BAHADUR SLOPES FOR COMPARISONS OF TESTS BASED ON RESAMPLING

Let X₁,…, X_n be random variables symmetric about θ from a common unknown distribution F_θ(x) =F(x–θ). To test the null hypothesis H₀:θ= 0 against the alternative H₁:θ > 0, permutation tests can be used at the cost of computational difficulties. This paper investigates alternative tests that are computationally simpler, notably some bootstrap tests which are compared with permutation tests. Of these the symmetrical bootstrap-f test competes very favourably with the permutation test in terms of Bahadur asymptotic efficiency, so it is a very attractive alternative.     

A note on the asymptotic efficiency of the sobel–wald test

Let X₁,X₂, … be iid random variables with the pdf f(x,θ)=exp(θx?b(θ)) relative to a σ-finite measure μ, and consider the problem of deciding among three simple hypotheses H_i:θ=θ_i (1?i?3) subject to P(acceptH_i|θ_i)=1?α (1?i?3). A procedure similar to Sobel–Wald procedure is discussed and its asymptotic efficiency as compared with the best nonsequential test is obtained by finding the limit lim_a→0(E_iN(a)/n(a)), where N (a) is the stopping time of the proposed procedure and n(a) is the sample size of the best non-sequential test. It is shown that the same asymptotic limit holds for the original Sobel–Wald procedure. Specializing to N(θ,1) distribution it is found that lim_a→0$\text{(E}{}_{\mathrm{i}}\text{N(α)/n(α))=}\text{1}\text{4}$ (i=1,2) and lim_a→0 (E₃N(α)n(α))=δ²₁/4δ, where δ_i=(θ_i+1?θ_i) with 0<δ₁?δ₂. Also, the asymptotic efficiency evaluated when the X's have an exponential distribution.     

Rate of consistency of one sample tests of location

Let X₁,…,X_n be a sample from a population with continuous distribution function F(x?θ) such that F(x)+F(-x)=1 and 0<F(x)<1, x?R¹. It is shown that the power- function of a monotone test of H: θ=θ₀ against K: θ>θ₀ cannot tend to 1 as θ?θ₀ → ∞ more than n times faster than the tails of F tend to 0. Some standard as well as robust tests are considered with respect to this rate of convergence.     

Asymptotic properties of a goodness-of-fit test based on maximum correlations

We study the efficiency properties of the goodness-of-fit test based on the Q _n statistic introduced in Fortiana and Grané [Goodness-of-fit tests based on maximum correlations and their orthogonal decompositions, J. R. Stat. Soc. B 65 (2003), pp. 115–126] using the concepts of Bahadur asymptotic relative efficiency and Bahadur asymptotic optimality. We compare the test based on this statistic with those based on the Kolmogorov–Smirnov, the Cramér-von Mises criterion and the Anderson–Darling statistics. We also describe the distribution families for which the test based on Q _n is locally asymptotically optimal in the Bahadur sense and, as an application, we use this test to detect the presence of hidden periodicities in a stationary time series.     

An asymptotic sequential test based on confidence sequences

In the context of a translation parameter family of distributions F₀(x) = F(x-θ) an asymptotic sequential test of H₀: θ ≤ -△ versus H₁: θ ≥ △ developed. The test is based on confidence sequences. In the special case where F is a specified normal distribution the proposed test is uniformly at least as efficient (in the sense of Rechanter (1960)) as the Wald sequention probibilty ratio test.     

Empirical Bayes testing for equivalence

For a fixed point θ₀ and a positive value c₀, this paper studies the problem of testing the hypotheses H₀:|θ−θ₀|≤c₀ against H₁:|θ−θ₀|>c₀ for the normal mean parameter θ using the empirical Bayes approach. With the accumulated past data, a monotone empirical Bayes test is constructed by mimicking the behavior of a monotone Bayes test. Such an empirical Bayes test is shown to be asymptotically optimal and its regret converges to zero at a rate (lnn)^2.5/n where n is the number of past data available, when the current testing problem is considered. A simulation study is also given, and the results show that the proposed empirical Bayes procedure has good performance for small to moderately large sample sizes. Our proposed method can be applied for testing close to a control problem or testing the therapeutic equivalence of one standard treatment compared to another in clinical trials.     

