Intergenerational redistribution in a small open economy with endogenous fertility

For pay-as-you-go financed pension systems, claims may be calculated according to individual contributions (income) or the number of children of a family. We analyse the optimal structure of these parameters in a model with endogenous fertility. It is shown that for both structural determinants there exists no interior solution of the problem of intragenerational utility maximisation. Thus, pure systems are always welfare maximizing. Furthermore, children-related pension claims induce a fiscal externality that tends to be positive. The determination of the optimal contribution rate shows that the widely accepted Aaron-condition is in general a misleading indicator for the comparison of fully funded and pay-as-you-go financed pension systems. Received March 12, 1996 / Accepted January 27, 1997     

A computable general equilibrium assessment of the impact of illegal immigration on the Greek economy

Recent years have witnessed a large inflow of illegal immigrants into Greece. Past surveys have examined the extent and nature of this immigration, but have not analysed the impacts on the economy. This paper presents a theoretical and empirical analysis of the impact of illegal immigration on the economy of the small open type, like that of Greece. The theoretical analysis uses a small stylised model to show that there is no unequivocal case for illegal immigration to lead to declines in the real wages of unskilled labour and increases in the real wages of skilled. Empirical analysis using a recently constructed applied general equilibrium model for Greece, adapted to the purpose in hand, shows that the inflow of illegal immigrants has resulted in declines of the real disposable incomes of two classes of households among the fifteen modelled, namely those headed by an unskilled person, that are poor and middle income. All other households gain. The ones who lose, however, make up about 37% of the Greek population. The distributional effects are moderated, however, when rigidities in the labour market are simulated. Received: 16 May 1997/Accepted: 18 March 1998     

Welfare effects of illegal immigration

This paper analyzes the welfare effect of illegal immigration on the host country within a dynamic general equilibrium framework and shows that it is positive for two reasons. First, immigrants are paid less than their marginal product, and second, after an increase in immigration, domestic households find it optimal to increase their holdings of capital. It is also shown that dynamic inefficiency may arise, despite the fact that the model is of the Ramsey type. Nevertheless, the introduction of a minimum wage, which leads to job competition between domestic unskilled workers and immigrants reverses all of the above results.

Immigration, integration and fiscal sustainability

Economic theory points out that immigration of even low-skilled immigrants may improve public finances in Western welfare states, and it is sometimes suggested that fiscal sustainability problems in Western countries caused by ageing populations could be solved by increasing immigration. We examine consequences of various immigration scenarios using the large-scale computable general equilibrium model Danish rational economic agents model describing the Danish economy. It turns out that increased immigration will generally worsen the Danish fiscal sustainability problem. Improved economic integration of immigrants and their descendants, however, may alleviate the problems of the public sector considerably. Responsible editor: Klaus F. Zimmermann     

养老金指数调整的福利经济学分析

市场经济条件下,通货膨胀使退休金遭到很大侵蚀。因此,对养老金建立适度调整指数具有重要意义。本文从福利经济学视角,基于代际交叠模型阐述建立养老金调整指数的理论根源,并依据卡尔多一希克斯的社会福利补偿标准及公平与效率兼顾的原则,构建适度调整指数合理区间及选择标准。     

The fiscal impact of immigration to welfare states of the Scandinavian type

In this paper, we examine the potential of immigration to strengthen fiscal sustainability, which is under pressure by an ageing population in many European countries. We look at a particularly challenging case, namely that of Denmark, which has extensive tax-financed welfare programmes that provide a high social safety net. The analysis is based on a forecast of the entire Danish economy made using a dynamic computable general equilibrium model with overlapping generations. We present life cycle estimates of the potential fiscal impact of immigration considering the cost of immigration on the margin as well as on average. The main conclusion is that immigrants from Western countries have a positive fiscal impact, while immigrants from non-Western countries have a large negative one, which is also the case when considering only non-refugee immigrants. The negative effect is caused by both a weak labour market performance and early retirement in combination with the universal Danish welfare schemes.     

