关于中国家庭户变化的探讨与分析

文章对家庭研究基本概念进行了梳理,指出家庭户的演化是立户模式与家庭代际人口结构的互动过程,并就此推论中国流行的主干家庭模式在未来会促发老年"空巢"家庭.研究发现,人口因素对家庭户规模缩小的影响近年来不断减弱,而社会经济发展方面的影响正在增强.生活在"空巢"家庭的老年人口比例增长迅速,表明家庭分化水平正在提高.近年城乡隔代户人口比例增加显著,农村的情况尤其突出,反映了农村大量住户只剩老人与少儿留守的情况.此外,文章对不同阶段的人口流动对家庭分化与聚合的影响也进行了讨论.     

贫困地区劳动力迁移、农户收入与贫困的缓解——基于新疆农户面板数据的实证分析

本文基于新疆30个贫困县、3000个农户、2008-2010年的微观面板数据,在控制了家庭规模、劳动力数量等家庭特征变量和粮食播种面积等村庄特征变量的前提下．运用固定效应法与工具变量法分别考察了劳动力迁移规模、迁移方式与迁移区位对家庭收入的影响．并进一步分析了劳动力迁移对贫困的缓解效应。回归结果表明：劳动力迁移规模虽然对农户农业收入有负向影响．但显著提高了农户人均收入与利他性收入：自发性迁移与政府组织性迁移方式均能显著提高农户收入,且自发性迁移的作用更强;省内县外迁移对农户收入的提高最为显著,其次为县内乡外迁移．省外迁移不影响农户收入：劳动力迁移规模提高了中等收入农户的收入水平。但对贫困户的贫困无缓解效应．也不影响富裕户的收入水平。     

中国不同家庭类型人口分性别年龄和户主状况的研究

家庭类型的划分有按照户规模的分类、按照户内代数的分类、以及按照家庭模式(如核心家庭、主干家庭、联合家庭)的分类.在我国现有的普查资料汇总中,只有按户内人数和户内代数进行划分的户数分布,而按照家庭模式的分类至今尚未成为普查汇总表的内容.在家庭户研究中,仅仅将户数分类不能满足需要,还应该取得按不同户型的人口分布情况.根据按户规模分布的户数可以计算出各种规模户的人口数,但是所能提供的信息仍然十分有限.户规模只注重了户内的纯数量关系,而按户内代数的划分考虑了代际关系,按户模式划分则能更好地揭示户内的人际关系.本文尝试以1987年全国1%人口抽样调查的5%再抽样数据带进行按户内代数分类的人口研究,包括将人口按性别年龄以及户主状况进行详细分析.     

我国家庭动态变化对二氧化碳排放的影响分析

人口数量及其增长率常常被认为是二氧化碳排放增长的重要推动力之一,而家庭变动对二氧化碳排放的影响往往被忽视。基于此,采用VAR模型,通过脉冲响应函数来考察人口和家庭变动对二氧化碳排放的动态影响,并用方差分解法揭示其相互影响程度及差异。结果表明,家庭层面变量对二氧化碳排放的影响远大于人口总量对二氧化碳排放的影响。考察人口总量、平均家庭规模以及家庭户变动三者对二氧化碳排放影响的贡献差异发现,平均家庭规模对二氧化碳排放的影响大于家庭户变动对二氧化碳排放的影响,且大于人口总量对二氧化碳排放的影响。相对于人口总量,以家庭户为视角来研究人口因素对二氧化碳的影响更为重要。因此,在节能减排的政策建议中,应当更多倡导推广有利于可持续发展的家庭户模式,家庭减排对于减排目标的实现将具有更大的潜力。     

我国人口态势与消费模式对碳排放的影响分析

本文应用STIRPAT扩展模型,考察近30年来我国人口规模、人口结构、居民消费及技术进步因素对碳排放的影响。研究发现,居民消费与人口结构变化对我国碳排放的影响已超过人口规模的单一影响力。居民消费水平提高与碳排放增长高度相关,居民消费模式变化正在成为我国碳排放的新的增长点;人口结构因素中,人口城镇化率的提高通过对化石能源消费、水泥制造及土地利用变化等的影响导致碳排放增长;人口年龄结构变化对生产的影响大于对消费的影响,其对碳排放影响的主要途径是生产领域劳动力的丰富供应;家庭户规模减小导致人均消费支出的增加及总户数消费规模的扩张,以家庭户为分析单位考察其对碳排放的影响具有较高的解释力。针对分析结果,探讨了未来我国低碳社会发展的相关应对之策。     

中国家庭代际功能关系及其新变动

家庭代际功能关系是由义务和责任履行、权利享有、需求交换和情感沟通所组成的体系.社会转型之下,亲代对子代的教育义务增大,子代赡养亲代义务减轻;高龄和生活不能自理父母对子女尚有照料依赖.随着独生子女一代的长大,女儿在代际功能关系中的作用提高,甚至具有不可替代性;人口预期寿命提高,直系成员存世代数增加,4代存世家庭大幅度上升,可能加大子代的照料负担.整体看子代“回馈”亲代的功能下降,直接影响育龄夫妇的生育行为.子代代际功能关系履行降低有社会福利制度的替代、客观条件制约的作用,也有主观意识弱化的因素,还有约束性制度环境欠缺的问题.政府和社会组织应推动适应现代社会要求的新的代际功能关系的建立.     

