Purchase expectations and the demand for consumer durables

This article reviews the use of buying intentions anil purchase expectations data in consumer surveys and forecasts of the likely level of consumer demand. It notes the decline in their use and the disappointing experience where attempts have been made to use such information in time series forecasts. The stronger cross-sectional predictive performance is discussed and it is argued that this is of relevance to researchers and forecasters. Suggestions are made as to ways in which purchase expectations data might he more effectively collected and used in future.     

ESTIMATING DYNAMIC EULER EQUATIONS WITH MULTIVARIATE PROFESSIONAL FORECASTS

Dynamic Euler equations restrict multivariate forecasts and so can be estimated and tested using the predictions of professional forecasters. We illustrate this novel, empirical method by studying the links between forecasts of U.S. nominal interest rates, inflation, and real consumption growth since 1981. Using forecast data for both returns and macroeconomic fundamentals exploits the complete panel of forecasts from the Survey of Professional Forecasters, which yields 3,400 observations, many more than the 117 quarterly time‐series observations. Harnessing the full panel enhances precision in testing asset‐pricing models and may avoid aggregation bias. We find clear evidence for the Fisher effect but mixed evidence of a relationship between expectations of real interest rates and real consumption growth. (JEL E17, E21, E43)     

Social Support,Unfulfilled Expectations,and Affective Well‐being on Return to Employment

We conducted a longitudinal study to investigate how social support from the partner is related to mothers' affective well‐being during their return to employment after maternity leave and whether expectations of that support have an additional impact. We differentiated four forms of support and their respective expectation discrepancies: emotional, instrumental, informational, and companionship. Further, we included the impact of meeting specific support expectations. A convenience sample of 288 women filled out questionnaires 2 weeks before reentry and then 1 month and 2 months afterward. Social support was associated with well‐being, with emotional support having the strongest positive impact. Informational and instrumental support either were not related or were negatively related to affective well‐being. Expectations had an additional influence but were inconsistently associated with affect. They became more important over time.     

Endogenizing consumers' expectations in four major EC countries

This article examines the relationship between consumers' opinions and a number of measurable economic variables. It concludes that consumers' opinions are not easily explained by economic variables only. The implication is that consumer surveys do actually contain original information. helpful in very short-term forecasting. The paper invalidates previous investigations on the basic characteristics of opinion variables.     

Gender bias in the classroom: A network study on self and peer ability attribution

Stereotypes can contribute to the gender gap in STEM by shaping people’s expectations on their own and others’ performance. When gender is salient, expectations on task performance might reflect gender constructs even when information on individual abilities is available. We tested this hypothesis in a network study on students from ten high school classes in Milan, Italy. We asked the students to choose the four best candidates from their classmates for three hypothetical inter-class competitions in reading, math, and science. Results showed that females were more likely to be nominated for the reading competition but less likely for science. We did not find any statistically significant results for the math competition. We also found that female students were less likely to nominate themselves for any competition, regardless of the subject, even controlling for their own performance and self-concept.     

MONETARY POLICY SHOCKS,EXPECTATIONS, AND INFORMATION RIGIDITIES

This paper contributes to the literature by assessing expectation effects from monetary policy for G7 economies. We rely on expectation data from Consensus Economics and a panel vector autoregression framework, which accounts for international spillovers and time‐variation. We analyze whether monetary policy has changed the degree of information rigidity after the emergence of the subprime crisis and estimate effects of interest rate changes on expectations, disagreements, and forecast errors. We find strong evidence for information rigidities and identify higher forecast errors by professionals after monetary policy shocks. Our results suggest that the international transmission of monetary policy shocks introduces noisy information and partly increases disagreement among forecasters. (JEL E31, E52)     

Fear of the "Alien Other": Cultural Anxiety and Opinions about Japan

American public opinion toward Japan grew more negative coincident with 1980s "Japan-bashing" media messages. Two theories of opinion formation provide explanations for this. Democratic representation theory understands opinions as rational responses to new information. Cultural interpretation theory holds that public opinion is based on one's receptiveness to media discourse. Opinion is neither a rational response to information nor the passive acceptance of elite dictates. People differentially interpret media messages and form opinions in a process that is shaped by media attentiveness and their subjective cultural anxieties. Survey data permit an indirect test of the two theories applied to anti-Japan opinion. OLS regression analysis performed on GSS for four time periods reveals that anti-Japan opinion is rooted less in "rational" responses to personal economic insecurity or fear of increased global competition than in racial attitudes and domestic social-cultural concerns. America's negative opinion toward Japan in the 1990s is better understood as domestic anxieties that are redirected toward a symbolic target that the mass media has highlighted.     

Influencing Client Expectations About Career Counseling Using a Videotaped Intervention

Realistic client expectations about career counseling are essential to positive client outcomes. The authors investigated a videotaped intervention designed to influence participants' expectations about career counseling using a pretest/posttest experimental design. As measured by the Expectations About Counseling‐Brief Form (H. E. A. Tinsley, 1982), undergraduate participants who watched the videotaped intervention significantly increased their expectations of personal commitment to career counseling and decreased their expectations of counselor expertise compared with participants who watched a control videotape. A secondary hypothesis, that changes in expectations would positively affect attitudes toward career counseling as measured by the Attitudes Toward Career Counseling Scale (A. R. Rochlen, J. J. Mohr, & B. K. Hargrove, 1999), was not supported.     

Changing generations in today's workforce: Leadership skills for Millennials

The focus of traditional leadership expectations is the individual leader's developmental experience. However, Millennials are seeking to take on leadership roles more quickly than previous generations. The Practice‐Immediacy Model provides a framework where Millennials can take on these leadership roles while continuing to develop their own behavior and skills. The present article expands on the four basic behavioral components of leadership—vision building, standard‐bearing, integrating, and developing. The article then describes the associated specific skills within each behavioral component. Finally, the article proposes an interdisciplinary model that professionals can use to develop leadership skills for Millennials.     

