中国城乡弱相对贫困测算及时空演变：2012—2018

相对贫困的识别和测算是瞄准贫困人口和制定减贫政策的基础,但常用于识别相对贫困人口的比例收入法和测度相对贫困程度的FGT指数在理论基础、比例设定和贫困性质方面遭到质疑。采用基于社会融入成本理论的弱相对贫困人口识别方法,及与弱相对贫困线相适应的分层可加综合贫困指数,且考虑与现阶段我国绝对贫困线衔接性及国际标准的可比性,使用2012—2018年中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)数据估计了中国城乡收入(消费)弱相对贫困线,并测算分析了中国城乡收入(消费)弱相对贫困程度及时空演变特征。研究表明,基于弱相对贫困线构造的综合贫困指数兼顾绝对贫困和相对贫困,可以避免传统FGT指数分别测度绝对贫困和相对贫困时动态变化趋势出现分歧的问题,可更为直观地综合评估经济增长和扶贫政策的减贫效应。无论城乡,尽管不平等导致相对贫困始终处于高位水平,但绝对贫困更大的下降幅度使得中国收入(消费)弱相对贫困程度仍呈稳健下降趋势。从社会融入成本角度出发,建议未来考虑住房成本和子女养育成本,分家庭类型进一步细化弱相对贫困标准。本研究有助于进一步分类瞄准弱相对贫困人口,监测弱相对贫困程度演变并综合评估减贫效应。     

The increasing risk of poverty across the American life course

This article extends the emerging body of life course research on poverty by empirically identifying the incidence, chronicity, and age pattern of American poverty and how these dimensions have changed during the period 1968-2000. Using the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, we construct a series of life tables that estimate the risk of poverty for adults during their 20s, 30s, 40s, 50s, 60s, and 70s, and compare these estimates for Americans in the 1970s, 1980s, and 1990s. Our empirical results suggest that the risk of acute poverty increased substantially, particularly in the 1990s. This observed increase was especially pronounced for individuals in their 20s, 30s, and 40s; for all age groups with respect to extreme poverty; and for white males. On the other hand, the risk of chronic poverty declined during the 1990s (as measured by the percentage of the poor who experienced five or more years of poverty within a 10-year interval). The results in this article tell a very different story than the Census Bureau's yearly cross-sectional rates, which have shown little overall change in the U.S. poverty rate during this 30-year period. In contrast, a life course approach reveals a rising economic risk of acute poverty for individuals, one that is consistent with recent observations and research suggesting that a growing number of Americans will eventually find themselves in an economically precarious position.     

<Emphasis Type="Bold">Neighborhoods,Schools, and Academic Achievement: A Formal Mediation Analysis of Contextual Effects on Reading and Mathematics Abilities</Emphasis>

Although evidence indicates that neighborhoods affect educational outcomes, relatively little research has explored the mechanisms thought to mediate these effects. This study investigates whether school poverty mediates the effect of neighborhood context on academic achievement. Specifically, it uses longitudinal data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, counterfactual methods, and a value-added modeling strategy to estimate the total, natural direct, and natural indirect effects of exposure to an advantaged rather than disadvantaged neighborhood on reading and mathematics abilities during childhood and adolescence. Contrary to expectations, results indicate that school poverty is not a significant mediator of neighborhood effects during either developmental period. Although moving from a disadvantaged neighborhood to an advantaged neighborhood is estimated to substantially reduce subsequent exposure to school poverty and improve academic achievement, school poverty does not play an important mediating role because even the large differences in school composition linked to differences in neighborhood context appear to have no appreciable effect on achievement. An extensive battery of sensitivity analyses indicates that these results are highly robust to unobserved confounding, alternative model specifications, alternative measures of school context, and measurement error, which suggests that neighborhood effects on academic achievement are largely due to mediating factors unrelated to school poverty.     

Dynamics of Asset Poverty in South Korea

Studies of economic insecurity tend to focus on changes in incomes and transitions in and out of income poverty. Yet family economic conditions are shaped by more than just income. Levels of assets and wealth, and changes in these over time also play a role. To identify which groups of the poor have been structurally trapped in poverty over time, using the Korean Welfare Panel Study, we examined the dynamics of asset poverty from 2005 to 2014. We defined three asset poverty lines by operationalizing assets as resources for either future consumption or development. Findings show that asset poverty experience in a previous year significantly increased the probability to incur asset poverty by 5–12% for all analysis samples. In addition, the probability of incurring asset poverty decreased with home ownership, higher disposable income, and greater diversification of the household portfolio. Our findings suggest that the asset poor are likely to fall into structural and persistent poverty over time, and an asset-building approach is needed to improve the asset poverty status of households in South Korea.

