: the random utility interpretation and the deterministic preferences interpretation. The main findings of the experiment are that the typical subject prefers mixtures of lotteries rather than the extremes of a linear lottery choice set. The distribution of choices does not change between a first and second asking of the same question. We argue that this provides support for the deterministic preferences interpretation over the random utility interpretation of stochastic choice. As a subsidiary result, we find a small proportion of subjects make choices that violate transitivity, but the level of intransitive choice falls significantly over time.     

Biases in Ethical Decision Making among University Faculty

Over the years, cognitive biases have been examined throughout the decision-making literature, but little work has investigated the cognitive biases operating in ethical decision making. The present effort explores a taxonomy of biases through interviews with university faculty members. Additionally, this study identifies the psychological processes giving rise to these biases in ethical decision making. Results suggest that the biases listed in the taxonomy are indeed operating in the ethical decision making of university faculty. Implications of these results are discussed.     

A Parallel between Regret Theory and Outranking Methods for Multicriteria Decision Making Under Imprecise Information

Incorporation of the behavioral issues of the decision maker (DM) is among the aspects that each Multicriteria Decision Making (MCDM) method implicitly or explicitly takes into account. As postulated by regret theory, the feelings of regret and rejoice are among the behavioral issues associated with the entire decision making process. Within the context of MCDM, the DM may feel regret, when the chosen alternative is compared with another one having at least one better criterion value. PROMETHEE II is a widely known MCDM method that makes no explicit incorporation of regret attitude of the DM. In this paper, we elaborate on the applicability of regret theory to MCDM context. In particular, we investigate the findings of regret theory and explore the parallel between regret theory and PROMETHEE II method. Relying on the concepts of regret theory, we demonstrate how a decision that is made using a PROMETHEE II based outranking method conforms to the regret attitude of the DM.     

The Relation Between Probability and Evidence Judgment: An Extension of Support Theory

We propose a theory that relates perceived evidence to numerical probability judgment. The most successful prior account of this relation is Support Theory, advanced in Tversky and Koehler (1994). Support Theory, however, implies additive probability estimates for binary partitions. In contrast, superadditivity has been documented in Macchi, Osherson, and Krantz (1999), and both sub- and superadditivity appear in the experiments reported here. Nonadditivity suggests asymmetry in the processing of focal and nonfocal hypotheses, even within binary partitions. We extend Support Theory by revising its basic equation to allow such asymmetry, and compare the two equations' ability to predict numerical assessments of probability from scaled estimates of evidence for and against a given proposition. Both between- and within-subject experimental designs are employed for this purpose. We find that the revised equation is more accurate than the original Support Theory equation. The implications of asymmetric processing on qualitative assessments of chance are also briefly discussed.     

Indigenous Australians and Impaired Decision‐Making Capacity

This article explores issues associated with impaired decision‐making capacity for Indigenous Australians. There is very little published on the subject of impaired decision‐making capacity in Australia, particularly in relation to Indigenous people. To gain some insight into this subject, this article looks at some indicators of impaired decision‐making capacity for Indigenous Australians such as rates of intellectual disability and mental illness. The Australian state‐based Guardianship and Administration system—the legislative framework designed to provide for decision‐making for people with impaired capacity—is briefly described before looking at the cultural relevance of this Western system and its constructs for Indigenous Australians. Future investigation should be directed at exploring existing and alternative strategies to support Indigenous Australians with impaired capacity and their carers.     

A Method for Eliciting Utilities and its Application to Collective Choice

Designing a mechanism that provides a direct incentive for an individual to report her utility function over several alternatives is a difficult task. A framework for such mechanism design is the following: an individual (a decision maker) is faced with an optimization problem (e.g., maximization of expected utility), and a mechanism designer observes the decision maker’s action. The mechanism does reveal the individual’s utility truthfully if the mechanism designer, having observed the decision maker’s action, infers the decision maker’s utilities over several alternatives. This paper studies an example of such a mechanism and discusses its application to the problem of optimal social choice. Under certain simplifying assumptions about individuals’ utility functions and about how voters choose their voting strategies, this mechanism selects the alternative that maximizes Harsanyi’s social utility function and is Pareto-efficient.     

A racial comparison of Family Group Decision Making in the USA1

This study examined Family Group Decision Making (FGDM) among a nationally representative sample of African‐American and White children investigated for maltreatment in the US. While FGDM was developed for work with ethnic minority families, there is no research on how this is being carried out in the US, where African‐American children are overrepresented in child welfare services. The study views racial differences in child, caregiver and maltreatment characteristics related to FGDM; composition of FGDM meetings; service referrals and receipt; and service satisfaction. Data are from the National Survey of Child and Adolescent Well‐being (NSCAW), a study of 5501 children ages 0–14. Current analyses include African‐American and White children (n= 4129). Stratified, bivariate and multivariate regression analyses were used. Results showed that while race was not related FGDM receipt, different characteristics lead to FGDM among African‐American and White families. Surprisingly, caregivers report feeling no more involved in decision‐making in association with FGDM. FGDM is provided at low rates overall (10%) and less frequently among White caseworkers. Child access to mental health services increases in relation to FGDM. Implications are discussed.     

