Trade and jobs in Europe: The role of mode 5 service exports

Over the past two decades, EU employment supported by extra‐EU exports of goods and services has increased markedly, with a shift towards jobs supported by services exported as part of manufactured goods. The authors seek further insight into this trend through the full decomposition of trade flows using a multi‐regional input–output model and the World Input–Output Database for 40 countries and 35 industries over the period 1995–2011. Their findings call for reflection by policy‐makers regarding the four traditional modes of service supply under the General Agreement on Trade in Services with a view to adequately capturing this new reality in global trade.     

Business Perspectives in Southeast Europe

This paper deals with economic development in Southeast Europe and the effect of the European Union and its likely enlargement eastwards on socioeconomic expectations in the entire area. The EU factor introduced in the literature indicates that an EU enlargement could have a positive and significant impact on business and economic expectations of international investors. The acquis communautaire and the process of new candidate countries will be analyzed, as well as EU attention and a regional dimension of stability. The focus should be maintained on common fundamental issues, such as regional cooperation as a means that in effect could produce positive effects for promoting reconciliation and combating organized crime and corruption.     

Opposition to enlargement as a symbolic defence of group position: multilevel analyses of attitudes toward candidates' entries in the EU‐25

Despite the sociological and geopolitical significance of EU enlargement and opinion toward it, extant literature is lacking a theory of enlargement opinion and an examination of opinion in the wake of the 2004 enlargement. This paper fills these gaps by developing a symbolic defence of group position model to explain opposition to the entries of candidate states (as of 2005: Bulgaria, Romania, Croatia, and Turkey) and to examine how these explanations differ for post‐Communist EU members. Results of hierarchical multinomial logistic models of Eurobarometer ( European Commission 2005 ) data from the EU‐25 support the notion that the symbolic nature of enlargement shapes the effects of interests, threat, and other factors on opinion depending on candidates' position in a culturally and historically‐rooted hierarchy of ‘European‐ness’. Attitudes toward Turkey's entry are less shaped by material interests than attitudes toward other candidates' entries, which is explained by Turkey's position at the bottom – and post‐Communist countries' position in the middle – of this hierarchy in the post‐Cold War era. Attitudes toward Turkey's entry are rather a function of the perceived threat that it poses to the group position and identity of Europeans, which is defended by the politically knowledgeable. While the lower levels of threat in post‐socialist EU member countries help to account for their lower levels of opposition to candidates' entries, people in these countries to a greater extent use European identity as a way of symbolically distancing themselves from Turkey. Implications are discussed.     

Expanding and Diversifying South Mediterranean Exports through Trade Facilitation

This article explores whether trade facilitation – i.e. improved and simplified trade procedures – could be an important part of the reform agenda of the Barcelona Process. Adopting a Southern perspective by focusing on exports to the European Union (EU) from non‐EU Mediterranean countries, it tests whether the efficiency of trade procedures affects (i) bilateral volumes of exports and (ii) the number of products exported. The findings suggest that trade facilitation could lead to substantially increased export volumes and export diversification.     

European integration and external sustainability of the European Union: an application of the thesis of Feldstein and Horioka

The Feldstein–Horioka thesis was considered one of the greatest puzzles in economics. Formulated to measure international capital mobility, it has known a process of immunization to be conformed to empirical evidence and respect econometric knowledge. We apply to EU countries a formulation of this thesis which is adequate to test external sustainability and measure international capital mobility. Applying appropriate econometric methods we can accept the hypothesis of external unsustainability for the EU before the enlargement. The enlargement allows the external sustainability of the new EU. The lesser mobility of capital in the countries of the enlargement must be considered as a positive shock on EU industry of financial services.     

