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1.
Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) have been labeled contaminants of concern due to their carcinogenic potential, insufficient toxicological data, environmental ubiquity, and inconsistencies in the composition of environmental mixtures. The Environmental Protection Agency is reevaluating current methods for assessing the toxicity of PAHs, including the assumption of toxic additivity in mixtures. This study was aimed at testing mixture interactions through in vitro cell culture experimentation, and modeling the toxicity using quantitative structure‐activity relationships (QSAR). Clone‐9 rat liver cells were used to analyze cellular proliferation, viability, and genotoxicity of 15 PAHs in single doses and binary mixtures. Tests revealed that many mixtures have nonadditive toxicity, but display varying mixture effects depending on the mixture composition. Many mixtures displayed antagonism, similar to other published studies. QSARs were then developed using the genetic function approximation algorithm to predict toxic activity both in single PAH congeners and in binary mixtures. Effective concentrations inhibiting 50% of the cell populations were modeled, with R2 = 0.90, 0.99, and 0.84, respectively. The QSAR mixture algorithms were then adjusted to account for the observed mixture interactions as well as the mixture composition (ratios) to assess the feasibility of QSARs for mixtures. Based on these results, toxic addition is improbable and therefore environmental PAH mixtures are likely to see nonadditive responses when complex interactions occur between components. Furthermore, QSAR may be a useful tool to help bridge these data gaps surrounding the assessment of human health risks that are associated with PAH exposures.  相似文献   

2.
《Risk analysis》2018,38(9):1944-1961
Following oil spills such as the Deepwater Horizon accident (DWH), contamination of seafood resources and possible increased health risks attributable to consumption of seafood in spill areas are major concerns. In this study, locally harvested finfish and shrimp were collected from research participants in southeast Louisiana and analyzed for polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs). PAHs are some of the most important chemicals of concern regarding oil‐spill‐contaminated seafood resources during and following oil spills. Some PAHs are considered carcinogens for risk assessment purposes, and currently, seven of these can be combined in lifetime cancer risk assessments using EPA approaches. Most PAHs were not detected in these samples (minimum detection limits ranged from 1.2 to 2.1 PPB) and of those that were detected, they were generally below 10 PPB. The pattern of detected PAHs suggested that the source of these chemicals in these seafood samples was not a result of direct contact with crude oil. Lifetime cancer risks were assessed using conservative assumptions and models in a probabilistic framework for the seven carcinogenic PAHs. Lifetime health risks modeled using this framework did not exceed a 1/10,000 cancer risk threshold. Conservative, health‐protective deterministic estimates of the levels of concern for PAH chemical concentration and seafood intake rates were above the concentrations and intake rates modeled under this probabilistic framework. Taken together, consumption of finfish and shrimp harvested from southeast Louisiana following the DWH does not pose unacceptable lifetime cancer risks from these seven carcinogenic PAHs even for the heaviest possible consumers.  相似文献   

3.
Risk-based cleanup goals or preliminary remediation goals (PRGs) are established at hazardous waste sites when contaminant concentrations in air, soil, surface water, or groundwater exceed specified acceptable risk levels. When derived in accordance with the Environmental Protection Agency's risk assessment guidance, the PRG is intended to represent the average contaminant concentration within an exposure unit area that is left on the site following remediation. The PRG, however, frequently has been used inconsistently at Superfund sites with a number of remediation decisions using the PRG as a not-to-exceed concentration (NTEC). Such misapplications could result in overly conservative and unnecessarily costly remedial actions. The PRG should be applied in remedial actions in the same manner in which it was generated. Statistical methods, such as Bower's Confidence Response Goal, and mathematical methods such as "iterative removal of hot spots," are available to assist in the development of NTECs that ensure the average postremediation contaminant concentration is at or below the PRG. These NTECs can provide the risk manager with a more practical cleanup goal. In addition, an acute PRG can be developed to ensure that contaminant concentrations left on-site following remediation are not so high as to pose an acute or short-term health risk if excessive exposure to small areas of the site should occur. A case study demonstrates cost savings of five to ten times associated with the more scientifically sound use of the PRG as a postremediation site average, and development of a separate NTEC and acute PRG based on the methods referenced in this article.  相似文献   