Aspects of Arranged Marriages and the Theory of Markov Decision Processes

The theory of Markov decision processes (MDP) can be used to analyze a wide variety of stopping time problems in economics. In this paper, the nature of such problems is discussed and then the underlying theory is applied to the question of arranged marriages. We construct a stylized model of arranged marriages and, inter alia, it is shown that a decision maker's optimal policy depends only on the nature of the current marriage proposal, independent of whether there is recall (storage) of previous marriage proposals.     

Discourses of Decision Making in Child Protection: Condusting Comprehensive Assessments in Britain

Findings from a qualitative study of comprehensive assessments in child protection social work in the UK are discussed. The accounts of social workers in formal interviews, informal interactions and case files are analysed, examining their explanations and understandings of the process of decision making. Two discourses of decision making are discerned: scientific observation and reflective evaluation. Whilst most social workers understand their work, at different times, through both discourses, it is argued that the discourse of scientific observation becomes the dominant one when communicating with other agencies such as the court. The findings are discussed in relation to wider issues in contemporary social work including the bureaucratisation of social work and the nature of assessment.     

Risk Management Paradigms in Health and Social Services for Professional Decision Making on the Long-Term Care of Older People

Risk management systems and structures are developing rapidlywithin UK health and personal social services. However, therisk management strategies of organizations need to take intoaccount the conceptual frameworks used by professionals. Thisgrounded theory study used data from nineteen focus groups andnine semi-structured interviews (ninety-nine staff in total)to explore perspectives on risk and decision-making regardingthe long-term care of older people. Focus group participantsand interviewees comprised social workers, care managers, consultantgeriatricians, general medical practitioners, community nurses,occupational therapists, home care managers and hospital dischargesupport staff. Social work and health care professionals conceptualizedrisk and its management according to six paradigms that appearedto be in a state of reciprocal tension: (i) Identifying andMeeting Needs; (ii) Minimizing Situational Hazards; (iii) Protectingthis Individual and Others; (iv) Balancing Benefits and Harms;(v) Accounting for Resources and Priorities; and (vi) Warinessof Lurking Conflicts. The effective translation into practiceof risk management strategies needs to address the complex andoften contradictory issues facing health and social servicesprofessionals.     

Shifting Standards and the Evaluation of Competence: Complexity in Gender-Based Judgment and Decision Making

Gender stereotypes regarding task competence may lead perceivers to set different standards for diagnosing competence in women versus men. Specifically, stereotypes may prompt lower minimum standards (or initial screening criteria) but higher confirmatory standards for women than men (Biernat & Kobrynowicz, 1997). In two studies simulating hiring decisions, predictions were that women would be (1) more likely than men to make a short list for a job but (2) less likely than men to be hired for the same job. Results were generally consistent with predictions only among female participants (Studies 1 and 2), among those exposed to a female experimenter (Study 1), and among those held accountable for their decisions (Study 2). The role of motivational factors in the setting of standards is discussed.     

Better May be Worse: Some Monotonicity Results and Paradoxes in Discrete Choice Under Uncertainty

It is not unusual in real-life that one has to choose among finitely many alternatives when the merit of each alternative is not perfectly known. Instead of observing the actual utilities of the alternatives at hand, one typically observes more or less precise signals that are positively correlated with these utilities. In addition, the decision-maker may, at some cost or disutility of effort, choose to increase the precision of these signals, for example by way of a careful study or the hiring of expertise. We here develop a model of such decision problems. We begin by showing that a version of the monotone likelihood-ratio property is sufficient, and also essentially necessary, for the optimality of the heuristic decision rule to always choose the alternative with the highest signal. Second, we show that it is not always advantageous to face alternatives with higher utilities, a non-monotonicity result that holds even if the decision-maker optimally chooses the signal precision. We finally establish an operational first-order condition for the optimal precision level in a canonical class of decision-problems, and we show that the optimal precision level may be discontinuous in the precision cost.     

Dominance and Efficiency in Multicriteria Decision under Uncertainty

This paper proposes several concepts of efficient solutions for multicriteria decision problems under uncertainty. We show how alternative notions of efficiency may be grounded on different decision contexts, depending on what is known about the Decision Maker's (DM) preference structure and probabilistic anticipations. We define efficient sets arising naturally from polar decision contexts. We investigate these sets from the points of view of their relative inclusions and point out some particular subsets which may be especially relevant to some decision situations.     