中国农民养老生命周期补偿理论及补偿水平研究

中国实现养老保险全覆盖的难点是农民。文章提出"二元农业福利差"理论并将其运用于解决中国农民养老生命周期的福利补偿问题。文中选取"均衡与偏斜务农收入差异"作为核心指标,构建了中国工农二元经济结构条件下的"二元农业福利差"数理模型,并结合1953～2009年数据对其进行检验,发现中国二元农业福利差总体上在0.4～0.6区间内波动。同时依据中国农民自然生命周期、政策生命周期和体制生命周期的特点,提出将二元农业福利差补偿到农民基础养老金中的路径、水平及相关政策建议。     

Welfare Regimes for Aging Populations: No Single Path for Reform

We consider recent trends in pension policies in OECD countries in light of demographic aging associated with welfare regime type (Liberal, Social Democratic, Continental, and Southern European). These regime types represent different responsibilities assumed for social security on the part of the market, the state, and the family. While there are significant differences in labor market characteristics, the demographic similarities in aging bring similar pressures for pension reforms across OECD countries. These reforms address fiscal issues in state pensions, typically by increasing the length of the working life, placing more of the pension responsibility on individuals, or converting to defined‐contribution approaches. Our study shows that there is no single path for pension reform. While there are some variations, welfare states tend to follow their traditional paths, which differ across welfare regime types.     

国家责任本位的体现——“江村”农民基本养老保险的实践与思考

基于对正在“江村”实施的农村基本养老保险的调查,从国家与“江村”农民在农业税与社会保障的汲取与给付的历时态考察,发现“江村”农民的养老保障经历了集体责任本位、个人责任本位,而目前国家在“江村”农民基本养老保险建设中对农民的供款是农村养老社会保障中国家责任本位的体现。文章还指出实施中的农村基本养老保险制度不应设定一些“株连一家”的规定,从而让国家责任本位体现得更加充分。     

Migration, trade and wages

This paper analyses the impact of immigration on the UK labour market using the GNP function approach. We find that an increase in the number of unskilled immigrants reduces the wages of unskilled domestic workers, though the quantitative impact of this increase is small. No discernible impact of migration is found for skilled native workers. The results also suggest that unskilled immigrant workers and imports are substitutes in production, whilst skilled immigrant workers and imports are complements.     

The Impact of Social Expenditure on Attitudes Towards Immigration in Europe

There is a growing body of literature dealing with the causes behind anti-immigrant sentiment and xenophobia. Based on the literature on the fiscal burden model, this paper contends that the differences in attitudes toward immigration, between low and high statuses, can be explained by the size of the welfare state. We argue that the impact of socio-economic status on attitudes toward immigration is larger in countries where social expenditure is high. Since a potential increase in the number of welfare recipients due to new immigrants might lead to a reduction in per capita transfers, low-income individuals in these countries are expected to be more concerned about the effect of immigration on social benefits. Using multilevel models and data from the European Social Survey we have found that while the effect of socio-economic status on attitudes toward immigration is positive there is a great deal of variation between countries. The difference in attitudes between high and low socio-economic statuses increases as social expenditure increases. Moreover, increases of social expenditure in the short run increases anti-immigrant sentiment as it raises concerns about the impact of immigration on welfare services.     

Immigration and Natives’ Attitudes towards the Welfare State: Evidence from the European Social Survey

Does immigration reduce natives’ support for the welfare state? Evidence from the European Social Survey (2002/2003) suggests a more qualified relation. For Europe as a whole, there is only weak evidence of a negative association between the perceived presence of immigrants and natives’ support for the welfare state. However, this weak average relationship masks considerable heterogeneity across countries. We distinguish two channels through which immigration could affect natives’ support for the welfare state: a pure dislike of immigrants and concerns about the economic consequences of immigration. We find that natives who hold both negative views react much more negatively to a given perceived share of immigrants than natives who hold neither view. However, there is no clear pattern concerning the relative importance of the two channels. Finally, we find that natives who hold either of these negative views of immigrants tend to be less supportive of the welfare state independently of the perceived presence of immigrants.     