中国贫困地区农户经济收入差异分析

据1986年统计,我国部分位于山地、高原及其它自然条件较差的地区年人均收入低于200元,农民的劳动收入不足以维持基本生活需要。1986年开始,中央和省(自治区)政府进一步强化了扶贫措施,农村经济改革政策在贫困地区开始得到更具体、深入的落实,到1989年,贫困地区中65％的贫困农户基本解决了温饱问题,30％的农户三年实现了收入翻一番的目标,其中6％左右的农户年人均收入超千元,开始向“小康”迈进。显然,过去那种在贫困状态下农户收入“均衡”的局面已经被打破,户与户间的收入差异已很明显。为便于探寻产生收入差异的原因和农户经济发展中的问题和潜力,我们应用多元层次logistic回归分析方法,以家庭户为基本分析单位,从家庭人力资源、人口特征、土地资源和生产工具几个方面对影响农户收入的相关因素进行分析。     

土地要素对农户就业行为及农户收入影响研究——基于甘肃省青城镇344家农户调查

基于甘肃省青城镇344家农户调查数据,运用二项分类Logistic回归模型与多元线性回归模型,对土地要素对农户就业行为及农户收入的影响进行了实证分析。研究结果表明：土地要素条件与农户家庭劳动力外出务工的概率成反比,与农户经营设施农业的概率成正比,而对农户收入的影响不显著。     

劳动力外出务工对农户农业商品化率的影响——基于江西省四个县农户调研的实证分析

农村劳动力向非农产业和城镇转移是提高农业商品化水平的必然要求。本文使用近期的农户调研数据考察了家庭成员外出务工对农户农业商品化率的影响。计量分析表明,从整体上看,务工户与非务工户之间的农业商品率不存在显著差异。我们将农业生产按要素密集程度进行划分后,才发现成员外出务工所带来的潜在影响,务工户粮食生产的商品化率有了提高,而其它农业生产的商品化率则显著下降了。此外,我们还发现,农地市场及农村信贷市场发育对农户农业商品化发展具有重要作用。     

贫困地区人口健康存量与减缓贫困的实证研究

本文利用四个调研县的数据调查资料为背景,定量地评估与分析了贫困地区农户的健康状况以及健康存量对农户收入水平的影响。结果发现,虽然贫困地区人口健康水平有所提高,但仍然存在着农户健康存量普遍不高的现象： 不过,实证研究还显示,个体健康存量与其家庭经济收入水平和农户脱贫致富有着积极的作用。因此,提高农户健康存量是贫困地区人力资源开发的一个重点。     

睡眠质量对家庭风险性资产配置的影响

文章采用2016年和2018年中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)面板数据,讨论了睡眠质量对家庭持有风险性金融资产广度和深度的作用特征。研究发现,睡眠质量对家庭风险性金融资产选择的广度和深度产生了显著的正向影响。在对不同职业群体和2012年CFPS数据进行估计后,仍得到一致的结论。文章进一步对影响机制研究发现,睡眠质量会通过收入水平、健康状况与认知能力对家庭风险性金融资产配置产生影响。神经质人格与睡眠质量的交互作用和家庭风险性金融资产配置也显著相关。此外,睡眠质量对家庭风险性金融资产投资的影响存在异质性,这一影响在城市地区、女性为财务决策者和高受教育水平的家庭中更为显著。     

Family planning and deforestation: evidence from the Ecuadorian Amazon

Despite an abundant literature exploring the relationship between population growth and forest cover change, comparatively little research has examined the forest cover impacts of family planning use—a key determinant of population growth rates in many developing countries. Using data from a panel survey of farms in the Northern Ecuadorian Amazon, this paper explores whether family planning use affects changes in forest cover. After controlling for household life cycle effects, family planning use among female heads of farm households did not have an independent effect on deforestation, reforestation, or net forest loss between 1990 and 2008. Rather, shorter-term drivers of forest change tend to be associated with household life cycles and shifts in production and consumption. However, family planning will continue to improve development and health outcomes for women by reducing unwanted fertility and may offer longer-term environmental benefits.     

Destroyed by Slavery? Slavery and African American Family Formation Following Emancipation

This study introduces a new sample that links people and families across 1860, 1880, and 1900 census data to explore the intergenerational impact of slavery on black families in the United States. Slaveholding—the number of slaves owned by a single farmer or planter—is used as a proxy for experiences during slavery. Slave family structures varied systematically with slaveholding sizes. Enslaved children on smaller holdings were more likely to be members of single-parent or divided families. On larger holdings, however, children tended to reside in nuclear families. In 1880, a child whose mother had been on a farm with five slaves was 49 % more likely to live in a single-parent household than a child whose mother had been on a farm with 15 slaves. By 1900, slaveholding no longer had an impact. However, children whose parents lived in single-parent households were themselves more likely to live in single-parent households and to have been born outside marriage.     

