The impact of childhood mortality on Fertility in six rural Thanas of Bangladesh

In this article, we examine the relationship between child mortality and subsequent fertility using prospective longitudinal data on births and childhood deaths occurring to nearly 8000 Bangladeshi mothers observed over the 1982-1993 period, a time of rapid fertility decline. Generalized hazard-regression analyses are employed to assess the effect of infant and child mortality on the hazard of conception, with controls for birth order and maternal age and educational attainment. Results show that childhood mortality reduces the time to subsequent conception if the death occurs within a given interval, representing the combined effect of biological and volitional replacement. The time to conception is also reduced if a childhood death occurs during a prior birth interval, a finding that signifies an effect of volitional replacement of the child that died. Moreover, mortality effects in prior birth intervals are consistent with hypothesized insurance (or hoarding) effects. Interaction of replacement with elapsed time suggests that the volitional impact of child mortality increases as the demographic transition progresses. This volitional effect interacts with sex of index child. Investigation of higher-order interactions suggests that this gender-replacement effect has not changed over time.     

The effect of child mortality experience on subsequent fertility: in Pakistan and Bangladesh

Summary This paper presents an empirical analysis of the effects, behavioural and biological, of child mortality experience on subsequent fertility in two South Asian Islamic nations. Data for the investigation came from retrospective pregnancy histories of 2,910 currently married women interviewed in the Pakistan National Impact Survey (1968-69) and from longitudinal vital registration data (1966-2070) of 5,236 women residing in a rural area of Bangladesh collected by the Cholera Research Laboratory. The aim of this study was to assess the importance of the child-replacement motivational response to child death experience after biological effects have been controlled adequately. A common approach employed previously has been to examine cumulative fertility according to child death experience. In Pakistan and Bangladesh, a consistently positive relationship was demonstrated between the number of children ever born and the number of child deaths. This method, however, did not exclude the inverse relationship, the influence of fertility on mortality, nor did it dissect out behavioural from biological effects. Utilizing a measure of subsequent fertility, live-birth-to-live-birth intervals, the study further illustrated another common pitfall. Since the risk of infant death, which leads to shorter birth intervals, is associated with the mother's reproductive history, women with child mortality experience are more likely to experience shorter intervals because of the biological effect of subsequent infant death. Behavioural influences may, therefore, be observed by considering only those birth intervals in which the first-born child survives to the end of the interval. With these limitations controlled, very few, if any, behavioural influences were noted in the Pakistan and Bangladesh data. Median birth intervals in Pakistan varied between 35-43 and 41-42 months, increasing with parity. Within each parity group, no consistent difference was observed between women with and without previous child loss. In Bangladesh, the median birth interval for all women with a surviving infant was 37-2 months. This was shortened to 24-31 months by an infant death. When intervals with infant deaths were excluded, little or no behavioural influence was detected among women of the same parity, but with varying levels of previous child loss. Even without behavioural effects, elimination of infant mortality in Bangladesh would reduce fertility by prolonging the average period of post-partum sterility. In the Bangladesh setting, however, the size of the effect was only about four per cent. This modest effect, more-over, was counterbalanced by an overall increase of net reproduction by seven per cent due to better survivorship of infants.     

从"五普"地市数据看生育政策对出生性别比和婴幼儿死亡率性别比的影响

以"五普"数据为基础,分析全国"地市"的出生性别比、婴儿死亡率性别比与生育政策的关系.本文的分析表明实行"第1个孩子为女孩,间隔几年允许生第2个孩子"生育政策的人口比例越高的地区,出生性别比和婴儿死亡性别比失常越严重;实行较为宽松生育政策的地区比较接近正常.实行较为宽松的生育政策有利于解决目前出生性别比严重失常和女婴死亡严重偏高的问题.     

A hazards-Model analysis of the covariates of infant and child mortality in Sri Lanka

The purpose of this paper is twofold: (a) to provide a complete self-contained exposition of estimating life tables with covariates through the use of hazards models, and (b) to illustrate this technique with a substan-tive analysis of child mortality in Sri Lanka, thereby demonstrating that World Fertility Survey data are a valuable source for the study of child mortality. We show that life tables with covariates can be easily estimated with standard computer packages designed for analysis of contingency tables. The substantive analysis confirms and supplements an earlier study of infant and child mortality in Sri Lanka by Meegama. Those factors found to be strongly associated with mortality are mother’s and father’s education, time period of birth, urban/rural/estate residence, ethnicity, sex, birth order, age of the mother at the birth, and type of toilet facility.     

