我国证券市场真的存在“功能锁定”吗？——基于契约角度的新解释

结合配股权契约对我国证券市场"功能锁定"现象进行了研究.实证结果表明,1997～1998年我国证券市场不存在"功能锁定"现象;1999～2000年市场对非经常性损益的定价高于营业利润,表现为"功能锁定"现象,但可以通过配股权契约与盈利持续性予以解释;2001年配股政策的变革,降低了非经常性损益在取得配股权过程中起的作用,市场对非经常性损益的定价回复正常,"功能锁定"现象消失.结论显示,在我国特有的转型制度背景下,配股权契约对股票定价有影响作用.某些年份盈余定价表现的"偏离",是基于经济制度背景的理性行为,而非基于心理行为的非理性现象.     

上市公司非经常性损益盈余管理的实证研究

本文以2003年A股上市公司为研究样本,寻找微利、亏损和扭亏公司通过非经常性损益进行盈余管理的证据。研究结果表明,微利公司和扭亏公司主要通过非经常性损益调增利润;而亏损公司则通过非经常性损益进一步调减利润。其中,处置长期资产收益、补贴收入以及减值准备的计提或转回是非经常性损益盈余管理的主要手段。本文同时提出了遏制上市公司利用非经常性损益进行盈余管理的防范措施,并为最新的资产减值会计准则提供了证据支持。     

非经常性损益对股价影响的实证研究

伴随着中国证券市场的快速发展,非经常性损益成为净利润的重要组成部分,成为影响股价的一个很重要的因素.本文对我国A股市场2006-2009年的样本数据进行了分类处理,分为盈利公司和亏损公司,并对两者的混合样本、盈利公司样本和亏损公司样本分别进行了关于非经常性损益对股价影响的实证研究.这种方法与过去大多数研究者所采用的只对总体样本进行分析的方法有所不同.研究结果表明:(1)无论是盈利公司还是亏损公司,每股非经常性损益与股价的关系不显著;(2)盈利公司每股收益(扣除非经常性损益)与股价显著相关,但在亏损公司中此特点不显著;(3)时盈利公司而言,每股收益(扣除非经常性损益)与股价的相关性比非经常性损益更具有价值相关性;对亏损公司而言,每股非经常性损益比经常性损益更具有价值相关性.     

资产减值准备与非经常性损益披露管制——来自中国上市公司的经验证据

本文从证监会2001年颁发并于2004年以及2007年修订的《公开发行证券的公司信息披露规范问答第1号——非经常性损益》中有关资产减值准备转回的披露规则管制入手,以2003～2006年间深沪两地发行A股的上市公司为样本,研究了管制规则约束下的企业资产减值准备转回行为的特征。实证检验的结果表明,证监会的增加披露规则的确约束了上市公司利用内部估值操纵盈余的行为,但是,在规避和迎合管制的动机下,上市公司偏好采用流动资产项目,并利用资产减值的其他转回"合规地"进行盈余管理。此外,本文利用扩展的2001～2007年样本进一步探究了非经常性损益披露规则的变迁对企业资产减值准备变化的影响,结果发现,管制规则是导致资产减值类型和转回结构选择的主要原因。     

中国ETF期权Delta对冲收益的日夜特征研究

期权市场是现代金融市场的重要组成部分,研究期权市场Delta对冲收益的日夜特征,对于理解期权市场运行机制以及降低金融市场风险具有重要意义.本文使用我国2015年—2021年股票ETF期权数据,研究了期权Delta对冲收益的日夜特征.研究结果表明,总体上Delta对冲的隔夜收益为负、日内收益不显著;认购期权和认沽期权的Delta对冲收益具有非对称性,即认购期权日内为负、隔夜为正,而认沽期权恰好相反.即使替换为基于波动率和标的资产价格关系的对冲模型,非对称性异象仍然存在.这些发现不同于美国期权市场的Delta对冲收益日内为正、隔夜为负的特征.本文进一步探讨了可能的成因：从风险溢价看,波动率风险溢价可以解释总体上负的隔夜对冲收益,但是不能解释Delta对冲收益的非对称性;从模型误差看,模型误差与标的资产收益共同作用影响了Delta对冲收益;从交易制度看,T+1交易制度约束造成了标的资产日夜收益反转,进而导致了对冲收益的非对称性,并且T+1交易制度约束越强,对冲收益的非对称性越明显.本文将丰富我国期权市场Delta对冲效率、交易制度对金融市场影响的相关研究,有利于提高投资者的风险管理水平、增进监管者对市场行为的理解,从而推动中国多层次资本市场的高质量发展.     