4.
Two-year chronic bioassays were conducted by using B6C3F1 female mice fed several concentrations of two different mixtures of coal tars from manufactured gas waste sites or benzo(a)pyrene (BaP). The purpose of the study was to obtain estimates of cancer potency of coal tar mixtures, by using conventional regulatory methods, for use in manufactured gas waste site remediation. A secondary purpose was to investigate the validity of using the concentration of a single potent carcinogen, in this case benzo(a)pyrene, to estimate the relative risk for a coal tar mixture. The study has shown that BaP dominates the cancer risk when its concentration is greater than 6,300 ppm in the coal tar mixture. In this case the most sensitive tissue site is the forestomach. Using low-dose linear extrapolation, the lifetime cancer risk for humans is estimated to be: Risk < 1.03 × 10−4 (ppm coal tar in total diet) + 240 × 10−4 (ppm BaP in total diet), based on forestomach tumors. If the BaP concentration in the coal tar mixture is less than 6,300 ppm, the more likely case, then lung tumors provide the largest estimated upper limit of risk, Risk < 2.55 × 10−4 (ppm coal tar in total diet), with no contribution of BaP to lung tumors. The upper limit of the cancer potency (slope factor) for lifetime oral exposure to benzo(a)pyrene is 1.2 × 10−3 per μg per kg body weight per day from this Good Laboratory Practice (GLP) study compared with the current value of 7.3 × 10−3 per μg per kg body weight per day listed in the U.S. EPA Integrated Risk Information System.  相似文献   

5.
L.Y. Xu  X. Shu 《Risk analysis》2014,34(4):670-682
Because of the high emissions of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) into the environment by the increasing number of vehicles in Beijing and the absorption of these PAHs onto particulates, the performance of a preliminary health risk assessment of the aggregate exposure to PAHs of urban citizens in daily life is very important. Urban dust can be used to examine the aggregation of atmospheric particulates from local pollution sources over a long time period and the direct exposure of the urban human population. The environment's correlative with clothing, dining, residing, and traveling in urban daily life was assessed using exposure‐receptor‐oriented analysis. The multipathway exposure model was used to simulate the lifetime exposure of a female citizen to PAHs in dust. All of the PAH concentrations in dust for each behavior and its correlative environment in Beijing were acceptable because all of the carcinogenic risks of PAHs in the dust were approximately 1.0 × 10–6. The dominant induced carcinogenic risks in the dust were Benzo(a)pyrene and Dibenzo(a,h)anthracene. The main carcinogenic risk routes for humans were dermal contact and oral intake, which contributed on average 99.78% of the risk. Indoor risk is especially important, as the decoration and height within the building were important impact factors for carcinogenic risk induced by indoor PAHs. For people living in an urban area, a healthy lifestyle includes less decoration per room, living on a low floor, wearing a respirator, and reducing exposed skin area when traveling.  相似文献   

6.
Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) that are released into the atmosphere may have health consequences that can be compounded by their nitro-PAH atmospheric transformation products. The available literature suggests that some of the atmospheric nitro-PAH daughter products may increase the overall environmental health risk associated with PAHs. Therefore, an important issue is whether there is merit in considering atmospheric transformation products of air toxins when conducting environmental health-risk analyses. To illustrate the above issue, a comparative analysis of the potential risk that may be imposed by PAHs and their daughter products was carried out for the Los Angeles Basin. The analysis consisted of first assessing the multimedia environmental concentration of selected PAHs and nitro-PAHs using a spatial-compartmental modeling approach coupled with available monitoring data. Multimedia concentrations were then used to estimate chemical media-specific mutagenic densities as well as average daily intake from multiple pathways, followed by cancer risk for the known carcinogens among the study chemicals. The analysis revealed that mutagenic densities of the nitro-PAH daughter products can significantly exceed those of the parent PAHs. The results of this study suggest that there is merit in further investigation of the potential contribution of nitro-PAHs to the overall environmental health risk associated with airborne PAHs.  相似文献   

7.
Due to the hydrophobic nature of synthetic based fluids (SBFs), drilling cuttings are not very dispersive in the water column and settle down close to the disposal site. Arsenic and copper are two important toxic heavy metals, among others, found in the drilling waste. In this article, the concentrations of heavy metals are determined using a steady state "aquivalence-based" fate model in a probabilistic mode. Monte Carlo simulations are employed to determine pore water concentrations. A hypothetical case study is used to determine the water quality impacts for two discharge options: 4% and 10% attached SBFs, which correspond to the best available technology option and the current discharge practice in the U.S. offshore. The exposure concentration ( CE ) is a predicted environmental concentration, which is adjusted for exposure probability and bioavailable fraction of heavy metals. The response of the ecosystem  ( RE )  is defined by developing an empirical distribution function of predicted no-effect concentration. The pollutants' pore water concentrations within the radius of 750 m are estimated and cumulative distributions of risk quotient  ( RQ = CE / RE )  are developed to determine the probability of RQ greater than 1.  相似文献   

