Multiple paths in educational transitions: A multinomial transition model with unobserved heterogeneity

In many countries educational branching points consist of more than two qualitatively different alternatives, and only some alternatives provide the opportunity of continuing into higher education. I develop a multinomial transition model for modeling the effects of family background characteristics and individual characteristics on these complex educational careers. The model controls for unobserved heterogeneity that may, if ignored, result in biased estimates. Compared to previous research, I explicitly include instrumental variables that ensure identification of the unobserved component. I apply the model to the Danish case and analyze data which covers the educational careers of a cohort of Danes born around 1954. I find that the model brings forward non-trivial heterogeneity in the influence of family background and ability on qualitatively different choice alternatives both within and across transitions. I also find that not controlling for unobserved heterogeneity leads to marked underestimation of the family background effect on both early and late transitions in the educational career.     

Accounting for dynamic selection bias in educational transitions: The Cameron-Heckman latent class estimator and its generalizations

The sequential logit model of educational transitions has long been the dominant modeling framework for the study of inequality of educational opportunity ever since the seminal works of [Mare, 1980] and [Mare, 1981]. But conventional applications of the model are known to be biased by the ubiquitous presence of unobserved heterogeneity. Cameron and Heckman (1998) propose a logit model that allows for two or three latent classes if the selection bias is solely generated by a person-specific component of stable unobserved heterogeneity. To evaluate the latent class logit regression estimator, this study makes use of simulated data to eliminate the influences of other problems of transition modeling. The simulation is based on five independent pairs of large samples generated from standard distributional assumptions of transition modeling. The new estimator appears to be an effective way to adjust for dynamic selection bias when family background effects are transition-invariant and sample size is in the order of ten thousand or above. By contrast, the conventional sequential logit model produces results that are very different from the data generating models. This study also considers two alternative ways to improve statistical efficiency: (1) incorporate a crude indicator of stable unobserved heterogeneity; (2) pool the effect estimates across transitions, background variables, and alternative estimators to smooth out noise under the null hypothesis of transition invariance. In addition, this study examines the impact of indicator reliability and sample size on the performance of the latent class regression models and suggests practical guidelines.     

Death and schooling decisions over the short and long run in rural Madagascar

This paper provides strong evidence that adult mortality has a negative impact on children educational outcomes, both over the short and the long run, in rural Madagascar. The underlying longitudinal data and the difference-in-differences strategy used overcome most of the previous cross-sectional study limitations, such as failure to control for child and household pre-death characteristics and unobserved heterogeneity. This paper also pays special attention to the heterogeneity, robustness, and long-run persistence of effects. Results show that orphans are on average 10 pp less likely to attend school than their nonorphaned counterparts, this effect being even more pronounced for girls and young children from poorer households. Results on adults further show that those orphaned during childhood eventually completed less education. These findings suggest that not only do households suffering unexpected shocks resort to schooling adjustments as an immediate risk-coping strategy, but also that adversity has long-lasting effects on human capital accumulation.     

Constrained vs unconstrained labor supply: the economics of dual job holding

This paper develops a unified model of dual and unitary job holding based on a Stone-Geary utility function. The model incorporates both constrained and unconstrained labor supply. Panel data methods are adapted to accommodate unobserved heterogeneity and multinomial selection into six mutually exclusive labor supply regimes. We estimate the wage and income elasticities arising from selection and unobserved heterogeneity as well as from the Stone-Geary Slutsky equations. The labor supply model is estimated with data from the British Household Panel Survey 1991–2008. Among dual job holders, our study finds that the Stone-Geary income and wage elasticities are much larger for labor supply to the second job compared with the main job. When the effects of selection and unobserved heterogeneity are taken account of, the magnitudes of these elasticities on the second job tend to be significantly reduced.     

Unobserved Heterogeneity Can Confound the Effect of Education on Mortality

Two opposing hypotheses were proposed to explain the life course pattern in the effect of education on mortality: “cumulative advantage,” where the education effect becomes stronger with age, and “age-as-leveler,” where the effect becomes weaker in old age. Most empirical studies bring evidence for the latter hypothesis, but the observed convergence of mortality patterns could be an artifact of selective mortality due to unobserved heterogeneity. A simulation shows that unobserved heterogeneity can bias the estimated effect of education downward so that the cohort-average effect of education decreases in old age regardless of the shape of the underlying subject-specific trajectory.     

Addictive Substances,Users’ Health,and the Government’s Perceived Responsibility: French People’s Perspective

This paper uses a semiparametric latent variable transformation model for multiple outcomes to examine the effect of education and maternal education on female multidimensional well-being and proposes a procedure to build a well-being index that is less susceptible to functional form misspecification. We model multidimensional well-being as an unobserved common factor underlying the observed well-being outcomes. The semiparametric methodology allows us to alleviate misspecification bias by combining multiple indicators into a latent construct in an unspecified, data-driven way. Using data from female participants of the 1974–2010 waves of the US General Social Survey, we find that education, intelligence, and maternal education contribute positively to multidimensional well-being. However, the effects of education and maternal education on female multidimensional well-being declined steadily between the mid-1970s and the 1990s, and have not rebounded since.     

