世界人口增长与经济发展

世界人口增长与经济发展梁济民，王洪春第二次世界大战之后，世界经济有了很大发展，但是人口也有很大增长，并且人口增长对经济发展的制约关系越来越明显。因此，采取积极有效的措施，抑制人口过快增长和促进经济发展，就成为９０年代大多数发展中国家所面临的共同任务，...     

战后发达国家人口发展的特点与经济

人口问题既是社会问题,也是重要的经济问题。世界经济发展的历史表明,任何一个国家人口的发展状况,对该国的经济发展都有重大的影响。二次大战后,发展中国家人口的高速增长、城市化和年轻化,直接延缓了这些国家经济发展的速度。而战后,发达国家人口发展的特点与发展中国家有什么不同?发达国家在不存在影响经济发展的人口问题?这些都是大家极为关注的。与发展中国家相比,战后发达国家人口发展有下列诸特点:     

经济发展对劳动力人口需求容量

我国是一个发展中国家,发展中国家的劳动人口需求不仅决定于经济增长,而且还决定于经济发展。经济增长是指一国或一个地区的产品和劳动总量的不断增长,即货币形式的国民生产总值的不断增长;而经济发展是指一国或一个地区在经济增长的基础上,其经济结构和社会结构的不断高度化。就与劳动力人口需求有关的发展看,还包括:资源     

论人口控制政策对突破低水平均衡陷阱的促进作用

当今世界主题是和平与发展,因此经济发展成为多数国家政府政策的中心。目前多数发展中国家实施了人口控制政策,这有利于减缓世界人口剧增的趋势。但是这是否有利于发展中国家的经济发展呢?文章结合一定前提,通过定性探讨纳尔逊低水平均衡理论在人口非自然增长情况下的具体体现,得出了结论:发展中国家实施人口控制政策能够降低突破低水平均衡陷阱的机会成本,有助于加快走出低水平均衡陷阱困境的状态;长期实施过紧的人口控制政策不利于国家经济的可持续发展;人口控制政策的松绑是一个渐进式过程。     

关于人口与经济发展关系问题的思考

控制人口、发展经济是多数发展中国家面临的两大压力。是先控制高速增长的人口,为未来的经济发展创造较为宽松的资源环境,还是集中力量推进工业化进程,静候经济发展带来自然的人口转变;抑或将两者结合起来,制定全面协调的发展战     

人口经济学的与时俱进——《人口经济学》评介

<正>第二次世界大战结束后,伴随着世界人口特别是发展中国家人口的增长及其对经济发展的强烈追求,人口与经济发展的关系成为20世纪后半叶最引人关注的全球性议题,人口经济学也成为一个具有挑战性和富有魅力的研究领域。在我国,计划生育的开展和改革开放后经济的高速增长,使人口经济问题呈现出更突出、更复杂的态势,人口增长、人口红利、劳动力流动、城乡迁移、老龄化、少子化等问题强烈影响着中国社会经济的发展,也提供了更多影响     

论经济增长质量与人口效应

经济增长质量与人口效应,是一个尚未引起足够重视,但又至关重要的现实性很强的问题。实践证明,在追求经济增长时,必须充分重视人口效应,才能更有效地提高经济增长质量,形成以提高效率为中心的良性经济循环,加速经济发展。当前深入研究与解决这个问题,对于发展中国家特别是人口     

降低人口增长速度有助于经济发展

联合国人口基金《1992年世界人口状况报告》指出降低人口增长速度将有助于经济发展。根据资料统计,1970-1985年,发展中国家的贫困人口比例从55％降到44％,同时食物的供应也得到了很大的改善。但是,由于人口的高速增长,同期贫困人口数量却增加了2.1亿,挨饿的人数增加了5000万人,未能接受中等教育的人数增加了6000万人。由此可见,发展中国家要摆脱贫困、饥饿和愚昧,必须降低人口增长速度。     

人口增长对经济增长的影响分析 --与胡鞍钢博士商榷

在我国及绝大多数发展中国家,控制人口增长有利于经济发展.但是,现有的理论研究还不能完全揭示人口与经济相互作用的内在机制,现有的实证研究往往因为数据质量不佳、定性分析失当、定量分析欠妥等原因,尚不能准确反映人口变动与经济增长有关指标的数量关系.     