8.
As a result of the Chernobyl nuclear power plant accident in 1986, large forested areas in Europe were contaminated by radionuclides. Extensive societal pressure has been exerted to decrease the radiation dose to the population and to the environment. Thus, in making abatement and remediation policy decisions not only economic costs, but also human and environmental risk assessment are desired. Forest remediation by organic layer removal, one of the most promising cleanup policies, is considered in this paper. Ecological risk assessment requires evaluation of the radionuclide distribution in forests. The FORESTPATH model(1,2) is used for predicting the radionuclide fate in forest compartments after deposition as well as for evaluating the application of the remedial policy. Time of intervention and radionuclide deposition profile was predicted as being crucial for the remediation efficiency. Risk assessment conducted for a critical group of forest users in Belarus shows that consumption of forest products (berries and mushrooms) leads to about 0.004% risk of a fatal cancer. Cost-benefit analysis for forest cleanup suggests that complete removal of organic layer is too expensive for application in Belarus.  相似文献   

9.
A strong inverse correlation was observed between the polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH) mass fraction desorbed, a surrogate measure of bioavailability, and relative carcinogenicity, as quantified by potency equivalency factors (PEFs), for two study sediments from the New York/New Jersey Harbor estuary. Because compounds with the highest toxicity, such as dibenz(a,h)anthracene and benzo(a)pyrene (BAP), also tended to be the least rapidly and least extensively desorbed, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) default guidance may dramatically overestimate risk from exposure to PAH-contaminated soils or sediments. A "relative risk index" (RRI) was developed to account for the combined effects of compound-specific bioavailability and toxic potency in estimating excess cancer risk. Using this approach, estimated excess cancer risk may be diminished by as much as a factor of 159 times versus default EPA guidance. Also, the hierarchy of estimated risk between study sediments and among treatment fractions of study sediments differed using the two approaches, implying that the default approach may inaccurately determine site clean-up priorities. The percentage contribution of each potentially carcinogenic priority PAH to total excess cancer risk was computed under various scenarios. In each case, the contribution of BAP to total excess cancer risk was remarkably invariable, for example, ranging from 48% to 52% in one sediment, and 44% to 54% in the other, over four different exposure durations. These results suggest that BAP may be an excellent indexing compound for gauging relative exposure risk across sediments. Other important contributors to total excess cancer risk were benz(a)anthracene and dibenz(a,h)anthracene. Together, these three compounds comprised nearly 90% of total excess cancer risk from all PAHs in every scenario. This integrated RRI approach may enable regulators to more accurately gauge relative risks and make more informed sediment management decisions.  相似文献   

10.
Adaptive Spatial Sampling of Contaminated Soil   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
Cox  Louis Anthony 《Risk analysis》1999,19(6):1059-1069

Suppose that a residential neighborhood may have been contaminated by a nearby abandoned hazardous waste site. The suspected contamination consists of elevated soil concentrations of chemicals that are also found in the absence of site-related contamination. How should a risk manager decide which residential properties to sample and which ones to clean? This paper introduces an adaptive spatial sampling approach which uses initial observations to guide subsequent search. Unlike some recent model-based spatial data analysis methods, it does not require any specific statistical model for the spatial distribution of hazards, but instead constructs an increasingly accurate nonparametric approximation to it as sampling proceeds. Possible cost-effective sampling and cleanup decision rules are described by decision parameters such as the number of randomly selected locations used to initialize the process, the number of highest-concentration locations searched around, the number of samples taken at each location, a stopping rule, and a remediation action threshold. These decision parameters are optimized by simulating the performance of each decision rule. The simulation is performed using the data collected so far to impute multiple probable values of unknown soil concentration distributions during each simulation run. This optimized adaptive spatial sampling technique has been applied to real data using error probabilities for wrongly cleaning or wrongly failing to clean each location (compared to the action that would be taken if perfect information were available) as evaluation criteria. It provides a practical approach for quantifying trade-offs between these different types of errors and expected cost. It also identifies strategies that are undominated with respect to all of these criteria.

