非婚生育社会抚养费征收难的思考与建议

非婚生子女指没有婚姻关系的男女所生的子女。近年来我国的非婚生子女有逐渐增长的趋势。以北京市海淀区为例,全国第六次人口普查后,北京市海淀区人口计生系统共上报非婚生育子女1 30人。尽管非婚生育子女的原因多种多样,但都日益面临一个现实的难题——孩子上幼儿园或上学需要户口,但非婚生育不征收社会抚养费便无法在当地办理入户。在我国当前的法制背景下,依法认定非婚生育行为并按规定征收社会抚养费,既关系国家人口计     

中国死亡独生子女母亲总量及变动趋势再研究

伴随我国生育水平降低,城镇地区独生子女家庭逐渐成为主流,面临较大的独生子女死亡风险。“七普”数据的公布为探究我国死亡独生子女母亲规模提供了更全面的数据资料,基于“四普”至“七普”数据,汇总不同子女数量的妇女规模,利用年龄移算的方法测算得到2020年已经退出育龄期的死亡独生子女母亲规模。结果显示,当前50岁及以上“曾生子女无子女”妇女规模约为288.8万人,其中50—59岁死亡独生子女母亲规模达到191.9万人,占当前死亡独生子女母亲总量的66.4%;“六普”数据中死亡独生子女母亲规模与“七普”数据缺乏一致性,基于“六普”数据到“七普”数据的打靶预测结果表明,“七普”数据可能高估当前死亡独生子女母亲规模;随着生育水平的下降、生育进度的推迟,未来妇女独生子女死亡风险提高,死亡独生子女母亲规模快速增长趋势将保持稳定。基于此,建议一方面加速构建生育支持体系,避免长期生育率低迷问题;另一方面也要进一步完善计划生育特殊家庭扶助制度,多部门协调扩大独生子女父母的养老扶助资源。     

我国妇女平均生育年龄动态分析(1960——1981年)

<正> 平均生育年龄是描述某一妇女人群生育年龄水平的综合性指标,是研究妇女生育状况的一个重要参数。建国以来,特别是七十年代以来,我国妇女的平均生育年龄发生了很大的变化。分析研究这一变化过程的基本情况和规律,完整、系统地描述它发展的历史和现状,对于今后研究我国人口发展战略及制定人口政策具有重要的意义。妇女平均生育年龄因受婚姻状况、社会经济因素、文化、生育意愿、生育政策等多种因素的制约,所以,各个时期的妇女平均生育年龄不尽相同,各有特点。妇女平均生育年龄可以分胎次进行研究。这样,便于了解各个不同历史时期妇女各胎次平均生育年龄的变化规律,并且可以加深对妇女不分胎次计算的平均生育年龄运动规律的认识。本文试从1982年全国千分之一人口生育率抽样调查机器汇总资料,对我国妇女1960——1981年各胎次及不分胎次计算的平均生育年龄的动态变化作一初步分析。     

未婚青年生育动机和生育需要的调查研究(一)

关于青年的生育动机和生育需要问题,国内已有人分别从社会学和社会心理学两个方面进行过研究,但对未婚青年的生育动机和生育需要进行专题研究,国内迄今尚未发现这一方面的报告.我们认为,在当前我国人口年龄特点青年化倾向占优势的情况下,为了抓早、抓好计划生育工作,首先必须使国家的生育计划与广大未婚青年的生育动机和生育需要之间的距离尽可能缩小.这是因为,一方面,如果国家生育计划与未婚青年的生育动机和生育需要过于脱节,就不利于国家生育计划的贯彻执行并招来青年对计划的不满;另一方面,     

90年代美籍华人的人口及婚育状态研究

用美国人口普查资料研究了美籍华人的人口总量及其变动特点,华人的地区分布、人口年龄性别构成,以及华人的结婚生育特点。分析表明,１９９０年全美１６４５５万华人中,第一代华人为５２５％,出生在美国的第二三代华裔为３０３％。加利福尼亚、纽约两个州的华人就占全美华人６０％以上。中国人口迁美的高峰年龄为２５～２９岁。与美国居民相比,华人妇女结婚迟,离婚率低,婚姻稳定。而她们的生育水平、早育及未婚母亲比例都非常低     

上海未婚妇女人工流产率及其变化趋势分析

近十几年来,不论是发展中国家还是发达国家,未婚妇女妊娠的现象相当普遍,并且妊娠率在许多国家不断上升。据有关专家估计,1987年全世界有4000～6000万妇女做人工流产,其中有一半左右是非法人工流产;在非法人工流产中,又有一半是未婚妇女。在中国,近年来未婚妊娠及人工流产逐渐增多。据报道,一些地区未婚妇女人工流产占人工流产总数的20～50％。国内以往对已婚妇女     