我国人口发展的现状与问题

我国是一个幅员辽阔、人口众多的发展中国家。70年代以来,中国政府大力推行控制人口增长、使人口与社会经济协调发展的政策,在发展经济、提高人民生活水平、控制人口增长、降低出生率和死亡率方面取得子巨大成就。但是,由于人口的巨大惯性,我国人口仍然以每年净增1600万人左右的速度增长。中国大陆总人口已于1991年年中达11.5亿。巨大的和不断增长的人口对我国的自然资源和生态环境造成了巨大的压力,也给经济发展带来了很多困难。     

Persistent efforts must continue to be made

Evidence has continuously suggested that population growth in a particular country is closely related to its social stability and economic development. Statistics show that the population growth in the developing countries accounts for 90% of the world's total increase, and the growth rate in those countries is the highest. Therefore, the population problem is of a more serious nature to the developing countries. Unless this problem is solved or at least alleviated, it would be extremely difficult for many developing countries to shed poverty, develop their national economies, and raise standards of living. On the other hand, the trend of growth of the world population and the high rate of population growth in the developing countries will inevitably have grave consequences affecting, directly or indirectly, the economic stability and development of developed countries. These consequences would also affect world peace. The population problem is therefore both a national and an international issue. While each country should take the problem seriously and work hard to tackle it according to its own conditions, all countries in the world should come together to address the problem and make joint efforts for its settlement or alleviation. It is inspiring that the "Day of 5 Billion" has caught global attention and is being observed throughout the world with massive support.     

从人口数量经济理论到人口质量经济理论的演进——对西方学者关于人口与经济关系认识的回顾与评述

人口经济理论的发展是一个逐渐由数量经济理论向质量经济理论的演进过程。在严格控制人口数量的同时,重视并加大人力资本投入,提高人口质量,是我国的现实选择。     

Population growth and economic development

The paper deals with the relationship between the population growth and economic development in Yugoslavia and its republics, covering the period after the Second World War. Yugoslavia is a developing country with a specific demographic and economic structure which makes her unique in Europe. Its territory is comprised of both relatively developed regions where demographic transition is over, and underdeveloped regions with high natural increase of population where the demographic transition is only just beginning. Correlation and regression methods were used to quantify this relationship. The economic development and structural changes are discussed, relating to human factor. An adequate population policy through family planning is stressed as important in obtaining an increased return to scale with a more positive role of demographic factor.     

负担还是红利：新疆人口迁入与经济增长关系的量化研究

针对新疆人口净迁入急剧减少、人才流失加剧、劳动力出现有限供给,政府劳动力政策出现偏差等现象,分别从贡献率与边际效应两个视角对人口迁入与经济增长的关系进行了量化研究。根据改进后的经济增长率分解法测算了人口迁入对经济增长的贡献率后发现,1978-2013年,人口净迁入使新疆经济年均增长1个百分点。根据新古典经济增长核算理论与拓展的C-D生产函数测算了劳动力对经济增长的边际效应后发现,人口净迁移率每提高1个百分点,经济增长率可以提高0.24个百分点。量化研究的结果表明,新疆一直以来是我国主要的人口迁入地区,人口迁入并不构成新疆经济发展的负担,反而为经济发展带来了红利。     

Irrational international economic order is an obstacle

China is a socialist and developing country. As the most populous country in the world, China has a population now of over 1 billion, making up more than 1/5 of the total world population. However, China has a rather poor economic and educational foundation to start with. This is particularly true in the rural areas, where 80% of the total population lives. The problem of population increase and decrease in arable land has grown more acute. Hence, the Chinese Government has been promoting family planning since the 1970s. The Constitution of the People's Republic of China explicitly stipulates that "the state promotes family planning so that population growth may fit the plan for economic and social development." Thanks to the implementation of the basic state policy of family planning, the blind population growth is turning into a planned one. It is estimated by the fertility rate of the 1970s that 200 million births have been averted during the last 16 years. Thus, China has made contributions to the stability of the world's population. Were China to allow its population to grow blindly instead of having practiced family planning over the past 10 years, the world population would be substantially over 5 billion by the middle of this year.     

