生产性服务业集聚效应研究

探讨了生产性服务业集聚的一般影响因素,并构建了理论模型。按空间计量模型选择规则,在经典计量模型估计和检验的基础上,构建空间滞后模型研究中国生产性服务业集聚效应。检验结果表明:经济增长、市场需求能力和需求潜力、劳动力投入、外部经济等对我国生产性服务业集聚具有较强的推动作用,而与工业集聚不同的是,固定资产投资并不能直接推进生产性服务业的集聚,体现出生产性服务业与工业的集聚本性不同。     

基于多元GARCH与极值理论的资产组合风险测度研究

在运用多元GARCH模型对资产组合损失的协方差矩阵进行建模的基础上,估计出组合的标准残差序列;然后,运用EVT对标准残差的极值尾部建模并估计出分位数,进而测度资产组合的动态极值风险;最后,再运用返回测试方法对模型准确性进行检验.研究结果表明,运用多元GARCH模型能够有效捕获多元资产损失的时变相关性特征;资产组合条件损失的标准残差极值尾部服从GPD;结合多元GARCH模型与EVT的风险模型能够测度所构造的多元资产组合的动态风险.     

FDI与工业污染排放物的空间面板模型分析

本文以FDI的环境效应为切入点,利用Moran I指数对我国FDI与工业污染排放物的空间相关性进行了分析。在此基础上通过变量的空间相关性检验结果以及对比传统面板模型实证结果来说明引入空间计量的必要性,最后通过空间滞后模型(SAR)和空间误差模型(SEM)的计量结果来揭示FDI与环境污染的空间非线性关系。结果表明:FDI和工业污染排放物具有显著的空间相关性,环境污染程度与FDI之间呈"N型"发展关系,并且我国环境污染治理已出现"越治理越严重"的趋势。     

国际金融市场波动非线性因果性和溢出效应

针对人民币、欧元、日元兑美元的官方汇率,选取了2008年金融危机前后各三年的数据参照对比分析,计算三者汇率的均值方程的残差之间的交叉相关(cross-correlation function,CCF),利用Yin-Wong Cheung,LilianK.Ng检验统计量和Hong Y.检验统计量,验证3种汇率的标准残差的方差之间的非线性因果关系,并以此信息为依据构建BEKK-MGARCH模型,分析了人民币、欧元、日元兑美元的汇率的波动溢出效应,进而验证了各个变量序列方差之间非线性因果关系的稳健性.在Hong检验中引入了截断核函数,使得对低阶时滞项赋予了较大权重,从而准确地刻画近期波动对当前波动影响更大的特征.在建立Vector GARCH模型之前,很少有文献先进行方差的非线性因果关系检验,即使进行了简单检验,通常错误地把Q2(p)当作变量序列的方差之间的非线性因果关系检验统计量.     

非正态ARCH族模型的预测绩效和VaR度量研究

本文以上海证券综合指数为样本,在残差项服从正态和非正态假设下,分别进行ARCH建模,比较正态残差项和非正态残差项ARCH族模型对波动率的预测绩效和VaR度量效果,以揭示分布假设对GARCH模型预测能力和风险度量的影响.     

空间滞后模型的空间相关性稳健检验

本文提出空间滞后(Spatial Lag,SLAG)模型空间相关性的稳健检验,并通过数理推导证明,当模型的误差项为空间误差分量模型时,SLAG模型的空间相关性标准检验统计量存在水平扭曲,稳健检验统计量可矫正水平扭曲。Monte Carlo模拟实验结果表明,空间权重矩阵的选取对检验统计量有限样本表现影响较小,样本量增大及空间相关性增强能显著减小检验统计量的水平扭曲并增大检验功效;稳健检验统计量能有效矫正标准统计量的水平扭曲,且仅损失较小的检验功效,是模型存在误设或设定不足时更为有效的检验统计量。     

研发溢出、区域创新集群的空间计量经济分析

利用空间自相关 Moran 指数与集群分析的空间计量经济学空间误差模型和空间滞后模型,对2000—2002年中国大陆31个省域的创新集群及其影响因素进行了空间计量经济分析.结果发现:我国省域创新在空间分布上存在异质性和依赖性,表现为比较明显的区域创新集群现象,形成这种创新集群的原因主要归因于企业的研究与开发贡献,大学的学术研究还没有表现出明显的知识溢出,同时大学与企业研发的结合也没有对区域创新集群产生明显贡献.     

中国上市公司盈余管理计量模型的实证检验

本文以注册会计师的审计意见为切入点,对前人提出的多个盈余管理计量模型进行统计检验,以考察各模型对中国股市的计量效果;然后根据我国上市公司盈余管理的常用手段引入了一些新变量,提出了一个新的计量模型来度量中国股市的盈余管理程度.     