     

Time Poverty Thresholds and Rates for the US Population

Time constraints, like money constraints, affect Americans’ well-being. This paper defines what it means to be time poor based on the concepts of necessary and committed time and presents time poverty thresholds and rates for the US population and certain subgroups. Multivariate regression techniques are used to identify the key variables associated with discretionary time and time poverty. The data confirm the idea that individuals in households with children have less discretionary time and are thus more likely to be time poor than those in households without children. Controlling for other household characteristics, an additional child reduces a household adult’s daily discretionary time by 35 min. Surprisingly, while one might expect the necessary and committed activities required of an individual to be less in a two-adult household with children than in a one-adult household with children because child care can be shared, the data show that the presence of such a second adult only marginally reduces the necessary and committed time burden of an individual household member. Perhaps even more surprisingly, household income is not a statistically significant correlate of discretionary time or time poverty.     

Comparing the Monetary and Living Standards Approaches to Poverty Using the Australian Experience

This paper compares the monetary and living standards approaches to poverty using Australian data for the period 2006–2017. The aim is to highlight the conceptual and empirical strengths and weaknesses of the two approaches and identify the similarities and differences that emerge when both are applied to examine what happened over the period and to a limited degree, why. The acknowledged limitations of estimating poverty rates by comparing household income with a poverty line have to a degree been addressed by developments in deprivation research that have generated estimates that are more directly related to living standards, more democratic and more credible. But this approach also has limitations, so its growing popularity need not signify the end of poverty line studies. This paper compares the two approaches, with specific attention paid to ensuring that the estimates are internally consistent over time and comparable at a point in time. Both show a consistent pattern of modest improvement in social disadvantage over the period examined, but they reveal different aspects of change. The monetary approach highlights the role of housing costs in driving changes in poverty, while the more nuanced explanation generated by estimates of deprivation provides detailed insights. The results suggest that each has a positive role to play in better understanding the nature of poverty and identifying the factors driving change over time.

     

Child Poverty in Vietnam: Providing Insights Using a Country-Specific and Multidimensional Model

Despite a wide under-prioritization, the issue of child poverty has received increasing attention worldwide over the last decade. The acknowledgement in Vietnam that child-specific poverty measurement is crucial for poverty efforts directed towards children, and the current lack thereof, instigated the development of a Vietnam child poverty approach. This paper proposes a country-specific, multidimensional and outcome-based approach for the measurement of the incidence, depth and severity of child poverty. It does so at the level of the individual child using household survey data. The development of such an approach at the level of the individual child presents an appropriate alternative for or supplement to the widely used monetary poverty approach, allowing for the use of compatible analytical methods. Findings suggest that 37% of all children in Vietnam live in poverty, with the most pressing areas of deprivation being water, sanitation and leisure. We do not find evidence for a gender bias but do observe a large urban–rural divide, regional disparities and large ethnic inequalities. We argue that this tailor-made approach is a valuable new tool for policy makers and analysts in Vietnam as it enables identification and analysis of poor children, their characteristics and most pressing areas of deprivation within the country’s specific social and cultural context.     

An Application of Bayesian Methods to Small Area Poverty Rate Estimates

Efforts to estimate various sociodemographic variables in small geographic areas are proving difficult with the replacement of the Census long-form with the American Community Survey (ACS). Researchers interested in subnational demographic processes have previously relied on Census 2000 long-form data products in order to answer research questions. ACS data products promise to begin providing up-to-date profiles of the nation’s population and economy; however, unit- and item-level nonresponse in the ACS have left researchers with gaps in subnational coverage resulting in unstable and unreliable estimates for basic demographic measures. Borrowing information from neighboring areas and across time with a spatiotemporal smoothing process based on Bayesian statistical methods, it is possible to generate more stable and accurate estimates of rates for geographic areas not represented in the ACS. This research evaluates this spatiotemporal smoothing process in its ability to derive estimates of poverty rates at the county level for the contiguous United States. These estimates are then compared to more traditional estimates produced by the US Census Bureau, and comparisons between the two methods of estimation are carried out to evaluate the practical application of this smoothing method. Our findings suggest that by using available data from the ACS only, we are able to recreate temporal and spatial patterns of poverty in US counties even in years where data are sparse. Results show that the Bayesian methodology strongly agrees with the estimates produced by the SAIPE program, even in years with little data. This methodology can be expanded to other demographic and socioeconomic data with ease.     

The components of density and the dimensions of residential segregation

The purposes of this research are to examine the relationships between density and residential segregation and to propose a technique for the more precise measurement of social density. Using data from the 1990 US Census for the fifty eight largest metropolitan areas in the United States, we explore the applicability of measuring social density by examining how the dimensions of segregation are related to the components of race-specific and non-race-specific density. Findings suggest that density is an important part of our understanding of the processes involved in the segregation of race/ethnic groups and further that the measurement of social density can make a significant contribution to research on the concentration of poverty, joblessness, and violence.     

