人口政策与人力资源开发

人口政策是宏观调控人口数量和质量的政策 ,是对国家未来发展具有决定性影响的战略政策。一个国家的人口政策如何 ,将会极大地影响这个国家的人口发展 ,影响人力资源的发展方向和发展趋势 ,进而影响到国家未来社会经济的发展和国家的综合国力。我国的人口政策 ,在促使人力资源数量与社会经济发展相适应 ,提高人力资源的身体素质和科学文化素质 ,促进人力资源的合理利用方面 ,发挥了巨大的作用 ,产生了巨大的经济效益和社会效益     

Population policy and individual choice

The general equilibrium implications of endogenous fertility for several social issues of population policy are examined. Laissez faire is found to lead to Pareto optimality within generations even in the presence of public goods and Malthusian diminishing returns. On the other hand, bequests emerge as a major potential source of Pareto inefficiency when parents care about the number and welfare of their offspring. Also considered are questions of intergenerational justice and equity using an intergenerational social welfare function. It is shown that maximizing the sum of utilities always leads to a larger population than maximizing per capita utility, but that the laissez-faire solution may lie outside the interval bounded by the two criteria.Invited Lecture at the First Annual Conference of the European Society for Population Economics, Rotterdam, 18–19 September 1987In preparing this paper, I have drawn heavily on joint work with Assaf Razin and Efraim Sadka, both of Tel-Aviv University, and on our book, Household and economy: Welfare economics of endogeneous fertility (Academic Press, New York 1987). I am indebted to two anonymous referees for helpful comments     

Population dynamics and monetary policy

This paper shows that in a general equilibrium model with interest-rate feedback rules of the Taylor-type population dynamics give rise to multiple steady states. Under an active monetary policy, real determinacy occurs only around the steady state with zero net financial wealth, where aggregate consumption is equally distributed among agents of different generations. By contrast, in a neighborhood of the steady state displaying a positive stock of financial wealth and intergenerational inequality, real determinacy requires monetary policy to be passive. Changes in the demographic profile of the economy are shown to have relevant implications for the aggregate accumulation of wealth.

Population policy in India

The financial allocations made for the family planning program in India since the early 1950s suggest that a very high priority is attached to population control policy. At the current rate of exchange, the public sector investment will have been over 5.3 billion U.S. dollars by the end of the Seventh Five Year Plan, 1985–1990. It is claimed that over 85 million births have been averted over the last three decades. The number of couples currently protected by the various contraceptive methods, as of March, 1987, is estimated to be 55 million, or 41.4% of the 132.6 million eligible couples with wives 15–44 years-old.The long-term goal of the national population policy is to attain replacement level fertility (approximately 2.3 children) per couple by the turn of the century, implying a crude birth rate of 21 and a death rate of 9 per 1,000 persons. In view of very slow progress in the reduction of the crude birth rate, particularly in the Hindi-speaking populous states of Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, and Haryana, the target for the country as a whole is most likely to be reached by 2010–2015 A.D.The observed stalled decline in the crude birth rate between 1975 and 1984 at the national level is analyzed in terms of changing age-sex composition, marital status, set-back to the family planning efforts, and other factors.The long-term projections indicate a national population of 996 million by the year 2,000 A.D., and 1,336 million in the year 2030 A.D. Further, for the very long run, a stationary population of 1.7 billion is hypothesized for India in the middle of the 22nd century.The data analyzed in this paper was collected in 1986 at the Delhi School of Economics through the courtesy of the Shastri Indo-Canadian Institute, Calgary/New Delhi. Appreciation is expressed to both institutions and to Drs. P.P. Talwar, M.K. Premi, K.B. Pathak, and Dr. Ashish Bose. Please direct correspondence to Dr. Chaudhry, Department of Political and Economic Science, Royal Military College of Canada, Kingston, Ontario, Canada K7K 5L0.     

Population policy in Mainland China

Population policy in Communist China has little demographic significance. It is of interest mainly for what it reveals about the nature of the administrative and decision making process in Peking. Although the evidence is often ambiguous, six fairly distinct phases of population policy can be distinguished, during which policy shifted from categoric denial of population problems to an endorsement of birth control and back to the denial of population problems. There are indications that the birth control campaign was first activated in response to fears of overpopulation, that it was abandoned during the “ leap forward ” in 1958 because the Chinese Communist leaders actually believed their economic expedients had achieved miraculous success, and that the recent absence of explicit policy reflects both a disillusionment with the “ leap forward ” and reluctance to resume openly the birth control campaign. Apparently, Peking is at present waiting hopefully for good news from the agricultural front before undertaking another major policy revision; if this hope is disappointed, the consequences may have great international significance.     

