Comparisons of search designs using search probabilities

Search designs are considered for searching and estimating one nonzero interaction from the two and three factor interactions under the search linear model. We compare three 12-run search designs D1, D2, and D3, and three 11-run search designs D4, D5, and D6, for a 2⁴ factorial experiment. Designs D2 and D3 are orthogonal arrays of strength 2, D1 and D4 are balanced arrays of full strength, D5 is a balanced array of strength 2, and D6 is obtained from D3 by deleting the duplicate run. Designs D4 and D5 are also obtained by deleting a run from D1 and D2, respectively. Balanced arrays and orthogonal arrays are commonly used factorial designs in scientific experiments. “Search probabilities” are calculated for the comparison of search designs. Three criteria based on search probabilities are presented to determine the design which is most likely to identify the nonzero interaction. The calculation of these search probabilities depends on an unknown parameter ρ which has a signal-to-noise ratio form. For a given value of ρ, Criteria I and II are newly proposed in this paper and Criteria III is given in Shirakura et al. (Ann. Statist. 24 (6) (1996) 2560). We generalize Criteria I–III for all values of ρ so that the comparison of search designs can be made without requiring a specific value of ρ. We have developed simplified methods for comparing designs under these three criteria for all values of ρ. We demonstrate, under all three criteria, that the balanced array D1 is more likely to identify the nonzero interaction than the orthogonal arrays D2 and D3, and the design D4 is more likely to identify the nonzero interaction than the designs D5 and D6.The methods of comparing designs developed in this paper are applicable to other factorial experiments for searching one nonzero interaction of any order.     

Partly linear models on Riemannian manifolds

In partly linear models, the dependence of the response y on (x ^T, t) is modeled through the relationship y=x ^T β+g(t)+?, where ? is independent of (x ^T, t). We are interested in developing an estimation procedure that allows us to combine the flexibility of the partly linear models, studied by several authors, but including some variables that belong to a non-Euclidean space. The motivating application of this paper deals with the explanation of the atmospheric SO₂ pollution incidents using these models when some of the predictive variables belong in a cylinder. In this paper, the estimators of β and g are constructed when the explanatory variables t take values on a Riemannian manifold and the asymptotic properties of the proposed estimators are obtained under suitable conditions. We illustrate the use of this estimation approach using an environmental data set and we explore the performance of the estimators through a simulation study.     

Construction of orthogonal Latin hypercube designs with flexible run sizes

Latin hypercube designs (LHDs) have recently found wide applications in computer experiments. A number of methods have been proposed to construct LHDs with orthogonality among main-effects. When second-order effects are present, it is desirable that an orthogonal LHD satisfies the property that the sum of elementwise products of any three columns (whether distinct or not) is 0. The orthogonal LHDs constructed by Ye (1998), Cioppa and Lucas (2007), Sun et al. (2009) and Georgiou (2009) all have this property. However, the run size n of any design in the former three references must be a power of two (n=2^c) or a power of two plus one (n=2^c+1), which is a rather severe restriction. In this paper, we construct orthogonal LHDs with more flexible run sizes which also have the property that the sum of elementwise product of any three columns is 0. Further, we compare the proposed designs with some existing orthogonal LHDs, and prove that any orthogonal LHD with this property, including the proposed orthogonal LHD, is optimal in the sense of having the minimum values of ave(|t|), t_max, ave(|q|) and q_max.     

On the construction of orthogonal F-squares of order n from an orthogonal array (n, k, s, 2) and an OL(s, t) set

Complete sets of orthogonal F-squares of order n = s^p, where g is a prime or prime power and p is a positive integer have been constructed by Hedayat, Raghavarao, and Seiden (1975). Federer (1977) has constructed complete sets of orthogonal F-squares of order n = 4t, where t is a positive integer. We give a general procedure for constructing orthogonal F-squares of order n from an orthogonal array (n, k, s, 2) and an OL(s, t) set, where n is not necessarily a prime or prime power. In particular, we show how to construct sets of orthogonal F-squares of order n = 2s^p, where s is a prime or prime power and p is a positive integer. These sets are shown to be near complete and approach complete sets as s and/or p become large. We have also shown how to construct orthogonal arrays by these methods. In addition, the best upper bound on the number t of orthogonal F(n, λ₁), F(n, λ₂), …, F(n, λ₁) squares is given.     

Optimal designs for approximating the path of a stochastic process

We consider a centered stochastic process {X(t):t ∈ T} with known and continuous covariance function. On the basis of observations X(t₁), …, X(t_n) we approximate the whole path by orthogonal projection and measure the performance of the chosen design d = (t₁, …, t_n)′ by the corresponding mean squared L²-distance. For covariance functions on T² = [0, 1]², which satisfy a generalized Sacks-Ylvisaker regularity condition of order zero, we construct asymptotically optimal sequences of designs. Moreover, we characterize the achievement of a lower error bound, given by Micchelli and Wahba (1981), and study the question of whether this bound can be attained.     