ARIMA-EGARCH-M-GED模型在公路客运量预测中的应用

首先阐述了公路客运量预测的重要性,分析回顾了基于ARMA的时间序列方法和RBF神经网络方法.针对上述方法的不足之处,为进一步提高预测结果的准确性,提出了ARIMA-EGARCH-M-GED模型.EGARCH-M模型能很好地刻画数据的异方差特性,同时还能体现正、负冲击带来的非对称效应,有很大的灵活性.再利用拉格朗日乘数法对其残差序列作检验,发现存在明显的异方差性.经验证,残差的异方差性可通过EGARCH-M-GED(自回归条件异方差)模型来拟合,建立了ARIMA-EGARCH-M-GED模型.最后提出了进一步研究的方向,以不断提高公路客运量预测的准确度.     

我国教育科研投入与经济增长的计量分析

以内生经济增长理论为依据,对柯布一道格拉斯生产函数模型作局部修改,采用协整检验与基于向量自回归模型的格兰杰两步法等现代计量分析方法,对我国教育科研投资与经济增长的关系进行实证分析.     

Testing Enterprising Tendency In Occupational Groups

The administration of a test of enterprising tendency showed that business owner-managers were significantly more enterprising than other occupational groups, namely teachers, nurses, civil servants, clerical trainees and lecturers and trainers. This test, which aims to measure key characteristics of enterprising people, is described within this paper. Key enterprise characteristics may include a high need for achievement, a high need for autonomy, calculated risk-taking, an internal locus of control and a creative tendency. The result of this pilot study may suggest that the occupation of setting up and managing a business requires an enterprising tendency, unlike other occupations. However, it could reflect the fact that business owner-managers are the most studied sample of enterprising people and that the test is drawn from this literature. However, further studies are required to clarify distinctions within occupational groups and to determine if business owner-managers are more enterprising than other occupational groups. It would be especially interesting to compare the enterprising tendency of business owner-managers with managers and enterprising people from other occupational groups.     

Risk control in maritime shipping investments

In this paper we extend the state-of-the-art stochastic programming models for the Maritime Fleet Renewal Problem (MFRP) to explicitly limit the risk of insolvency due to negative cash flows when making maritime shipping investments. This is achieved by modeling the payment of ships in a number of periodical installments rather than in a lump sum paid upfront, representing more closely the actual cash flows for a shipping company. Based on this, we propose two alternative risk control measures, where the first imposes that the cash flow in each time period is always higher than a desired threshold, while the second limits the Conditional Value-at-Risk. We test the two models on realistic test instances based on data from a shipping company. The computational study demonstrates how the two models can be used to assess the trade-offs between risk of insolvency and expected profits in the MFRP.     

Reconsidering the Effect of Market Experience on the “Endowment Effect”

Simple exchange experiments have revealed that participants trade their endowment less frequently than standard demand theory would predict. List (2003a) found that the most experienced dealers acting in a well functioning market are not subject to this exchange asymmetry, suggesting that a significant amount of market experience is required to overcome it. To understand this market‐experience effect, we introduce a distinction between two types of uncertainty—choice uncertainty and trade uncertainty—both of which could lead to exchange asymmetry. We conjecture that trade uncertainty is most important for exchange asymmetry. To test this conjecture, we design an experiment where the two treatments impact differently on trade uncertainty, while controlling for choice uncertainty. Supporting our conjecture, we find that “forcing” subjects to give away their endowment in a series of exchanges eliminates exchange asymmetry in a subsequent test. We discuss why markets might not provide sufficient incentives for learning to overcome exchange asymmetry.     

具有平滑迁移的ARFIMA模型及其应用

本文基于描述长记忆性的ARFIMA模型和具有结构性转变的平滑迁移模型,提出了联合检验两种时间序列性质的STARFIMA模型,并给出了估计模型系数的估计方法和检验非线性的刀切似然比方法.应用我国通货膨胀率的时间序列数据,我们应用Logistic型STARFIMA模型进行经验分析时发现,STARFIMA模型具有比ARFIMA模型更好的模拟效果和精度,而且该模型分别捕捉到了以通货膨胀率自身和加速通货膨胀率为转移变量的结构性转变,并发现在引入结构转变之后的通货膨胀率序列的记忆性变强的特征.     

