The Impact of Long–term Visitor Migration on Projections of Australia's Population

In 1999 and 2000, net long–term visitor migration to Australia exceeded net permanent migration for the first time. A shift in Australia’s migration entry from permanent settlers to long–term visitors has many implications. This paper focuses on the longer–term demographic impacts of this change. In conventional projections of Australia’s population, particular levels of annual net overseas migration are assumed and there is an implicit assumption that these levels represent permanent migration. The question addressed in this paper is: if permanent residents and temporary residents of Australia are treated as two separate populations, does this change the outcomes of population projections? The paper uses a new projection model that divides the Australian population into these two components. Each population is projected separately with provision for movement from the visitor population to the permanent population. Visitors who do not convert to permanent residence are “tagged” with their expected year of departure and are taken out of the population in that year. They are also assumed to have a zero birth rate (because any births they have will leave with them). A conventional population projection based on 1999 levels of annual net overseas migration (88,000) results in an Australian population of around 25 million in 2050. In contrast, a “standard” projection, which is also based on 1999 migration levels, but considers permanent movements (50,000 net annually) and long–term visitor movements (125,000 annual arrivals) separately results in a population of 23 million by 2050. Other projections are carried out in which specified net migration targets are met through varying either the level of net permanent–resident migration, the level of long–term visitor arrivals, or the rate of conversion of long–term visitors to permanent residence. The central conclusion of the study is that dividing the Australian population into two parts, permanent residents and long–term visitors, and projecting them separately into the future makes a considerable difference to the results of population projections.     

Being “top-ranked” without “causing troubles”: Comparing federal and provincial immigration pathways for Chinese international students in Canada

Canada's immigration selection regime uses a combination of human capital measures and direct employer involvement to select economic immigrants, emphasizing pre-arranged employment as critical to secure permanent resident status. This trend affects international students in unique ways. We interviewed 17 Chinese women international students residing in Canada about their decision to study and desire to stay in Canada. Participants faced difficulties in accumulating adequate employment records for immigration applications and employer-driven immigration pathways put them at considerable risk of deskilling and exploitation. When comparing available immigration pathways, we found that participants had more success with provincial programmes than federal ones because of the availability of flexible pathways, greater options and lower requirements for eligibility. We conclude with three policy recommendations to highlight the importance of periodic revisions to selection criteria to balance human capital measures and employer reliance to retain talented foreign workers in Canada.     

Net Migration as a Target for Migration Policies: A Review and Appraisal of the UK Experience

The impact of migration on population growth has become a ubiquitous argument in UK immigration debates, leading to the introduction of immigration restrictions to reduce net migration and prevent the UK population from reaching 70 million. Taking the UK as a case study, this article assesses the rationale for setting a national net migration target as a pivotal point for migration policies and the feasibility of limiting net migration using immigration controls. A framework for analysing the effects of migration policies on net migration is proposed and applied to UK official migration data. The results show that, due to various policy constraints, competing objectives and unintended feedbacks, it is neither optimal nor entirely feasible to prioritize a reduction of net migration as a target for migration policies. Nevertheless, factoring net migration into the migration policy debate provides useful insights on the long‐term implications of migration policies in the context of broader demographic changes.     

A history of population movement between New Zealand and Australia

"Migration between New Zealand and Australia has assumed considerable significance for both countries during the past 25 years. Commencing in the late 1960s, three major waves of net immigration from New Zealand have seen Australia's New Zealand-born population increase from 52,000 at the 1966 Census to 212,000 at the 1986 Census.... This paper aims to set these contemporary trends in historical context. So strong has been the tide flowing towards Australia that it is easy to imagine, erroneously, that it always flowed that way." Movements since the early 1800s are examined. Aspects considered include major periods of net migration, gender balance, short-term and permanent movement, and size and composition of immigrant groups. The impact of changes in migration policies over time is analyzed. The author's name is incorrectly listed as George A. Carmichael on this article. (SUMMARY IN FRE AND SPA)     

Contemporary trends in international migration study

Recent trends in international migration are reviewed. Three major trends are identified: changes in the relationships between states due to the presence of a more or less permanent minority population from one state in the other; the flow of illegal migrants despite stricter immigration laws; and the growing problem of refugees and their impact on the migration policies of developed countries. The author reviews some theories concerning international migration and the role of institutions in the international division of labor. (SUMMARY IN FRE AND SPA)     

To stay or to return? Return migration intentions of Moroccans in Italy

Using data from the Statistics on Income and living conditions of families with migrants carried out by ISTAT in 2009, we empirically examine the effect of micro level determinants on Moroccans’ return migration intentions. Although Moroccans living in Italy do not have a clear aspiration to return, the socio‐economic and work conditions in Italy determine their migration intentions. Furthermore, our research led us to argue that macro‐level determinants should also be considered. In particular, emigration, immigration and integration policies represent key elements in the analysis of the dilemma between to stay or to return. Therefore, the promotion of long‐term immigration policies, which allow the achievement of a permanent residence in the host country, combined with institutional reforms, which make the origin country socially, economically and politically more attractive for migrants are essential to complete the debate about to stay or to return.     