Integral Identities for Random Variables

Using a general method for deriving identities for random variables, we find a number of new results involving characteristic functions and generating functions. The method is simply to promote a parameter in an integral relation to the status of a random variable and then take expected values of both sides of the equation. Results include formulas for calculating the characteristic functions for x ², √x, 1/x, x ² + x, R ² = x ² + y ², and so forth in terms of integral transforms of the characteristic functions for x and (x, y), and so forth. Generalizations to higher dimensions can be obtained using the same method. Expressions for inverse/fractional moments, E{n!}, and so forth are also presented, demonstrating the method.     

HITTING LINES and CIRCLES WITH DIFFUSION PROCESSES

For (x(t),y(t)), a diffusion process starting from (x(0),y(0)) = (x,y), the problem of computing the moment generating function of the first passage time T(x, y) to a given subset D of IR²is considered. A particular case of the method of similarity solutions is used. The problems that can be solved explicitly are those for which D is either a straight line or a circle.     

Some new factor screening designs using the search linear model

Factor screening designs for searching two and three effective factors using the search linear model are discussed. The construction of such factor screening designs involved finding a fraction with small number of treatments of a 2^m factorial experiment having the property P_2t (no 2t columns are linearly dependent) for t=2 and 3. A ‘Packing Problem’ is introduced in this connection. A complete solution of the problem in one case and partial solutions for the other cases are presented. Many practically useful new designs are listed.     

Orthogonal arrays and ordered designs

In the first part of this paper, we give a short and direct construction of signed orthogonal array SOA(λ,t,k,v), for any set of parameters λ,t,k,v,t ⩽ k. We also construct a specific basis of the Z-module generated by any SOA(0,t,k,v), for any t,k,v,t ⩽ k. We will then construct an inite family of large set of disjoint ordered designs by applying G.B. Khosrovshahi and S. Ajoodani-Namini's method to Luc. Teirlinck's construction.     

On some optimal fractional 2m factorial designs of resolution V

This paper presents the trace of the covariance matrix of the estimates of effects based on a fractional 2^m factorial (2^m-FF) design T of resolution V for the following two cases: One is the case where T is constructed by adding some restricted assemblies to an orthogonal array. The other is one where T is constructed by removing some restricted assemblies from an orthogonal array of index unity. In the class of 2^m-FF designs of resolution V considered here, optimal designs with respect to the trace criterion, i.e. A-optimal, are presented for m = 4, 5, and 6 and for a range of practical values of N (the total number of assemblies). Some of them are better than the corresponding A-optimal designs in the class of balanced fractional 2^m factorial designs of resolution V obtained by Srivastava and Chopra (1971b) in such a sense that the trace of the covariance matrix of the estimates is small.     

Comparison of rotatable designs for regression on balls,I (quadratic)

Designs for quadratic and cubic regression are considered when the possible choices of the controlable variable are points x=( x₁,x₂,…,x_q) in the q-dimensional. Full of radius R, B_q(R) ={x:Σ⁴_ix²_i?R²}. The designs that are optimum among rotatable designs with respect to the D-, A-, and E-optimality criteria are compared in their performance relative to these and other criteria, including extrapolation. Additionally, the performance of a design optimum for one value of R, when it is implemented for a different value of R, is investigated. Some of the results are developed algebraically; others, numerically. For example, in quadratic regression the A-optimum design appears to be fairly robust in its efficiency, under variation of criterion.     

On a class of partially balanced incomplete block designs

Bose and Clatworthy (1955) showed that the parameters of a two-class balanced incomplete block design with λ1=1,λ2=0 and satisfying r <k can be expressed in terms of just three parameters r,k,t. Later Bose (1963) showed that such a design is a partial geometry (r,k,t). Bose, Shrikhande and Singhi (1976) have defined partial geometric designs (r,k,t,c), which reduce to partial geometries when c=0. In this note we prove that any two class partially balanced (PBIB) design with r <k, is a partial geometric design for suitably chosen r,k,t,c and express the parameters of the PBIB design in terms of r,k,t,c and λ2. We also show that such PBIB designs belong to the class of special partially balanced designs (SPBIB) studied by Bridges and Shrikhande (1974).     

