Selection of Logistic Service Providers for the transportation of refrigerated goods

The aim of this article is to propose a decision model based on Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) for the evaluation and selection of Logistics Service Providers (LSPs) for a refrigerated products company. The results indicated that quality, responsiveness and reliability are the most important criteria for selecting an LSP for the transportation of perishable refrigerated goods, considering contractor’s profile, which is based on protection of its brand and reputation in the market. In addition, sensitivity analysis is performed to verify priority ranking stability. Therefore, this research illustrates how AHP model could be implemented to help the decision-making process for selecting third-party services in logistics for perishable refrigerated goods effectively.     

Application of control charts in analytic hierarchy process

Vendor rating can be done using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) by a single decision maker or a group of decision makers. This approach may suffer from some drawbacks including bias in estimation process. The proposed methodology in this paper involves estimation by a group on an individual basis following the principle of anonymity. A control chart is constructed with an upper control limit and a lower control limit. Implementation ofthiscontrol chart will take into account the dynamic nature of vendor performance and also can be used for continuous monitoring of the vendor performance. This procedure can be used for a single vendor as well as for multiple vendor rating.     

A decision support system for the selection of a casting process using analytic hierarchy process

This paper presents an Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) based decision support system to select the most suitable casting process for a given product. The hierarchical structure of the proposed method allows the decision maker to compare the different casting processes using the material suitability and flexibility, geometrical complexity, dimensional tolerance and surface finish of the casting, and the cost as the criteria for selection. Judgemental inconsistency of the decision maker in selecting the casting process is taken care by ensuring that the value of consistency ratio is below (0.1). A numerical example is presented to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed methodology for selecting the suitable casting process.     

Developing a supplier selection system through integrating fuzzy AHP and fuzzy DEA: a case study on an auto lighting system company in Taiwan

Supplier selection plays a very important role in supply chain management. This study intends to develop a novel performance evaluation method, which integrates both fuzzy analytical hierarchy process (AHP) method and fuzzy data envelopment analysis (DEA) for assisting organisations to make the supplier selection decision. Fuzzy AHP method is first applied to find the indicators’ weights through expert questionnaire survey. Then, these weights are integrated with fuzzy DEA. We use α -cut set and extension principle of fuzzy set theory to simplify the fuzzy DEA as a pair of traditional DEA model. Finally, fuzzy ranking using maximising and minimising set method is able to rank the evaluation samples. A case study on an internationally well-known auto lighting OEM company shows that the proposed method is very suitable for practical applications.     

On the Rank-Based Selection Strategy for the Group Interview Problem*

For the so-called group interview problem in which several groups of choice alternatives are presented sequentially to the decision maker, the optimal selection strategy is derived that minimizes the expected rank of the selected choice or purchased product. For the case in which the sequence of groups can be rearranged by the decision maker, a simple heuristic procedure is proposed for obtaining a near-optimal sequence of groups, and the performance of the heuristic procedure in a Monte Carlo simulation is accessed. According to the heuristic procedure, the consumer is advised to visit smaller stores first and then move to larger stores later to increase the likelihood of finding a better product. Finally, the optimal selection strategy and the heuristic procedure are compared with those proposed by Chun, Moskowitz, and Plante (1993) and the problem of locating a new store in an area where there are several competing stores is discussed. The optimal selection strategy and the heuristic procedure can be applied to many sequential decision problems such as the consumer search and purchase process.     

A fuzzy set approach for R&D portfolio selection using a real options valuation model

Making R&D portfolio decision is difficult, because long lead times of R&D and market and technology dynamics lead to unavailable and unreliable collected data for portfolio management. The objective of this research is to develop a fuzzy R&D portfolio selection model to hedge against the R&D uncertainty. Fuzzy set theory is applied to model uncertain and flexible project information. Since traditional project valuation methods often underestimate the risky project, a fuzzy compound-options model is used to evaluate the value of each R&D project. The R&D portfolio selection problem is formulated as a fuzzy zero–one integer programming model that can handle both uncertain and flexible parameters to determine the optimal project portfolio. A new transformation method based on qualitative possibility theory is developed to convert the fuzzy portfolio selection model into a crisp mathematical model from the risk-averse perspective. The transformed model can be solved by an optimization technique. An example is used to illustrate the proposed approach. We conclude that the proposed approach can assist decision makers in selecting suitable R&D portfolios, while there is a lack of reliable project information.     