非经常性损益盈余管理的动机、手段和作用研究——来自中国上市公司的经验证据

本文研究了我国上市公司利用非经常性损益进行盈余管理的行为,发现无论是亏损公司还是盈利公司的盈余管理相当倚重于非经常性损益。利用非经常性损益进行盈余管理动机各异:亏损公司主要是为了实现扭亏和避免亏损等,高盈利公司则是为了平滑利润和避免利润下降。实证结果还表明,非经常性损益确实对上市公司扭亏乃至后续年度是否继续亏损起到了重要作用,且其作用远大于扣除非经常性损益后的操控性应计利润。基于上述研究结果,建议将非经常性损益作为会计核算的一项独立内容纳入利润表,并进行具体、透明的表外披露;同时,也建议在监管政策实施中全面考虑非经常性损益的影响。     

新企业会计准则下利润表的变化及分析

本文主要从新准则下利润表的理念变化、计量变化、列报变化以及营业利润、利润总额、净利润内涵变化等四个方面进行阐述。提出在分析新企业会计准则下的利润表时,要在经常性收益与非经常性收益、已确认已实现收益与已确认未实现收益、计入损益的利得和损失与计入所有者权益的利得和损失等三个方面加以关注。     

关于非经常性损益相关问题的探讨

无论是上市公司还是国有大型企业集团的业绩形象都会被"非经常性损益"所影响。非经常性损益的概念应该如何界定?非经常性损益应如何判断?本文在案例分析的基础上引出"非经常性损益"对净利润的影响,清晰阐述"非经常性损益"概念的基础上,分析在财务对标过程中应关注的非经常性损益项目,对对标的指标选择提出建议,并给予国资委考核指标相关建议以保持各种考核口径的一致性。     

我国上市公司CFO薪酬与盈余质量的相关性研究

本文研究了我国上市公司CFO薪酬与盈余质量的相关性.研究发现,随着我国上市公司治理机制的不断完善,上市公司逐步建立起了以盈余为业绩指标的CFO薪酬激励机制.通过文章逐层递进的研究,我们发现我国上市公司CFO薪酬激励契约显著地区别反映了盈余中的非经常性损益和经常性损益,但是却未能有效地区别反映经常性损益中的应计项目和经营性现金流,存在类似"功能锁定"的现象.进一步细分研究样本后,我们发现由于盈余管理上市公司CFO薪酬激励契约对非经常性损益和经常性损益的不合理权重赋值,扭亏上市公司的CFO薪酬激励契约反而刺激了CFO进行盈余管理.根据研究我们认为,解决CFO薪酬激励契约对应计项目和经营性现金流的"功能锁定"现象,改进盈余管理上市公司CFO薪酬激励契约成为目前我国上市公司完善CFO薪酬激励机制的两个重要任务.     

