Multi-category purchase incidences with marketing cross effects

We focus on cross effects of marketing variables and cross category dependences for multi-category decisions which households take during a shopping trip to a retail store. A cross effect is defined as the effect which a marketing variable used for a certain product category exerts on purchases of another category. Using Dirichlet process mixture models with multivariate probit components we analyze purchase incidences of 24,047 shopping visits of a random sample of 1500 households. Independent variables of these models encompass marketing variables for 25 product categories and household attributes. We discuss differences between the two best performing models, a full model which includes both cross effects and cross category dependences, and a related restricted model which ignores cross effects. We obtain several high and significant differences with respect to category constants and cross category dependences between these two models. We also present explanations for the larger (in absolute terms) cross effects of features or displays. We demonstrate that by ignoring cross effects management runs the risk to obtain in many product categories too optimistic forecasts of sales revenue changes due to promotions. In contrast to previous related work suggesting not to use promotions which are not tailored to individual households in any of the investigated categories, we obtain support for such promotions in at least 48 % of the 25 product categories. In addition, based on the full model we demonstrate that often different categories are appropriate for promotions which are targeted at household clusters.     

Centralized versus Decentralized Competition for Price and Lead‐Time Sensitive Demand

We study two firms that compete on price and lead‐time decisions in a common market. We explore the impact of decentralizing these decisions, as made by the marketing and production departments, respectively, with either marketing or production as the leader. We compare scenarios in which none, one, or both of the firms are decentralized to see whether decentralization can be the equilibrium strategy. We find that under intense price competition, with intensity characterized by the underlying parameters of market demand, firms may suffer from a decentralized structure, particularly under high flexibility induced by high capacity, where revenue‐based sales incentives motivate sales/marketing to make aggressive price cuts that often erode profit margins. In contrast, under intense lead‐time competition, a decentralized strategy with marketing as the leader can not only result in significantly higher profits, but also be the equilibrium strategy. Moreover, decentralization may no longer lead to lower prices or longer lead‐times if the production department chooses capacity along with lead‐time.      

企业社会责任与企业价值:营销竞争力与顾客意识的作用机理

虽然企业社会责任与企业价值相关性的研究已有数十年,但至今仍未取得一致结论,更缺乏对影响两者关系的权变因素和中间变量的探讨。为了深入分析企业社会责任与企业价值的内在联系,研究以2013-2015年501家A股上市公司为样本,从企业竞争力视角出发,选择营销这一与企业价值密切相关的经营活动,首次将营销竞争力作为中介变量展开分析,同时检验了企业提高顾客意识对两者关系的调节作用,通过构建企业社会责任对企业价值作用机理的概念模型,并使用固定效应与随机效应模型来进行实证分析,研究结果证实:企业社会责任与企业价值正向相关,而营销竞争力在两者关系中发挥部分中介作用;顾客意识正向调节了CSR对企业价值的影响,但这种效应仅在广告强度代理顾客意识时体现。研究结论有助于企业积极履行社会责任,以实现顾客忠诚度与营销竞争力的提升,经济与社会共享价值的创造。     

A Two-Period Repeated Game Advertising Investment Model for Oligopolistic Markets with an Application to the Beer Industry*

This paper proposes a simple analytical model of advertising competition in oligopoly markets. The widely used log-log sales response function underlies the model specification. Advertising carryover effects are assumed to persist for one period following the period in which the expenditure occurs. Firms are assumed to be engaged in a repeated competitive game in which in every period advertising levels are set such that they maximize current and next period (i.e., two-period) profits. A Nash equilibrium solution is sought for the game. Compared with previous empirical studies of advertising competition in a game theoretic framework, the proposed model offers the following advantages: (1) oligopoly, not duopoly, markets are analyzed; (2) industry sales is allowed to vary over time as a function of advertising expenditures; (3) non-zero discount rates are used for the players. An empirical application is provided using data from the beer market on sales and advertising expenditures of Anheuser-Busch and Miller Brewing. Comparisons are provided with policies that ignore the dependence of next period profits on current advertising levels, reaction function strategies and spending levels obtained from a market share game. Extension of the model formulation to multiple marketing instruments is briefly discussed.     

Intra-firm Adoption Decisions:: Role of Inter-firm and Intra-firm Variables

The subject of this paper is intra-firm adoption decisions, a relatively unexplored research area in the marketing literature. We develop a conceptual model in which two sets of independent variables are hypothesized to influence the intra-firm adoption decisions, i.e. (1) variables known from the inter-firm diffusion literature, (2) variables specifically relevant for intra-firm analyses of innovation acceptance. Hypotheses are developed and tested in an application in the domain of finance: the intra-firm adoption decisions regarding the common European currency by the treasury, purchasing and sales departments of European companies. Data were obtained from treasury, purchasing and sales managers (441 respondents in total) from companies located in five different European countries. The results of logistic regression show that the proposed intra-firm variables are indeed important explanatory variables that should be included in intra-firm analyses. Moreover, for the inter-firm variables we found differences in the effects between departments, which demonstrates the very need for an intra-firm analysis.     

