City Effect and Urban Overload as Program Indicators of the Regional Policy

The paper explores the constraints of an optimal regional policy, and itidentifies them through program indicators of city effect and overload.Based on a `programming approach to the regional analysis, and on the``optimal centrality' concept as meeting point of the city-effect andcity-overload curves, the paper outlines a core list of indicators ofcity-effect and overload, quantifying their dimensions (as findings ofresearch conducted for the European Commission, from 20 cities in 4countries of the EU: France, Germany, Italy and United Kingdom).Further, a ``strategy' for an appropriate urban-regionalreorganization, and for an appropriate `ambit of measuring urban lifequality, is outlined. And finally the misleading risks of comparisons inthe wrong spatial `ambit of data collecting about quality of life, arediscussed.     

Subsidy policies with capital accumulation: Maintaining employment levels

We study a dual economy model of growth and unemployment in the presence of Harris-Todaro type labor migration. The model is a discrete time model of economic growth with given population but endogenous migration of labor. The economy tries to reach development in the quickest possible time while not allowing unemployment to rise above a socially acceptable level. We characterize situations under which maximizing the accumulation of capital in each period is optimal. We also study how particular taxes and subsidies affect unemployment and capital accumulation. Finally, we show that a higher initial capital stock does not necessarily mean a quicker attainment of self-sustained full employment.     

Have the relative employment prospects for the low-skilled deteriorated after all?

Has the relative unemployment propensity for the low-skilled increased during the 1990s? We address this question empirically, based on two notions of low skills; i) low education, and ii) low ability, conditioned on education and work experience. Ability is identified by previous earnings. Evaluated by the education-based measure, we find that unemployment propensity has not developed unfavourably for the low-skilled. Evaluated by the ability-based measure, it has. We uncover a steady deterioration of employment prospects for persons with low ability relative to others with similar formal qualifications. The adverse employment effects of being low-skilled are stronger the higher is formal education.All correspondence to Knut Røed. The paper is part of the project Sorting, exposed groups and labour market programs financed by the Research Council of Norway. We wish to thank Rolf Aaberge, Paul Gertler, Harald Goldstein, Karl Ove Moene, Jon Strand, Steinar Strøm, Asbjrn Rødseth and an anonymous referee for helpful comments. Responsible editor: John F. Ermisch.     

Demographic Efficiency: Concept and Estimation

The concept of demographic efficiency is proposed and data envelopment analysis (DEA) is introduced as a method for determining which countries are demographically efficient. While the purpose of the paper is primarily to introduce the concept and the method, several simple examples are used for purposes of illustration. The first two explore how efficiently countries have converted their level of development (the input) into male and female life expectancy at birth (the outputs). The second two reverse the postulated relationship, treating life expectancies as inputs reflecting general health status of a population, and level of development as the output. Countries are said to be efficient if they have achieved the maximum output observable for a given level of input, or if they have minimized the inputs needed to achieve a prescribed level of output. Together, the efficient cases form an efficiency frontier. DEA, a form of linear programming, also permits the degree of inefficiency of countries lying behind this frontier to be measured by calculating the extent of the output slacks that are present. Output slacks are the shortfalls in the level of performance that could have been achieved given the inputs available, and may themselves be treated as independent variables in explorations of the sources of demographic inefficiency. One example of such an exploration is offered—an attempt to account for shortfalls in female life expectancy, given levels of development.     

Assessing the Impact of Proposed Bank Mergers on Rural Communities: A Case Study of Bbritish Columbia

The restructuring of financial markets and financial institutions through bank mergers has been accompanied in many countries by concerns about the resulting `geography of finance. In Canada, two proposed mergers involving four of the largest banks have raised concerns about the possibleimpacts of the proposed mergers on the access to financial institutions in rural Canada. This paper assesses the potential impact of the proposed mergers on the geography of finance in rural communities in British Columbia. The methodological choices which must be made to frame such an anlysis are discussed and include choices related to the definitions of `accessibility, the `industry, a `competitive industry, a `bank branch and a `community. A new Index is devised to measure the vulnerability of rural communities to post-merger bank branch closures. It is concluded that the bank mergers will, if approved, have significant negative impacts for the accessibility of the banking system in rural British Columbia. It is also suggested that Canada needs to examine establishing a wider regulatory framework which addresses the issue of accessibility on a longer term basis.     

