International migration: a global challenge

Trends in international migration are presented in this multiregional analysis. Seven of the world's wealthiest countries have about 33% of the world's migrant population, but under 16% of the total world population. Population growth in these countries is substantially affected by the migrant population. The migration challenge is external and internal. The external challenge is to balance the need for foreign labor and the commitment to human rights for those migrants seeking economic opportunity and political freedom. The internal challenge is to assure the social adjustment of immigrants and their children and to integrate them into society as citizens and future leaders. Why people cross national borders and how migration flows are likely to evolve over the next decades are explained. This report also presents some ways that countries can manage migration or reduce the pressures which force people to migrate. It is recommended that receiving nations control immigration by accelerating global economic growth and reducing wars and human rights violations. This report examines the impact of immigration on international trade, aid, and direct intervention policies. Although migration is one of the most important international economic issues, it is not coordinated by an international group. The European experience indicates that it is not easy to secure international cooperation on issues that affect national sovereignty. It is suggested that countries desiring control of their borders should remember that most people never cross national borders to live or work in another country, that 50% of the world's migrants move among developing countries, and that countries can shift from being emigration to immigration countries. The author suggests that sustained reductions in migration pressure are a better alternative than the "quick fixes" that may invite the very much feared mass and unpredictable movements.     

Population aging and PAYG pensions in the OLG model

This paper shows the effects on a pay-as-you-go pension system of the demographic change in the standard overlapping generations model. Firstly, we consider a setting with exogenous fertility and then a model with endogenous fertility. In both cases, population aging due to increased longevity implies a reduction in pensions payouts.     

Fertility and PAYG pensions in the overlapping generations model

This article analyses how long-run pay-as-you-go public pensions react to a change in fertility in the Diamond overlapping generations model. While it might seem well established both in academic and political debates that the decline in fertility represents a “demographic time bomb” for the sustainability of public pensions, it is shown that a falling birth rate need not necessarily cause the fall of pensions in the long run.     

Immigrant migration dynamics model for The Netherlands

In this paper, we analyze the demographic factors that influence the migration dynamics of recent immigrants to The Netherlands. We show how we can allow for both permanent and temporary migrants. Results disclose differences among migrants by migration motive and by country of origin and lend support to our analytical framework. Combining both models, for departure and returning to The Netherlands, yields a framework for predicting the migration dynamics over the life-cycle. From the obtained insight in the dynamic composition of migrants in the country, important policy implications can be derived.     

The challenge of world health

2 development specialists have expounded on the demands world health has placed on public health. Striking declines in infant and child mortality occurred with the advent of biomedical and technical interventions in developing countries after World War II. At the same time, these interventions promoted longer lives by curing and/or treating chronic diseases in developed countries. In the 1970s, however, it was apparent that the hospital based, curative approach could not meet health needs and was very costly. In developed countries, biomedical and social sciences showed that chronic diseases did not occur due to modernization but from unhealthy behaviors, diet, and lifestyle. In fact, in 1975, the US Centers for Disease Control announced that unhealthy lifestyles contributed to 50% of all deaths while the medical system was responsible for only 11%. The US and other developed countries then began to promote healthy lifestyles, and in the 1980s, considerable improvements in health occurred, especially among adults. Developing countries which depended on the Western medical model did not experience health gains in the 1970s. Yet developing countries where health systems concentrated on carrying essential services to all people and promoted basic hygiene and sound dietary practices continued to achieve considerable health gains. In 1978, WHO an UNICEF hosted the International Conference on Primary Health Care in Alma Ata, the Soviet Union to hold these developing countries with community based health systems as models of primary health care (PHC). The 1980s witnessed the spread of PHC especially in the form of child survival which focused on oral rehydration therapy and breast feeding. The biomedical and social sciences are needed to move this health policy and program strategy forward. Governments must see to policies that promote healthy people. Political will is needed to make human welfare a high priority.     

The struggle over migration policy

We analyze the endogenous determination of migration quota, viewing it as an outcome of a two-stage political struggle between two interest groups: those in favor and those against the proposed migration quota. First, we compare the proposed policies of the two interest groups under random behavior of the government, with and without lobbying. We examine the effect of the status quo and government intervention in the proposal of the quota on its nature, assuming that, with and without government intervention, the uncertain approval of the proposal is the outcome of a lobbying contest between the two interest groups.

