The impact of India’s food security policy on domestic and international rice market

Food security policy making in India is at crossroads. India has emerged as a leading rice exporter. The Government of India has introduced the National Food Security Act which requires 33.6 million tons of rice per year for its public food distribution system. In this study, we modeled India’s rice market and analyzed policy implications of the long-term impact of India’s food security act on domestic and international rice market. We developed a structural economic demand and supply model for India’s rice market and further added subsidy equations to trace the consequence of National Food Security Act on domestic rice consumption and on the international market. We specifically focus on three different scenarios: subsidy as price effect, subsidy as inelastic income effect, and subsidy as elastic income effect under the broader framework of National Food Security Act. We found that at the end of the projection period (2024–2025), as a result of rice subsidy program, the consumption of rice increases significantly in the case of price effect while the inelastic income effect has no or less impact on production, consumption, and export of rice. Hence, the policy implication of our study is that if the objective of the National Food Security Act is to increase consumption then it needs to be implemented as price effect.     

Food security, consumption diversification and foreign exchange balances in Indonesia: Results from a multi-commodity simulation

Many countries adopt economic development strategies, within which an important element is the maintenance of low and stable food prices. In Indonesia, this is achieved principally through government subsidies to consumers of imported rice, the total cost of which fluctuates considerably from year to year, depending on world price movements and domestic production performance. Higher and possibly less stable domestic food prices appear inevitable in Indonesia, however, as the spectre of reduced oil revenues increases the government's concern with the cost of its food policy. Results from a stochastic simulation model of the agricultural sector show that the food price risk to which consumers and producers would be exposed in the absence of the stabilizing component of Indonesia's food policy would be considerable, rendering this component an unlikely area for significant change. A viable policy option appears to be the continuance of rice and wheat price stabilization, but with a graduated increase in the relative price of rice, reaching a total of 10% by 1985. Such a policy could result in net self-sufficiency in foreign exchange from staple food trade by 1990 and an improvement in aggregate economic surplus, although the expected decade improvement in food-energy consumption per capita would fall from 10% to 8%.     

我国商品住宅价格调控政策效果研究

1998年以来,我国房地产行业发展迅速,并逐步成为国民经济的支柱产业,极大地推动了我国的经济增长。但房价的过快增长也增加了人们的生活压力,并对经济运行造成不利影响。为了抑制房价的过快增长,国家推出了一系列的调控政策,包括金融政策、土地政策和税收政策。2010年政府推出了限购政策,通过抑制需求来控制房价。研究表明:1998至2002年的调控政策取得了较好的效果;2003至2008年调控效果不佳;2008年底至2009年政府并没有对房价进行有力调控;2009年末至2012年初,限购令的效果非常明显。     

Simulating alternative foodgrain price and trade policies: An application for the Dominican Republic

Self-sufficiency and free trade are two of the most frequently advocated foodgrain policies. This paper presents a methodology for simulating the impact of thse two policy alternatives on a country's production, consumption, farm price, retail price and trade of a staple foodgrain. Simple formulas are also derived for estimating the effect of different policies on consumer and producer welfare. A simulation of the two policy alternatives is conducted for the case of rice in the Dominican Republic.     

Foodgrain price stabilization: Implications of private storage and subsidized food distribution

Through simulation exercises, this paper explores the implications of private storage and subsidized distribution of foodgrain for price stabilization policies in India. A multi-market equilibrium approach is used to incorporate the simultaneity in the determination of supply and demand for the three major cereals, namely, rice, wheat, and coarse cereals. The policy implications of the results obtained are relevant to the current debate on agricultural policy reforms in India.     

Codependent Cycles of Chinese Inflation

对我国通胀率、农产品价格和M2等三个变量进行相依性周期的检验与分解表明,农产品价格周期波动剧烈,在很大程度上为“圈地”等导致的粮价波动以及诸如猪肉价格暴涨暴跌等因素对农产品价格的冲击效应。阕此,将现行的粮食收购保护价改革为粮食生产保护价与销售保护价,将减弱粮价等因素对农产品价格和通胀的冲击强度。农产品价格与通胀率和M2的周期弱相依,M2与通胀率的周期强相依,它们周期成分的交点形成“梭形”,说明我国货币政策目标在抑制通胀和促进增长之间交替转换。在农产品价格周期处于基本平稳时,可实施适度宽松的货币政策刺激经济增长,但其扩张幅度应以M2的相依周期成分扩大至1．5左右为宜;在农产品价格怏速上涨或者周期成分的上升期,应以抑制农产品价格为先导,刺激经济增长的适度宽松货币政策宜延缓至农产品价格周期处于平稳或者下行期,再予以实施。     