Second order asymptotic and non-asymptotic optimality properties of combined tests

Let p independent test statistics be available to test a null hypothesis concerned with the same parameter. The p are assumed to be similar tests. Asymptotic and non-asymptotic optimality properties of combined tests are studied. The asymptotic study centers around two notions. The first is Bahadur efficiency. The second is based on a notion of second order comparisons. The non-asymptotic study is concerned with admissibility questions. Most of the popular combining methods are considered along with a method not studied in the past. Among the results are the following: Assume each of the p statistics has the same Bahadur slope. Then the combined test based on the sum of normal transforms, is asymptotically best among all tests studied, by virtue of second order considerations. Most of the popular combined tests are inadmissible for testing the noncentrality parameter of chi-square, t, and F distributions. For chi-square a combined test is offered which is admissible, asymptotically optimal (first order), asymptotically optimal (second order) among all tests studied, and for which critical values are obtainable in special cases. Extensions of the basic model are given.     

Asymptotic normality of the minimum distance estimators for a Poisson process with a discontinuous intensity function

We consider the problem of estimation of a two-dimensional parameter θ₀=(θ₁,θ₂) of a Poisson process. The intensity function of the process is a smooth function with respect to θ₁ and is a discontinuous function of θ₂. We show the consistency and asymptotic normality of the minimum distance estimator of θ₀.     

On the wald,lagrangian multiplier and likelihood ratio tests when the information matrix is singular

Summary Modified formulas for the Wald and Lagrangian multiplier statistics are introduced and considered together with the likelihood ratio statistics for testing a typical null hypothesisH ₀ stated in terms of equality constraints. It is demonstrated, subject to known standard regularity conditions, that each of these statistics and the known Wald statistic has the asymptotic chi-square distribution with degrees of freedom equal to the number of equality constraints specified byH ₀ whether the information matrix is singular or nonsingular. The results of this paper include a generalization of the results of Sively (1959) concerning the equivalence of the Wald, Lagrange multiplier and likelihood ratio tests to the case of singular information matrices.     

Some locally optimal subset selection rules for comparison with a control

Let π₀,π₁,…,π_k be k+1 independent populations. For i=0,1,…,k,π_i has the densit f(x,θ_i), where the (unknown) parameter θ_i belongs to an interval of the real line. Our goal is to select from π₁,… π_k (experimental treatments) those populations, if any, that are better (suitably defined) than π₀ which is the control population. A locally optimal rule is derived in the class of rules for which Pr(π_i is selected)γ_i, i=1,…,k, when θ₀=θ₁=?=θ_k. The criterion used for local optimality amounts to maximizing the efficiency in a certain sense of the rule in picking out the superior populations for specific configurations of θ=(θ₀,…,θ_k) in a neighborhood of an equiparameter configuration. The general result is then applied to the following special cases: (a) normal means comparison — common known variance, (b) normal means comparison — common unknown variance, (c) gamma scale parameters comparison — known (unequal) shape parameters, and (d) comparison of regression slopes. In all these cases, the rule is obtained based on samples of unequal sizes.     

Bayesian decision theoretic approach to hypothesis problems with skewed alternatives

Many hypothesis problems in practice require the selection of the left side or the right side alternative when the null is rejected. For parametric models, this problem can be stated as _H0:θ=_θ0$H_0:\theta ={\theta }_0$vs.  _H−:θ<_θ0$H_{-}:\theta <{\theta }_0$ or _H+:θ>_θ0$H_{+}:\theta >{\theta }_0$. Frequentists use Type-III error (directional error) to develop statistical methodologies. This approach and other approaches considered in the literature do not take into account the situations where the selection of one side may be more important or when one side may be more probable than the other. This problem can be tackled by specifying a loss function and/or by specifying a hierarchical prior structure with allowing the skewness in the alternatives. Based on this, we develop a Bayesian decision theoretic methodology and show that the resulted Bayes rule perform better in the side of the alternatives which is more probable. The methodology can be also used in a frequentist's framework when it is desired to discover an alternative that is more important. We also consider the multiple hypotheses problem and develop new false discovery rates for the selection of the left and the right sides of alternatives. These discovery rates would be useful in the situations when one side of the alternatives are more important or more probable than the other.     

Goodness-of-fit tests for the Pareto distribution based on its characterization

A new characterization of the Pareto distribution is proposed, and new goodness-of-fit tests based on it are constructed. Test statistics are functionals of U-empirical processes. The first of these statistics is of integral type, it is similar to the classical statistics \(\omega _n^1\). The second one is a Kolmogorov type statistic. We show that the kernels of our statistics are non-degenerate. The limiting distribution and large deviations asymptotics of the new statistics under null hypothesis are described. Their local Bahadur efficiency for parametric alternatives is calculated. This type of efficiency is mostly appropriate for the solution of our problem since the Kolmogorov type statistic is not asymptotically normal, and the Pitman approach is not applicable to this statistic. For the second statistic we evaluate the critical values by using Monte-Carlo methods. Also conditions of local optimality of new statistics in the sense of Bahadur are discussed and examples of such special alternatives are given. For small sample size we compare the power of those tests with some common goodness-of-fit tests.     