电子商务增值税地区间分享和清算

增值税按照生产地原则在地区间分享造成地区间税收竞争加剧,税收收入差距扩大等问题。电子商务零售迅速发展呈现地区间“销售极化消费均化”的特征,使得增值税收入主要集中在销售地区。使用国内某电子商务平台销售数据对跨地区销售的商品和服务产生的增值税在各地区的分布和规模进行测算发现:生产地原则下,增值税主要由少数销售集中的地区获得;而消费地原则下,各地区按照消费规模获得增值税。在制度优化方面,通过建立省际增值税清算机制,适当结合生产地原则和消费地原则分享跨地区销售产生的增值税,可以使电子商务增值税收入在地区间的分布更加合理,有助于区域均衡协调发展。     

A Maximum Entropy Joint Demand Estimation and Capacity Control Policy

We propose a tractable, data‐driven demand estimation procedure based on the use of maximum entropy (ME) distributions, and apply it to a stochastic capacity control problem motivated from airline revenue management. Specifically, we study the two fare class “Littlewood” problem in a setting where the firm has access to only potentially censored sales observations; this is also known as the repeated newsvendor problem. We propose a heuristic that iteratively fits an ME distribution to all observed sales data, and in each iteration selects a protection level based on the estimated distribution. When the underlying demand distribution is discrete, we show that the sequence of protection levels converges to the optimal one almost surely, and that the ME demand forecast converges to the true demand distribution for all values below the optimal protection level. That is, the proposed heuristic avoids the “spiral down” effect, making it attractive for problems of joint forecasting and revenue optimization problems in the presence of censored observations.     

In-Store Experimental Approach to Pricing and Consumer Behavior

This study assessed how, and to what extent, it is possible to use behavioral experimentation and relative sales analysis to study the effects of price on consumers' brand choices in the store environment. An in-store experiment was performed in four stores to investigate the effects of different prices of a target brand on consumers' relative buying behavior using an alternating treatment design with baseline. The intervention consisted of periodically reducing the target brand's price by 17–26%. Price reductions generally had none or minor effects. However, data for one store showed lower relative sales for the price reduction condition. These are surprising results and they underline the need to examine all of the marketing mix factors, not only price.     

Linking Perceived Quality and Customer Satisfaction to Store Traffic and Revenue Growth*

Effects of perceived merchandise and service quality, relative to competition, on retail store performance are investigated using store traffic and revenue growth as outcome variables. A model is proposed and tested using aggregate customer data and store performance outcomes from a group of stores owned by a national retail organization. Results suggest that both service and merchandise quality exert significant influence on store performance, measured by sales growth and customer growth, and their impact is mediated by customer satisfaction. Implications of the results and future research directions are discussed.     

ALLOCATE: A COMPUTER MODEL FOR SALES TERRITORY PLANNING

Recent years have witnessed a renewal of interest in the application of management science techniques to personal selling related problems. Some early applications are described in [2] [7]. Cloonan has employed simulation in examination of the salesman routing problem [3] [4]. Lodish, in CALLPLAN, has devised an interactive call planning system designed to assist sales management and/or salesmen in allocating sales call time more efficiently [6]. Armstrong has devised a system he labels SCHEDULE which estimates the value of calls on accounts [1]. Hess and Samuels have designed a computer based sales districting model which is an analogue of a legislative apportionment model [5]. The objective of this paper is to explore the nature of a call planning system entitled ALLOCATE. ALLOCATE was designed to be employed by upper sales management either as an input device for sales management decisions such as sales-territory-size, or as a vehicle for determining the effects of alternative call allocation strategies on territorial revenue over multiple time periods.     

基于再制造的多周期闭环营销投入及定价策略

针对再制造产品市场化艰难和缺少旧件来源的问题,结合"互联网+"战略提出了促进旧件回收与再制造零部件销售的闭环营销体系;闭环的营销投入可以同时发挥回收努力效应（增加单周期合格旧件回收量）和多周期广告效应（提升消费者对品牌的长期绿色认知度）,建立了多周期的闭环营销投入水平决策和产品差异定价模型并得到了最优决策;结合我国汽车零部件市场的现状,针对无闭环营销、初级闭环营销、闭环营销策略升级三种模式展开算例分析和对比。研究表明：闭环营销可以显著提高供应链总收益,营销策略的升级应考虑到回收努力效应和多周期广告效应的匹配,针对长生命周期的产品,闭环营销策略应经常调整。本研究结论有助于进一步完善再制造闭环供应链及营销理论基础。     