Comparing European and North American international migration

International migration is a vast, complex, and heterogeneous field of study. It requires not only knowledge about dynamic processes in the past and at present and in various regions of the world, but also interdisciplinary cooperation, not least in order to achieve a good theoretical development. Theories about international migration tend to be built on particular periods or regions. The test of these theories comes through comparative research. A comparison of North American and European immigration and immigration policy could examine 1) whether immigration is permanent or temporary, 2) the desire of Europeans for short-term immigration to allow the integration of the large numbers of immigrants from the recent past, 3) the differential development of welfare states, 4) the likely long-term outcome of large waves of immigration, and 5) the legal status of aliens.     

Long-term immigration to the United States: new approaches to measurement

"The United Nations has recommended the measurement of types of international migration using demographic criteria, including length of stay and purpose of travel. Information systems at the U.S. Immigration and Naturalization Service (INS) have the potential to provide a basis for documenting these demographic characteristics, in particular, length of stay of temporary migrants to the United States. This article analyzes these characteristics of selected categories of nonimmigrant aliens. The results of the analysis are used to produce series of estimates of alien immigration that conform more closely to the U.N. recommended definitions and better represent demographic concepts of long-term immigration. A strategy for measuring emigration of aliens from the United States using INS information systems is also described."     

International migration: some consequences for urban areas in Australia and New Zealand

"This article provides a broad overview of literature on some of the consequences of international migration for urban and, in particular, metropolitan areas in Australia and New Zealand. The focus therefore is diverse; highlighting similarities in the experiences of each country...;and emphasizing long-term and permanent movements favoured by successive governments on both sides of the Tasman Sea.... The four sets of impacts discussed in this article relate to the population, labour force, residential and settlement patterns and social and cultural factors." (SUMMARY IN FRE AND SPA)     

The Impermanence of Permanence: The Rise of Probationary Immigration in Canada

This article engages with arguments that contemporary immigration politics is defined by a “loss of settlement” by examining recent developments in Canadian immigration and refugee policy that have made permanent residence less permanent. We suggest that the rise of probationary immigration has been facilitated by horizontal status stratification within groups that were historically marked by relative status equality. In order to examine this claim empirically in the Canadian context, we analyze the rise of temporary foreign worker recruitment, the move from “one-step” to “two-step” immigration, and changes to refugee policy that, for the first time, linked loss of refugee status to the loss of permanent resident status.     

Immigration in two federations: Canada and Australia

The need for increasingly widespread application of a policy or program, settlement, and multiculturalism is urgent in both Canada and Australia. For both countries there is a clear pattern of coalescence and divergence and the distinct growth of immigration as a federal function. While Australia has strengthened federal functions in a area of increasingly geo-political need, Canada is moving towards a looser model of federalism. By 1918 both countries were strengthening their federal functions in immigration as discussions within the British Empire on the recommendations of the 1917 Dominions Royal Commission took root. Both countries were interested in agricultural immigration and land settlement. The Great Depression caused a major reduction in population growth rates. From 1933-1948 Canada had a poor record of providing sanctuary for Jews. In Australia, however, Jewish voluntary agencies were aiding the reception of refugees by 1937. The 1st permanent embodiment of commonwealth jurisdiction over immigration was the establishment of an Immigration Branch within the Department of Interior around 1938. Australia needed extra population for defense. The major structural link between government and the immigrant communities was through the Good Neighbor Movement, which began on a nationwide basis in 1950. Both Canada and Australia are major receiving countries for refugees. In 1973 Australia reached the position of effective, practical nondiscrimination achieved by Canada in 1967. Prime Minister Trudeau's policy was multiculturalism within a framework of bilingualism. By 1978 Australia had a new federalism policy, which in all areas concerned with immigrants, refugees and ethnicity, rationalized resources allocation and imposed a political philosophy. The foci of multiculturalism in Australia are 1) community languages; 2) creation of a tolerant, non-discriminatory society; and 3) equity and participation. In 1978 Australia specified population replacement and increase as the major aim of immigration policy. In 1984 Australia showed a significant movement forward in understanding by many, but it confirmed a resistance to change on regional, gender, race, and age criteria with others. The fundamental problem for both countries will be to combine the core federal function in immigration, needed both for international and domestic politics, with an increasingly flexible response to regional factors.     