When conflict fuels negativity. A large-scale comparative investigation of the contextual drivers of negative campaigning in elections worldwide

We investigate the contextual conditions under which campaigns in elections worldwide are fought “negatively”, that is, rely on attacks against political opponents. We test the overarching intuition that societal, political, and cultural conflicts in the country are associated with greater negativity in election campaigns; conflicts, we argue, sow political discord. We test this intuition via a large-scale comparative dataset that covers 136 national elections across more than 100 countries worldwide that happened between June 2016 and March 2020, based on the expert judgments of more than 2000 scholars - to the best of our knowledge, the single largest comparative dataset about the content of elections worldwide. Our results show that countries in which elections are fought under a majoritarian or plurality rule tend to witness higher campaign negativity, and so are countries characterized by higher income inequality, deeper ethnic fragmentation, and higher individualism. Similarly, election competitiveness and ideological diversity of competing actors both tend to be associated with a greater use of negative campaigning, and so is news media preference for sensationalism.     

Bootstrap Algorithms for Testing and Determining the Cointegration Rank in VAR Models1

In this paper a bootstrap algorithm for a reduced rank vector autoregressive model with a restricted linear trend and independent, identically distributed errors is analyzed. For testing the cointegration rank, the asymptotic distribution under the hypothesis is the same as for the usual likelihood ratio test, so that the bootstrap is consistent. It is furthermore shown that a bootstrap procedure for determining the rank is asymptotically consistent in the sense that the probability of choosing the rank smaller than the true one converges to zero.     

Improved adaptive group testing algorithms with applications to multiple access channels and dead sensor diagnosis

We study group-testing algorithms for resolving broadcast conflicts on a multiple access channel (MAC) and for identifying the dead sensors in a mobile ad hoc wireless network. In group-testing algorithms, we are asked to identify all the defective items in a set of items when we can test arbitrary subsets of items. In the standard group-testing problem, the result of a test is binary—the tested subset either contains defective items or not. In the more generalized versions we study in this paper, the result of each test is non-binary. For example, it may indicate whether the number of defective items contained in the tested subset is zero, one, or at least two. We give adaptive algorithms that are provably more efficient than previous group testing algorithms. We also show how our algorithms can be applied to solve conflict resolution on a MAC and dead sensor diagnosis. Dead sensor diagnosis poses an interesting challenge compared to MAC resolution, because dead sensors are not locally detectable, nor are they themselves active participants. A preliminary version of this paper was presented at SPAA 2006.     

长期资产减值、盈余管理与价值相关性——基于新会计准则变化的实证研究

2006年2月15日财政部颁布了新的《企业会计准则》,引起了人们广泛的关注,准则中要求长期资产减值准备一经计提就不能转回,这与IASB和FASB对资产减值的规定明显不同。本文就是基于这样的背景,研究按照新会计准则提供的资产减值的信息是否增强了会计信息的价值相关性,一经计提就不能转回的规定是否能有效抑制上市公司的盈余管理行为。文章采用多元线性回归分析以及成对样本非参数检验的方法,对上述问题进行实证分析。研究结果表明,在新会计准则的规定下,上市公司计提的长期减值准备本身具有增量价值相关性,并且新准则实施以后上市公司计提的长期资产减值准备的价值相关性显著高于执行旧会计准则的年度。同时,新准则实施以后上市公司计提短期资产减值准备的盈余管理动机强于长期资产减值准备。这为2007年1月1日起实施的新会计准则中关于已计提的长期资产减值准备不可转回的变革提供了实证支持。     

Spurious Inference in Reduced‐Rank Asset‐Pricing Models

This note studies some seemingly anomalous results that arise in possibly misspecified, reduced‐rank linear asset‐pricing models estimated by the continuously updated generalized method of moments. When a spurious factor (that is, a factor that is uncorrelated with the returns on the test assets) is present, the test for correct model specification has asymptotic power that is equal to the nominal size. In other words, applied researchers will erroneously conclude that the model is correctly specified even when the degree of misspecification is arbitrarily large. The rejection probability of the test for overidentifying restrictions typically decreases further in underidentified models where the dimension of the null space is larger than 1.     

COMPARATIVE PRODUCT TESTS IN THE CONSUMER DECISION PROCESS: CORRELATES OF USE AND IMPACT ON SATISFACTION *

Information inputs are an important determinant of the quality of outcomes in the consumer decision process. This paper reports on an exploratory study that examines the perceived use of Consumer Reports product tests in a specific durable-product purchase in a nationwide sample of Consumer Reports subscribers. Perceived use of Consumer Reports is found to be related to performance-oriented shopping, but other situation-related variables are less likely to be associated with use than the shopper's general confidence in the test reports as an information source. Perceived use of the test reports in this study is associated with higher satisfaction with the products purchased.