Codependent Cycles of Chinese Inflation

A test and decomposition of the codependent cycles of the consumer price index (CPI), agricultural producer price index (APPI) and M2 reveals that the sharp cyclical fluctuations in agricultural producer prices largely stem from the grain price fluctuations induced by factors such as land enclosure and the impact on APP of the abrupt changes in pork prices and other factors. Therefore, changing the current policy of grain purchasing price subsidies to one of subsidies to grain production and sales will reduce the impact of grain prices and other factors on APP and inflation. The weak cyclic codependence among APP, CPI and M2, along with the strong cyclic codependence between M2 and CPI, has given rise to a “shuttle-shaped” intersection of cyclic elements. This indicates that China’s monetary policy goal has been alternating between curbing inflation and stimulating growth. When the APP cycle is basically stable, China can implement a moderately easing monetary policy to stimulate economic growth, but this must be based on a 1.5 or so margin of increase in the codependent cycle components of M2. When APP rises sharply or is in the rising phase of cycle elements, China should emphasize APP control, and should delay the moderately easing monetary policy till the APP cycle becomes stable or is in the downlink phase.     

Achievements,experiences and challenges: The 30-year development of social policy in China

ABSTRACT

This paper provides a brief summary of China’s social policy in the last three decades by dividing it into two significant stages. It analyses the different policy orientations and concrete measurements in the two stages. According to the author, the changes and development of China’s social policy in the last three decades were, to a large extent, responses to the economic transition and the current socio-economic conditions. In the first stage, China’s social policy had to keep a low social welfare level to support the labour-intensive and foreign-trade oriented economic model in the 1990s. In the second stage, it had turned more to solve serious social problems and responded to the new economic and social challenges. After the fast development of almost two decades, China’s social policy is still facing big challenges. Several important issues for further social policy development are discussed in this paper.     

Flexible public policy: The case of the United States wheat sector

This paper tests the proposition that flexible policy rules that tie program instrument settings to changes in market conditions can improve economic welfare compared to the prevailing practice in the United States of setting agricultural policy instruments at fixed levels once every 4 years. Flexible policy rules are obtained for the U.S. wheat sector using stochastic control methods. A constraint structure representing producer and consumer behavior and a policy criterion function representing society's weighting of various groups are estimated. It is shown that the flexible policy rules developed in this paper outperform historic policy instrument settings across a wide spectrum of economic conditions.     

Food subsidy,income transfer and the poor: A comparative analysis of the public distribution system in India's states

The Targeted Public Distribution System (TPDS) – the largest food subsidy program in India – has been a dismal failure in targeting the poor. The present paper examines its performance in three Indian states – Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra and Rajasthan, based on primary data collected for this study. As real income transfers through food price subsidies are a tiny fraction of expenditure per person under this scheme, a contribution of the present study is to model determinants of real income transfers through subsidised wheat, rice and sugar. The analysis throws new light on how income transfers vary with economic status of a household, inequality in the distribution of land in a village, amount of food price subsidy, transaction costs of buying from ‘fair price shops’ (FPS), and supply shortages. The policy implications of these results are profound. Desperate measures such as a universal food subsidy enshrined in a proposed National Food Security Act are rejected on the grounds that the enormous leakages and wastage under the present TPDS would only get worse. Assertions that a universal food subsidy is the only option consistent with the right to food are rejected as mistaken. Instead, it is worthwhile to overhaul the PDS within the existing outlay.     

银根紧缩、银根放松与放而不松——大萧条前后中美货币政策效果比较研究

对比20世纪20—30年代中国和美国的货币政策功能，在经济发达的美国，货币政策只能刹车不能启动，符合货币理论的逻辑，而在经济落后的近代中国，货币供给既能刹车又能启动，现代货币理论对此无法解释。货币政策无法启动经济的前提是需求约束型经济（美国），而在供给约束型经济（中国）中，货币政策是可以启动经济的。在两种经济状态下，紧缩银根都可以使经济增长减速或刹车。     

Advocacy Coalitions and Health Politics in Korea

This article analyses the political dynamics underlying health care reform in Korea after the Asian economic crisis. The reform was a significant volte‐face in respect of the social policy paradigm, which now aims to enhance equity in National Health Insurance. The article pays special attention to the evolution of the advocacy coalition for equity in health policy and how it developed the two attributes required for successful policy change: institutional strength and the elaboration of policy rationale for reform. This process was not a simple linear development but a combination of setbacks and advances. The article also takes into consideration the structural conditions that set the policy environment over the course of the advocacy coalition's evolution since the 1960s. In short, the policy reform of 2000 was not a simple policy change in response to the economic crisis, but rather the outcome of the long‐term evolution of the advocacy coalition for equity in health policy.     