Constructing a Quality of Life Scale for Older Chinese People in Hong Kong (HKQoLOCP)

This paper reports a multi-stagestudy carried out between 1999 and 2001 whichaimed to develop an instrument to address theneed for a culturally relevant measure ofquality of life for Chinese older persons inHong Kong and similar communities. The firststage of the research involved a focus groupstudy conducted in August 1999 which it washoped would reflect how quality of life maybe interpreted by older persons themselves. Thenext stage, a content analysis of the focusgroups, enabled the construction of aquestionnaire containing over 100 items onvarious aspects of quality of life (QoL). Thequestionnaire was reviewed by a panel ofexperts and the items were refined and reducedto 86 to which were added a further 25 itemsfor socio-demographic background. This formedthe initial instrument. The final stage was avalidation study based on a representativecommunity survey, with a sample of 3,000respondents drawn for the research team by theCensus and Statistics Department of the HongKong Special Administrative Region (HKSAR)Government. The survey yielded 1,616 successfulinterviews with older persons aged 60 or above.The careful stratification of the sampleenabled us to say that subjects in all thestages of the survey had broadly similarcharacteristics to the general Hong Kongelderly population in sex and age distribution.After a rigorous process of validation, theresearch team recommended the adoption of bothan index and six domains for measuring HongKong older persons QoL. The new scale containsa total of 21 items which can be grouped intovarious domains: subjective well-being, with 4items; health with 5 items; interpersonalrelationships with 6 items; achievement-recognition with 4 items, finance and livingconditions (1 item each). The overall QoL scalehas a Cronbachs alpha of 0.72 with its domainsranging from 0.65 to 0.77 which indicates ahigh degree of statistical reliabilities. Thename recommended for the scale was Hong KongQuality of Life for Older Persons Scale-abbreviated as HKQoLOCP.     

China's ‘later’ marriage policy and its demographic consequences

Using data from China's One-Per-Thousand Fertility Survey conducted in 1982, a cohort analysis is carried out to estimate the demographic consequences of the later marriage policy implemented in the People's Republic of China. The findings show that the later marriage policy had a strong positive effect on mean age at first marriage and first birth but a negative impact on the length of the first-birth interval, suggesting that the depressing effects on fertility of the administratively enforced postponement of marriage are more or less offset by adjustments over the first-birth interval by Chinese couples.     

Is There a Trade-Off Between Economic Efficiency and a Generous Welfare State? A Comparison of Best Cases of `The Three Worlds of Welfare Capitalism’

A crucial debate in policy-making as well as academiccircles is whether there is a trade-off betweeneconomic efficiency and the size/generosity of thewelfare state. One way to contribute to this debate isto compare the performance of best cases ofdifferent types of state. Arguably, in the decade198594, the US, West Germany and the Netherlands were best cases best economic performers in whatEsping-Andersen (1990) calls the three worlds ofwelfare capitalism. The US is a liberalwelfare-capitalist state, West Germany a corporatiststate, and the Netherlands is social democratic in itstax-transfer system, although not its labor marketpolicies. These three countries had rates of economicgrowth per capita as high or higher than other richcountries of their `type, and the lowest rates ofunemployment.At a normative or ideological level the three types ofstate have the same goals but prioritise themdifferently. The liberal state prioritises economicgrowth and efficiency, avoids work disincentives, andtargets welfare benefits only to those in greatestneed. The corporatist state aims to give priority tosocial stability, especially household incomestability, and social integration. The socialdemocratic welfare state claims high priority forminimising poverty, inequality and unemployment.Using ten years of panel data for each country, weassess indicators of their short (one year), medium(five year) and longer term (ten year) performance inachieving economic and welfare goals. Overall, in thistime period, the Netherlands achieved the bestperformance on the welfare goals to which it gavepriority, and equalled the other two states on most ofthe goals to which they gave priority. This resultsupports the view that there is no necessary trade-offbetween economic efficiency and a generous welfarestate.The three panel studies are the American Panel Studyof Income Dynamics (PSID), the German Socio-EconomicPanel (GSOEP) and the Dutch Socio-Economic Panel(SEP). They all have samples of over 15,000 and arethe only national panels to have run for tenconsecutive years or more, so making it possible toassess the longer term performance ofwelfare-capitalist states.     

The effect of welfare eligibility on the labor force participation of women of Mexican origin in California

The relationship between AFDC, Food Stamp, and Medi-Cal Program eligibility, on the one hand, and labor force participation, on the other, was analyzed by comparing the labor force participation rates of women of Mexican origin who were fully eligible for these programs with those of less eligible women. Marital status, husband's income, and legal residence in the United States were used to define levels of program eligibility for this sample. The effects of education, English fluency, age, the number and ages of children, and the number of other adults in the household (excluding the mother and spouse) were controlled in logistic regression procedures. The results of the multivariate analyses show that AFDC, food stamps, and Medi-Cal combined inhibit the labor force participation of unmarried mothers. There is no evidence, however, that food stamps and Medi-Cal influence the labor force participation of married mothers. Earnings information on this sample of California women indicate that welfare benefits for unmarried mothers are highly competitive with net earnings, primarily because of the cost childcare. The data imply that free or subsidized childcare would increase labor force participation and reduce AFDC enrollment.     