人口迁移流动与生育

<正> 八十年代以来,我国的计划生育工作取得了举世瞩目的成就。这期间,我国对人口生育状况的研究也取得了重大成果。但是,关于迁移流动人口中的生育状况研究,限于资料,尚不多见。1990年7月1日进行的第四次全国人口普查取得了最新的人口资料,包括妇女的户口状况、迁移状况、生育状况及其文化程度、行职业、婚姻等。本文以妇女平均存活子女数作为妇女生育高低的指标。它是妇女进入育龄期以来生育状况的集中反映;与生育子女数相比,更能显示我国计划生育工作的效果。     

孩次、生育时间与生育水平——基于中日韩妇女平均生育年龄变动与差异的机制研究

文章描述1990 ～2015年间中日韩三国妇女平均生育年龄的变化特征,揭示孩次结构和分孩次生育时间对平均生育年龄指标的影响,分析三国部及国家间妇女平均生育年龄时期变化与国别差异的影响机制.研究发现,观察期间中国妇女的平均生育年龄先下降后上升;平均生育年龄的提高是孩次减少与生育推迟共同作用的结果,后者的影响极为显著,但21世纪近5年的在机制表现值得关注.与日韩相比,中国妇女总体及分孩次的平均生育年龄都相对偏低;三国妇女的平均生育年龄上升态势后的在机制存在差异.文章还就平均生育年龄指标在衡量生育时间的准确性问题,以及全面两孩政策背景下生育时间在提升生育水平方面的政策意义进行讨论.     

对未婚先孕妇女使用避孕方法情况的初步研究

随着我国未婚青年涉入性关系的年龄提前和趋于普遍,研究未婚人群避孕方法的特点、规律和实际障碍,对于防止妇女婚前怀孕,降低未婚妇女人工流产率以及探究对该人群的计划生育服务需求有着重要的政策指导意义。本文使用复旦大学人口研     

2000-2010年中国育龄妇女生育完成度变化分析

新中国成立以来,妇女不论在社会活动领域还是家庭领域的地位都有了质的变化。妇女可以参与各种政治、经济、文化娱乐等活动,有的妇女在家庭领域的地位甚至超过了丈夫。尽管妇女受教育程度提高了,但与男性相比还有一定的差距。有研究表明:受教育程度和生育水平呈负相关,尤其是母亲的受教育水平影响更显著。由于教育的影响,妇女的生育水平和生育时间都发生了很大的变化。文章利用最近两次中国人口普查数据来研究育龄妇女的生育年龄的完成度变化情况,并对中国目前TFR很低的现象做了解释,据此推断中国在未来几年的时间,总和生育率会在一定程度上呈上升的变化趋势,但不可能在短期内回升到更替水平。     

The roles of child support enforcement and welfare in non-marital childbearing

This paper examines the effects of stronger child support enforcement and declines in welfare benefits on changes in non-marital childbearing between 1980 and 1996. Economic theory suggests that stricter child support enforcement will increase the costs of children for unwed fathers, making them less likely to have a child outside marriage. Reductions in welfare benefits also are expected to increase the costs of non-marital childbearing for both mothers and fathers. We examine these hypotheses, using aggregate state-level data and fixed effects regression models to identify the effects of policies on non-marital birth rates. We find that both stricter child support enforcement and declines in welfare benefits deter non-marital births. However, the estimated effects of child support enforcement are more robust and larger than those of welfare. The estimates imply that in the 1980–1996 period, increases in child support enforcement led to a decline in non-marital birth rates in the range of 6% to 9%, whereas decreases in welfare benefits led to a decline in the range of 2% to 4%. Received: 28 June 2000/Accepted: 17 September 2001     

The living arrangements of new unmarried mothers

We use data from the Fragile Families and Child Wellbeing Study to describe the living arrangements of new, unwed mothers and to examine the selection process that underlies choices of living arrangements. Our analysis goes beyond previous studies by examining a wide diversity of living arrangements for a homogenous sample of recent unwed mothers and by using information on both parents' demographic and human capital characteristics and the quality of their relationships. We find that about half the new unwed mothers are cohabiting at the time their children are born, and only 17% are living alone. We also find that mothers' choices of living arrangements are significantly related to parents' human capital, the quality of their relationship, and the cost of housing.     

Family influences on family size preferences

Several studies have demonstrated important effects of parents’ childbearing behavior on their children’s childbearing preferences and behavior. The study described here advances our understanding of these family influences by expanding the theoretical model to include parental preferences, siblings’ behavior, and changes in children’s preferences through early adulthood. Using intergenerational panel data from mothers and their children, we test the effects of both mothers’ preferences for their own fertility and mothers’ preferences for their children’s fertility. Although both types of maternal preferences influence children’s childbearing preferences, mothers’ preferences for their children’s behavior have the stronger and more proximate effects. Mothers’ preferences continue to influence their children’s preferences through early adulthood; siblings’ fertility is an additional determinant of children’s family size preferences.     