Migration Trends and Migration Policy in Europe

This paper summarizes the latest information on both stocks and flows of migrants in Europe, focusing specifically on arrivals from developing countries. It starts out by setting this into its historical context by showing how flows of labour migrants were followed by flows of family members, and later by asylum seekers and refugees. Then it looks more closely at recent migration data, though it finds these to be frequently incomplete and inconsistent. The most comparable cross–national data come from the OECD and Eurostat, which indicate that Germany had the largest flows of migrants in the 1990s followed by the United Kingdom. In addition to these arrivals there are probably between 2 and 3 million undocumented immigrants in Europe – accounting for 10 to 15 per cent of the total population of foreigners. The paper also traces the countries from where immigrants are leaving. Sources vary considerably from one immigration country to another, reflecting a number of factors, of which the most important are former colonial links, previous areas of labour recruitment, and ease of entry from neighbouring countries. In recent years, however, immigrants have been coming from a wider range of countries and particularly from lower–income countries. The paper also examines changes in immigration policy. National policies were fairly liberal during the 1950s and 1960s, before becoming restrictive from the 1970s on. Recently, however, a number of governments have been revising their policies to take better account of employment and demographic needs. The paper also traces the emergence of a cross–national European response to immigration, as European Union (EU) countries have become more concerned about their common external frontier. Thus far European countries have done little to try to control migration through cooperation with sending countries. They could, for example, direct Official Development Assistance to those countries most likely to send immigrants, though few appear to have done so in a deliberate fashion. The paper concludes that in the future immigration to the EU is likely to increase, both as a result of the demand for labour and because of low birth rates in the EU. In the short and medium term many of these requirements are likely to be met by flows from Eastern Europe, particularly following the eastward expansion of the EU. But, the longer–term picture will probably involve greater immigration from developing countries.     

The need to import skilled personnel: factors favouring and hindering its international mobility

Skilled migration has become a major element of contemporary flows. It has developed in scale and variety since the 1930s and now takes many forms, including “brain drain”, professional transients, skilled permanent migrants and business transfers. Nevertheless, the data are poor, inconsistent and usually not differentiated by sex. The importance of policies, both national and regional, to control the movement of skilled migrants has escalated. Receiving countries have come increasingly to see the benefits from admitting skilled workers and have adjusted their permanent and/or temporary migration laws/policies to facilitate entry, usually on the proviso that it does not disadvantage their own workers by taking away their jobs. Another set of policy frameworks within which skilled migration is occurring is regional blocs. The experience of the European Union (EU) in promoting the flow of skilled labour, movement in this direction in the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), Mercosul, the Closer Economic Relations (CER) Agreement between Australia and New Zealand and the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Forum are analysed. The article poses two sets of issues facing sending and receiving countries. For sending countries they are: whether to free up or tighten migration; whether to support temporary skilled flows; whether to introduce protective or preventive measures to stem skilled emigration; how to encourage the return of skilled nationals; and whether/how to pursue compensation from post-industrialized countries. For receiving countries they are: whether to encourage temporary or permanent skilled immigration; the level of entry to permit/promote; how to select/process skilled immigrants; whether/how to protect the jobs of locals; and how they ensure the successful labour market integration of skilled immigrants. The article argues that the neo-classical view that skilled migration leads to overall improvement in global development does not apply. “Brain waste” or “wasted skills” occur frequently, to the detriment of both individuals and nations. Improved data and constructive dialogue on skilled migration are needed. Within both regional and international contexts, countries have obligations and responsibilities towards each other which need to be taken seriously.     

Comparing the Incomparable? Migrant Integration Policies and Perplexities of Comparison

This article examines the level of development of integration policies in the European Economic Area and the attempts to compare and standardize them. We discuss national integration models and policies based on the results of the Migrant Integration Policy Index (MIPEX) and OECD/EU indicators of integration. Indicating the possible pitfalls of measuring and comparing integration policies, the results of researches into labour mobility and access to citizenship are examined. This comparative study shows that the indicators of immigrant integration are often at odds with the development level of integration policies, which results in their inadequate implementation in practice. Furthermore, EU countries face different challenges in the enactment of integration policies which spring from diverse (im)migration experiences, the scope of past migrations, and recent migratory flows. This is why integration policies should be re‐indexed, taking into consideration the particularities of (im)migration flows, the size of the immigrant population and other relevant factors.     

Deliberate or Emancipate? Civil Society Participation in Trade Policy: The Case of the CARIFORUM–EU EPA

At both the multilateral and regional levels, there have been efforts to address the democratic deficit in trade negotiations. One such example is the Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) between the European Union and African, Caribbean and Pacific group of countries where civil society participation was enshrined in the Cotonou Agreement. Yet, the CARIFORUM–EU EPA attracted much criticism from civil society. The paper argues that civil society failed to affect the outcome of the EPA because they participated in the process within a deliberative democratic framework which did not allow for emancipation or a challenge to global economic power and structural considerations in the negotiations; neither did it achieve citizen empowerment and ownership. We advocate the practice of participatory democracy in trade policy decision making—an ideal space for citizen participation—the former holding greater promise for influencing the trade policy agenda.     