Older People and Permanent Care: Whose Decision?

This paper looks at decision making when older people enterpermanent care, and focuses on power issues. The recent pastis reviewed and related to aspects of the current picture. Dementiaand capacity are a specific focus. The complexities of the workfor practitioners, together with their sometimes difficult workingenvironments, engender a climate which can be counter productiveto protecting the self-determination of older people.     

Care without coercion – mental health rights,personal recovery and trauma‐informed care

Australian mental health services continue to use involuntary measures in response to consumers' mental distress. Regardless of the intent behind these practices, the experience of being forced to receive treatment, be secluded or restrained is traumatic and can cause further distress and harm. Other parts of the health or social service system have shifted to approaches that emphasise agency, social context, prevention, and rights. Three frameworks currently used in mental health services – human rights, personal recovery, and trauma‐informed – are consistent with a shift away from the use of force. We applied these frameworks to the text of the National Standards for Mental Health Services 2010 to analyse the degree to which it reflects a shift. We also analysed the public text of speakers' notes from the Care Without Coercion Conference 2012 concerning lived experiences of force in mental health services. The analysis highlights force in many aspects of policy. The findings have implications for directions of change, including freedom from violence; support for decision making; access and choice about community and inpatient options; safety and risk management; and greater understanding of current policy frameworks through engagement with people with lived experience about the options and impact of support processes that exclude the use of force.     

Instability and Convergence Under Simple-Majority Rule: Results from Simulation of Committee Choice in Two-Dimensional Space

Nondeterministic models of collective choice posit convergence among the outcomes of simple-majority decisions. The object of this research is to estimate the extent of convergence of majority choice under different procedural conditions. The paper reports results from a computer simulation of simple-majority decision making by committees. Simulation experiments generate distributions of majority-adopted proposals in two-dimensional space. These represent nondeterministic outcomes of majority choice by committees. The proposal distributions provide data for a quantitative evaluation of committee-choice procedures in respect to outcome convergence. Experiments were run under general conditions, and under conditions that restrict committee choice to several game-theoretic solution sets. The findings are that, compared to distributions of voter ideal points, majority-adopted proposals confined to the solution sets demonstrate different degrees of convergence. Second, endogenous agenda formation is a more important obstacle to convergence than the inherent instability of simple-majority rule. Third, if members maximize preferences in respect to agenda formation, a committee choice that approximates the central tendency of the distribution of voter preferences is unlikely. The conclusion is that the most effective way to increase the convergence of majority choice is to restrict the role of individual preferences in agenda formation: identification of proposals to be voted up or down by a committee. This revised version was published online in June 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

A Review of Adult Attachment Measures: Implications for Theory and Research

There has been increasing interest in adult attachment from both theoretical and empirical perspectives. Because the test of a theory is based on our ability to assess theoretical constructs, the review is organized around assessment techniques. Delineating the content, focus, assumptions, and correlates of different attachment measures highlights central issues and problems in conducting research in adult attachment. In this review, we present theoretical issues related to adult attachment, in particular, individual differences, working models, and the role of attachment in adult life. A summary of the measures commonly used in the study of adult attachment follows. The literature review is organized by measure, examining topics such as relations between childhood experiences and adult attachment status, and adult attachment and adult personality and functioning, parenting and partnership behavior. Studies which explore relations between measures are discussed before concluding with thoughts about future directions.     

Decision making with belief functions: Compatibility and incompatibility with the sure-thing principle

This article studies situations in which information is ambiguous and only part of it can be probabilized. It is shown that the information can be modeled through belief functions if and only if the nonprobabilizable information is subject to the principles of complete ignorance. Next the representability of decisions by belief functions on outcomes is justified by means of a neutrality axiom. The natural weakening of Savage's sure-thing principle to unambiguous events is examined and its implications for decision making are identified.The research of Peter Wakker has been made possible by a fellowship of the Royal Netherlands Academy of Arts and Sciences.     

Situational Crime Prevention and its Discontents: Rational Choice Theory versus the 'Culture of Now'

The rational choice theory of crime and its cognate field of study, situational crime prevention, have exerted a considerable influence in criminal justice policy and criminology. This article argues that, while undeniably useful as a means of reducing property or acquisitive crime, rational choice‐inspired situational crime prevention initiatives are limited when it comes to offering protection against a growing number of so‐called ‘expressive crimes’. Developing this critique, the article will criticize the sociologically hollow narrative associated with rational choice theories of crime by drawing on recent research in social theory and consumer studies. It argues that the growing tendency among many young individuals to engage in certain forms of criminal decision‐making ‘strategies’ may simply be the by‐product of a series of subjectivities and emotions that reflect the material values and cultural logic associated with late modern consumerism.