Unequal transitions: Selection bias and the compensatory effect of social background in educational careers

Previous studies have shown that social background inequality differs among educational transitions and it is stronger for those transitions that involve a higher risk of social demotion. This paper focuses on two processes that may account for part of the observed differences in social background inequality across educational transitions. First, it studies how the family of origin might compensate for a ‘false step’ in the early stage of young people's educational careers. This compensatory effect of social background can be described as the likelihood of having ‘a second chance’ for unsuccessful educational transitions. Second, it focuses on two unobserved factors that might potentially bias the effect of social background across educational transitions. These are the students’ unobserved cognitive and non-cognitive skills and their unobserved anticipated choices of dropping out of the education system. Two issues – the compensatory effect of social background and selection bias in educational transitions – are addressed by estimating a probit model with sample selection for the transition to post-compulsory education in Spain.     

Dealing with selection bias in educational transition models: The bivariate probit selection model

This paper proposes the bivariate probit selection model (BPSM) as an alternative to the traditional Mare model for analyzing educational transitions. The BPSM accounts for selection on unobserved variables by allowing for unobserved variables which affect the probability of making educational transitions to be correlated across transitions. We use simulated and real data to illustrate how the BPSM improves on the traditional Mare model in terms of correcting for selection bias and providing credible estimates of the effect of family background on educational success. We conclude that models which account for selection on unobserved variables and high-quality data are both required in order to estimate credible educational transition models.     

Internal consistency of demographic assumptions in the shared socioeconomic pathways

A new set of alternative socioeconomic scenarios for climate change researches—the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs)—includes for the first time a more comprehensive set of demographic conditions on population, urbanization, and education as the central scenario elements, along with other aspects of society, in order to facilitate better analyses of challenges to climate change mitigation and adaptation. However, it also raises a new question about the internal consistency of assumptions on different demographic and economic trends under each SSP. This paper examines whether the interactions between the demographic and economic factors implied by the assumptions in the SSP projections are consistent with the research literature, and whether they are consistently represented in the projection results. Our analysis shows that the interactions implied by the demographic assumptions in the SSPs are generally consistent with findings from the literature, and the majority of the assumed relationships are also evident in the projected trends. It also reveals some inconsistency issues, resulting mainly from the use of inconsistent definitions of regions and limitations in our understanding of future changes in the patterns of interactions at different stages of socioeconomic development. Finally, we offer recommendations on how to improve demographic assumptions in the extended SSPs, and how to use the projections of SSP central elements in climate change research.     

Structural Change in Life Cycle Fertility During the Fertility Transition: France Before and After the Revolution of 1789

This paper explores the hypothesis that the fertility transition in France entailed a structural change in behaviour from natural to controlled fertility. We define the hypothesis in terms of an empirically estimable model of lifetime fertility. The model produces separate estimates of the three main proximate determinants: the hazard rate of conception for ovulating women, the timing of ovulation resumption after a birth, and permanent sterility. Fertility control is defined as responsiveness of the conception hazard to number of surviving children. We demonstrate key features of the model by simulated family histories. The historical application provides support for the transition hypothesis in the south of France, and mixed results for the north. We also find strong evidence of persistent couple-specific heterogeneity even after controlling for unobserved heterogeneity in fecundability. We suggest how future research might improve the model.     

The effects of job displacement on job quality: Findings from the Wisconsin Longitudinal Study

This study examines the extent to which job displacement divides the career experiences for a cohort of workers. Previous studies of job displacement find nontrivial economic losses for displaced workers, but the effects of displacement on “non-economic” properties of jobs have been largely overlooked. Results using the Wisconsin Longitudinal Study indicate that workers who were displaced have lower levels of occupational status, job authority, and employer-offered pension and health insurance than they would have had had they not been displaced. Difference-in-differences estimates, which control for temporally-invariant unobserved heterogeneity, are generally larger than cross-sectional estimates; still, there is a close correspondence of estimates across a range of methodological approaches attesting to the robustness of the estimates in the face of various technical assumptions and model specifications. Effects of displacement on job quality also exhibit conditioning by gender, education, occupation, and industry: while less educated, blue collar and manufacturing workers experience significant losses for employer-offered benefits, more educated, upper white collar and non-manufacturing workers experience significant losses for occupational status, job autonomy, and job authority.     

A non‐linear model of fecundability,postpartum amenorrhea,and sterility*

This paper proposes a convolution model of fecundability, controling for the effects of postpartum amenorrhea and unobserved heterogeneity in fecundability. Simulation analysis was used to assess the validity and reliability of estimates derived from the model. Analysis showed that the model captured the mean and standard deviation of age at the onset of sterility in simulated populations where sterility followed either a Gompertz, a gamma, or a lognormal distribution. The model performed well when sterility was specified by either a lognormal or a gamma distribution. The model also accurately estimated fecundability and postpartum amenorrhea. Next, the model was found to fit data from 17th and 18th century French Canadian birth histories. In this French Canadian sample the mean age at sterility was found to be 46.3 years using a gamma model. The decline in fecundability was almost linear after age 30. Thus, fecundability at age 40 had declined to about one‐third of that observed at age 30. Variability in individual fecundability was quite high. For example, women with fecundability one standard deviation above the mean had about 2.3 times as high fecundability as women one standard deviation below the mean.     