Migrants’ Intention to Move or Stay in their Initial Destination

The objective of this article is to find out why immigrants intend to stay in or leave their initial destination. The insight into such factors could help develop policy measures to deal with potential out‐migration, especially from the regions that view international migration as a solution to their demographic and economic difficulties. The study uses multinomial logistic regression to estimate the strength of association between migrants' intention to move and immigration category, human capital, economic and social factors. The data come from the Longitudinal Survey of Immigrants to Australia. The findings show that different groups of migrants have different propensities to move or stay in their initial destination. Employer‐sponsored migrants are even less likely to intend to relocate than family class. Highly educated and skilled migrants tend to be more likely to express the intention to move or have doubts. Satisfactory employment has a positive impact on retention.     

Flows of People and Knowledge between Italy and Australia

This article analyses 20 years of bilateral peoples' flows between Italy and Australia using a unique set of data collected by Australia's Department of Immigration and Citizenship. This period has witnessed substantial changes in the composition of migration between the two countries. Against a historical background where migration is mostly composed of unskilled Italians relocating to Australia, the past two decades have seen a progressive increase in the arrival of young and highly skilled/qualified Italians on a short‐term basis. Conversely, there has been an increase in older Australians moving to or visiting Italy for work. Such changes have affected the bilateral skill flows, whose relevance has increased as globalization forces have made international transport easier and cheaper. Australia remains a “magnet” for Italians, and, unlike the historical origin of Italy's early immigrants, it now enjoys a net inflow of highly skilled labour.     

Germany at the crossroads: national identity and the challenges of immigration

"In Germany the discussion [of immigration] is taking place between two extreme positions, one that denies Germany is de facto an immigration country...and one that compares Germany with traditional immigration societies like the United States, Canada, or Australia. As will be demonstrated, both arguments are too simplistic.... To illustrate the importance of migration movements for Germany's national fabric, first an overview of the history of pre- and postwar migrations and refugee movements as well as their effects on the domestic situation in Germany are presented. Next, the origins of the contradictory nature of the current asylum, citizenship and naturalization regulations and the need to redefine Germany's legal framework, immigration policy, and national identity after unification are discussed."     

Return migration from Australia: a case study

"The study investigates the departure from Australia of former settlers who arrived during the 1980 calendar year. The 1980 settler arrival cohort [consists] of 75,167 visaed migrants.... The study has three main aims: (i) to analyse departures from Australia of the 1980 settler arrival cohort with a view to gauging the success of Australia's immigration program in retaining settlers; (ii) to examine the retention rates of settlers with respect to characteristics...including age, sex, marital status, country of last residence, and settler eligibility category; and (iii) to consider implications of the findings." Australia's present immigration policy is discussed, previous research on return migration from Australia is summarized, and a detailed analysis of the departure data is presented. "This study found that by August 1984, 12.4 per cent of non-refugee settlers who arrived in Australia during 1980 had departed permanently but that only 0.6 per cent of the 1980 refugee cohort had done so." These figures represent a decline in immigrant departure rates since the 1960s and early 1970s. Small differences in departure rates by place of birth, age, and marital status, which may have demographic consequences if sustained over time, are noted. (SUMMARY IN FRE AND SPA)     

International migration and sustainable human development in eastern and southern Africa

International migration in eastern and southern Africa (ESA) is rarely addressed in population and development policies or regional organizations, and regional organizations must in the articulation of sustainable shared development identify the role of international migration. Poor quality data on international migration hampers analysis. Sustainable, shared, and human development within the region are subregional issues. Permanent migration is characterized among ESA countries as increasing demographic ethnic pluralism that may result in redrawing of territorial boundaries and further population movement. Portuguese and Arab settlement and integration in eastern areas resulted in coexistence, while European immigration to South Africa resulted in racial segregation. Modern colonial settlement and the aftermath of political conflict resulted in independent countries after the 1960s and outmigration of nonAfrican groups. Much of the labor migration in ESA is unskilled workers moving to South African mining regions. Labor migration to Zimbabwe and Zambia declined after the 1960s. The formation of the Common Market for ESA and the potential merger with the Preferential Trade Area and South African Development Community is a key approach to integration of migration into regional cooperation and shared development. Refugee movements create the most problems. Prior to 1992 ESA countries accounted for 83.4% of refugees, particularly in Mozambique, Ethiopia, and Somalia. Some countries blame poor economic performance on the deluge of refugees. Illegal migration is currently detected because of the required work permits, but the adoption of the Common Market would obscure this phenomenon. Human development is affected most by migrations related to drought, labor migration to strong economic areas, and return migration. The Inter-Governmental Authority on Drought and Development needs to become more active and establish better policies on nomadic and refugee movements and displaced populations. Movement of educated populations to countries lacking in trained and skilled human resources is a future challenge. Strategies of immigration should facilitate economic development.     