Demographic Determinants of Infant and Early Child Mortality: A Comparative Analysis

In this paper we examine the relative importance of a number of demographic determinants of infant and early child mortality using information from 39 World Fertility Survey countries. We include sex of the child, age of the mother at the time of the birth, birth order, mother's educational level and a number of indicators of spacing of adjacent births among the correlates of chances of survival for children below the age of five years. Mortality of firstborn children and of those born to teenage mothers is shown to be higher than average; that of later children and those of older mothers was not much higher than average, once other factors are controlled. Effects of poor birth-spacing persist even after other factors have been controlled, and are similar where a sib was born during the two years preceding the birth of the child, regardless of the survival status of that sib; however, mortality was higher when that sib had died, due to increased familial risks of mortality. Rapid subsequent births also raise mortality for their earlier sibs. The findings are generally remarkably consistent in a wide range of countries and associated mortality conditions, although attention is drawn to a few interesting geographically clustered exceptions which deserve further investigation. The study leaves little room for doubt that poor child-spacing is clearly linked to decreased survival chances.     

New evidence about effects of reproductive variables on child mortality in sub-Saharan Africa

There is still considerable uncertainty about how reproductive factors affect child mortality. This study, based on Demographic and Health Survey data from 28 countries in sub-Saharan Africa, shows that mortality is highest for firstborn children with very young mothers. Other children with young mothers, or of high birth order, also experience high mortality. Net of maternal age and birth order, a short preceding birth interval is associated with above average mortality. These patterns change, however, if time-invariant unobserved mother-level characteristics of importance for both mortality and fertility are controlled for in a multilevel–multiprocess model. Most importantly, there are smaller advantages associated with longer birth intervals and being older at first birth. The implications of alternative reproductive ‘strategies’ are discussed, taking into account that if the mother is older at birth, the child will also be born in a later calendar year, when mortality may be lower.     

Estimating the incidence and prevalence of birth orders: A technique using census data

Although birth order is recognized as an important social variable, the incidence of various birth orders is often difficult to assess using vital statistics. A technique is described whereby the incidence of birth orders in a population may be estimated directly from census data on the number of children ever born to post-menopausal women. The technique has the advantages of allowing ready utilization of existing and widely available data, based on very large samples on which considerable supplementary information is available. In addition, it draws attention to a relatively neglected aspect of differential fertility, namely, the child’s perspective as opposed to the mother’s view. Limitations of the technique relating to quality of data, to multiple births, and to differentials in infant and maternal mortality are discussed, and possible applications in demography and sociology are suggested.     

The effect of divorce on child survival in a rural area of Bangladesh

The data for this study come from Matlab, a rural area of Bangladesh, where a continuous registration of demographic events has been maintained by the International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Bangladesh since 1966. A total of 11,951 first marriages of Muslims that took place in the area between 1975 and 1987 were followed until the end of 1989, to examine the relationship between parental marriage breakdown and survival of first live-born children. The impact of divorce on survival of children during infancy and childhood was examined, using hazard analysis. Other independent variables included age of mother at birth, and mother's education, year of birth, sex of children, and residence at the time of childbirth. It is shown that the net odds of death among children of divorced mothers in infancy and childhood were respectively 3.2 and 1.4 times higher than those of mothers whose marriages continued. The paper also discussed the possible mechanisms which link divorce and child survival.     

Fertility decisions when infant survival is endogenous

There is evidence that fertility is positively correlated with infant mortality, and that a child‘s chance of surviving to maturity increases with the level of nutrition, medical care, etc. received in the early stages of life. By modelling parental decisions as a problem of choice under uncertainty, the paper shows that fertility and infant mortality are most likely to move in opposite directions if, as implicitly assumed by existing economic theories, parents believe that there is nothing they can do to improve the survival chances of their own children. By contrast, if parents realize that those chances improve with the amount they spend for the health, nutrition, etc. of each child that they put into the world, then fertility and infant mortality may move in the same direction. Under such an assumption, the model has the strong policy implication that directly death-reducing public expenditures are most effective, but stimulate population growth, at low levels of development. By contrast, at high levels of development, such expenditures tend to crowd out parental expenditures, and are a factor in fertility decline. Received: 14 October 1996 / Accepted: 28 July 1997     

Rural–Urban Migration and Cross-National Variation in Infant Mortality in Less Developed Countries