Synergies Among Monetary,Multidimensional and Subjective Poverty: Evidence from Nepal

In this paper we construct a Nepal specific multidimensional poverty index using the Nepal Longitudinal Sample Survey (NLSS) for the period 1995–2010. The indicators for Nepal Multidimensional Poverty Index (NMP) have been chosen using the goals set by the Government of Nepal and the perceptions of adequacy as reported by households. In doing so this study combines multidimensional and subjective methods of measuring wellbeing. The subjective data is used to guide the choice of dimensions for the multidimensional analysis. Our findings show that Nepal has had a dramatic fall in multidimensional poverty along with the observed fall in consumption poverty in this period. Comparing the extent to which consumption poverty accurately identifies the multidimensionally poor, we find the error has reduced over time but remains large in proportion to the poverty rate implying the need for a multidimensional measure. For the different ethnic groups and regions the patterns of reduction in poverty are not homogenous and are different from those of consumption poverty with the NMP outperforming the consumption poverty in tracking targeted policy actions.     

The contribution of hour constraints to working poverty in Britain

We explore the implications of hours demand constraints on the propensity to experience poverty. Our analysis of British data suggests that whilst the extent of poverty increased over the period 1985–2001, its intensity, under some measures, declined. In terms of hours constraints, we find that even the most generous elimination of underemployment vis allowing workers to supply as many hours as they prefer (but not as few) without encountering any negative employment and/or hourly wage implications, leaves the poverty rate and poverty gap virtually unchanged.      

One Size Fits All? The Validity of a Composite Poverty Index Across Urban and Rural Households in South Africa

Composite indices have been prominently used in poverty research. However, validity of these indices remains subject to debate. This paper examines the validity of a common type of composite poverty indices using data from a cross-sectional survey of 2477 households in urban and rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. Multiple-group comparisons in structural equation modelling were employed for testing differences in the measurement model across urban and rural groups. The analysis revealed substantial variations between urban and rural respondents both in the conceptualisation of poverty as well as in the weights and importance assigned to individual poverty indicators. The validity of a ‘one size fits all’ measurement model can therefore not be confirmed. In consequence, it becomes virtually impossible to determine a household’s poverty level relative to the full sample. Findings from our analysis have important practical implications in nuancing how we can sensitively use composite poverty indices to identify poor people.     

Research Note: US Census Same-Sex Couple Data: Adjustments to Reduce Measurement Error and Empirical Implications

US Census same-sex couple data represent one of the richest and most frequently used data resources for studying the LGBT population. Recently, the Census Bureau conducted an analysis of a serious measurement problem in these data, finding that as many as 40 % of same-sex couples tabulated in Census 2000 and 28 % of those tabulated in Census 2010 were likely misclassified different-sex couples (O’Connell and Feliz, Bureau of the Census, 2011). As a result, the Census Bureau released new state-level “preferred” estimates for the number of same-sex couples in these years, as well as previously unavailable information regarding the error rate of sex misclassification among different-sex married and unmarried couples by state and year. Researchers can use this information to adjust same-sex couple tabulations for geographic areas below the state level. Using these resources, this study: (1) considers in greater detail how the properties of the same-sex couple error might affect statistical inference, (2) offers a method for developing sub-state estimates of same-sex couples, and (3) demonstrates how using adjusted estimates can improve inference in analyses that rely on understanding the distribution of same-sex couples. In order to accomplish the third task, we replicate an analysis by McVeigh and Diaz (American Sociological Review 74: 891–915, 2009) that used county level Census 2000 unadjusted same-sex couple data, substitute our adjusted same-sex couple estimate, and examine the way in which this substitution affects findings. Our results demonstrate the improved accuracy of the adjusted measure and provide the formula that researchers can use to adjust the same-sex couple distribution in future analyses.     

How Long are Exposures to Poor Neighborhoods? The Long-Term Dynamics of Entry and Exit from Poor Neighborhoods

Although discussions of poor neighborhoods often assume that their residents are a distinct population trapped in impoverished environments for long durations, no past research has examined longitudinal patterns of residence in poor neighborhoods beyond single-year transitions. Using data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics from 1979 to 1990 matched to census tract data, this paper provides the first estimates of duration of stay and rates of re-entry in poor (20%+ poor) and extremely poor (40%+ poor) census tracts. The results indicate that (1) there is great racial inequality in longitudinal patterns of exposure to poorneighborhoods – mostAfrican Americans will live in a poor neighborhood over a 10 year span, contrasted to only 10 percent of whites; (2) exits from high poverty neighborhoods are not uncommon, but re-entries to poor neighborhoods following an exit are also very common, especially among African Americans; and (3) length of spell in a poor neighborhood is positively associated with low income, female headship, and, most of all, black race. Little of the racial difference is accounted for by racial difference in poverty status or family structure. Implications for research and public policy are discussed.     