The Institutional Challenge of the ACP/EU Economic Partnership Agreements

The Economic Partnership Agreements between the African, Caribbean and Pacific countries and the European Union should serve as an opportunity to accelerate ACP global and regional trade integration and as an important tool for development and the eradication of poverty. There are, however, a number of preconditions. This article argues that institutional quality plays a key role in successful trade liberalisation. In fact, only countries with high‐quality institutions, partly in the form of good government regulation, are likely to benefit from trade. Unfortunately, the vast majority of African countries have excessive regulation that hinders them from taking advantage of trade. The necessary reforms to resolve this problem pose significant challenges, implying major risks for these countries in the EPA process.     

EU Enlargement: Economic-Cultural Perspective and Cross-Country Comparison

Globalization is constantly changing the appearance of the modern world. The most intense processes of integration are taking place in Europe in the framework of the European Union (EU) enlargement. Though the formal process is more or less concluded, the subtle and informal ones still have a long way to go. Social structures (institutions, organizations, norms, etc.) and actions depend on the cultural environment in the narrowest sense of the word: human perceptions and values. This poses the basic question whether the economic-cultural orientations of the new EU member states are compatible with imported social structures. We have done an empirical research using Hofstede's cultural dimensions and European Values Study database for 26 European countries (23 EU member states, 2 candidate countries, and Northern Ireland as a separate entity). We have also compared the differences and similarities by applying the Ward method (cluster analysis) on our 10 constructed variables.     

Retaliatory use of public standards in trade

This research investigates the extent to which countries use public standards as a means of political retaliation in the international policy arena. We match World Trade Organization notifications of Sanitary and Phytosanitary (SPS) standards with SPS committee data on Specific Trade Concerns and annual, bilateral trade flows to test whether countries targeted with a public standard respond with a trade barrier of their own. We find that this type of retaliatory behavior exists for economically strategic goods. Our results suggest that about 1000 bilateral trade flows globally—or just over $11.8 billion in trade—were subject to retaliatory standards in 2015.     

The New European Trade Preferences: Does ‘Everything But Arms’ (EBA) Help the Poor?

The EU’s offer of tariff‐ and quota‐free access for all exports from the Least Developed Countries (for Everything but Arms) has been welcomed as part of the WTO‐led initiative to assist these countries. But it is not without problems. As the Least Developed compete more with other developing countries than with the EU, trade is likely to be diverted from other, sometimes poorer, countries. (‘Least Developed’ is an official classification, not a neutral measure of poverty.) EBA contradicts and impedes the EU’s policies of reciprocity and promotion of regions: it not only creates an alternative trade regime, but seems unilaterally to break existing agreements. The article concludes that the policy was adopted for essentially political, not developmental, motives.     

EU rural development policy in the new member states: Promoting multifunctionality?

European Union (EU) enlargement has seen 10 new member states (NMS) adopt the full range of EU policies. Within this, the rural development arm of the Common Agricultural Policy offers particular points of interest. Member states chose from an extensive list of policy measures developed within the EU15 and intended, in particular, to operationalise the concept of rural multifunctionality within the ongoing CAP reform process. This paper identifies the rural development policy choices made by the eight central and eastern European NMS and develops a taxonomy to ascertain the extent to which the NMS are directing public funds to promote multifunctionality. A number of factors are then identified as helping to influence the policy choices made across countries.     

Scientific Mobility, Career Progression, and Excellence in the European Research Area1

This paper explores the various aspects of mobility requirements and the relationship between competitiveness, excellence, and mobility in scientific research in the European Union (EU). The “expectation of mobility” in science plays an important role in shaping the European Research Area. Research argues that better economic opportunities and advanced migration policy in destination countries promote highly skilled migration. Empirical evidence shows that academics and researchers consider important determinants in the migration decision and destination to be the research environment and conditions, i.e. research support, infrastructures, demand for research and development (R&D) staff, and academics (Millard, 2005). While it can be argued that the European Research Area is designed to encourage the interchange of scientists, skills balance is essential to competitiveness in the European region. Despite the actions and measures taken in the context of the EC Mobility Strategy, unbalanced flows are still a weakness of the European Research Area. There is a need in Europe to coordinate science and migration policies at European and Member State level to enhance the attractiveness of European receiving countries and facilitate return of scientists to their sending nations. This paper, which focuses mainly on Austria, Greece, Italy, Portugal, and the United Kingdom, shows the uneven nature of scientific personnel flows within the European Research Area. The article argues that in Europe mobile scientists are often driven by necessity more than choice, and the longer they are away the more complicated it is to return. If the academic system proved impenetrable to return other opportunities in the private sectors might be explored by the researcher.     

