The impact of local labour markets on investment in further education: Evidence from the England and Wales youth cohort studies

The paper focuses on the individual's choice of activity on completion of compulsory schooling – to remain in full-time education or to seek employment – and the factors influencing this decision. Information from the England and Wales Youth Cohort Studies, coupled with labour market data, is used to estimate of logit model of choice and assess the role played by social and market factors. The results show that labour market conditions play an influential role in determining outcomes, particularly in the case of young males with weaker academic qualifications. Consistent with the time-series evidence, we find that participation rates in further education for both males and females are positively related to the unemployment rate in the local labour market, the effects being greater at times of economic recession when unemployment rates are rising. Received: 5 May 1997/Accepted: 17 July 1998     

Natives and migrants in the London labour market, 1929–1931

Migrants are sometimes regarded as marginal workers in metropolitan labour markets. London has long been a major destination for migrants from elsewhere in Britain and abroad. In this paper we examine the earnings and unemployment experience in 1929–1931 of male workers who migrated to London, or within London. We use data from the New Survey of London Life and Labour, a large survey of working class households, the records from which have recently been computerised. Our findings indicate that migrants were not marginal, in fact they enjoyed slightly higher earnings and lower unemployment incidence than native Londoners. Much of the advantage can be explained by differences in average skill levels and personal characteristics. Received: 2 November 1999/Accepted: 3 August 2000     

Transitions from employment among young Norwegian workers

In a large representative sample of young Norwegian workers, we estimate gross transitions to unemployment, education, and other exits in a multinomial logit. In line with received literature, we find that individuals with high education, experience, and income have significantly lower probabilities of job exits. While female education rates have increased to surpass those of males, female labour market outcomes are still more responsive to family related background characteristics as compared with the outcomes for males. Received: 17 October 1996/Accepted: 5 March 1999     

The unemployment insurance compensation experience of immigrants in Canada, 1980-1988

This paper utilizes a new data set, compiled by Citizenship and Immigration Canada, Revenue Canada and Statistics Canada, to examine the unemployment experience of Canadian immigrant cohorts over the time period 1980 to 1988. Using the records of unemployment insurance benefits of persons who immigrated to Canada in those years and who filed income tax returns, the unemployment experiences of those people are compared by landing year, gender, level of education, language ability, and country of last permanent residence. The determinants of the proportion of each immigrant cohort that received unemployment insurance benefits are estimated by relating the proportions to landing year, duration of time in Canada, and labour market conditions. Briefly, we find no obvious influences on UI receipt behaviour following the immigration reforms of 1982. However, the recession of 1981–82 had a major impact on incomes which did not recover until 5 or 6 years later. Nevertheless, more generous UI benefits did raise slightly the likelihood of UI receipts. Received: 5 December 1995 / Accepted: 14 August 1996     

Youth unemployment and government policy

Young people of working age tend to be particularly prone to labor market inefficiencies that keep their wages excessively high and their employment excessively low. These inefficiencies are usually magnified through unemployment benefit systems. This paper examines how these problems can be tackled through “employment vouchers,” i.e. hiring subsidies or tax breaks for the unemployed. It examines how vouchers to the young unemployed should differ from those to the adult unemployed. The employment vouchers considered here reduce unemployment and impose no cost on the government, since they are financed by the induced fall in government expenditures on unemployment benefits. Among other things, we find that young workers should receive lower vouchers as displacement of the old rises and as deadweight from providing vouchers to the old increases.     

Norwegian cohort emigration

This paper introduces a counterfactual technique to estimate net emigration from Norwegian birth cohorts from 1846 to 1900. A main finding is that despite strong fluctuations in annual emigration, the percentage reduction of each cohort due to emigration was surprisingly stable for all cohorts from 1846 to 1886, with net emigration of about 30% for males and about 20% for females. Estimating an econometric model of annual male gross emigration by single years of age 15–60 in the period 1870–1914, we find that previous net emigration from a cohort reduces later gross emigration from the same cohort. The estimations also give some justification for attributing this to selectivity of emigration, in the sense that only a certain proportion of each cohort were potential migrants. Received: 1 October 1997/Accepted: 23 March 2000     

The decisions of Spanish youth: A cross-section study

This paper presents a simultaneous model for the joint decisions of working, studying and leaving the parental household by young people in Spain. Using cross-section data from the 1990–1991 Encuesta de Presupuestos Familiares, the model is estimated by a two stage estimation method. Endogeneity of the three decisions proves to be important in order to understand the dynamics of household formation. Our results also confirm a number of plausible intuitions about the effect of individual characteristics and economic variables on these decisions, and provide some new insights into the reasons for young people in Spain remaining in large numbers in the parental home. Most of the results are gender independent. Received: 18 September 1998/Accepted: 24 October 2000     

Sectoral gender wage differentials and discrimination in the transitional Chinese economy