Purchased child care,optimal family size and mother's employment Theory and econometric analysis

The paper develops a model of family size decisions in which couples choose explicitly a combination of mother's time and purchased childcare (e.g. childminders, nannies) for the care and rearing of children. The theoretical model implies that the impact of the mother's wage on her completed fertility varies with the market price of childcare, and that this effect increases (becoming less negative or more positive) with the level of her wage. Econometric analysis of British micro-data confirms the main predictions of the model.I am grateful to Robert E. Wright for research assistance, and to the Economic and Social Research Council for supporting this research as part of the research programme Income Inequality, Gender and Demographic Differentials. Financial support from the Nuffield Foundation grant no. PT/9, Family Formation and Employment Activity is also gratefully acknowledged.     

Application of Granger-Sims causality tests to monthly fertility data, 1958–1984

When applied to monthly age specific data, Granger-Sims causality tests provide a useful technique for identifying the effective lag between business cycles and fertility in the United States. Male and female monthly age specific unemployment rates are used as a proxy for the business cycle, and test results are presented for first and higher order birth rates, as well as total age-specific monthly fertility rates. The period is subdivided (January 1958 – May 1973 and June 1973 – December 1984) in order to identify possible trends. Four results hold in all cases studied, with respect to the relationship between unemployment and fertility. (1) Noncausality is rejected in the direction from unemployment to fertility, and no feedback effect is indicated; thus the relationship is one of simple causality. (2) In the critical decision period from 9–16 months prior to realized fertility rates, the sign of the effect of unemployment on fertility is negative: this holds for both male and female unemployment rates. (3) There appears to have been a shortening of the effective lag between unemployment and fertility, of perhaps 2 – 3 months, between periods 1 (1959 – 1973) and 2 (1973 – 1984). (5) The strength of the (negative) relationship between unemployment and fertility appears to have increased from period 1 to period 2.Presented at the annual meeting of the Population Association of America, Chicago, April 30, 1987. This paper has benefitted from discussions with and comments by Andrew Weiss, Clive Granger, Lee Ohanian and Pietro Balestra, and from comments by two anonymous referees. For help in obtaining previously unpublished data, the authors are grateful to Stephanie Ventura (NCHS), G. P. Goings (BLS) and Paula Schneider (Bureau of the Census). Financial support was provided by the University of Southern California     

Social Development Trends in the Middle East, 1970–1997: the Search for Modernity

The nations of the Middle East have arrived at a historic crossroad.Anchored in centuries-old political and economic systems, bitterethnic rivalries, recurrent intra-regional warfare, and risingfundamentalism, the majority of the regions countries haveremained largely apart from the transformative processes that areshaping development in other world regions. Indeed, the impressionexists that no development miracles are occurring in theMiddle East and that, to a very great extent, the region isseeking to remain on the sidelines of modern history. And,yet, if the countries of the Middle East are to flourish in thenext century they, too, must restructure themselves for dealingwith the complex realities associated with increasing globalizationand internationalization. This paper reports on the socialdevelopment successes and failures of 22 Middle Eastern countriesbetween 1970 and 1997. Also identified are the regions SocialLeaders (SLs), Socially Least Developing Countries (SLDCs),and Middle Performing Countries (MPCs). The social, political,and economic factors most closely associated with each countrysdevelopment classification are identified.     

Optimally Scaled Quality-of-Life Indicators

When studying quality of life, researchers have to rely on the subjective evaluations, which are typically categorized, collected in surveys. When statistical analysis are applied to these data, they used to apply the simplistic approach including (i) direct quantification, which assigns discrete numerical values to ordinal response scale, and (ii) complete-case analysis, which discards all observations selecting any of the off-scales choices like Dont Know No Answer from the analysis. The present paper examines the disadvantages of this approach and introduces the optimal scaling method as a remedy. The new scheme attempts to restore the continuity property of the measurements as well as provide estimates for most of the missing responses. Application of the new scheme to the Hong Kong QOL data illustrates how the scheme works, demonstrates its advantages and shows how the QOL indicators, the global QOL indicator as well as its inherited indicators, can be constructed from series of principal component analyses. Factor analysis of the 20 life domain indicators verifies Wan's opinion (1992) that the global sense of well-being can best be captured by two dimensions, namely the personal well-being and the societal well-being. Although previous QOL studies had seldom included perceptions towards various societal conditions to identify life satisfaction in general, our data analysis shows that satisfaction on these conditions do constitute an important component of the global QOL.     