Books and publications received

Efforts to control rampant population growth in sub-Saharan Africa have been stymied by confusion between the potential causes and consequences of high fertility in the region. A controversy has surfaced over the causal direction of the fundamental relationship between human fertility and size of landholdings. Members of one school of thought claim that farm couples modify their fertility behaviour according to the amount of land they own or operate. Yet others argue that the size of landholdings varies as a function of family size (an indicator of the availability of family labour). In the present study we use a two-stage least-squares regression on data from a 1988 survey of 747 farm households in Rwanda to disaggregate and compare the strengths of these two possible paths of influence. The results show that landholdings exert a positive influence on human reproduction, but not the reverse. Moreover, this influence is slightly stronger for couples who own all the land they operated, probably because they have larger incomes from equity in the land. The size of the farm is unrelated to the size of the family's potential farm labour force (measured as the number of household members aged 15–65) or to the husband's total desired number of children. These findings suggest that farm size boosts the number of living children not by creating a demand for more children but by increasing the supply of children through higher natural fertility and child survival.     

Farm Household Lifecycles and Land Use in the Ecuadorian Amazon

This paper describes trends in population, household formation, fragmentation of landholdings, and changes in land use between 1990 and 1999 in the Northern Ecuadorian Amazon (NEA)—one of the areas of highest biodiversity in the world. It also shows how changes in land use are associated with the duration (or age) of the farm settlement, which is also linked to the stage in the farm household lifecycle and household composition. The study is based upon data from two detailed household surveys, which result in a cohort of 246 farm households interviewed in 1990 and 1999 as well as 383 new farm households constituted after 1990. Distinct patterns of land use are linked with duration of settlement, independent of when settlement occurred in the region.     

Gender and savings in rural India

In this study we use data from rural India to examine the impact of the birth of a boy relative to the birth of a girl (i.e., the “gender shock”) on the savings, consumption and income of rural Indian households. We find that the gender shock reduces savings for medium and large farm households, although there is no evidence that the shock affects savings for the landless and the small farm households. We also estimate the effect of the shock on income and consumption for the former group in order to determine the source of the drop in savings. The results indicate that the fall in savings subsequent to the gender shock arises from its effect on consumption in the year following the birth, and from its effect on income in other years. Received: 3 September 1996 /Accepted: 15 July 1997     

中老年家庭灾难性医疗支出的测度及影响因素 ——基于CHARLS数据的实证

基于2011-2015年三期平衡面板数据,对中老年家庭的灾难性医疗支出进行测度并分析其影响因素。研究发现:我国中老年家庭灾难性医疗支出发生率在考察期内进一步扩大,差距也进一步上升。以家庭可支付能力的40%为灾难性医疗支出的界定标准,则在2015年其发生率依然高达25.4%,平均差距为0.069,相对差距为0.272。引入安德森医疗服务利用模型对影响因素进行分析,结果显示家中有住院、门诊及残障人员更容易发生灾难性医疗支出,经济状况对灾难性性医疗支出发生起着显著作用,总体而言灾难性医疗支出具有"亲贫"效应,越是贫困的家庭越容易发生灾难性医疗支出。据此,文章提出应该采取分类管理的措施,通过发放免费医疗服务券、强化医疗费用控制等政策建议来切实降低灾难性医疗支出的发生。     

Adolescent Health in Hong Kong: Disturbing Socio-Demographic Correlates

Relationships between self-assessed health status and socio-demographic variables were examined among 4,502 Chinese adolescent secondary school students in Hong Kong, a modern society with traditional Chinese ethno-cultural origin. Health status was self-rated in four aspects: overall health, physical health, mental health, and health effects on usual activities. In both the bivariate and multivariate analyses, there was health advantage for adolescent males relative to females, and there were inverse relationships between health level and age/level of study, in all four health aspects. Family structure was an important risk factor for all health aspects. Two-parent family was associated with significantly higher health levels than those living with father only, or with no parent/single parent and other adults, but not those living with mother only. Mainland-born adolescents had higher risks of low health level than the local-born in the aspect of overall health status. Finally economically well-being was associated with lower level of mental health.     

城镇居民收入差距扩大的现状、原因及抑制对策

随着市场经济的快速发展,城镇居民家庭的收入水平有了明显提高。与此同时,也存在着居民家庭收入差距加大的突出问题。本文通过采集中国分阶层城镇居民家庭人均年收入、恩格尔系数等资料。利用洛伦茨曲线结合其它相关统计分析,揭示了收入水平的提高和差距扩大的严峻状况。并对差距扩大的历史、劳动力、经济、政策等原因进行了分析,在此基础上提出了加快经济发展,规范市场环境,落实“扩中、保低、调高”方针、取缔非法收入、加大教育投入、建立健全社会保障制度等抑制收入差距扩大的对策建议。