Automating Knowledge Acquisition and Refinement for Decision Support: A Connectionist Inductive Inference Model*

An important application of expert systems technology is to provide support for nonstructured decision making. Usually, nonstructured decision making is characterized by heavy reliance on heuristic knowledge, which is very difficult to articulate or document, and therefore traditional knowledge acquisition approaches are not very successful. The quality and effectiveness of an expert system supporting unstructured decision making is affected when traditional knowledge acquisition approaches are used. To alleviate this problem a model is proposed that combines inductive inference and neural network computing, and an example is presented that illustrates the potential of this model in unstructured decision support.     

A Knowledge Based Decision Support System for Setup Reduction

The issue of setup reduction is important for firms seeking to incorporate advanced procedures and concepts such as flexible manufacturing systems (FMS) and just-in-time (JIT) manufacturing to improve manufacturing productivity. Investing adequate amounts in setup reduction is a complex decision affected by many factors including the existing level of automation, worker characteristics, product features, and the manufacturing environment. The consequences of improper investment (i.e., over- and underinvestment) includes possible disruption of manufacturing operations as well as wasted resources. Much of the knowledge involved in the investment decision is heuristic and experience-based, and takes on greater significance when the form of the setup reduction function is not known a priori. This paper describes the development of a knowledge-based decision support system (KBDSS) that combines both heuristic and procedural knowledge to provide support for the setup reduction investment decision. The system uses codified manufacturing expertise to improve both the accuracy and effectiveness of setup-reduction decision making. Use of the KBDSS is illustrated by two examples based on disparate manufacturing contexts.     

A Computerized Approach to Decision Process Tracing for Decision Support System Design*

We propose the use of computerized process tracing (CPT) tools as an appropriate approach for monitoring the information acquisition and evaluation phase of specific decision processes. CPT tools are unobtrusive and seem particularly relevant for evaluating certain decision tasks that may be supported by decision support systems (DSS). CPT tools can be an important component of DSS development. An information systems research taxonomy developed by previous researchers [29] [36] is used to position research work involving the methodology of CPT. Using a critique suggested by Libby [28], CPT tools are evaluated and compared to alternative process tracing tools. A brief empirical example using CPT is provided, and future uses relative to DSS are suggested. The appendix includes an example of a specific CPT tool.     

A Decision Support System for Production/ Distribution Planning in Continuous Manufacturing

This paper presents a decision support system (DSS) for managing production/distribution planning in a continuous manufacturing environment. The vendor has multiple plants and distribution centers (DCs). The trading partners have widely varying independent demand patterns. The DSS is designed for use in a multiproduct environment with overlapping raw materials and processing requirements. The production and distribution lead times at plants may span multiple planning periods. The impact of any manual override of a suggested solution can also be evaluated. The DSS is based on a linear programming model with a rolling horizon and was originally designed for a large process industry. Results of a pilot implementation using actual data are also presented, which show potential for significant savings for the company.     

Strategic Assessment Model (SAM): A Multiple Criteria Decision Support System for Evaluation of Strategic Alternatives*

The evaluation of strategic alternatives is a particularly difficult task. This difficulty is due to the complexities inherent in the evaluation process and the lack of structured information. The evaluation process must consider a multitude of relevant information from both the internal and external environments of the organization. Various analytical and normative models have helped decision makers utilize large volumes of information in strategic evaluation; however, most of these models have some limitations. We present a multiple criteria decision support system, called strategic assessment model (SAM), that addresses some of the limitations inherent in the existing models. SAM captures the decision maker's beliefs through a series of sequential, rational, and analytical processes. The environmental forces—decomposed into internal, task, general opportunities, and threats—are used along with the analytic hierarchy process (AHP), subjective probabilities, the entropy concept, and utility theory to enhance the decision maker's intuition in evaluating a set of strategic alternatives.     