On opulence driven poverty traps

Endogenous population growth, i.e., making the rate of population growth dependent on society's opulence, causes parametric changes to have a larger impact and can cause multiplicity of steady states in a dynamic intertemporal optimization framework. This provides a simple explanation for the possibility of differing growth paths between countries (using a standard production function) or another explanation of the poverty trap. We give two examples (opulence sensitivity and production sensitivity) that both give rise to three steady states in which poor (rich) countries will evolve over time to the low (high) income steady state. In both examples there are middle income countries that will choose the low (high) income steady state if they are impatient (patient), where patience is measured through the rate of time preference o. Foreign aid in the form of a large transfer of capital from abroad enables poor and impatient middle income countries to move to the high income steady state.We would like to thank Nico Heering, Martijn Herrmann, Theo Junius, Ngo van Long, Ad Pikkemaat, John Pitchford, Lakshmi Raut, Casper de Vries, an anonymous referee, participants of workshops at the University of Groningen and the University of Amsterdam and especially Harry van Dalen for valuable comments. The article was presented at the fifth annual conference of the European Society of Population Economics, Pisa 1991. The views expressed in the article are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the World Bank.     

Tribal membership requirements and the demography of ‘old’ and ‘new’ Native Americans

This paper examines the twentieth-century population recovery of Native Americans with reference to urbanization, intermarriage, and differing definitions of the Native American population from census and tribal enrollment data. The recent increase in the Native American population reflected in regular US decennial censuses since 1960 is discussed in terms of changing self-identification of individuals as Native American. Also discussed are criteria for enrollment in Native American tribes, particularly blood quantum requirements. Census enumerations are compared with tribal enrollment data, and it is illustrated that a large proportion of those identifying as Native American in the census are not enrolled in Native American tribes. Special attention is given to how Native American tribal enrollment criteria might impact future population size.     

Marriage and the value of waiting

Using a simple model where singles try to maximize their pizazz, we examine the value of the option to give up single life in favor of marriage when singles pizazz levels follow correlated geometric Brownian motions. We derive the critical level of relative pizazz levels that triggers the move to marriage and find that for relatively small (large) potential economies of scale in marriage, a single will generally be willing to get married if his/her prospective partners pizazz is strictly higher (lower) than his/her own.Comment by two anonymous referees are gratefully acknowledged. Responsible editor: Alessandro Cigno.     

The Pre- and Post-1997 Well-Being of Hong Kong Residents

Since July 1997, Hong Kong has become a Special Administrative Region (SAR) under the sovereignty of China. This paper compares the social well-being of Hong Kong residents before and after the change of sovereignty by analyzing six sets of survey data collected between 1990 and 2001. These are six biennial territory wide Social Indicator Surveys conducted to collect subjective assessments of well-being of Hong Kong residents. Analysis of the survey data which are typically categorized subjective evaluations has to deal with the commonly encountered problems of direct quantification (Schuessler and Fisher, 1985) and incomplete data (Little R.J.A. and Rubin D.B., 2002, Statistical Analysis with Missing data (Wiley-Interscience, New Jersy). The problems are handled by applying optimal scaling and hot-deck imputation as recommended by Shen S.M. and Lai Y.L. (2001, Social Indicators Research 55, pp. 121-166). Different life domain measures as well as compound measures in the form of indices are studied. The data analysis indicates that the residents of Hong Kong were most satisfied in 1997 and least satisfied in 1995. It reveals that the sovereignty change had major impact on many life domains of the people of Hong Kong and the effect was compounded by the economic situation of the territory.     

Three Centuries of Global Population Growth: A Spatial Referenced Population (Density) Database for 1700–2000

The Earths surface has changed considerably over the past centuries. Since the start of the Industrial Revolution in the early 1700s, humans from the Old World started to colonize the New World. The colonization processes lead to major changes in global land use and land cover. Large parts of the original land cover have been altered (e.g., deforestation), leading to extra emissions of GHGs to the atmosphere and enhancing global climate change. The spatial and temporal aspects are still not very well known. More and more global integrated environmental assessments concerning global sustainability require long time series of global change indicators, of which population is an important one. This study presents an update of the geo-referenced historical population maps for the period 1700–2000, part of the History Database of the Global Environment (HYDE), which can be used in integrated models of global change and/or global sustainability.     

Multiple-Scale Integrated Assessments of Societal Metabolism: Integrating Biophysical and Economic Representations Across Scales

The crucial challenge for integrated analyses of socioeconomic systems is keeping coherence in their multidimensional representation. Our approach describes the hierarchical structure of socioeconomic systems using the profile of allocation of human activity over a set of compartments defined at different hierarchical levels (e.g., whole countries, economic sectors, individual households). Compartments are characterized in terms of intensive variables (intensity of both exosomatic energy flows and added value flows per unit of human activity) and the extensive variable Total Human Activity population. In this way, relations of congruence across hierarchical levels can be used to link non-equivalent analyses. That is, changes in demographic variables, economic variables, technical coefficients, indices of environmental loading, institutional settings, and social aspirations are no longer independent of each-other even if described within different scientific disciplines.