The relationship between migration and child health in individual countries is well known, but the cross-national variation in this relationship is largely untested. Using Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) data from 52 medium and low income countries, this study examines the effect of rural–urban migration on infant mortality and whether its effect varies cross-nationally. A secondary objective is to determine whether there is a relationship between the time a child is born in the migration process and infant mortality. Hypotheses are developed on the basis of competing theories on the relationship between migration and health. There are modest, but significant cross-national effects of rural–urban migration on infant mortality, which were better revealed in the presence of family- and child-level variables. The results also show that the unadjusted effects of rural–urban migration are quite substantial, but were largely accounted for by family- and child-level factors including education, socioeconomic status (SES), marital status, birth order, maternal age at child’s birth, and inter-births intervals. The results largely point to a selection process, which is further confirmed by results showing that the hazards of infant death increase with length of urban residence. Programs that target increasing maternal education, improving household SES, and lengthening interbirth intervals would therefore greatly benefit child survival in less developed countries.     

Some aspects of the relationship between the levels of infant mortality and fertility in the ESCAP region

The death of a child within the first year of life is a crucial factor in fertility decisions in a developing country. The infant mortality rate gives a close, inverse indication of the socioeconomic conditions of a country. This paper presents studies by Brass, Rutherford, Chowdhury, Khan and Chen, Agrawal, Iskander and Jones, in summary/abstract form. It concludes that the probabilities of survival are poorer for births of older women and/or higher parities. Early child deaths may increase the total period of exposure to the risk of conception. A lower infant and child mortality norm calls for fewer births to meet the needs for survivors. Child replacement motivational response seems to be strongest with the birth immediately following a death event. Agrawal analyzed the interval between successive births of 1107 women of Patna, Pakistan, according to the age of mother and sex and fate of the previous child. He observed that if a child died shortly after its birth, often a new pregnancy began within a short interval. The interval between 2 consecutive live births when the previous child was male and alive was greater than when the previous child was female and alive. The interval between 2 births was reduced if the child died in infancy and specially if this was a male child.     

The Differential Mortality of Undesired Infants in Sub-Saharan Africa

With high rates of infant mortality in sub-Saharan Africa, investments in infant health are subject to tough prioritizations within the household, in which maternal preferences may play a part. How these preferences will affect infant mortality as African women have ever-lower fertility is still uncertain, as increased female empowerment and increased difficulty in achieving a desired gender composition within a smaller family pull in potentially different directions. I study how being born at a parity or of a gender undesired by the mother relates to infant mortality in sub-Saharan Africa and how such differential mortality varies between women at different stages of the demographic transition. Using data from 79 Demographic and Health Surveys, I find that a child being undesired according to the mother is associated with a differential mortality that is not due to constant maternal factors, family composition, or factors that are correlated with maternal preferences and vary continuously across siblings. As a share of overall infant mortality, the excess mortality of undesired children amounts to 3.3 % of male and 4 % of female infant mortality. Undesiredness can explain a larger share of infant mortality among mothers with lower fertility desires and a larger share of female than male infant mortality for children of women who desire 1–3 children. Undesired gender composition is more important for infant mortality than undesired childbearing and may also lead couples to increase family size beyond the maternal desire, in which case infants of the surplus gender are particularly vulnerable.     

The impact of class,education, and health care on infant mortality in a developing society: The case of rural Thailand

Demographic and social factors affecting infant mortality in rural northern Thailand are examined using log-linear modifiedmultiple regression models and data drawn from a representative sample of married couples in Chiang Mai and Chiang Rai provinces. Demographic factors do not account for the effects of variations in parental ability or willingness to provide adequate infant care. The final model estimated incorporated both these social dimensions of child care. Parental ability, measured by father’s social class, mother’s health information, and local community development levels, continued to have significant independent effects upon infant survival. Parental willingness, measured by parent’s beliefs about intergenerational wealth transfers, no longer had a significant effect net of other social variables, but infant survival was still affected by whether both parents wanted a birth.     

The Effect of a First Born Child on Work and Childcare Time Allocation: Pre-post Analysis of Australian Couples

This paper uses Australian data from a national representative sample of Australian couples having their first child. Using data from before and after the birth of the child on a range of variables, including economic resources, gender attitudes, workplace flexibility, and availability of non-parental childcare, we first model the factors are associated with the decision to remain in work or not after the birth of the first child. The main finding here is that childbirth has a major impact on mothers’ paid work-time, whereas for fathers it has very little impact. Factors that are related to a mother’s decision to remain in work or not include the absolute (but not relative) pay of each parent, the father’s workplace flexibility, and paid parental leave available to the mother. We then model the factors that govern, for those mothers remaining in paid work, how much paid work they undertake. We find that changing employers is related to mothers’ work hours, as are absolute post-birth salaries, as is the relative pay of each partner. As with the decision to work or not, the availability of paid parental leave to the mother is significantly related to the amount of work-time for those mothers that do continue to work. Similarly, the use of external childcare is positively associated with maternal work hours. Finally, we model the factors that determine childcare time allocation and find that for neither parent do pre-birth economic resources significantly affect childcare time, once a decision about basic work patterns has been made. Gender role attitudes affect childcare time decisions, unlike work time decisions.     