基于多智能体的城市群政府合作建模与仿真——嵌入并反馈于一个异构性社会网络

以社会网络视阈下的城市群政府合作过程中的多期进化博弈为例,通过概念模型、数学模型和计算机模型的完整建模过程,在微观主体互动层面建立一个考虑个体成本收益差异的非对称进化博弈系统(并同时考虑全体博弈互动和部分博弈互动的交互),在宏观社会结构层面建立一个实现节点之间连接概率定制化的异构性社会网络模型(且同时考虑全局信息交互和局部信息交互的更替),并通过多智能体系统(特别是交互意愿变量的引入)实现了微观互动(博弈行为)和宏观涌现(网络结构)之间的双向反馈和动态交互.在构建模拟系统的基础上,设计并运行了一系列的实验方案,对仿真模型及模拟结果进行信度检验,并结合多次模拟实验样本数据的统计分析,考察全局交互比例,局部连接概率等网络结构变量、合作收益、惩罚措施等博弈参数变量、以及决策个性等主体属性变量对城市群政府博弈形势与合作水平的动态影响,为促进城市群政府合作和区域一体化进程提供决策依据和政策参考,也是政治学与公共行政学科计算实验研究的一次创新尝试.     

Demand Growth in Services: A Discrete Choice Analysis of Customer Preferences and Online Selling

The selling of perishable services (e.g., hotel rooms, airline seats, and rental cars) online is increasingly popular with both retailers and consumers. Among the innovative approaches to online sales is opaque selling. First popularized by Priceline.com's name‐your‐own‐price model, opaque selling hides some attributes of the service (notably, brand and specific location) until after the purchase decision, in exchange for a discounted price. This means that a branded “product” is being sold as somewhat of a commodity, but the brand “name” is protected by the opaque model. The attraction of this model for retailers is that they are presumably able to increase their revenue stream, albeit at a lower rate, by selling rooms that otherwise would remain in inventory. In this article, we outline the development and analysis of an online choice survey to understand consumer preferences among three types of online distribution channels: regular full information sales channels, and opaque sales channels with or without consumer bidding. A Multinomial Logit model is employed to analyze the data and measure the consumer trade‐offs between price and other attributes of the product. We use the estimated model to calculate the incremental demand and revenue created by using an opaque channel simultaneously with regular full information channels. On balance, we find that correctly priced opaque channels can add to hotels revenue streams without undue cannibalization of regular room sales.     

电商平台扣点率影响下的双渠道供应链协调定价研究

电商平台通常对入驻企业征收技术服务费、推广费用和促销活动费用等,这部分费用占销售额的比例即电商平台扣点率成为影响入驻企业定价的重要因素。有鉴于此,本文研究了电商平台扣点率影响下的双渠道供应链协调定价问题。首先构建了追求供应链整体利润最大化的集中式定价模型,得出最优线上、线下渠道销售价格,分析了扣点率影响下的价格、销量与利润变化,逐步确定了扣点率的决策范围。然后以分散式决策下企业最优利润为基准设计基于Shapley值的协调定价方案以确定最优线下渠道批发价格,给出了协调后的最优定价,最后使用Mathematica 11软件进行了数值分析与仿真。这一研究对解释电商平台扣点率影响下的双渠道供应链协调定价机制与相关指标的变化,实现企业和电商平台的良性互动具有重要意义。     

Location still matters! How does geographic configuration influence the performance-enhancing advantages of FDI spillovers?

Although many studies on FDI spillovers either implicitly or explicitly consider the firm as a single-location entity, most countries are dominated by multi-location business groups that consist of several affiliates. Business groups and their affiliates operate in different subnational regions and vary in their responsibilities (i.e., research and development, manufacturing, and marketing & sales) as well as in their ability to coordinate internally and minimize spatial transaction costs. We argue that such variations in turn affect the ability of business groups to benefit from intra- and inter-regional FDI spillovers. We advance prior research by examining how the effects of FDI spillovers on the performance of indigenous business groups in China are influenced by 1) the location and the geographic dispersion of their portfolios of affiliates and 2) the responsibility of each affiliate. Our analysis shows that the geographic dispersion of business groups has a profound effect on how much they benefit from FDI spillovers. It also shows that business groups are particularly effective in exploiting FDI spillovers through affiliates with marketing & sales responsibilities, while affiliates with other responsibilities are not effective in doing so.     