Spatial inequality and poverty among American children

National-level statistics often mask extreme spatial differentiation in child poverty. Using county-level data from the 1990 US decennial census summary tape file, we show that child poverty is distributed unevenly over geographic space. Child poverty is concentrated in counties in Appalachia, the Mississippi Delta, and the southern black belt. Child poverty rates are strongly influenced by the local industrial composition (e.g., agriculture and manufacturing), but the effects are largely indirect, operating primarily through reduced employment opportunities among adult workers. High county unemployment and underemployment rates contribute directly to children's economic deprivation, as well as indirectly by undermining the formation and stability of two-parent families. Our results highlight existing spatial differentiation and inequality in children's economic well-being, and provide a point of departure for additional research on the geography of child poverty.     

The Socioeconomic Consequences of Privatization: An Empirical Analysis for Europe

This paper analyses the dynamics of poverty in Italy and compares it with that in France, Spain and the UK. For this purpose, we use transition matrices of entry and exit poverty rates and quantify true state dependence through econometric techniques. The analysis exploits the longitudinal component of EU-SILC for the period 2009–2012. Estimation of dynamic random effects probit models shows that, in all countries, after controlling for individual heterogeneity and initial conditions, there is evidence of true state dependence. In comparative terms, when not accounting for regional disparities within countries, the degree of poverty persistence is highest in Italy and lowest in the UK. If regional effects are considered, the degree of poverty persistence in Italy is of the same order of magnitude as in France and Spain, but higher than in the UK. Our findings suggest that unlike other countries, in Italy regional disparities play an important role in explaining poverty state dependence.     

A Comment on Ali Tas˛ıran's `Wage and income effects on the timing and spacing of births in Sweden and in the United States'

This note reviews and evaluates Taşıran's (1995) claim that estimated female wage effects on Swedish fertility dynamics reported by Heckman and Walker (1990) are not robust to the use of microwage data. The results reported here indicate that once individual wage measures have been purged of measurement error, estimated female wage effects are not sensitive to the introduction of microwages. The results reported by Heckman and Walker (1990) persist even with the use of microwage data. Received: 8 March 1996/Accepted: 4 December 2001 I thank Tom MaCurdy, Eric French and two anonymous referees for useful comments. This research was supported by NICHD grants HD-19226 and HD-28685. The usual disclaimer applies. Responsible editor: Klaus F. Zimmermann.     

Social,behavioral, and biological factors,and sex differences in mortality

Few studies have examined whether sex differences in mortality are associated with different distributions of risk factors or result from the unique relationships between risk factors and mortality for men and women. We extend previous research by systematically testing a variety of factors, including health behaviors, social ties, socioeconomic status, and biological indicators of health. We employ the National Health and Nutritional Examination Survey III Linked Mortality File and use Cox proportional hazards models to examine sex differences in adult mortality in the United States. Our findings document that social and behavioral characteristics are key factors related to the sex gap in mortality. Once we control for women’s lower levels of marriage, poverty, and exercise, the sex gap in mortality widens; and once we control for women’s greater propensity to visit with friends and relatives, attend religious services, and abstain from smoking, the sex gap in mortality narrows. Biological factors—including indicators of inflammation and cardiovascular risk—also inform sex differences in mortality. Nevertheless, persistent sex differences in mortality remain: compared with women, men have 30% to 83% higher risks of death over the follow-up period, depending on the covariates included in the model. Although the prevalence ofriskfactors differs by sex, the impact of those riskfactors on mortality is similar for men and women.     

Ethno-Linguistic Affiliation and Income Poverty in Native Households with Children: Finland 1987–2011

The child poverty rate has increased noticeably in Finland since the mid-1990s, and there are numerous studies in this area. However, little is known about child poverty in the two native and equal population groups, Finnish speakers and Swedish speakers. Using detailed register-based data that cover the period 1987–2011, we analyze how child poverty depends on parental ethno-linguistic affiliation, and whether there is variation in income poverty across these households over time. The poverty measure is relative and based on equalized taxable household income of households with children. Odds of poverty are estimated with logistic regression models using generalized estimating equations to account for repeated observations at the household level. The analyses are restricted to areas with both Swedish- and Finnish-speaking settlement. Single-parent and two-parent households are analyzed separately. Poverty rates increased in all major types of households during the study period, but variation by ethno-linguistic affiliation was fairly modest. Swedish-speaking single-parent and two-parent households experienced a smaller increase in the poverty rate than Finnish-speaking ones, while patterns observed for exogamous households were less clear. The contribution of control variables on the ethno-linguistic poverty differences was modest. Considering that the ethno-linguistic groups studied are indigenous and equal, the small differences in poverty rates between Finnish speakers and Swedish speakers are evidence of a democratic and well-functioning welfare state, although the increasing overall poverty rates over time require future scrutiny by both policy makers and researchers.