The population and economic issues in West Asia after WW II]

Using statistical data, this report analyzes population and economic issues in West Asia after World War II. The high rate of development as witnessed in West Asian countries after their gaining of political independence following World War II was accompained by an accelerated population growth. This population growth spead unevenly among different areas. Based on surveys of 17 countries in West Asia, the socioeconomic development and rapid rate of population growth have largely affected the population age, sex, urban and rural residential, and economic sector employment structures. With the help of indicators and mathematical methods to plot population development, these countries can be divided into 3 categories based on population development features. The semiindustrial countries demonstrate a gradually slowing population growth rate, most of these countries having experienced a peak period in the growth rate during the time of population transition. The agricultural countries show a natural population growth rate which is generally considered low. The 3rd category, the oil-producing countries, are currently experiencing a peak in population growth. In general, the popuation growth rate has dramatically accelerated in West Asia since World War II. Between 1950-1960 this rate was 2.58%; between 1960-1970, 2.75%; and between 1970-1980, 2.92%. This rate shows an increase of 6.6% between 1950-1960 and 6.2% between 1960-1970. It surpasses the average world population growth rate and most of the developing country growth rates. It has been augmented by post-World War II economic and social developments.     

苏南经济发展与外来人口增长

2005年苏南地区凭借着占全国0．29％国土面积、1．74％的人口．创造了全国6．26％的GDP．2000—2005年苏南人均GDP以15％以上的年速增长。苏南地区的良好社会经济发展态势得益于苏南得天独厚的天时地利人和．其中农民工是苏南地区经济建设、社会发展不可缺少的重要组成部分之一。苏南也是我国计划生育工作开展最早、最好的地区之一。但是现在苏南的出生人口越来越少、家庭规模越来越小,劳动力严重缺乏。2000—2005年苏南年平均人口自然增长率为1．54‰,为全国平均水平的1/3。苏南社会经济的发展,特别是建筑业制造业的发展．吸引了大量的外地劳动力。2005年人口抽样调查表明,苏南流入人口占苏南居民人口的比重由5年前的22％增长到28％。2000—2005年苏南流动人口年均增长6．7％。流动人口为苏南市政建设、经济建设提供了38％以上的贡献份额：同时也加剧了公共资源的紧张程度．     

实现小康社会目标与人口、社会经济可持续发展

人口发展速度过快、数量增长过多,将减少人均GDP的占有量,影响全面建设小康社会经济发展目标的实现和经济社会的可持续发展。继续稳定现行生育政策仍然是21世纪前半叶我国人口、社会经济可持续发展的基本战略决策。     

On the relationship between population and economic development--celebrating the 35th anniversary of the founding of the People's Republic of China]

Population is very closely linked to the economic development of a society. The quantity, quality, structure, distribution, and movement of a population can help or hinder the rate of economic development. A developed country with low population density and a low percentage of employable people needs an increase in population in order to keep up with economic development. On the other hand, for an underdeveloped country with high population density and a high percentage of employable people, any increase in population will be detrimental to its economy. Man is a producer as well as a consumer, and in order to balance the rate of production and the rate of consumption, a certain poulation level must be maintained. The status of the economy determines the appropriate level. Population policy must be developed according to the following guidelines: 1) it must be based on the society's economic development; 2) since economy and population are closely related, they must both be worked on at the same time; and 3) both the quantity and quality of life of the population must also be worked on at the same time. Dealing with the relationship between population and the economic development of a society properly can bring about rapid improvement in the economic development and standard of living of that society.     

人口政策与人力资源开发

人口政策是宏观调控人口数量和质量的政策 ,是对国家未来发展具有决定性影响的战略政策。一个国家的人口政策如何 ,将会极大地影响这个国家的人口发展 ,影响人力资源的发展方向和发展趋势 ,进而影响到国家未来社会经济的发展和国家的综合国力。我国的人口政策 ,在促使人力资源数量与社会经济发展相适应 ,提高人力资源的身体素质和科学文化素质 ,促进人力资源的合理利用方面 ,发挥了巨大的作用 ,产生了巨大的经济效益和社会效益