Assigning Students to Groups: A Multi-Criteria Decision Support System Approach*

MCADSS is a multi-criteria allocation decision support system for assisting in the task of allocating students to groups. Based on multiple criteria, MCADSS's goal is to maximize the diversity of members within groups, while minimizing the average differences between groups. The project may be viewed from several perspectives: as a multi-criteria decision-making problem, as a “reverse'’clustering problem, or as a personnel assignment problem. The system is currently being used to allocate M.B.A. students into sections and study teams at The European Institute of Business Administration (INSEAD). This paper describes the rationale for MCADSS, design criteria, system methodology, and application results. It also suggests how this approach could be used for further applications.     

Linking IT Applications with Manufacturing Strategy: An Intelligent Decision Support System Approach

Research has indicated the importance of matching Information Technology (IT) applications or manufacturing systems with the competitive strategy of a company. Selection of the right type of IT application is, however, a challenging task. When a company with a given dominant process structure emphasizes two or more competitive priorities, such as quality, product flexibility, etc., an unaided manager faces a complex decision problem in choosing from alternative IT applications available in the areas of product design through distribution. In this paper, we develop an Intelligent Decision Support System (IDSS) to assist managers with assessment of the relative importance of competitive priorities in their organization, evaluation of the fit between the competitive priorities and their dominant process structure, and identification of the IT applications that are consistent with both the competitive priorities and the process structure. The IDSS is comprised of an interactive user interface, a knowledge database, a decision model, and a Knowledge-Based System (KBS) that was developed using the 1st Class KBS shell. Validation of the system illustrates that its performance is as good as the human expert, and it has the potential to facilitate effective and swift decision making in the selection of appropriate IT applications that best match an organization's manufacturing strategy. The choice and use of the right type of IT application should provide a company with a competitive edge.     

Decision Support by Interval SMART/SWING—Incorporating Imprecision in the SMART and SWING Methods

Interval judgments are a way of handling preferential and informational imprecision in multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA). In this article, we study the use of intervals in the simple multiattribute rating technique (SMART) and SWING weighting methods. We generalize the methods by allowing the reference attribute to be any attribute, not just the most or the least important one, and by allowing the decision maker to reply with intervals to the weight ratio questions to account for his/her judgmental imprecision. We also study the practical and procedural implications of using imprecision intervals in these methods. These include, for example, how to select the reference attribute to identify as many dominated alternatives as possible. Based on the results of a simulation study, we suggest guidelines for how to carry out the weighting process in practice. Computer support can be used to make the process visual and interactive. We describe the WINPRE software for interval SMART/SWING, preference assessment by imprecise ratio statements (PAIRS), and preference programming. The use of interval SMART/SWING is illustrated by a job selection example.     

User Perceptions of Decision Support Effectiveness: Two Production Planning Experiments*

Decision support systems continue to be very popular in business, despite mixed research evidence as to their effectiveness. We hypothesize that what-if analysis, a prominent feature of most decision support systems, creates an “illusion of control” causing users to overestimate its effectiveness. Two experiments involving a production planning task are reported which examine decision makers' perceptions of the effectiveness of what-if analysis relative to the alternatives of unaided decision making, and quantitative decision rules. Experiment 1 found that almost all subjects believed what-if analysis was superior to unaided decision making, although using what-if analysis had no significant effect on performance. Experiment 2 found that decision makers were indifferent between what-if analysis and a quantitative decision rule which, if used, would have led to significant cost savings. Thus, what-if analysis did create an illusion of control: decision makers perceived performance differences where none existed, and did not detect large differences when they were present. In both experiments, decision makers exhibited difficulty realizing that their positive beliefs about what-if analysis were exaggerated. Such misjudgments could lead people to continue using what-if analysis even when it is not beneficial and to avoid potentially superior decision support technologies.     