The determinants of heroin flows in Europe: A latent space approach

This study utilises recent advances in statistical models for social networks to identify the factors shaping heroin trafficking in relation to European countries. First, it estimates the size of the heroin flows among a network of 61 countries, before subsequently using a latent space approach to model the presence of trafficking and the amount of heroin traded between any two given countries. Many networks, such as trade networks, are intrinsically weighted, and ignoring edge weights results in a loss of relevant information. Traditionally, the gravity model has been used to predict legal trade flows, assuming conditional independence among observations. More recently, latent space position models for social networks have been used to analyze legal trade among countries, and, mutatis mutandis, can be applied to the context of illegal trade to count both edge weights and conditional dependence among observations. These models allow for a better understanding of the generative processes and potential evolution of heroin trafficking routes. This study shows that geographical and social proximity provide fertile ground for the formation of heroin flows. Opportunities are also a driver of drug flows towards countries where regulation of corruption is weak.     

Trade Balance and Income Shocks: Experience of Transition Economies

This paper investigates the major sources of changes in the trade balance of four Central European and three Baltic transition economies with an emphasis on the difference between permanent and transitory disturbances to income. In all seven countries the findings support the hypothesis that transitory disturbances to income are the main determinants of changes in the trade balance. These results seem to be fairly consistent with inter-temporal models of trade balance, which view transitory shocks to income as the main source of variations in the trade balance. These results do not seem to support the view that productivity shocks alone generate most of the variation in the trade balance.      

Moving People and Knowledge: Scientific Mobility in the European Union1

This paper considers the relationship between highly skilled scientific migration (HSM) and the transfer of knowledge within the European Union (EU). To understand these processes we need to conceptualize the phenomenon and then develop appropriate operational tools. HSM engages two key concepts: (1) the concept of skill or knowledge; and (2) the concept of migration. nalysing the impact of HSM requires an understanding of who is moving (and the quality of their skills) and the nature of their migration. This might include consideration of the direction of flows; their frequency, duration, and permanency; and the propensity to return. In order to evaluate the impact of these processes on the regions concerned and develop appropriate policy responses, we need to examine the relationship between scientific mobility and the transfer of knowledge. Much existing literature focuses on the size and direction of migratory flows assuming a clear correlation between human mobility and the transfer of knowledge to identify the “winning” and “losing” regions. More recent work emphasizing “circulation”. questions these assumptions and suggests that flows may not be unidirectional, homogenous, or permanent and may be mitigated by certain “compensatory” mechanisms This article considers some of the issues raised in the literature and the ways in which the variables identified may interact to shape these relationships with important implications for sending and receiving countries and individual scientists. This article does not endeavour to present new conclusions. Drawing on a pilot project concerned with the mobility of Italian scientists, it begins to map out a research agenda capable of informing a new study of scientific migration in the context of EU enlargement that may potentially inform other research in this field.     

A deviational approach to blockmodeling of valued networks

This article proposes a novel approach to blockmodeling of valued (one-mode) networks where the identification of (binary) block patterns in the valued relations differ from existing approaches. Rather than looking at the absolute values of relations, or examining valued ties on a per-actor basis (cf. Nordlund, 2007), the approach identifies prominent (binary) ties on the basis of deviations from expected values. By comparing the distribution of each actor's valued relations to its alters with the macro-level distributions of total in- and outdegrees, prominent (1) and non-prominent (0) ties are determined both on a per-actor-to-actor and a per-actor-from-actor basis. This allows for a direct interpretation of the underlying functional anatomy of a non-dichotomized valued network using the standard set of ideal blocks as found in generalized blockmodeling of binary networks.In addition to its applicability for direct blockmodeling, the article also suggests a novel indirect measure of deviational structural equivalence on the basis of such deviations from expected values.Exemplified with the note-sharing data in Žiberna (2007a), citations among social work journals (Baker, 1992), and total commodity trade among EU/EFTA countries as of 2010, both the direct and indirect approach produce results that are more sensitive to variations at the dyadic level than existing approaches. This is particularly evident in the case of the EU/EFTA trade network, where the indirect approach yields partitions and blockmodels in support of theories of regional trade, despite the significantly skewed valued degree distribution of the dataset.