Population policy in Western Europe

Abstract Policies concerning procreation and fertility are considered first. In Western Europe there are countries which fully recognize and implement the personal rights of the individual to plan and space the number of children, as well as others denying these rights. The nature and implications of laws and policies concerning contraception, abortion and family planning in general are briefly described and their effects discussed. The second topic considered the welfare and the economy of the family. The incidence of family allowance schemes, taxation systems, protection of working mothers, educational facilities (especially for children of pre-school age), and publicly financed housing is reviewed in an effort to understand whether the various social and legislative systems favour procreation and the raising of the children. The situation is contradictory: very mild pro-natalist effects of family allowances are partly offset by a taxation system that im unfavourable to the family, since husbands' and wives' incomes are in many instances assessed jointly. Increasing protection of working women may reconcile economic activity with childbearing, but serious shortage of institutions to care for very young children makes employment of mothers difficult. The third topic is mobility, internal and international. Possibly the most serious demographic problems of Western Europe are the strong internal streams of migrants, congestion of cities and depopulation of rural areas. Measures for coping with these problems are generally in adequate. At the same time, international migration in very strong with many millions of foreign workers in various countries. The countries of immigration, although themselves tending towards almost stationary populations, seem not to accept the implications of this fact - particularly the cessation of growth of the domestic labour force. Temporary import of manpower through temporary immigration is a short-term solution which cannot be sustained indefinitely. The paper concludes with a final consideration. Western European countries could probably lower their levels of fertility rather easily by giving more support to family planning programmes, liberalizing abortion, etc. But should fertility consistently and for a long time fall below replacement, where are the measures for stimulating recovery? Address delivered before the Population Association of America, New Orleans, 26 April 1973.     

Population policy: Personal notes

Abstract These are the population years: throughout the world, in both developing and developed countries, there has been a growing debate on population policy. In this paper population policy refers to governmental actions that are designed to alter population events, or that do alter them. The concern with policy seems to center in the relationships between four demographic variables (size, rates, distribution, composition) and four 'quality of life' categories as both determinants and consequences (comprehended here as economic, political, ecological/environmental, social). As to policy means, they can be seen as being five in number (information, voluntary programmes, change in social institutions, incentives and disincentives, and coercion) with the potential of affecting the three factors of fertility, mortality, and migration. The relationships and effects of these conceptual cross tabulations are illustrated.     

Population trends and population policy in Ceylon

The population of Ceylon has many. features in common with other Asian countries. Ceylon has, however, the distinction of an unusual wealth of demographic data. The study of many problems of general interest to Asia may thus be made for Ceylon, and the conclusions in part extended to other Asian countries.     

Population policy: Authoritarianism versus cooperation

The people whose interests are most adversely affected by frequent bearing and rearing of children are young women. Social changes that expand the decisional power of young women (such as expansion of female literacy, or enhancement of female employment opportunity) can, thus, be major forces in the direction of reducing fertility rates. This “cooperative” route seems to act more securely – and often much faster – than the use of “coercion” in reducing family size and birth rates. This essay examines the comparative evidence from India and China on this subject as well as the interregional contrasts within India. JEL classification: J11, J13, O15 Received August 20, 1996/Accepted November 14, 1996     

Population growth,environmental awareness,and policy direction

Many policy analysts, commentators, and researchers claim that the issue of human population growth no longer receives the attention and concern it once enjoyed in both the popular and specialized media. Other commentators state that scientists and decision-makers are held captive by media-savvy environmentalists who seek to fulfill a political agenda by limiting population expansion. I investigated the change in media coverage of population issues by tallying the number of population-related articles listed during 1967–1989 in 3 periodical index services. Media coverage has declined sharply since the early 1970's. Possible causes of the decline are discussed in the context of the larger debate between population pessimists and population optimists.     

Population size,military power,and Antinatal policy

A causal model. relating population size, economic development, military power and antinatal population policy is tested using data from 83 developing nations. The statistical findings are interpreted as supporting two hypotheses: (1) population size is a major determinant of military power; and (2) military power is a minor determinant of anti-natal population policy.     

Population,projections, and policy: A cautionary perspective

Population projections depend on censuses, vital statistics and sample surveys, all of which have deficiencies that are most marked in the less developed countries (LDCs). Long-range projections by international agencies have recently undergone major revisions, while forecasts of the U.S. population have changed drastically over the past four years. The United Nations typically prepares “high,” “medium” and “low” projections. Even the high projection contains optimistic assumptions about fertility decline, while assumptions of constant or increasing fertility receive no serious attention. The paper suggests that high and constant fertility projections should receive more attention from policy makers, with medium estimates treated more as targets achievable only through considerable programmatic effort. At the same time, economic and social plans should be laid for dealing with the population sizes implied by the “high” variants.     