A New Approach to the Group Ranking Problem: Finding Consensus Ordered Segments from Users’ Preference Data

The group ranking problem involves constructing coherent aggregated results from users’ preference data. The goal of most group ranking problems is to generate an ordered list of all items that represents the user consensus. There are, however, two weaknesses to this approach. First, a complete list of ranked items is always output even when there is no consensus or only a slight consensus. Second, due to similarity of performance, in many practical situations, it is very difficult to differentiate whether one item is really better than another within a set. These weaknesses have motivated us to apply the clustering concept to the group ranking problem, to output an ordered list of segments containing a set of similarly preferred items, called consensus ordered segments. The advantages of our approach are that (i) the list of segments is based on the users’ consensuses, (ii) the items with similar preferences are grouped together in the same segment, and (iii) the relationships between items can be easily seen. An algorithm is developed to construct the consensus of the ordered segments from the users’ total ranking data. Finally, the experimental results indicate that the proposed method is computationally efficient, and can effectively identify consensus ordered segments.     

An Application of the AXIS Solution Framework to Multiple Objective Aggregate Production Planning

This paper provides data on the first application of a prototype of the AXIS solution framework. AXIS (algorithms combined with knowledge systems in an interactive sequence) is a framework for interactively combining structured algorithms that seek a best solution with knowledge-based expert systems that seek expert heuristic solutions. This paper tests the framework using an interactive multiple objective integer programming algorithm combined with heuristics taken from the domain of aggregate production planning. The results indicate the AXIS framework can be successful in generating high quality solutions, in vastly reduced solution times compared to the structured algorithms, at much lower costs compared to the expert heuristics working alone.     

Animation in User Interfaces Designed for Decision Support Systems: The Effects of Image Abstraction,Transition, and Interactivity on Decision Quality*

This paper develops the idea of animation in user interfaces designed for decision support systems (DSS), proposes a framework to investigate the efficacy of animation in these interfaces, and reports on a study that examined the effects of properties of animation specified by the framework. Based on a review of selected background literature, principal properties affecting the efficacy of animation in user interfaces designed for DSS are identified and the effects on decision quality of three of these properties are hypothesized. To evaluate these hypotheses, data was collected in a laboratory experiment involving two different tasks. The results for both tasks indicate that animation in user interfaces designed for DSS should employ parallel as opposed to sequential navigation interactivity techniques. The decision quality of subjects that used a parallel navigation technique was significantly greater than that of those that used a sequential navigation interactivity technique. The results regarding the efficacy of image abstraction and transition effects varied by task. For one task, decision quality was significantly greater for subjects that used realistic as opposed to abstract images, but decision quality did not vary by transition effect. For the other task, decision quality was significantly greater for subjects that used gradual as compared to abrupt transition, but image abstraction had no effect on decision quality.     

Toward Computerizing a Causal Modeling Approach to Strategic Problem Framing*

This paper proposes an object-oriented approach to the development of interactive software for the purpose of managerial problem solving. A prototype is being developed using CSM causal mapping to represent each manager's perceptions of the relationships between key variables of a firm's strategic situation. This paper suggests the design of GDSS that would enable a group of managers to discuss, learn from each other, and possibly develop consensus about decisions or their causes. Issues involving future development are discussed.     

The Design of a Knowledge-Based Decision Support System to Support the Information Analyst in Determining Requirements

Decision support system (DSS) researchers and designers continue to look for unstructured organizational tasks where there is a critical need for intelligent computer-based support. One such decision task is information requirements determination. Requirements determination is recognized as the most crucial phase of the systems development life cycle. Unfortunately, most methodologies and CASE tools focus only on how to specify the requirements once they are determined. There is very little computer support for the process of determining requirements. This paper discusses the conceptual design and development of a knowledge-based DSS to support information analysts in the critical decision task of determining requirements for the design of effective information systems. The expert modeling support system has the expertise to assist the analyst in studying the organization as a whole and in modeling the system under study in the context of the overall organization's goals and needs. The focus of the paper is on the problems associated with building the knowledge base component of the intelligent decision support system. A prototype implementation of the system is described.     

Contractor Accreditation: A Probabilistic Model

The selection of competent contractors is a critical function in all business organizations. In contrast to other types of vendors (e.g., distributors, manufacturers, etc.), contractors are typically accredited before any business transaction takes place. In such situations, there is often a considerable amount of uncertainty associated with the accreditation process. This research presents a probabilistic model for accrediting contractors. We discuss a methodology in which probability measures are used to capture the uncertainty inherent in the decision process. These probabilities are estimated from data on (i) past applicants and (ii) their eventual performance, if accredited. Furthermore, these probabilities are used to determine when additional information about an applicant should be collected, as well as what kind of information would be most relevant for the vendor under consideration.     