信号成本与服务外包供应商信号传递关系的博弈模型

由于服务外包市场的信息不对称性和不完美性,外包商难以清楚了解供应商的能力,使得服务外包供应商选择市场出现逆向选择。为解决非对称信息条件下服务外包供应商选择市场运行的低效问题,本文利用信号博弈建立了信号成本与外包供应商信号传递关系的数学模型,并通过案例分析说明了该模型对管理的指导意义。     

基于最小偏差组合权重的突发事件应急能力评价模型

在突发事件应急能力评价问题中存在着不同评价方法的冲突性,即群决策评价结果的方法依赖性问题。本文以高速公路突发事件应急能力评价为研究对象,提出了基于最小偏差组合权重的评价模型。首先,系统地分析了高速公路突发事件应急能力的评价问题,建立了基于过程管理的高速公路突发事件应急能力评价的指标体系。根据语言评价指标分别运用二元语义层次分析法、G1主观赋权法和基于熵值法的二元语义赋权法等三种方法确定各评价指标的权重,然后综合各种评价方法构建了基于最小偏差的组合权重线性规划模型,确定准则层的最优复合权重,得出高速公路应急能力的评价值。最后,以上海"9·14"重大道路交通事故作为应急能力评价的分析案例,比较了不同评价模型的结果,并对评价指标进行敏感性分析。研究结果表明,基于最小偏差组合权重的评价模型能够在多个评价模型中达到最大的一致性,从而有效地减少了群决策中不同主客观评价方法的"极化"效应。     

Distribution of Aggregate Utility Using Stochastic Elements of Additive Multiattribute Utility Models

Conventionally, elements of a multiattribute utility model characterizing a decision maker's preferences, such as attribute weights and attribute utilities, are treated as deterministic, which may be unrealistic because assessment of such elements can be imprecise and erroneous, or differ among a group of individuals. Moreover, attempting to make precise assessments can be time consuming and cognitively demanding. We propose to treat such elements as stochastic variables to account for inconsistency and imprecision in such assessments. Under these assumptions, we develop procedures for computing the probability distribution of aggregate utility for an additive multiattribute utility function (MAUF), based on the Edgeworth expansion. When the distributions of aggregate utility for all alternatives in a decision problem are known, stochastic dominance can then be invoked to filter inferior alternatives. We show that, under certain mild conditions, the aggregate utility distribution approaches normality as the number of attributes increases. Thus, only a few terms from the Edgeworth expansion with a standard normal density as the base function will be sufficient for approximating an aggregate utility distribution in practice. Moreover, the more symmetric the attribute utility distributions, the fewer the attributes to achieve normality. The Edgeworth expansion thus can provide a basis for a computationally viable approach for representing an aggregate utility distribution with imprecisely specified attribute weights and utilities assessments (or differing weights and utilities across individuals). Practical guidelines for using the Edgeworth approximation are given. The proposed methodology is illustrated using a vendor selection problem.     

A decision tree approach for selecting between demand based,reorder, and JIT/kanban methods for material procurement

In designing mechanisms for the procurement of raw materials, a manager is often faced with the task of selecting from a variety of possible methods. Since the performance of these methods is a function of the environment in which they are implemented, it is the responsibility of the manager to select the method best suited for a particular application. In this paper we present a methodology for assisting managers in the selection process. Specifically, three classes of procurement methods are considered, these are: demand based, reorder, and JIT methods. The selection methodology is structured as a decision tree, which considers the annual usage value, lead time ratio, holding cost, vendor location, vendor delivery performance, and material supply value. Each factor is evaluated on a three level scale, and on the basis of these evaluations the tree makes a selection. The application of the methodology is illustrated via some examples.     