如何正确解读上市公司的净资产收益率

一、认真分析净资产收益率的构成,挤干利润水分按照证监会《公开发行证券的公司信息披露编报规则第九号―净资产收益率和每股收益的计算及披露》的要求,上市公司年末要编制利润表附表,以反映净资产收益率的构成情况,以冀东水泥股份有限公司(000401)2003年末利润表附表为例,主要包括以下项目(见表格1):冀东水泥股份有限公司(000401)2003年末利润表附表报告期利润净资产收益率%全面摊薄加权平均2003年2002年2003年2002年主营业务利润27.6423.928.3723.38营业利润7.487.647.677.47净利润8.566.738.796.58扣除非经常性损益后的净利润8.626.788.8…     

市场层面上的赌资效应研究

赌资效应(House Money Effect)是指前期收益会使投资者变得更加风险寻求。与以往基于心理学实验或投资者个人交易账户数据所进行的实证研究不同,本文以股票市场整体行为为研究对象,采用世界上具有代表性的十四支股票综合指数为样本,构建TVRA-GARCH-M模型来研究在市场层面上前期损益对当期风险态度的影响。实证研究发现,在股票市场整体行为上,前期收益会降低当期的风险规避程度;同时,前期损失会提高当期的风险规避程度。     

Die systematische Entstehung von versicherungsmathematischen Gewinnen und Verlusten bei der Bewertung von Pensionsverpflichtungen

The accounting for pension obligations is based upon numerous parameters, whose future developments must be forecasted for valuation purposes. If the actual realizations of theses parameters deviate from their original estimations there are generated so-called actuarial gains and losses. IAS 19 provides three alternative accounting treatments with respect to these actuarial gains and losses. In particular the equity and the corridor approach, both frequently used in practice, implicitly assume that the actuarial gains and losses offset each other in the long run. However different studies have demonstrated by using the Monte-Carlo-Simulation-technique that this long-term offset is not assured. But those studies do not propose a rationale for the observed generation of systematic actuarial gains and losses. The present paper provides an analytic rationale for the systematic appearance of actuarial gains and losses and comes to the following conclusion: The long-term offset of actuarial gains and losses is assured only if the parameters that must be estimated for valuation purposes are independent. However if there is an interdependence between those parameters, which seems to be a sound assumption in reality, the offset of actuarial gains and losses is not given. In case of a positive correlation actuarial losses are generated on a systematic basis, whereas a negative correlation results in actuarial gains.     

Hedonism versus accuracy: the influence of motivation and affect on the evaluation of multiple gains and losses

The perceived value of multiple gains and losses may be influenced by a perceiver’s goals or affective state. In this research, insights from prospect theory were combined with the heuristic-systematic model to shed light on the information-processing strategies that underlie motivated and affect-related preference formation in the context of valuating multiple gains and losses. Specifically, findings from two experiments examine the influence of motivation and affect on preferences for segregated versus integrated gains and losses. In the first experiment—consistent with hypotheses—accuracy motivation was found to induce systematic processing for gains. The mixed results in the loss condition are explained with the influence of negative affect. Overall, the evidence supports the notion that people’s value functions might be more flexible than predicted by prospect theory, depending on people’s current goals. The second experiment substantiates these findings, identifying the influence of negative versus positive affect on the valuation of gains and losses. The results suggest that mood-management determines information processing and preferences depending on the congruence of the valence of affect (e.g. negative such as sadness) and the valence event (e.g. a positive event such as a gain). From a managerial perspective these studies add to practical knowledge on price communication, bundling, surcharges, or sequences of payments. When setting prices, salaries or other compensation schemes managers should consider whether their target group tends to be more accuracy or more feeling motivated.     

考虑决策者损失规避的异质信息多属性变权决策方法

现实中存在大量异质信息（或数据）和需要考虑权重随属性值变化的多属性决策问题。针对这类异质信息多属性决策问题，本文提出了一种基于前景理论的变权综合求解方法。首先，构建了异质信息的统一距离计算公式，进而计算各个决策方案的相对贴近度；然后，提出基于不同类型效用函数的变权向量构造方法；其次，以初始权重为参考点，计算变权向量相对于参考点的益损决策矩阵，进而计算考虑决策者权重损失和收益的风险态度的各个决策方案的前景综合值，据此确定方案优劣排序和最优方案。通过数值例子的计算分析说明，文中所提决策模型与方法具有较好的有效性和合理性，可为解决复杂情景的决策问题提供理论依据与方法支持。     