The impact of economic resources on premarital childbearing and subsequent marriage among young American women

This paper extends previous work on premarital childbearing by modeling both the entry rates and the exit rates of unwed motherhood among young American women. In particular, I investigate the impact of economic resources on the likelihood of experiencing a premarital birth and then of subsequent marriage. Using a multiple-destination, multiple-spell hazard regression model and a microsimulation analysis, I analyze the accumulating effects of various economic variables. The results show that the economic resources are indeed important both for premarital childbearing and for subsequent marriage. However, the simulations show that large changes in these economic variables do not necessarily translate into large changes in nonmarital childbearing.     

Nonmarital cohabitation and fertility in the United States and Western Europe

The increasing popularity of nonmarital cohabitation and a decline in marriage rates in the United States and Western Europe has led to a growing research interest in cohabitation without marriage and its relationship to traditional marriage. This article examines the evidence on the prevalence of cohabitation and the characteristics of cohabitants, and focuses on the childbearing behavior of cohabiting couples who are not married. The evidence to date suggests that in Denmark and Sweden cohabitation is widespread, especially among young people, and childbearing within cohabitational unions is relatively common. In the rest of Western Europe and in the United States, cohabitation is less common and fertility is less frequent. Fertility will be affected to the extent that couples delay having children until they are married. Policy and law concerning cohabitants and their children are changing rapidly. Most of these changes have resulted in a blurring of the distinctions between married and unmarried couples and between legitimate and illegitimate children.     

The private and societal economic costs of teenage childbearing: The state of the research

The most significant individual costs of teenage childbearing are associated with truncated educations and lost human capital investment. Among the most significant direct public costs are the expenditures of just three government programs: AFDC, Food Stamps, and Medicaid. An important public cost of teenage childbearing overlooked by many researchers is the cost to U.S. productivity of large numbers of undereducated and impoverished mothers in the work force, and the intergenerational transfer of this impoverishment to their children. Any restrictions on abortion will likely increase unwanted teenage fertility, and its associated costs, particularly among the disadvantaged.     

Intergenerational patterns of teenage fertility

One of the frequently cited consequences of teen childbearing is the repetition of early births across generations, which thereby perpetuates a cycle of poverty and disadvantage. We use data from the 1988 National Survey of Family Growth (NSFG), Cycle IV, to examine trends and determinants of the intergenerational teen fertility link for women who reached adolescence between the 1950s and the 1980s. We find that daughters of both white and black teen mothers face significantly higher risks of teen childbearing than daughters of older mothers. We also find, more generally, that patterns of teenage family formation (i.e., both marriage and childbearing behaviors) tend to be repeated intergenerationally. The results suggest that the intrafamily propensity for early childbearing is not inherited biologically, at least not through factors related to the timing of puberty. Rather, the intergenerational patterns appear to operate at least in part through the socioeconomic and family context in which children grow up.     

The influence of nonmarital childbearing on the formation of first marriages

We document a negative association between nonmarital childbearing and the subsequent likelihood of first marriage in the United States, controlling for a variety of potentially confounding influences. Nonmarital childbearing does not appear to be driven by low expectations of future marriage. Rather, it tends to be an unexpected and unwanted event, whose effects on a woman’s subsequent likelihood of first marriage are negative on balance. We find that women who bear a child outside marriage and who receive welfare have a particularly low probability of marrying subsequently, although there is no evidence that AFDC recipients have lower expectations of marriage. In addition, we find no evidence that stigma associated with nonmarital childbearing plays an important role in this process or that the demands of children significantly reduce unmarried mothers’ time for marriage market activities.     

Childbearing Across Partnerships in Australia,the United States,Norway, and Sweden

This article compares mothers’ experience of having children with more than one partner in two liberal welfare regimes (the United States and Australia) and two social democratic regimes (Sweden and Norway). We use survey-based union and birth histories in Australia and the United States and data from national population registers in Norway and Sweden to estimate the likelihood of experiencing childbearing across partnerships at any point in the childbearing career. We find that births with new partners constitute a substantial proportion of all births in each country we study. Despite quite different arrangements for social welfare, the determinants of childbearing across partnerships are very similar. Women who had their first birth at a very young age or who are less well-educated are most likely to have children with different partners. The educational gradient in childbearing across partnerships is also consistently negative across countries, particularly in contrast to educational gradients in childbearing with the same partner. The risk of childbearing across partnerships increased dramatically in all countries from the 1980s to the 2000s, and educational differences also increased, again, in both liberal and social democratic welfare regimes.     

Unwed fathers’ ability to pay child support: New estimates accounting for multiple-partner fertility

We present new estimates of unwed fathers’ ability to pay child support. Prior research relied on surveys that drastically undercounted nonresident unwed fathers and provided no link to their children who lived in separate households. To overcome these limitations, previous research assumed assortative mating and that each mother partnered with one father who was actually eligible to pay support and had no other child support obligations. Because the Fragile Families and Child Wellbeing Study contains data on couples, multiple-partner fertility, and a rich array of other previously unmeasured characteristics of fathers, it is uniquely suited to address the limitations of previous research. We also use an improved method of dealing with missing data. Our findings suggest that previous research overestimated the aggregate ability of unwed nonresident fathers to pay child support by 33% to 60%.