以非再生能源资源定价改革促进经济增长方式转变

改革开放三十年来,中国取得了举世瞩目的成就。与此同时,一些深层次的矛盾逐步暴露。自20世纪50年代以来,推行重工业优先发展的经济发展策略,特别是近年来宏观经济与城市化快速发展,致使中国经济增长采取高耗能方式。经济增长方式的粗放,导致能源消费增长过快和环境污染加剧。能源与环境成为中国经济增长的双重约束。转变经济增长方式势在必行,而关键点在于非再生能源资源定价改革。非再生能源资源的开发使用制度的变革,目的在于充分体现资源成本与环境成本。资源成本是需要通过完善资源的基础市场即矿业权市场来实现的,而环境(生态)成本是需要通过资源税费制度改革实现的。最终,通过价格信号引导产业结构以及经济增长方式的彻底转变,实现经济的可持续发展。     

The Making and Melting of the "Iron Rice Bowl" in China 1949 to 1995

The socialist regimes are commonly perceived as insensitive to the economic problems of overmanning and inefficiency arising from the iron rice bowl. This paper argues that the People's Republic of China, as a socialist regime, was not insensitive to these problems. However, the economic rationality of the planned economy was prioritized on macro-planning balances rather than efficiency at the unit level. The national economy was considered as a chessboard and the regime was the player to move labour from one square to another to maximize overall efficiency through strategic positioning. The iron rice bowl was a part of the national industrial manpower policy and it was considered more important than the growth and efficiency of individual enterprises. Even during the economic reform era, the regime guarded against the disruption of overall economic balancing, and measures were taken to protect workers from dismissal.     

商品社会使用价值与市场价格规律论

现代经济理论的两大体系 ,都对价格的有关理论做出了说明。有一种说法 ,把马克思主义经济学的劳动价值论与当代西方主流经济学派的供求论综合起来 ,就应当可以得到较为完美的价格理论。但这是不可能的。解决问题的出路 ,只能是按马克思主义经济学的内在逻辑 ,深入研究商品的使用价值 ,通过商品价值和使用价值对商品价格做出完整的说明 ,同时破解在供求与价值决定上的相互循环论证 ,发展以劳动价值为基础的价格理论。商品的使用价值 ,具有自然使用价值和社会使用价值两重属性。商品的社会使用价值深刻地反映着商品交换的经济关系 ,由自然使用价值等一系列因素决定。商品社会使用价值 ,在量上最终表现为某一商品的社会需求量与生产供给量的比率 ,在不同的条件下具有不同的值。商品的市场价格 ,由商品价值或其转化形式与商品社会使用价值共同决定。社会使用价值比价值或其转化形式更复杂、更多样、更易变 ,是市场价格变化的主导因素。社会使用价值为 1的市场价格 ,即是市场均衡价格。所谓市场价格围绕商品价值或其转化形式上下波动 ,实质上应是围绕市场均衡价格上下波动。调节市场供求关系的根本因素 ,表面上看是商品价格 ,而实质上是市场供求的相互作用。     

The impact of government spending on Ireland’s housing and residential market – Targeted vs economy-wide stimulus

The Irish residential property market is currently characterized by a considerable structural deficiency in housing supply compared to the underlying level of demand. The lack of housing has led to several economic and social problems in Ireland. The imbalance between supply and demand has led to both house prices and rents increasing faster than household incomes. Recent policy initiatives by the Irish Government have outlined plans for significant spending aimed at increasing the numbers of housing completions to tackle these issues. This paper examines the impact of government spending on housing supply using a structural econometric model of the Irish economy with a specific construction block. Within our econometric analysis, we compare the results of an economy wide versus a sector specific government stimulus on the property market. Our simulations suggest that, in order to achieve social and economic goals like increasing the number of dwellings and making housing more affordable by containing house price inflation, a targeted policy such as that described in the Irish Government's Housing for All plan may be preferable to an economy-wide stimulus.     

价格规制:缘由、目标和内容

价格规制是经济规制的一种重要形式.在现代,自由市场经济已成为历史的陈迹.作为市场经济运行的利益焦点,价格必须接受"规制".政府是价格规制的主体;价格规制的对象是市场活动参与者的价格行为;价格规制的依据是市场活动因垄断、外部性、信息偏在等对帕累托标准的偏离.价格规制不是对市场和市场机制的替代,而是在市场机制作用不充分的时候或地方,由政府为市场机制作用的发挥创造条件.     

A critical approach to wage devaluation: The case of Spanish economic recovery

In line with the orientation of EU economic policy, the Spanish government has favoured a strategy of internal devaluation as a way of adjusting price levels within the currency union. The results of empirical studies indicate that the internal devaluation applied in Spain does not seem to have attained the desired goals in terms of reducing the relative prices of exports and consolidating a model of growth based on external demand. Indeed, the estimates drawn up show that tailwinds – the depreciation of the euro and the fall in risk premium as results of the measures taken by the ECB, greater economic activity by trading partners and the fall in the price of oil – exercised a decisive influence in the trends followed by the prices of exports and the balance of trade during the period of crisis management in Spain.     

The impact of the Soviet Union upon the U.S. feed/livestock sector— An assessment

In this article, the impact of volatile Soviet Union corn imports on the U.S. feed/livestock sector is analyzed using an econometric model. The model's attention to supply response when feed price changes enables it to determine the nature of the effect of exogenous shocks across feed and livestock sectors. The model is used in historical simulation to demonstrate the effects of actual and alternative paths of variable Soviet import demand and to explore the difficulties of deriving a stabilizatior policy for these linked sectors.