社区养老服务的规划与设计——以南京市为例

社区养老服务是破解养老难题的钥匙之一。在考察与分析中国社区养老服务发展现状与问题的基础上,从居家入户服务、老年人日间照顾中心等七个方面对南京市社区养老服务进行规划与设计,并从扩大和完善社区养老服务职能、使其承担部分家庭已无法完成的养老功能,做好老年社区福利事业规划,整合社区资源,加强社区养老设施建设,建立多层次社区服务网络,实施生活照料等维度对加强社区养老服务提出了具体的操作建议。     

老龄化下德国养老保障制度改革研究

人口老龄化是世界各国养老保障制度共同面临的严峻挑战。作为老龄化相当严重的典范福利国家,德国在过去20多年间对养老保障制度进行了一系列的改革,其宗旨是优先确保公共养老金的长期可持续发放,同时兼顾维护社会公平的诉求。本文拟回顾德国养老保障制度的改革之路,并从可持续性和公平性两个角度去分析改革的成效,进而探究德国改革的成功经验和其实践中亟待反思和解决的现实问题。     

Efficiency and equity as goals for contemporary U.S. immigration policy

As the United States has entered its postindustrial stage of economic development, mass immigration has again become a distinguishing feature of the U.S. economy. In all of its diverse forms, immigration presently accounts for anywhere from one-quarter to one-third of the annual growth of the U.S. labor force. By the turn of the 21st century, it could conceivably comprise all of such growth.Immigration is the one aspect of population and labor force growth that public policy should be able to shape and control. Unfortunately, however, the extant public policies that govern the size and composition of the immigrant and refugee flows are largely unrelated to emerging economic considerations.The revival of mass immigration is not taking place in a vacuum. Indeed, it appears that the labor market is being radically transformed. The demand for labor is increasingly favoring those workers with skill and education. There are diminishing needs for job seekers without these human capital endowments. On the labor supply side, it is unfortunately the case that the United States already has a significant number of adults who are ill-prepared for many jobs that are being created.To assist in this effort to enhance efficiency, immigration policy should be flexible. It should be capable of responding to changing domestic economic conditions. Currently, the nation's immigration policy is dominated by political motivations that give priority to family reunification and humanitarian goals. Immigration can be a short run means to provide skilled and educated workers to fill critical worker shortages. But in the long run, equity considerations derived from the nation's multiracial and multicultural character of the labor force also come into play. It is imperative that citizen workers be prepared for the high quality jobs in the growth industries of its postindustrial economy. Immigration must not inhibit market pressures from encouraging employers to provide better opportunities for training and employment of citizens.The obverse is also true. It is essential that immigration does not provide only workers who can be employed in the declining occupations and industries. With a sizeable adult illiteracy problem already, the nation can ill-afford to increase the pool of unskilled and poorly educated workers, which increases the competition among such workers for the shrinking number of jobs available to them.     

Immigration restrictions and the American worker: An examination of competing interpretations

This paper examines three competing interpretations of support for tougher immigration restrictions. One interpretation posits that tighter restrictions are favored by those in direct competition with immigrants for jobs, namely low or unskilled workers who toil in labor markets that are low-paying and often unstable. A second line of thought is that greater restrictions are favored by workers who perceive immigrants as potential competitors in labor markets, even though there may be no real basis for such perceptions. The third interpretation explaining support for tougher restrictions is rooted in a broad based cultural nativism or nationalism, and relies heavily on traditional theories of prejudice and discrimination. Data for the study are derived from the 1992 National Election Survey, Inter-University Consortium for Political and Social Research. Contrary to theoretical expectations, neither actual nor perceived economic insecurity explain variations in current levels of support for tougher immigration restrictions among American workers. The theoretical significance of the findings are discussed and elaborated. Suggestions are made for future research in this important area of inquiry.     

