Forecasting using locally stationary wavelet processes

Locally stationary wavelet (LSW) processes, built on non-decimated wavelets, can be used to analyse and forecast non-stationary time series. They have been proved useful in the analysis of financial data. In this paper, we first carry out a sensitivity analysis, then propose some practical guidelines for choosing the wavelet bases for these processes. The existing forecasting algorithm is found to be vulnerable to outliers, and a new algorithm is proposed to overcome the weakness. The new algorithm is shown to be stable and outperforms the existing algorithm when applied to real financial data. The volatility forecasting ability of LSW modelling based on our new algorithm is then discussed and shown to be competitive with traditional GARCH models.     

Multivariate locally stationary 2D wavelet processes with application to colour texture analysis

In this article we propose a novel framework for the modelling of non-stationary multivariate lattice processes. Our approach extends the locally stationary wavelet paradigm into the multivariate two-dimensional setting. As such the framework we develop permits the estimation of a spatially localised spectrum within a channel of interest and, more importantly, a localised cross-covariance which describes the localised coherence between channels. Associated estimation theory is also established which demonstrates that this multivariate spatial framework is properly defined and has suitable convergence properties. We also demonstrate how this model-based approach can be successfully used to classify a range of colour textures provided by an industrial collaborator, yielding superior results when compared against current state-of-the-art statistical image processing methods.     

On parameter estimation for locally stationary long-memory processes

We consider parameter estimation for time-dependent locally stationary long-memory processes. The asymptotic distribution of an estimator based on the local infinite autoregressive representation is derived, and asymptotic formulas for the mean squared error of the estimator, and the asymptotically optimal bandwidth are obtained. In spite of long memory, the optimal bandwidth turns out to be of the order n^-1/5$n^{-1/5}$ and inversely proportional to the square of the second derivative of d. In this sense, local estimation of d is comparable to regression smoothing with iid residuals.     

On the sample mean of locally stationary long-memory processes

Some asymptotic statistical properties of the sample mean of a class locally stationary long-memory process are studied in this paper. Conditions for consistency are investigated and precise convergence rates of the variance of the sample mean are established for a class of time-varying long-memory parameter functions. A central limit theorem for the sample mean is also established. Furthermore, the calculation of the variance of the sample mean is illustrated through several numerical and simulation experiments.     

Spectral estimation for locally stationary time series with missing observations

Time series arising in practice often have an inherently irregular sampling structure or missing values, that can arise for example due to a faulty measuring device or complex time-dependent nature. Spectral decomposition of time series is a traditionally useful tool for data variability analysis. However, existing methods for spectral estimation often assume a regularly-sampled time series, or require modifications to cope with irregular or ‘gappy’ data. Additionally, many techniques also assume that the time series are stationary, which in the majority of cases is demonstrably not appropriate. This article addresses the topic of spectral estimation of a non-stationary time series sampled with missing data. The time series is modelled as a locally stationary wavelet process in the sense introduced by Nason et al. (J. R. Stat. Soc. B 62(2):271–292, 2000) and its realization is assumed to feature missing observations. Our work proposes an estimator (the periodogram) for the process wavelet spectrum, which copes with the missing data whilst relaxing the strong assumption of stationarity. At the centre of our construction are second generation wavelets built by means of the lifting scheme (Sweldens, Wavelet Applications in Signal and Image Processing III, Proc. SPIE, vol. 2569, pp. 68–79, 1995), designed to cope with irregular data. We investigate the theoretical properties of our proposed periodogram, and show that it can be smoothed to produce a bias-corrected spectral estimate by adopting a penalized least squares criterion. We demonstrate our method with real data and simulated examples.     

Time varying long memory parameter estimation for locally stationary long memory processes

The semiparametric estimators of time varying long memory parameter are investigated for locally stationary long memory processes. The GPH estimator and the local Whittle estimator are considered. Under some mild regularity assumptions, the weak consistency and the asymptotic normality of the estimators are obtained. The finite sample performance of the estimators is discussed through a small simulation study.     

The Cox regression model,random censoring and locally optimal rank tests

Conditions on the hazard functions under the usual log-rank test remains locally optimal for the Cox regression model under random censoring (withdrawal) are examined. In the light of these, the asymptotic efficiency results pertaining to the Cox partial likelihood statistic and the log-rank statistic are studied.     