Best Practices to Reduce Migration Pressures

Are there best practices to foster economic development, reduce population growth, and protect the environment in source countries of unauthorized migration, in a manner that reduces emigration pressures and redirects migration towards legal channels? This paper outlines cooperative actions that can be undertaken by both source and receiving countries to better manage the movements of people over national borders. There are two broad approaches to foster wanted migration and to reduce unwanted migration. First, maximize migration’s payoffs by ensuring that the 3 Rs of recruitment, remittances, and returns foster economic and job growth in emigration areas. Second, make emigration unnecessary by adapting trade, investment and aid policies, and programmes that accelerate economic development and thus make it unnecessary for people to emigrate for jobs and wages. Most of the changes needed for stay–at–home development must occur in emigration areas, but immigration areas can cooperate in the management of immigration, guest workers, and students, as well as in promoting freer trade and investment, and in targeting aid funds. In a globalizing world, selective immigration policies may have important development impacts, as with immigration country policies toward students, and workers in particular occupations, such as nurses and computer programmers, as well as with mutual recognition of occupational licenses and professional credentials. Trade policies affecting migration are also important, such as trade in services and laws regulating contracts between firms in different countries that allow the entry of lower wage workers as part of the contract. opening channels for legal migration can deter irregular migration.     

Short-Term Skilled Labour Movements and Economic Growth

Economic models typically study the long-term effects of migration, and hence emphasise their impact on a country's endowment of skills using net migration rates. This approach however does not take into account the contribution of short-term movements of skilled labour on a country's stock of knowledge and ability to innovate. This paper develops a theoretical approach to extend the analysis to gross migration flows, which captures the volume of interactions and the potential for knowledge exchanges between a country's skilled labour and workers living elsewhere. One implication of the approach developed is that higher growth can be achieved through higher international labour mobility, even if there is no net migration. Countries that find it difficult or impossible to attract skilled labour on a permanent basis may therefore enjoy the growth effect brought by skilled temporary migrants.     

Military Brides and Refugees: Vietnamese American Wives and Shifting Links to the Military, 1980 – 2000

Since the immigration legislation of 1965, marriage to American citizens and resident aliens has been one of the primary paths for migration to the United States. Despite the rapid growth of the Asian American population over the course of the late twentieth century, Asian Americans had still reached only 3 per cent of all Americans by 2000, meaning that Asian marriage migration to the United States has been largely through marriage to non‐Asians. In this study, we look at exogamy among Vietnamese Americans using U. S. Census data (1980, 1990, and 2000) from 5 per cent PUMS sets made available through the IPUMS project. We ask: (1) What are the predictors of exogamy among Vietnamese Americans? (2) How do the rates of exogamy of Vietnamese American women compare to those of Vietnamese American men? (3) How have the predictors of exogamy and the apparent characteristics of the exogamously married changed over the decades of refugee movement from Vietnam to North America? We review data from the years 1980, 1990, and 2000. In the assimilationist view of immigration associated with the classic work of Milton M. Gordon, exogamy is the final stage of immigrant incorporation into a host country. Migration through marriage, which has become a major source of immigration to the United States since the Immigration Act of 1965, reverses this assimilationist pattern, placing marriage before immigration and incorporation, or at the earliest stages of immigration and incorporation. Our findings are relevant to understanding the specific Vietnamese experience in the United States. They highlight the continuing but declining importance of the Vietnam War in creating close connections between Vietnamese and other people in the United States, even after the war had ended. The findings also suggest how these connections changed as a result of Vietnamese mass migration to America.     

Population growth impacts of zero net international migration

"In a country such as the United States, the contribution of net international migration to overall population change overshadows the contribution of natural increase.... Some analysts have assumed that if the same number of people leave and enter the country each year, then the effect of net international migration will be zero. This article examines that assumption and shows that it is fallacious. Examining the direct, indirect, total, and negative demographic impacts of zero net international migration through simulations with demographic data, we demonstrate that zero net international migration is not the same and therefore does not have the same demographic results and implications as zero international migration. We conclude that zero net international migration should not be confused with zero international migration."