China's economic reform has affected various ownership sectors to different degree. A comparison of gender wage differentials and discrimination among individuals employed in the three sectors – state sector, the collective sector, and the private sector – provides information on the impact of economic reform. Two Chinese data sets from Shanghai and Jinan are used to examine the gender wage gap across the three sectors. It is found that privatization/marketization of the economy leads to larger wage differentials as human capital characteristics are more appropriately rewarded. Both data sets show that the relative share of discrimination in the overall gender wage differential declines substantially across ownership sectors from the state to the private. The increase in gender wage differential due to marketization is much larger than any increase in differential that may arise from more gender discrimination. Received: 5 November 1997/Accepted: 10 January 2000     

The fortunes of one's birth: Relative cohort size and the youth labor market in the United States

Using two different measures of relative cohort size – one indicating the size and placement of an individual's own birth cohort, and the other, the ratio of young to prime age adults in the United States in that year – it has been possible to isolate strong effects of the population age structure on wages in the United States over the past thirty-three years. These effects have been strong enough that virtually all of the observed change in the experience premium, and a substantial proportion of the changes in the college wage premium, can be explained by the relative cohort size variables alone. Even changes in the amount of within-group variance in wages appear to be largely a function of changing age structure, and absolute wage levels have been strongly affected by these demographic changes, suggesting that population growth can have positive effects on the economy. Received: 27 January 1998/Accepted: 6 June 1998     

Poland on the dole: The effect of reducing the unemployment benefit entitlement period during transition

We analyse the unemployment benefit regime change that occurred in Poland in December 1991 using data from the Polish Labour Force Survey. Before December 1991, the entitlement period to unemployment benefits was unlimited. Thereafter, it was reduced to 12 months (with a few exceptions). Using the difference-in-differences approach within a hazard rate framework, we find that the regime change did not have a significant effect on the duration of unemployment. The results thus give credence to the view that the unlimited entitlement period of the old unemployment benefit regime was not the main culprit for the long durations of unemployment in Poland, although the generous eligibility criteria may have contributed to the increase in the incidence of registered unemployment at the beginning of the transition process. Received: 21 May 1997/Accepted: 15 March 1999     

Unskilled labor and wage determination: an empirical investigation for Germany

This article contributes to the ongoing debate on native wage impacts of immigration. I propose a mobile-fixed factor distinction as a framework in which to think about the differential impact of immigration on various labor market groups. Skilled workers are treated as a fixed factor of production since the strong reliance on skill certification in Germany inhibits mobility and shelters from competition. Unskilled workers, in contrast, receive competitive wages. Using data from the German Socio-Economic Panel for 1984–1989 I estimate panel wage regressions for groups of workers separated by skill certification. I find that university graduates‘ wages increase, and the wages of workers without postsecondary degree decrease, as the industry share of unskilled workers increases. The effect for apprentices is ambiguous. JEL classification: F22, J31 Received January 19, 1995 / Accepted August 14, 1995     

The performance of immigrants in the Norwegian labor market

This paper tests the assimilation hypothesis with Norwegian data. Using both cross-section and cohort analyses, the results show that the 1970–1979 immigrant cohort experienced an earnings growth of about 11% between 1980 and 1990, when their earnings profile was compared to that of natives. This is lower than the 19% assimilation rate predicted by the cross-section method. On the contrary, the results reveal a rapid earnings divergence across cohorts, and between the 1960–1969 cohort and natives. It is also shown that the „quality” of successive immigrant waves has declined over time, thus biasing the cross-section estimates of assimilation. Received: 8 August 1995 / Accepted: 7 January 1997     

Family structure and children's achievements

In this paper we estimate the relationships between several outcomes in early adulthood (educational attainment, economic inactivity, early childbearing, distress and smoking) and experience of life in a single-parent family during childhood. The analysis is performed using a special sample of young adults, who are selected from the first five waves of the British Household Panel Survey (1991–95) and can be matched with at least one sibling over the same period. We also perform level (logit) estimation using another sample of young adults from the BHPS. We find that: (i) experience of life in a single-parent family is usually associated with disadvantageous outcomes for young adults; (ii) most of the unfavourable outcomes are linked to an early family disruption, when the child was aged 0–5; and (iii) level estimates, whose causal interpretation relies on stronger assumptions, confirm the previous results and show that, for most outcomes, the adverse family structure effect persists even after controlling for the economic conditions of the family of origin. Received: 24 August 1998/Accepted: 21 January 2000     

Changing fertility rates in developed countries. The impact of labor market institutions