Consistency and Accuracy in Decision Aids: Experiments with Four Multiattribute Systems*

There have been a number of multiattribute decision aids developed to aid selection problems. Multiattribute value theory and the analytic hierarchy process are two commonly used techniques. Different systems can result in radically different conclusions if they inaccurately and inconsistently reflect the preference structure of decision makers, or if they are based on inappropriate theoretical models. This study examines the impact of the underlying theoretical model, the method in which preference information is elicited, and the structure of alternatives as influences on the results from using various decision aids. It was found that two systems based on the multiattribute value theory model were just as diverse in their conclusions as were results between AHP and the multiattribute value theory models. Therefore, accuracy of information reflecting decision maker preference is an important consideration. Feedback capable of assuring the decision maker that information provided is consistent is a necessary feature required of decision aids applied to selection problems. The study also found that the way in which information is elicited influenced the result more than did the underlying model. Exact numerical data for complex concepts such as attribute importance and alternative performance on attributes is not necessary, and elicitation procedures that are more natural for the user are likely to be more accurate.     

群体两两比较判断集成的最短距离方法

本文将Yu和Cook等提出的一般距离的概念应用到群体决策问题中,基于AHP原理,给出了群体决策集成问题的定义,综述了现有的两两比较判断集成方法,提出了一种基于最短距离的集成方法——最短距离方法(Mini-mum Distance Method,MSM),并用数值例示进行了说明,最后讨论了群体决策以及AHP未来可能的研究课题。     

不完全信息下多阶段移动应用产品与服务合作的可更新契约

考虑不完全信息下由提供移动应用产品与服务的ERP厂商、APP厂商与客户企业组成的产品服务供应链,针对ERP厂商与APP厂商产品服务合作中存在的逆向选择与道德风险问题,构建两阶段的动态博弈模型,分析了APP厂商隐藏与披露能力信息对产品与服务质量、供应链系统绩效与ERP厂商利润的影响,提出了信息披露、收益共享的单阶段契约与存在契约变更的两阶段契约激励策略,比较了两种契约的价值。研究表明：通过在产品开发阶段观察APP厂商的契约菜单选择以及获得的产品质量信息,甄别APP厂商的能力信息,在服务阶段进行契约变更,有利于提高产品与服务质量,降低ERP厂商风险,使供应链系统利润与ERP厂商自身利润实现帕累托改善。最后,通过算例对研究结论进行了直观考察和说明。     

A Decision Support System for Production/ Distribution Planning in Continuous Manufacturing

This paper presents a decision support system (DSS) for managing production/distribution planning in a continuous manufacturing environment. The vendor has multiple plants and distribution centers (DCs). The trading partners have widely varying independent demand patterns. The DSS is designed for use in a multiproduct environment with overlapping raw materials and processing requirements. The production and distribution lead times at plants may span multiple planning periods. The impact of any manual override of a suggested solution can also be evaluated. The DSS is based on a linear programming model with a rolling horizon and was originally designed for a large process industry. Results of a pilot implementation using actual data are also presented, which show potential for significant savings for the company.     

Selecting a Portfolio of Technologies: An Application of Decision Analysis

The Department of Energy is faced with the critical and complex decision of selecting technologies for waste site remediation. This research focuses on developing a decision support tool which assists the decision maker to find an optimal portfolio. A portfolio consists of selecting the appropriate processes for a remediation site and, subsequently, selecting a technology for each process so that the decision maker's objectives are achieved. The measures supporting the objectives are risk, life-cycle cost, and time required for remediation. The model uses exponential attribute utility functions with an additive objective function. The model provides the decision maker with estimates of the cost and time distributions, and their associated utility. Cumulative frequency distributions illustrate the dominance of technology choices and the variance in the results. The model permits sensitivity analysis in the form of rainbow and tornado diagrams to display the effects of changes in the values of the input variables. Overall, the model provides a generic technology selection tool that can be used to make better informed decisions and may be easily manipulated to reflect changes in the remediation process.     