The effect of polytechnic reform on migration

This paper examines the effect of the polytechnic reform on geographical mobility. A polytechnic, higher education reform took place in Finland in the 1990s. It gradually transformed former vocational colleges into polytechnics and also brought higher education to regions that did not have a university before. This expansion of higher education provides exogenous variation in the regional supply of higher education. The reform raised the mobility of high school graduates across local labour markets in the years after they had completed their secondary studies, which indicated increased mobility between high school and post-secondary education. We estimate that the reform enhanced the annual migration rate of high school graduates by 1.2 percentage points over a 3-year follow-up period. This represents a substantial increase, because their baseline migration rate is 3.7 %. The effect fades several years after the completion of secondary studies.     

A temporary equilibrium model for international migration

This paper is concerned with the existence of temporary equilibria of migration with an overlapping generation structure and analyzes some of its properties. In the first part of the paper sufficient conditions for the existence of a temporary equilibrium of migration (in a given period) are given. In the second part some interesting properties of migration equilibria are analyzed. In particular the effects of differing degrees of information of the individuals on migration equilibria are investigated. Furthermore, it is shown that incomplete information alone suffices to induce migration flows even between countries that can be regarded as identical from an economic point of view.The paper was partly written during a research stay at the Sonderforschungsbereich 178 (University of Konstanz). Financial support of the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft is gratefully acknowledged. We wish to thank an anonymous referee for helpful comments.     

The importance of education-occupation matching in migration decisions

In this article, we present and test a model that incorporates education-occupation matching into the migration decision. The literature on education-occupation matching shows that earnings are affected by how individuals' education matches that required by their occupation. Accordingly, individuals with more schooling than required by their occupation have an additional incentive to migrate: the increase in earnings that occurs with a more beneficial education-occupation match. Using data from Mexico, we found statistical support for the importance of education-occupation matching in migration decisions. Education-occupation matching provides a plausible explanation for the mixed findings in the literature on the relationship between educational attainment and migration.     

Cohort migration

Most migration analyses focus on net migration and are concerned with areal redistributions of population. Migration may also be studied as an event in the life-cycle of an individual, and migration rates may be defined as properties of cohorts. A number of efforts to examine migration as a cohort process has been hampered by the character of available data [or the United States. Rather than await the development of a registration system-either directly or via social security and tax records-the collection of residence histories is suggested as the most feasible approach to obtaining suitable data. A schematic representation of residence histories clarifies their relation to other types of migration data and illustrates the need to design such surveys with specific research purposes in mind. Exploratory work with the 1958 Residence History Supplement to the Current Population Survey (by Beale, Shryock, myself, and various colleagues) demonstrates the utility of this approach.Local studies have made fruitful use of residence histories but typically are unable to delineate birth cohorts or other appropriate base populations exposed to risk. Development of cohort migration techniques analogous to the life table approach to mortality or cohort Jertility analysis requires national data. But migration, unlike Jertility and mortality, involves events that are reversible and repeatable. Hence the demographer's stock of analytic tools requires expansion. To the sociologist-demographer, experimentation with cohort migration models seems to be getting at one of the crucial methodological problems of sociology, the analysis of social mobility. A mutually profitable interchange with students of social mobility is envisaged.     

The stable population model,migration, and complementarity

The issue of declining population in many more-developed countries (MDCs) and continued rapid population growth in most less-developed countries (LDCs) is addressed in this paper. The authors expand the stable model theory beyond closed populations and apply it to situations where migration patterns are either in or out of a region. Through the use of the complementarity concept, the study illustrates what the impact of continued migration out of LDCs into MDCs would be on both regions.     

Engendering migrant networks: The case of Mexican migration

This article compares the impact of family migrant and destination-specific networks on international and internal migration. We find that migrant networks are more important for international moves than for internal moves and that female networks are more important than male networks for moves within Mexico. For moves to the United States, male migrant networks are more important for prospective male migrants than for female migrants, and female migrant networks lower the odds of male migration, but significantly increase female migration. We suggest that distinguishing the gender composition and destination content of migrant networks deepens our understanding of how cumulative causation affects patterns of Mexican migration.     