Partial and inverse autocorrelations in portmanteau-type tests for time series

We present a decomposition of the correlation coefficient between x_t and x_t?k into three terms that include the partial and inverse autocorrelations. The first term accounts for the portion of the autocorrelation that is explained by the inner variables {x_t?1 , x_t?2 , …, x _{t? k+1}}, the second one measures the portion explained by the outer variables {x _t+1, x _t+2, } ∪ {x _t?k?1, x _t?k?2,…} and the third term measures the correlation between x _t and x_t?k given all other variables. These terms, squared and summed, can form the basis of three portmanteau-type tests that are able to detect both deviation from white noise and lack of fit of an entertained model. Quantiles of their asymptotic sample distributions are complicated to derive at an adequate level of accuracy, so they are approximated using the Monte Carlo method. A simulation experiment is carried out to investigate significance levels and power of each test, and compare them to the portmanteau test.     

Geometric ergodicity of nonlinear autoregressive models with changing conditional variances

The authors give easy‐to‐check sufficient conditions for the geometric ergodicity and the finiteness of the moments of a random process x_t = ?(x_t‐1,…, x_t‐p) + ?_tσ(x_t‐1,…, x_t‐q) in which ?: R^p → R, σ R^q → R and (?_t) is a sequence of independent and identically distributed random variables. They deduce strong mixing properties for this class of nonlinear autoregressive models with changing conditional variances which includes, among others, the ARCH(p), the AR(p)‐ARCH(p), and the double‐threshold autoregressive models.     

Efficient crossover designs in the presence of interactions between direct and carry-over treatment effects

Crossover designs, or repeated measurements designs, are used for experiments in which t treatments are applied to each of n experimental units successively over p time periods. Such experiments are widely used in areas such as clinical trials, experimental psychology and agricultural field trials. In addition to the direct effect on the response of the treatment in the period of application, there is also the possible presence of a residual, or carry-over, effect of a treatment from one or more previous periods. We use a model in which the residual effect from a treatment depends upon the treatment applied in the succeeding period; that is, a model which includes interactions between the treatment direct and residual effects. We assume that residual effects do not persist further than one succeeding period.A particular class of strongly balanced repeated measurements designs with n=t² units and which are uniform on the periods is examined. A lower bound for the A-efficiency of the designs for estimating the direct effects is derived and it is shown that such designs are highly efficient for any number of periods p=2,…,2t.     

A characterization of invariant power-series abundance distributions

Consider a population the individuals in which can be classified into groups. Let y, the number of individuals in a group, be distributed according to a probability function f(y;ø_o) where the functional form f is known. The random variable y cannot be observed directly, and hence a random sample of groups cannot be obtained. Consider a random sample of N individuals from the population. Suppose the N individuals are distributed into S groups with x₁, x₂, …, x_S representatives respectively. The random variable x, the number of individuals in a group in the sample, will be a fraction of its population counterpart y, and the distributions of x and y need not have the same functional form. If the two random variables x and y have the same functional form for their distributions, then the particular common distribution is called an invariant abundance distribution. The paper provides a characterization of invariant abundance distributions in the class of power-series distributions.     

A unified approach to characterization problems using conditional expectations

In recent years characterization problems have become of increasing interest. It is well known that mean residual life e(x) = E(X - x|X ⩾x) and right-censored mean function m_R(x) = E(X | X ⩽ x), uniquely determine the distribution function F(x) = P(X ⩽ x). In this paper, we study characterizations problems for general distributions, using the doubly censored mean function m(x, y) = E(X | x⩽X⩽y). We show that m(x, y) characterizes F(x), obtaining the explicit expression of F(x) from m(x, y). Moreover, we give properties that any function must verifies to be a doubly censored mean function and we obtain stability theorems for these characterizations.     

Marginally restricted sequential D‐optimal designs

In many experiments, not all explanatory variables can be controlled. When the units arise sequentially, different approaches may be used. The authors study a natural sequential procedure for “marginally restricted” D‐optimal designs. They assume that one set of explanatory variables (x₁) is observed sequentially, and that the experimenter responds by choosing an appropriate value of the explanatory variable x₂. In order to solve the sequential problem a priori, the authors consider the problem of constructing optimal designs with a prior marginal distribution for x₁. This eliminates the influence of units already observed on the next unit to be designed. They give explicit designs for various cases in which the mean response follows a linear regression model; they also consider a case study with a nonlinear logistic response. They find that the optimal strategy often consists of randomizing the assignment of the values of x₂.     

On orthogonal arrays attaining Rao's bounds

Rao (1947) provided two inequalities on parameters of an orthogonal array OA(N,m,s,t). An orthogonal array attaining these Rao bounds is said to be complete. Noda (1979) characterized complete orthogonal arrays of t=4 (strength). We here investigate complete orthogonal arrays with s=2 (levels) and general t; and with t=2, 3 and general s.