Population redistribution policy in Korea: A review

With its rapid industrial transformation over the last two decades, Korea has experienced a massive population shift from rural to urban areas. In particular, population concentration together with the concentration of economic and political power in the primate city of Seoul created spatial imbalances and a host of urban problems which are not uncommon to many developing nations. In response to these persisting imbalances and problems, the government of Korea has implemented various programs and measures since 1970. Korea's experiment with population redistribution, although it may not be easily replicated in other countries, provides a rare example with which we can examine some of the major issues involved in population distribution policies. The paper reviews Korean policies and programs for population redistribution, assesses their effects in redressing the three major spatial imbalances - between urban and rural, between regions, and between cities of different sizes - and draws lessons for policy formation in Korea as well as in other countries which are considering such a policy.     

人口老龄化：进程模拟和政策机制分析

以人口老龄化系数分析为主线,对相关统计数据从生育率、死亡率、老龄化系数、跨期队列人口四个方面进行模拟分析,推算出中国人口老龄化进程在1976年开始出现;计划生育政策是老龄化进程加速的关键因素,并导致我国步入老龄化国家行列的时间提前了12年;面对老龄化和高龄化浪潮,应当实行由国家主导、社会与家庭广泛参与的多元化的老龄化应对举措。     

人口流动与人力资源开发

本文首先论证了优先开发我国具有优势的人力资源具有重大意义,并且人口流动是人力资源开发的一条重要途径.进一步论述了我国由于多种因素尤其是一系列行政制度等人为因素导致的人口仍然缺乏流动性,阻碍了我国人力资源的开发.文章最后提出了活跃我国人口流动、促进人力资源开发的对应措施.     

Revolution,war and modernization: Population policy and fertility change in Iran

Fertility trends in Iran over recent decades can be plausibly related to a number of causal factors. Population policy shifts were quite marked, and were related to political upheaval and war, which influenced both official policy and popular perceptions of the nation’s need for children. A range of developmental factors were also important. The key fertility trends to be explained include the rise to an exceptionally high level in the early 1980s (a TFR of just below 7), and the speed of the subsequent decline to a TFR of about 2.7 in 1996. As well as estimating the proximate determinants of these trends, the paper sets them in their political and developmental context. Iran’s fertility trends are then compared with those of Islamic countries of North Africa and West Asia to gain additional insights into possible causal factors. An adequate explanation of fertility change in Iran needs to draw on elements of a number of theories of fertility transition.     

Population science serves human happiness]

4 areas are covered in this speech delivered on January 10, 1983. 1) Looking back on China's post-Liberation population problems: as early as the 1950s, the Party and scholars such as Ma Yinchu recognized the need to control population growth. For instance, a 1952 directive instructed the Public Health Bureau to encourage the use of condoms and diaphrams. When Ma Yinchu's studies showing alarming population increases were made known to Mao Zedong and published in the People's Daily in 1957, the "new population theory" was formed, which advocated population control. But before this idea gained currency, Ma suffered criticism in 1958 and population studies was virtually halted. Between 1958-61, as China entered difficult times, the birthrate declined. By 1962 the rate increased, leading the Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party to issue a directive to control population. Again in 1971 the Central Government set population goals and incorporated population policies into national economic planning. When the wrongs of the Cultural Revolution were redressed, Ma Yinchu regained favor and demography entered a new era. 2) The responsibility of demographic studies: one of the most important tasks of demography is to solve the problem of confining the birthrate to 16-17/1000 annually, so that by 2000 the total population would be 1,200,000,000. This can only be done by advocating 1 child per couple, closely con trolling a 2nd birth and discouraging all 3rd births. 3) The contents of demographic studies: both immediate and future problems must be addressed. Areas of study can include sex ratio, marriage, family, population and land distribution, fertility, or an aging society. 4) Science research must embody a scientific attitude: it is best to follow the example set by Ma Yinchu, whose work was based on actual investigations in the field. Any development and production of scientific theory must stem from practical experience.     

关于西部人才政策的几点思考

人才流动应符合经济规律。一个地区人才的数量和层次要适应该地区的经济总量和结构。西部开发对人才的需求以应用型为主,并以本地培养为主要途径。西部要特别重视少数民族各类人才的培养。     

生育政策调整对陕西省人口年龄结构的影响研究

为测定生育政策调整对陕西省人口年龄结构的影响,本文选择四种方案进行模拟分析。结果表明:2010—2080年间陕西省人口年龄结构将面临着劳动人口供给量大幅下降和老年抚养比快速增长两大难题;生育政策的调节方案均能在一定程度上缓解上述两大问题的问题;其中从现在起实行"父母中一方是独生子女的家庭可生育两个孩子"的调节效果最佳。