The determinants of migration between standard metropolitan statistical areas

The primary purpose of this paper is to analyze the “determinants” of migration between Standard Metropolitan Statistical Areas (SMSA’s) in the United States. The magnitudes in which various factors have influenced inter-SMSA migration are estimated both for the country as a whole and for individual SMSA’s. The “migration elasticities” estimated for individual SMSA’s are in turn used to test several additional hypotheses concerning migrant behavior. Other similar migration studies have found “wrong” signs or insignificant coefficients on certain variables a priori thought to play a crucial role in the migration process. Finally, we present clues to the causes of such “surprising” results.     

Prospects for international migration: Globalization and its discontents

The paper challenges the view that the late twentieth century is the ‘age of migration’. For developing countries, flows of out-migrants are small compared with population growth, although in developed countries the stock of immigrants increased in proportion to the total population between 1965 and 1990. Despite the importance of refugee movement, the main force for international migration is economic. Why do not more people migrate (internally and internationally) to take advantage of potential economic gains? For international migration, one deterrent is institutional barriers against uncontrolled immigration. Different interest groups stand to gain or lose from increased migration. The income-enhancing effects of unhindered international labour migration, measured jointly for sending and receiving countries and by extension globally, should be very large. Even partial liberalization of immigration to industrialized countries would serve developing countries well. In industrialized countries, however, there is concern about the effect of massive labour inflows on the ethnic, religious and cultural composition of the population and its social cohesion. In some countries, migration is leading to greater ethnic mingling; in others there is a recrudescence of nationalistic aspirations for independent statehood with ethnically homogeneous populations, or to preserve the advantages of economically successful subregions.     

A framework for the study of migration destination selection

This article raises a number of issues that have generally not been addressed in previous studies of migration destination selection. Destination selection is seen as the result of two processes; (1) the sorting among a relatively large number of potential destinations over a lifetime, and (2) the selection among a relatively few (usually one or two) places at the time of the migration decision. Decision rules may differ in the two processes. The actual selection of a destination is based on place utilities derived from a combination of factors including: economic and noneconomic; micro (those attributes unique to one place); and macro (those applicable to larger geographic areas).     

Metropolitan migration efficiency

The migration efficiency ratio of an area is defined as the net migration of the area (in-migrants minus out-migrants) divided by the total number of moves whose origin or destination is that area (in-migrants plus out-migrants) multiplied by 100. This paper investigates variations in migration efficiency from 1955 to 1960 among Standard Metropolitan Statistical Areas with populations of 250,000 or more. Regional variation in migration efficiency was evident, ranging from an average of ?9.7 in the Northeast to 19.6 for SMSA’s in the Western region. Nonwhites tended to have higher migration efficiency than whites. Rapidly growing metropolitan areas had higher migration efficiency ratios than areas growing at a lower rate or losing population. The educational level of a metropolitan area, as measured by the percent of the population 25 years old or over with at least a high school education, was positively related to migration efficiency. The composition of the migrant population, both in- and outmigrants for a given area, was related to the value of the migration efficiency ratio. If the migrant population contained a large proportion of persons aged 20–34, migration efficiency was low, regardless of the direction of the major migration stream. Region was found to have a major effect. Variables that had a strong and positive relationship with migration efficiency in one region were usually found to have no relation, or a negative relation, with it in other areas. Obviously, further research is needed for the identification of factors producing these strong regional effects.     

Rethinking measures of migration: On the decomposition of net migration

The purpose of this paper is to “resurrect” the measure of net migration and defend its continued use under specific research circumstances, despite the current dissatisfaction with the measure as expressed by some scholars. We employ data from the 1980 Census of Population to compare five measures of migration, including net migration rates, in- and out-migration rates, migration efficiency ratios and migration turnover rates. We demonstrate the additivity of in- and out-migration rates with net migration rates and migration turnover rates. Also, we show how the migration efficiency ratio and turnover rates are conceptually and mathematically related. Finally, a simple multivariate model is estimated to show how regression coefficients from in-and out-migration rate models are related to net migration and migration turnover rates.