Bayesian inference and forecasting in the stationary bilinear model

A stationary bilinear (SB) model can be used to describe processes with a time-varying degree of persistence that depends on past shocks. This study develops methods for Bayesian inference, model comparison, and forecasting in the SB model. Using monthly U.K. inflation data, we find that the SB model outperforms the random walk, first-order autoregressive AR(1), and autoregressive moving average ARMA(1,1) models in terms of root mean squared forecast errors. In addition, the SB model is superior to these three models in terms of predictive likelihood for the majority of forecast observations.     

Additive regression model for stationary and ergodic continuous time processes

The main purpose of the present work is to introduce and investigate a simple kernel procedure based on marginal integration that estimates the regression function for stationary and ergodic continuous time processes in the setting of the additive model introduced by Stone (1985 Stone, C.J. (1985). Additive regression and other nonparametric models. Ann. Stat. 13(2):689–705.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]). We obtain the uniform almost sure consistency with exact rate and the asymptotic normality of the kernel-type estimators of the components of the additive model. Asymptotic properties of these estimators are obtained, under mild conditions, by means of martingale approaches. Finally, a general notion of the bootstrapped additive components, constructed by exchangeably weighting sample, is presented.     

Improved likelihood-based inference for the stationary AR(2) model

An improved likelihood-based method based on Fraser et al. (1999) is proposed in this paper to test the significance of the second lag of the stationary AR(2) model. Compared with the test proposed by Fan and Yao (2003) and the signed log-likelihood ratio test, the proposed method has remarkable accuracy. Simulation studies are performed to illustrate the accuracy of the proposed method. Application of the proposed method on historical data is presented to demonstrate the implementation of this method. Furthermore, the method can be extended to the general AR(p) model.     

The stationary bootstrap for the joint distribution of sum and maximum of stationary sequences

In this work, the stationary bootstrap procedure is used to estimate the joint distribution of sum and maximum of strictly stationary strong mixing sequences. Asymptotic validity is established for stationary bootstrapping of the joint distribution of sum and maximum.     

Adaptive wavelet estimation of a function in an indirect regression model

We consider a nonparametric regression model where m noise-perturbed functions f ₁,…,f _m are randomly observed. For a fixed ν∈{1,…,m}, we want to estimate f _ν from the observations. To reach this goal, we develop an adaptive wavelet estimator based on a hard thresholding rule. Adopting the mean integrated squared error over Besov balls, we prove that it attains a sharp rate of convergence. Simulation results are reported to support our theoretical findings.     

Persistence and existence of stationary measures for a logistic growth model with predation

We consider a stochastic logistic growth model with a predation term, and a diffusive stochastic part with a power-type coefficient. We provide criteria for the persistence of the population and for the existence and uniqueness of a stationary measure. Furthermore, we perform a detailed study of the densities of the stationary measures resorting to the forward Kolmogorov equation. We compile our results in a stochastic bifurcation diagram, drawing comparisons with the corresponding deterministic model.     

Quasi-maximum exponential likelihood estimation for a non stationary GARCH(1,1) model

ABSTRACT

This article investigates a quasi-maximum exponential likelihood estimator(QMELE) for a non stationary generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic (GARCH(1,1)) model. Asymptotic normality of this estimator is derived under a non stationary condition. A simulation study and a real example are given to evaluate the performance of QMELE for this model.     

The locally Gaussian density estimator for multivariate data

It is well known that the Curse of Dimensionality causes the standard Kernel Density Estimator to break down quickly as the number of variables increases. In non-parametric regression, this effect is relieved in various ways, for example by assuming additivity or some other simplifying structure on the interaction between variables. This paper presents the Locally Gaussian Density Estimator (LGDE), which introduces a similar idea to the problem of density estimation. The LGDE is a new method for the non-parametric estimation of multivariate probability density functions. It is based on preliminary transformations of the marginal observation vectors towards standard normality, and a simplified local likelihood fit of the resulting distribution with standard normal marginals. The LGDE is introduced, and asymptotic theory is derived. In particular, it is shown that the LGDE converges at a speed that does not depend on the dimension. Examples using real and simulated data confirm that the new estimator performs very well on finite sample sizes.     

Volatility forecasting of financial time series using wavelet based exponential generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity model

Abstract

An improved forecasting model by merging two different computational models in predicting future volatility was proposed. The model integrates wavelet and EGARCH model where the pre-processing activity based on wavelet transform is performed with de-noising technique to eliminate noise in observed signal. The denoised signal is then feed into EGARCH model to forecast the volatility. The predictive capability of the proposed model is compared with the existing EGARCH model. The results show that the hybrid model has increased the accuracy of forecasting future volatility.