Age-Specific Death Rates With Tobacco Smoking and Occupational Activity: Sensitivity to Sample Length,Functional Form,and Unobserved Frailty

In this article, we estimate accelerated time-to-failure and proportional-hazard functions with about 100,000 members of the Dorn sample, finding greater hazards associated with smoking and some dependence on occupational variables that measure risk and physical activity. We answer three questions: (1) How sensitive are the estimates to sample length, using monthly data for the periods 1954–1969 and 1954–1980? The results differ somewhat between these sample periods. (2) How sensitive are the estimates to alternative functions for the hazard? Within a given time period, the estimates are fairly robust to specification changes in the distribution of the hazard in the accelerated time-to-failure models. (3) How sensitive are the estimates to alternative controls for unobserved frailty? Within a given sample period, the estimates are fairly robust to the allowance for parametric or nonparametric heterogeneity in the proportional-hazard models.     

When Does Time Matter? Maternal Employment,Children’s Time With Parents,and Child Development

This study tests the two assumptions underlying popularly held notions that maternal employment negatively affects children because it reduces time spent with parents: (1) that maternal employment reduces children’s time with parents, and (2) that time with parents affects child outcomes. We analyze children’s time-diary data from the Child Development Supplement of the Panel Study of Income Dynamics and use child fixed-effects and IV estimations to account for unobserved heterogeneity. We find that working mothers trade quantity of time for better “quality” of time. On average, maternal work has no effect on time in activities that positively influence children’s development, but it reduces time in types of activities that may be detrimental to children’s development. Stratification by mothers’ education reveals that although all children, regardless of mother’s education, benefit from spending educational and structured time with their mothers, mothers who are high school graduates have the greatest difficulty balancing work and childcare. We find some evidence that fathers compensate for maternal employment by increasing types of activities that can foster child development as well as types of activities that may be detrimental. Overall, we find that the effects of maternal employment are ambiguous because (1) employment does not necessarily reduce children’s time with parents, and (2) not all types of parental time benefit child development.     

Methods for combining ancillary data in stochastic compartment models of cancer mortality: Generalization of heterogeneity models∗

In analyzing mortality data there may be available information from survey and other sources that describe the marginal distribution of risk factors. We present a mortality model where nationally representative survey data on risk factor distributions are combined with data on cohort mortality rates to increase information, i.e., a fixed marginal risk factor distribution is combined with a cohort model representing unobserved individual risk heterogeneity. The model is applied to lung cancer mortality in nine U.S. white male cohorts aged 30 to 70 in 1950 and followed 38 years. Estimates of the cohort specific proportions of smokers were made from the National Health Interview Survey. Comparisons are made for models with different patterns of changes with age of individual heterogeneity.     

Raising charitable children: the effects of verbal socialization and role-modeling on children’s giving

This paper uses nationally-representative data from the PSID and CDS to estimate the causal effects of two parent socialization actions—talking to children about giving and role-modeling—on children’s decisions whether or not to give to charity. We develop an identification framework based on the intra-household allocation and cultural transmission literatures that shows how different assumptions about parental response to time-varying unobserved changes in children’s prosocial values can be combined with the child fixed effects estimate and the difference between siblings’ over-time-differences estimate to infer a bound on the causal effect of parental action to socialize their children. Under the identifying assumption we think is most reasonable for socializing the willingness to give to charity, that parents treat the socialization actions of others as cultural substitutes, our estimates imply that talking to children about giving raises the probability of children’s giving by at least .13. We find no evidence that parental role-modeling affects children’s giving, except among non-African-American girls. The identification framework and substantive results have implications for those with a general interest in using data from naturalistic settings to estimate causal effects of parental socialization actions, those interested in the external validity of laboratory findings, and those interested in the socialization of warm glow.     

The Effect of Same-Sex Marriage Laws on Different-Sex Marriage: Evidence From the Netherlands

It has long been argued that the legalization of same-sex marriage would have a negative impact on marriage. In this article, I examine how different-sex marriage in the Netherlands was affected by the enactment of two laws: a 1998 law that provided all couples with an institution almost identical to marriage (a “registered partnership”) and a 2001 law that legalized same-sex marriage for the first time in the world. I first construct a synthetic control for the Netherlands using OECD data for the period 1988–2005 and find that neither law had significant effects on either the overall or different-sex marriage rate. I next construct a unique individual-level data set covering the period 1995–2005 by combining the Dutch Labor Force Survey and official municipal records. The estimates from a discrete-time hazard model with unobserved heterogeneity for the first-marriage decision confirm the findings in the aggregate analysis. The effects of the two laws are heterogeneous, with presumably more-liberal individuals (as defined by their residence or ethnicity) marrying less after passage of both laws and potentially more-conservative individuals marrying more after passage of each law.