Gastarbeiter in West Germany and Switzerland: an assessment of host society-immigrant relations

West Germany and Switzerland have in general pursued similar immigration policies with respect to alien labor. In spite of a convergence in official policy and a change from temporary migration to settlement in both countries, immigrant groups in West Germany and Switzerland have displayed different attitudes and rates of integration within the host societies. Even when narrowing our discussion to one national group, the Italians, we find substantial differences persist. These cannot be attributed to the percentage of unskilled workers from Italy, intention to stay, the general social climate of the host societies, or even to political institutions such as trade unions. Rather, the higher integration and assimilation of Italians in Switzerland than in Germany appears to be related to structural and demographic factors. Unless policy-makers are aware of the importance of these factors, it is unlikely that they can adequately respond to the complexity and diversity of the problems generated by foreign workers.     

Long-term effects of international migration: Lessons from Israel

The paper shows that characteristics of immigrants at the time of immigration affect both long-term occupational achievements and income at the end of the labor force career, after age 59. Data representing 174,000 Jewish males 60 and older from a 1985 survey by the Israeli Central Bureau of Statistics are analyzed to show how the timing of immigration, the number of years in the country, age at immigration, country of origin, and educational resources at time of immigration are related to years in the labor force in the host country, occupational achievement, pension entitlement and income after age 59. Both direct and indirect effects are analyzed. The results show the importance of immigration characteristics on long-term socioeconomic adjustment, and the necessity of considering social status over the life course as an indicator of long-term immigrant adjustment. Decomposition of the effect of country of origin pinpoints what characteristics at time of immigration influence social status differences in ethnic groups at older ages. The discussion includes a number of methodological implications for future studies in immigration.Abbreviations AA Asian-African - CBS Israeli Central Bureau of Statistics - EA European-American This article is based on a paper presented at the annual meeting of the Society for the Advancement of Socio-Economics, New York, March 1993. It was written while the authors were on leave from Ben-Gurion University of the Negev.     

中国养老公共服务供给研究

随着我国人口老龄化问题的加剧,养老公共服务的供需矛盾日益突出。我国养老公共服务供给体系由物质性保障供给和非物质性保障供给两大系统构成,研究表明,我国养老公共服务供给水平较低、总体规模增长缓慢。2010年17项养老公共服务评价指标中,有8项指标呈现负增长状态,其中社区从业人员数量出现较大幅度下降,表明我国养老公共服务从业人员的匮乏。将60岁及以上的各省老年人口总数作为需求总体,通过构造养老公共服务供给的综合指数,可以分析我国养老公共服务的省际差异。我国养老公共服务供给水平的省际差异显著,西部落后省份的供给能力严重不足。养老公共服务供给问题已经成为中国面临的一个重要社会问题,构建一个公共服务型政府、建立健全社会养老公共服务制度是未来发展的方向。     

The Economic Effects of Immigration into the United Kingdom

This article is concerned with the economic effects of immigration. The emphasis is on Britain, but extensive material is also provided on other countries. Since 1997 a new British immigration policy has displaced previous policy aims, which were focused on minimizing settlement. Large-scale immigration is now seen as essential for Britain's economic well-being, and measures have been introduced to increase inflows. The benefits claimed include fiscal advantages, increased prosperity, a ready supply of labor, and improvements to the age structure. Fears that large-scale immigration might damage the interests of unskilled workers are discounted. This article examines these claims. It concludes that the economic consequences of large-scale immigration are mostly minor, negative, or transient, that the interests of more vulnerable sections of the domestic population may well be damaged, and that any economic benefits are unlikely to bear comparison with immigration's probable substantial and permanent demographic and environmental impact. Our claims are in line with those from other developed countries.