Broadening the Concept of Expectations in Public Relations

Expectations have been connected to many central concepts of public relations research, yet definitions of what is meant by expectations are lacking. This article aims to broaden the understanding of expectations by taking into account their multidimensional nature, suggesting that there are several explanations to expectations depending on what the expectation is based on. We suggest that, in organizational context, expectations are two-fold assessments of what is considered good or desirable (expectation tone ranging from positive to negative) and the confidence placed in the organization (organization-specific context ranging from high to low confidence). As a result of the conceptual review with theoretical input from areas outside the scope of public relations, the article presents the Expectation Grid, where expectations are acknowledged as continuums of tone and context.     

From Economic Gains to Social Losses

This paper analyzes how stories shaped treasurers’ expectations in municipal swap activities and contributes to the sociological debate on the mechanisms of expectation formation. Employing a deductive variant of process tracing, it synthesizes the literature on expectations in economic decision making with the literature on the diffusion of “ideas,” “myths,” and “fashions” in organization theory and management studies. The swap story has spread since the mid-1990s among German municipalities. At the heart of this story is the replacement of traditional borrowing with active portfolio optimization; financial instruments known as swaps play a leading role. This paper examines how stories shape expectations. Specifically, it delves into how the swap story, as a solution to the financial woes of local governments, shaped these governments’ expectations despite the uncertainty resulting from the instruments’ complexity. We argue that the effect of stories on expectations depends on timing. Expectations at an early stage are shaped by economic analyses to reduce uncertainty, while expectations at a later stage are primarily shaped by societal pressures and an established trend. These two distinct mechanisms produce expectations related to economic and social consequences, respectively. Selecting four typical cases, our analysis confirms that stories affected the formation of treasurers’ expectations regarding the use of swaps through these different mechanisms.     

The Effect of Expectations on the Transition to Parenthood

Abstract

The purpose of this study was to determine the relationship between expectations of first-time parenthood and ease of transition into the role of parent. Respondents voluntarily completed questionnaires during hospital prenatal classes or natural childbirth classes; postnatal questionnaires were mailed to respondents six weeks after the birth of their child. Both the prenatal expectations and the postnatal ease of transition were measured by a 34-item checklist which tapped both positive and negative aspects of parenthood. A hierarchical, stepwise regression procedure was employed in order to examine separately the effects of expectations and control variables.

Prenatal expectations, age and education exhibited significant relationships with ease of transition to the role of parent: prenatal expectations and age were positively related to ease of transition, while education was negatively related. Expectations of an experience appear to be a strong determinant of the perception of that experience. It was suggested that this might be due to the “self-fulfilling prophecy” or to an attitudinal component of anticipatory socialization.     

ARE INVESTMENT EXPECTATIONS RATIONAL,ADAPTIVE OR REGRESSIVE?

A unique previously unavailable dataset is employed to study the nature of expectations formed by manufacturing plants as they plan their own capital expenditures. Both conventional rational expectations and adaptive expectations hypotheses are found to be inconsistent with the data, which instead favor a regressive expectations formation process. These results, obtained using real‐world data on plants, further develop the growing recent literature on survey expectations and the information about economic models that can be gleaned from them. (JEL E22, C23, C83)     

Automobile gasoline consumption: A repeated survey

Understanding the factors contributing to household automobile gasoline consumption can assist decision-makers involved in energy management programs and energy demand forecasts. This article provides a predictive model of gasoline consumption and the results of regression analyses based on data collected from the same households at two different time periods.The analyses tested a range of explanatory variables and found that two variables, number of cylinders and commuting distances, were the major determinants of gasoline consumption. As well. a number of other variables were related to consumption. Further, it was found that one regression model could he used to explain consumption for the two different time periods. It was concluded that consumers, in this study, had not modified their driving patterns over the two time periods under investigation.     

Teaching Children With Autism Spectrum Disorder to Mand “Why?”

For most children with autism spectrum disorder (ASD), manding for information is an important skill that must be systematically taught. Although previous studies have evaluated interventions for teaching other mands for information, to date no studies have demonstrated effective procedures for teaching the mand “why?” The purpose of the present study was to teach 3 children with ASD to mand “why?” under relevant establishing operation conditions in 3 distinct scenarios. A trial-unique multiple-exemplar procedure was used to promote generalization and increase the value of information provided across trials. All 3 participants learned to mand “why?” in all 3 scenarios within a mean of 18 sessions (range 14–21 sessions), demonstrated generalization to novel stimuli and settings, and maintained this skill over time. Social validity for the intervention had an overall mean of 5.88 (range 1–7).     

On the formation of inflationary expectations: Some empirical evidence from Finland, 1979–1980

The results of a survey of inflationary expectations executed in 1979–1980 are reported. The respondents form one “informed” and one “uninformed” group. The purpose of the study are: (1) to test standard hypotheses on the formation of inflationary expectations, (2) to study the term structure of those expectations, (3) to study their dispersion among individuals, (4) to investigate the uncertainty in the formation of expectations.The results suggest that the adaptive expectations formation model works best for the uninformed group, while the extrapolative model is more satisfactory for the informed group. The lagged rate of unemployment was found to be a significant explanatory variable as well. Long-run inflationary expectations turned out to be very similar to short-run predictions, although the dispersion among individuals was greater in the former case. The uninformed respondents also expressed expectations with a greater dispersion than the informed respondents. The standard deviation of the expectations was quite stable over the observation period. The proxy used for subjective uncertainty also indicates a high degree of stability.