考虑不同碳排放处理模式的动态供应商选择及采购批量问题研究

不同的碳排放处理模式及不确定的市场需求等因素影响下,如何选择供应商并确定采购批量直接影响企业的运营和效益。本文在多时间周期、多产品种类、多供应商及随机需求情形下,同时考虑不同碳排放处理模式,分析动态供应商选择及采购批量等最优决策问题,构建混合整数非线性规划模型。通过设计变异算子和扰动因子来改进粒子群算法,力求在短时间内求解大规模决策问题。针对不同规模供应商选择及采购批量决策问题,采用精确方法、近似方法和改进粒子群算法求解。数值实验验证了模型及改进粒子群算法的有效性和可行性,分析了碳税、碳交易价格及碳限额对供应链管理的影响,并给出了供应商选择及碳排放处理的决策参考建议。     

Processing in a multi-machine batch manufacturing system with sequence dependent cost

Many workcells in batch manufacturing systems are populated with multiple, nonidentical machines that perform similar tasks. Because of the size of a batch when a job arrives, it may be uneconomical to set up two or more machines to process the same job simultaneously. An economic decision has to be made as regards which machine in the cell to assign the job. Likewise, many multi-operation jobs can be processed using one of several feasible operation sequences that may lead to different total manufacturing costs. The cost differences are the result of several factors, among which are processing time and cost dependencies between operations, fixturing requirements, and material handling requirements. When the workcell machine selection decision is considered along with the operation sequencing decision, determination of the best machine in a cell and the best operation sequence for the batch is a non-trivial task. In this paper, we address the problem of selecting the best machine within a cell and the best operation sequence for a batch when operation cost is machine and sequence dependent. The problem is modeled mathematically and solved using a heuristic algorithm. The performance of the algorithm is compared with that of an exact solution procedure.     

Global supplier development considering risk factors using fuzzy extended AHP-based approach

Global supplier development is a multi-criterion decision problem which includes both qualitative and quantitative factors. The global supplier selection problem is more complex than domestic one and it needs more critical analysis. The aim of this paper is to identify and discuss some of the important and critical decision criteria including risk factors for the development of an efficient system for global supplier selection. Fuzzy extended analytic hierarchy process (FEAHP) based methodology will be discussed to tackle the different decision criteria like cost, quality, service performance and supplier's profile including the risk factors involved in the selection of global supplier in the current business scenario. FEAHP is an efficient tool to handle the fuzziness of the data involved in deciding the preferences of different decision variables. The linguistic level of comparisons produced by the customers and experts for each comparison are tapped in the form triangular fuzzy numbers to construct fuzzy pair-wise comparison matrices. The implementation of the system is demonstrated by a problem having four stages of hierarchy which contains different criteria and attributes at wider perspective. The proposed model can provide not only a framework for the organization to select the global supplier but also has the capability to deploy the organization's strategy to its supplier.     

THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE ANALYTIC HIERARCHY PROCESS AND THE ADDITIVE VALUE FUNCTION*

The relationship between the analytical hierarchy process (AHP), a multiple-criteria decision method based on the properties of the eigenvalues of positive reciprocal matrices, and the additive value function is studied. The AHP is compared with the standard method of building an additive value function. The advantages and disadvantages of each method are discussed and a new method that uses elements of both is proposed. The proposed method relies on the AHP for building the unidimensional value functions and incorporates the systematic use of pairwise comparisons into the standard method of estimating the weights of the additive value function. Subject Area: Decision Processes.     

An integrated approach for the electronic contract manufacturer selection problem

In the global competitive environment, lead companies have to outsource their manufacturing to electronic contract manufacturers (ECM) in order to reduce operational cost and capture higher profit. Thus, the process of selecting contract manufacturers to be strategic partners is important for these companies. For this reason, this paper proposes an integrated approach for the electronic contract manufacturer selection problem, combining the voting method and the goal programming (GP) model to take into account quantitative factors involved in the selection process, which is applied to a real-world ECM selection problem encountered by a leading provider of complete broadband access solutions. Results of the case study indicate that the voting method can acquire the rating information quickly from manufacturing managers based on suitable evaluating criteria. The rating information simultaneously incorporates ECMs' performance scores as a weight for each ECM. A production planner can easily employ the GP model and ECMs’ weight information to effectively assign demand quantities to ECMs. Therefore, the integrated approach is a practical and useful tool for solving the contract manufacturer selection problem.