The effects of time allocation on parental stress

The time allocated to various activities by both husbands and wives influences the stress experienced in life roles. Looking at the division of labor before as well as after the birth of a baby gives an indication of the parents' ability to cope with the stress of parenthood. Here, time allocation variables as well as child characteristics that might explain parental stress are examined based on responses of 117 couples to the Abidin parental stress index 4–7 months after the birth of their first child, measuring stress in 2 domains-parental and child each modeled for both mother and father as a function of personal characteristics of the baby and time allocated to child care, household production, paid work, and leisure. Standardized regression analysis reveals the most important predictor variables to be age and sex of the infant, with older infants and girls predicting lower stress scores, especially in the child domain of the mother. The allocation of time by both parents failed to predict stress scores.     

Infant mortality and fertility in three Bavarian villages: An analysis of family histories from the 19th century

Abstract Family history data derived from the records of three parishes in Bavaria provide evidence for several important demographic questions when analysed in conjunction with information concerning the prevalent breast-feeding practices. The results suggest strongly that breast feeding can prolong birth intervals substantially. The evidence concerning the independent influence of infant deaths on subsequent birth intervals is inconclusive. It is clear, however, that even if such an influence did exist it was relatively small, compared to the effect of lactation. In addition the results do not lend support to the hypothesis that couples experiencing low child mortality practised family limitation more than couples experiencing high child mortality. In all three parishes, however, fertility appeared to influence infant mortality. Infants born after short intervals were subject to considerably higher mortality risks than infants following longer intervals.     

Sex Ratio at Birth and Infant Mortality Rate in China: An Empirical Study

In this article, we used the data from the last three population censuses of China in 1982, 1990 and 2000, to study the dynamics of the sex ratio at birth and the infant mortality rate in China. In the late 1970s, China started its economic reform and implemented many family planning programs. Since then there has been great economic development and a dramatic decrease in fertility in most of its provinces. Along with these achievements, the sex ratio at birth of the Chinese population has increased to significantly more males to females, and in some provinces of China reached unprecedented levels. The ratio of infant mortality of the males to females for manyprovinces in China become extremely unbalanced with a much higher female infant mortality rate. In our study, we investigated the statistical relationship between the sex ratio at birth and the ratio of the infant mortality of males to female. Social and economic reasons for these unnatural trends are also discussed.     

Happiness: Before and After the Kids

Understanding how having children influences parents’ subjective well-being (“happiness”) has great potential to explain fertility behavior. We study parental happiness trajectories before and after the birth of a child, using large British and German longitudinal data sets. We account for unobserved parental characteristics using fixed-effects models and study how sociodemographic factors modify the parental happiness trajectories. Consistent with existing work, we find that happiness increases in the years around the birth of a first child and then decreases to before-child levels. Moreover, happiness increases before birth, suggesting that the trajectories may capture not only the effect of the birth but also the broader process of childbearing, which may include partnership formation and quality. Sociodemographic factors strongly modify this pattern. Those who have children at older ages or who have more education have a particularly positive happiness response to a first birth; and although having the first two children increases happiness, having a third child does not. The results, which are similar in Britain and Germany, suggest that having up to two children increases happiness, and mostly for those who have postponed childbearing. This pattern is consistent with the fertility behavior that emerged during the second demographic transition and provides new insights into low and late fertility.     

Mortality in Ghana: Evidence from the cape coast project data

Abstract This paper deals with the estimation of mortality for a rural community of about 20,000 persons in the rain-forest area of south-west Ghana. Specifically, infant, child and adult mortality estimates have been obtained by the application of a wide range of direct and indirect methods of measuring mortality from the different statistics collected by a longitudinal mortality and fertility project conducted during 1974-7. It was noted that infant and childhood mortality rates obtained from death registrations were consistent with those rates yielded by pregnancy histories and child survival statistics. However, the adult mortality estimates derived from orphanhood statistics tended to be lower than those suggested by death registrations. The analysis revealed an infant mortality rate of 100 for boys and 84 for girls, equal childhood mortality rates for boys and girls (85-6), a lower expectation of life at birth for men (45.8 years) than for women (52.8), and a much more severe incidence of mortality among men aged over 40 than for women at the corresponding ages.