My Loss Is Your Loss … Sometimes: Loss Aversion and the Effect of Motivational Biases

Findings from previous studies of individual decision-making behavior predict that losses will loom larger than gains. It is less clear, however, if this loss aversion applies to the way in which individuals attribute value to the gains and losses of others, or if it is robust across a broad spectrum of policy and management decision contexts. Consistent with previous work, the results from a series of experiments reported here revealed that subjects exhibited loss aversion when evaluating their own financial gains and losses. The presence of loss aversion was also confirmed for the way in which individuals attribute value to the financial gains and losses of others. However, similar evaluations within social and environmental contexts did not exhibit loss aversion. In addition, research subjects expected that individuals who were unknown to them would significantly undervalue the subjects' own losses across all contexts. The implications of these findings for risk-based policy and management are many. Specifically, they warrant caution when relying upon loss aversion to explain or predict the reaction of affected individuals to risk-based decisions that involve moral or protected values. The findings also suggest that motivational biases may lead decisionmakers to assume that their attitudes and beliefs are common among those affected by a decision, while those affected may expect unfamiliar others to be unable to identify and act in accordance with shared values.     

基于临期回收和响应供给策略的易逝性应急物资库存决策研究

基于降低由于需求时间和需求数量的不确定性会引致较高的过期损失和缺货损失,将临期回收策略和响应供给策略引入易逝性应急物资库存系统,同时考虑应急系统中需求时间不确定性的这一突出特性,建立临期回收策略和应急供给策略的随机规划模型,决策临期回收策略和响应供给策略下的最佳存储水平,并分析各策略带来的风险降低和价值增加。回收策略和应急供给策略并不都是有利的,存在着降低风险和增加价值的有利条件域;库存决策需要权衡风险的降低与价值的增加,给定一个判断标准;需求时间和需求数量的不同随机分布对策略的价值增加作用有不同的影响,且分布的不确定性程度对价值增加的影响不具有一致性和单调性。     

基于顾客惰性行为的无理由退货策略研究

通过对加入了顾客惰性因素的无理由退货策略建立数学模型,发现当惰性顾客存在时,商家的最优销售价格为只考虑理性顾客时的标准价格与惰性损失之差;最优退货价格为产品的清货价格与边际惰性效用贡献率之和;与只考虑理性顾客的无理由退货策略相比,惰性在一定程度上会对销量产生负影响,但在相同环境下却能为商家带来更多的利润.     

Die Entscheidung über den Verkauf von Wertpapieren unter der Abgeltungssteuer und auf Basis subjektiver Erwartungen

Since January 1, 2009 realized capital gains on securities are taxable in Germany regardless of the investor’s holding period. This paper examines when a rational investor should optimally sell a security in the presence of capital gains taxes. Besides taxes, our analysis considers the relevance of investor’s subjective expectations about future market prices of the security. The results suggest that investors should base divestment decisions primarily on their expectations. To realize losses or to avoid the realization of taxable gains (i.e. the lock-in-effect) is of minor importance for the optimal divestment strategy. This result becomes even more pronounced when transaction costs and limitations to save taxes by realizing losses are considered. Numerical calculations illustrate the results of our analysis.     

TWO-PIECE VON NEUMANN-MORGENSTERN UTILITY FUNCTIONS*

Thirty empirically assessed utility functions on changes in wealth or return on investment were examined for general features and susceptability to fits by linear, power, and exponential functions. Separate fits were made to below-target data and above-target data. The usual “target” was the no-change point. The majority of below-target functions were risk seeking; the majority of above-target functions were risk averse; and the most common composite shape was convex-concave, or risk seeking in losses and risk averse in gains. The least common composite was concave-concave. Below-target utility was generally steeper than above-target utility with a median below-to-above slope ratio of about 4.8. The power and exponential fits were substantially better than the linear fits. Power functions gave the best fits in the majority of convex below-target and concave above-target cases, and exponential functions gave the best fits in the majority of concave below-target and convex above-target cases. Several implications of these results for decision making under risk are mentioned.