During the last two decades fertility rates have decreased and have become positively correlated with female participation rates across OECD countries. I use a panel of 23 OECD nations to study how different labor market arrangements shaped these trends. High unemployment and unstable contracts, common in Southern Europe, depress fertility, particularly of younger women. To increase lifetime income though early skill-acquisition and minimize unemployment risk, young women postpone (or abandon) childbearing. Further, both a large share of public employment, by providing employment stability, and generous maternity benefits linked to previous employment, such as those in Scandinavia, boost fertility of the 25–29 and 30–34 year old women.Financial help from a CRB grant from the University of Illinois is gratefully acknowledged. I would like to thank Carles Boix, Barry Chiswick, Carmel Chiswick, Evelyn Lehrer, three anonymous referees and seminar participants at ESPE 2000 (Bonn), Illinois Economic Meetings 2000 (Chicago), Simposi dAnalisi Economica 2000 (Barcelona), 2001 Winter meetings of the Econometric Society in New Orleans, ESPE 2001 (Athens), Braga (Portugal), University of Chicago, De Paul University, PAA 2002 (Atlanta) for helpful comments; Gosta Esping-Andersen for providing some data and Cristina Mora for excellent research assistance. Responsible editor: Junsen Zhang.     

Transitions from Temporary to Permanent Work in Canada: Who Makes the Transition and Why?

The focus of this paper is on a microeconomic analysis of the annual transition rate from temporary to permanent work of individual workers in Canada for the period 1999–2004. Given that a large proportion of temporary employment is involuntary, an understanding of the factors associated with the transition to permanent work may inform public policy. Factors associated with the transition, namely, human capital, household structures and labour market segmentation are analyzed using data from the Statistics Canada’s Survey of Labour and Income Dynamics (SLID) for the period 1999–2004, limited to paid workers aged 20–64 years, excluding students. Among the key factors associated with the transitions are younger age and low unemployment rates. The analysis adds to the Canadian and international literature on transitions from temporary to permanent work.

Duration dependence and heterogeneity in French youth unemployment durations

This paper investigates the degree to which the individual exit rate out of unemployment for young job seekers changes as a function of the elapsed unemployment duration. We use a nonparametric estimation method for population data on outflows from different duration classes. The method also provides estimates of the amount of unobserved heterogeneity in these data. We explicitly take into account that individual exit rates are affected by the business cycle. The method is applied to population data on young French unemployed job seekers. The results are used for policy recommendations. Received: 17 October 1996/Accepted: 23 July 1998     

Cyclical variations in unemployment duration

In this paper I study how individual unemployment durations vary over the business cycle, using unemployment spells of a sample of Danish workers. A compositional, an outflow, and a residual calendar-time component are identified, and they all contribute to explaining the variations in unemployment duration. Based on the analysis it is concluded that long-term unemployment is a phenomenon that is associated with periods of high unemployment, but nothing should prevent the long-term unemployed finding jobs again as aggregate unemployment eventually starts falling. In particular, there is no evidence of negative duration dependence, not even at long durations, and not when aggregate unemployment is high. Received: 7 December 1998/Accepted: 24 August 1999     

Do stepping-stone jobs exist? Early career paths in the medical profession

In the Netherlands, students who want to become a medical specialist have to enrol in a training program which is in limited supply. During the search for a position as trainee (or “junior medical specialist”), they may accept a temporary job as a medical assistant. We use a micro data set to investigate whether such work experience increases the probability of becoming junior medical specialist. To deal with selectivity, we simultaneously model the transitions from unemployment to trainee, from unemployment to medical assistant, from medical assistant to trainee and from medical assistant to unemployment. We find that a job as medical assistant helps to become a medical specialist. Received: 27 July 2000/Accepted: 31 January 2001 All correspondence to Gerard J. van den Berg. Responsible editor: John F. Ermisch.     

The impact of the labour market on the timing of marriage and births in Spain

This paper investigates how education and the labour market affect Spanish individual decisions on the timing of marriage and births, using a Cox hazard approach. It disentangles men and women, and two groups, Cohort 1945–1960 and Cohort 1961–1977. Results show that female employment delays marriage in Cohort 1945–1960, but it has a reverse effect in Cohort 1961–1977. We also find evidence that employment is a barrier for family formation since employed women postpone births in both cohorts. The precarious Spanish labour markets, captured by female unemployment rates, delay family formation, especially by putting off marriage. Male unemployment, at the individual level, impacts negatively on fertility only through delaying marriage.

Fertility and the Easterlin hypothesis: an assessment of the literature

Focusing just on the fertility aspects of the Easterlin hypothesis, this paper offers a critical assessment – rather than just a selective citation – of the extensive fertility literature generated by Easterlin, and a complete inventory of data and methodologies in seventy-six published analyses. With an equal number of micro- and macro-level analyses using North American data (twenty-two), the „track record” of the hypothesis is the same in both venues, with fifteen providing significant support in each case. The literature suggests unequivocal support for the relativity of the income concept in fertility, but is less clear regarding the source(s) of differences in material aspirations, and suggests that the observed relationship between fertility and cohort size has varied across countries and time periods due to the effects of additional factors not included in most models. Received: 16 July 1996 / Accepted: 26 September 1997