A Mobile Platform's In‐App Advertising Contract Under Agency Pricing for App Sales

Unlike advertising in traditional media, a mobile platform's in‐app advertising market exhibits two unique features—split structure of the mobile platform with a platform owner and an app developer jointly provisioning in‐app advertising, and agency pricing for app sales. We develop a two‐sided market model to analyze the role of these two unique features in determining the platform owner's optimal advertising revenue‐sharing contract. Our results reveal an interesting N‐shaped dynamic regarding the platform owner's optimal choice of her ad revenue share with respect to the overall advertisers’ valuation of in‐app ads. We identify a between‐agent subsidization strategy for the platform owner, where she finds it optimal to subsidize the developer via the advertising channel, leading to greater profits for both of them. We find that the advertising revenue‐sharing contract under agency pricing for app sales leads to a higher app price than would be offered by the integrated platform found in traditional advertising. However, the ad price is coordinated under the platform owner's optimal choice of ad revenue share when she obtains revenue from both the advertising and app sales channels, leading to an alignment of her interest with the app developer's on ad level.     

可读性和吸引性对商品销量的影响——基于电影简介的文本分析

商品简介为企业提供着向消费者传递商品信息，并激起消费者购买欲的重要作用。但是鲜有研究对商品简介文本的营销效果进行分析。为了弥补上述研究缺陷，本文基于营销实践的特征和相关文献梳理，并采用机器学习的方式度量了中国大陆2018年上映264部电影简介文本的可读性和吸引性水平，并检验其对首周票房和总票房的影响。研究发现，简介文本的可读性和吸引性对首周票房和总票房有差异化的影响，可读性对于首周票房的影响较大，而吸引性对总票房的影响较大。此外，明星的存在削弱了文本可读性和吸引性对票房的影响；而且，在高电影评分组中，可读性和吸引性对首周票房及总票房的负向交互作用显著。本文基于启发式-系统式模型凝练出商品简介文本的可读性和吸引性两个特征并研究其对票房的影响，对丰富中国电影研究，指导中国电影营销实践具有重要参考价值。     

Self-Efficacy Beliefs and Sales Performance

Self-efficacy theory predicts that people will perform better when they believe they have the skills necessary for success. It also suggests, however, that believing in long-term rewards for success ("response-outcome expectations") does not correlate with adequate performance. This paper supports the generality of self-efficacy theory and provides evidence that self-efficacy beliefs predict insurance sales performance, whereas response-outcome expectations did not. A questionnaire was developed to measure self-efficacy beliefs and response-outcome expectations using 200 insurance sales representatives. Regression analyses were computed on a different sample of 97 insurance sales representatives using four separate dependent variables (calls-per-week; number of policies sold; sales revenue and a composite performance index on which actual sales commission was based). (1) These analyses established a correlation (but no causal relationship) between self-efficacy beliefs and sales performance. (2) The generality of self-efficacy theory in a business setting is suggested by the relationship between self-efficacy and objective measures of sales performance. (3) The relevance of these results, and the importance of integrating them into the practice of organizational behavior modification is discussed.     

Survival during a Crisis: Alliances by Singapore Firms

In this study, we focus on the under‐researched issue of how environmental shocks impact alliance survival. We draw from several different theoretical perspectives such as industrial organization economics, managerial theories of the firm (such as agency theory) and institutional theories. We argue that the relationship between the occurrence of environmental shock and alliance survival is a contingent one. Specifically, we hypothesize that the following types of alliances will exhibit better likelihood of survival: alliances that yield a balance of short‐term and long‐term benefits (scale alliances) rather than purely long‐term benefits (link alliances); alliances that lead to either cost reduction or near‐term improvement in revenue realization (marketing alliances); and alliances that bring together partners from different economic regions (those involving Western and Asian partners). Based on an analysis of 348 alliances formed by Singapore firms, we find that marketing alliances and those involving at least one Western partner indeed exhibit a better likelihood of survival during the Asian economic crisis. We conclude that alliances that can enhance revenue potential in the short‐term are more robust to environmental shocks and that alliances can benefit from an effect similar to risk reduction through international diversification.     

The newsvendor problem with advertising: an overview with extensions

The effect of advertising on sales has been the subject of recent studies as an important aspect in many demand-based problems. Herein, we deal with the newsvendor problem, due to its simple structure, as a suitable tool for illustrating how facets of marketing may affect decision-making concerning operational problems. In the setting presented, the newsvendor is faced with advertising-sensitive stochastic demand, where a demand-related random element comprises an advertising decision of the multiplicative or additive form. We assume that a suitable advertising strategy results in increased sales. Two advertising response functions are considered, these being concave downward and S-shaped. We review and extend the existing results relating to the newsvendor problem with marketing effects, which mostly pertain to the concave function. These are generalized by defining the S-shaped function, and some original insights into the effect of advertising are given. We establish that the optimal advertising expenditure for the multiplicative case is always less than or equal to the optimal amount in the equivalent deterministic model while it is always equal in the additive case. We finally illustrate the results that are obtained by providing numerical examples involving various advertising response functions, as well as management-related interpretations.