Decision Support System of Truck Routing and Refueling: A Dual‐Objective Approach

The variable‐route vehicle‐refueling problem (VRVRP) is a variant of the network‐flow problem which seeks, for a vehicle traveling from origin s to destination d, both the route and the refueling policy (sequence of fuel stations to use between s and d) that jointly minimize the fuel cost of operating the vehicle. Commercial‐grade decision support systems that solve the VRVRP are widely used by motor carriers, but they provide heuristic solutions only. Exact methods are available from the academic side, but because they focus on minimizing costs, they tend to cut fuel costs in exchange for increased vehicle miles (which can increase fuel consumptions and pollutants emission). We propose a new approach to the VRVRP that allows carriers to jointly seek the two possibly conflicting goals; minimizing fuel cost and vehicle miles. Computational testing shows that our approach (i) outperforms the commercial software products in both goals, and (ii) finds solutions that require significantly less vehicle miles than those given by the exact method proposed in the academic literature, without incurring unacceptable increases in fuel cost.     

What to Learn from Near Misses: An Inductive Learning Approach to Credit Risk Assessment

This paper presents a new dimension of inductive learning for credit risk analysis based on the specific impact of Type I and Type II credit errors on the accuracy of the learning process. A Dynamic Updating Process is proposed to refine the credit granting decision over time and therefore improve the accuracy of the learning process. The new dimension is tested on credit files of small Belgian businesses. Results indicate an improvement of the learning process in terms of predictive accuracy, stability, and conceptual validity of the final decision tree.     

Decision Making in an Automated Environment: The Effects of Anonymity and Proximity with a Group Decision Support System*

Recent advances in information systems technology have made it possible to support the work of interacting groups using networked personal computers. A laboratory experiment was conducted using a group decision support system to evaluate effects of anonymity and proximity on group process in automated group problem solving. Twenty groups of four persons each performed an idea-generating task using an interactive electronic brainstorming program. This experiment's main findings were: (1) Group members working anonymously and apart generated more comments. (2) Working in the same room increased satisfaction. (3) Highest levels of perceived system effectiveness were reported under anonymity.     

Decision Processes for Developing Strategic Applications of Information Systems: A Contingency Approach*

Strategic applications of information systems (IS) are considered by IS researchers to be determined by contextual factors such as environmental uncertainty, and influenced by attributes of the processes preceding them, such as planning and top management support. For better management of the process leading to these applications, it is essential to understand the relationship between process attributes and contextual factors. Utilizing a contingency approach, this article takes a step toward such an understanding. Based on successful strategic IS applications from 81 large companies, it examines the relationship between the context of these applications and the decision-making process leading to them. The results indicate that the external environment is related to whether a rational or political decision-making process is used. The IS function seems to influence the use of the decision process implied by IS researchers, one in which the top management champions the strategic application, while the IS managers contribute by conducting in-depth analysis. However, the organization structure was not related to any decision process attribute. The implications of these findings for future research and practice are also discussed.     

The Role of Knowledge in Resource Allocation to Exploration versus Exploitation in Technologically Oriented Organizations*

Decisions regarding research and development (R&D) activities of an organization greatly affect the fiscal and market outcomes of technologically oriented firms. Yet, the resource allocation choices between these two activities are tied strongly to an organization's technology knowledge. Technological knowledge is itself a resource that the firm can manage to achieve strategic and competitive advantage. In this paper, the authors present a system dynamics view of the decomposition of R&D efforts into explorative and exploitive activities and the resultant knowledge‐specific and performance outcomes from the decision to focus on one type of activity or another. Four factors are shown to affect the relative value of innovative knowledge to the organization: resource availability, exogenous competition, aging of knowledge bases, and adaptive capacity, a firm's ability to adapt to its environment. A variety of long‐ and short‐term strategic issues are discussed in relation to these forces.