Rank-order tests for the parallelism of several regression surfaces

For testing the hypothesis that several (s?2) linear regression surfaces X_ki=α_k+β_kc_ki+Z_ki (k=1,…,s) are parallel to one another, i.e., β₁=?=β_s, a class of rank-order tests are considered. The tests are shown to be asymptotically distribution-free, and their asymptotic efficiency relative to the general likelihood ratio test is derived. Asymptotic optimality in the sense of Wald is also discussed.     

Allocating observations between two normal populations to maximize the half slope of the F-test

Consider two independent normal populations. Let R denote the ratio of the variances. The usual procedure for testing H₀: R = 1 vs. H₁: R = r, where r≠1, is the F-test. Let θ denote the proportion of observations to be allocated to the first population. Here we find the value of θ that maximizes the rate at which the observed significance level of the F-test converges to zero under H₁, as measured by the half slope.     

Local rates of convergence for consistent estimators of location of translation families

We consider the estimation of a location parameter θ in a one-sample problem. A measure of the asymptotic performance of an estimator sequence {T_n} = T is given by the exponential rate of convergence to zero of the tail probability, which for consistent estimator sequences is bounded by a constant, B (θ, ?), called the Bahadur bound. We consider two consistent estimators: the maximum-likelihood estimator (mle) and a consistent estimator based on a likelihood-ratio statistic, which we call the probability-ratio estimator (pre). In order to compare the local behaviour of these estimators, we obtain Taylor series expansions in ? for B (θ, ?) and the exponential rates of the mle and pre. Finally, some numerical work is presented in which we consider a variety of underlying distributions.     

The minimum coverage probability of confidence intervals in regression after a preliminary F test

Consider a linear regression model with regression parameter β=(β₁,…,β_p) and independent normal errors. Suppose the parameter of interest is θ=a^Tβ, where a is specified. Define the s-dimensional parameter vector τ=C^Tβ−t, where C and t are specified. Suppose that we carry out a preliminary F test of the null hypothesis H₀:τ=0 against the alternative hypothesis H₁:τ≠0. It is common statistical practice to then construct a confidence interval for θ with nominal coverage 1−α, using the same data, based on the assumption that the selected model had been given to us a priori (as the true model). We call this the naive 1−α confidence interval for θ. This assumption is false and it may lead to this confidence interval having minimum coverage probability far below 1−α, making it completely inadequate. We provide a new elegant method for computing the minimum coverage probability of this naive confidence interval, that works well irrespective of how large s is. A very important practical application of this method is to the analysis of covariance. In this context, τ can be defined so that H₀ expresses the hypothesis of “parallelism”. Applied statisticians commonly recommend carrying out a preliminary F test of this hypothesis. We illustrate the application of our method with a real-life analysis of covariance data set and a preliminary F test for “parallelism”. We show that the naive 0.95 confidence interval has minimum coverage probability 0.0846, showing that it is completely inadequate.     

On ε-contaminated priors with quantile and piece-wise unimodality constraints

In this work we examine the e-contamination model of prior densities γ={π:π=(1-ε)π₀(θ)+εq: qεG}, where π₀(θ) is the base elicited prior, q is a contamination belonging to some suitable class G and ε reflects the amount of error in π₀(θ). Various classes with shape and/or quantile constraints are analysed, and a posterior robust analysis is carried out. It turns out that quantile restrictions alone do not produce asymptotical rational behaviour, so it is unavoidable to introduce shape constraints as well. The conclusions are in line with those of O'Hagan and Berger (1988). Illustrations related to testing hypothesis and likelihood sets are given.     

Comparison of efficiencies of some symmetry tests around an unknown centre

In this paper, some recent and classical tests of symmetry are modified for the case of an unknown centre. The unknown centre is estimated with its α-trimmed mean estimator. The asymptotic behaviour of the new tests is explored. The local approximate Bahadur efficiency is used to compare the tests to each other as well as to some other tests.     

Nonnegative unbiased estimability of linear combinations of two variance components

For a general mixed model with two variance components θ₁ and θ₂, a criterion for a function q₁θ₁+q₂θ₂ to admit an unbiased nonnegative definite quadratic estimator is established in a form that allows answering the question of existence of such an estimator more explicitly than with the use of the criteria known hitherto. An application of this result to the case of a random one-way model shows that for many unbalanced models the estimability criterion is expressible directly by the largest of the numbers of observations within levels, thus extending the criterion established by LaMotte (1973) for balanced models.