  相似文献   

11.
Armand Maul 《Risk analysis》2014,34(9):1606-1617
Microbial risk assessment is dependent on several biological and environmental factors that affect both the exposure characteristics to the biological agents and the mechanisms of pathogenicity involved in the pathogen‐host relationship. Many exposure assessment studies still focus on the location parameters of the probability distribution representing the concentration of the pathogens and/or toxin. However, the mean or median by themselves are insufficient to evaluate the adverse effects that are associated with a given level of exposure. Therefore, the effects on the risk of disease of a number of factors, including the shape parameters characterizing the distribution patterns of the pathogen in their environment, were investigated. The statistical models, which were developed to provide a better understanding of the factors influencing the risk, highlight the role of heterogeneity and its consequences on the commonly used risk assessment paradigm. Indeed, the heterogeneity characterizing the spatial and temporal distribution of the pathogen and/or the toxin contained in the water or food consumed is shown to be a major factor that may influence the magnitude of the risk dramatically. In general, the risk diminishes with higher levels of heterogeneity. This scheme is totally inverted in the presence of a threshold in the dose‐response relationship, since heterogeneity will then have a tremendous impact, namely, by magnifying the risk when the mean concentration of pathogens is below the threshold. Moreover, the approach of this article may be useful for risk ranking analysis, regarding different exposure conditions, and may also lead to improved water and food quality guidelines.  相似文献   

12.
Exposure to Chlorination By-Products from Hot Water Uses   总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2  
Exposures to chlorination by-products (CBP) within public water supplies are multiroute in water. Cold water is primarily used for ingestion while a mixture of cold water and hot water is used for showering, bathing others, dish washing, etc. These latter two activities result in inhalation and dermal exposure. Heating water was observed to change the concentration of various CBP. An increase in the trihalomethanes (THM) concentrations and a decrease in the haloacetonitriles and halopropanones concentration, though an initial rise in the concentration of dichloropropanone, were observed. The extent of the increase in the THM is dependent on the chlorine residual present. Therefore, estimates of total exposure to CBP from public water supplies need to consider any changes in their concentration with different water uses. The overall THM exposures calculated using the THM concentration in heated water were 50% higher than those calculated using the THM concentration present in cold water. The estimated lifetime cancer risk associated with exposure to THM in water during the shower is therefore underestimated by 50% if the concentration of THM in cold water is used in the risk assessment.  相似文献   

13.
Population growth in California has increased the pressure to convert agricultural land to commercial, industrial, or residential uses. In the ensuing property transactions, buyers and sellers must address the presence of toxic materials in soils such as pesticides, several of which are known to the State of California to cause cancer under Proposition 65. While this statute does not specifically address soil contaminants, the potential scope of its enforcement is sufficiently broad that owners of former agricultural properties may be obliged to provide warning of exposure to potential buyers, occupants, or construction workers about exposure to residues in soil from pesticide applications. However, Proposition 65 provides no guidance on how to assess exposures to chemicals in soil. The U.S. EPA Risk Assessment Guidance for Superfund (RAGS) provides a method for assessing soil-related exposure pathways that is consistent with the intent of Proposition 65. Using this approach, we have calculated the lifetime average concentrations of DDT in soil corresponding to the no-significant-risk level stipulated under Proposition 65 (1 × 10−5) for a hypothetical residential exposure scenario. The concentration of DDT in soil corresponding to a no-significant-risk ranges from 7.9-18.8 mg/kg, depending upon which exposure pathways are deemed to be complete for residential land use. It is argued that Proposition 65 forces the assessment and possible cleanup of such a situation through the threat of creating a health risk perception that could affect the market value of a property.  相似文献   

14.
Estimation of Unit Risk for Coke Oven Emissions   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
In 1984, based on epidemiological data on cohorts of coke oven workers, USEPA estimated a unit risk for lung cancer associated with continuous exposure from birth to 1 pg/m3 of coke oven emissions, of 6.2 × This risk assessment was based on information on the cohorts available through 1966. Follow-up of these cohorts has now been extended to 1982 and, moreover, individual job histories, which were not available in 1984, have been constructed. In this study, lung cancer mortality in these cohorts of coke oven workers with extended follow-up was analyzed using standard techniques of survival analysis and a new approach based on the two stage clonal expansion model of carcinogenesis. The latter approach allows the explicit consideration of detailed patterns of exposure of each individual in the cohort. The analyses used the extended follow-up data through 1982 and the detailed job histories now available. Based on these analyses, the best estimate of unit risk is 1.5 × with 95% confidence interval = 1.2 × 10-"1.8 X  相似文献   

15.
Risk Characterization of Methyl tertiary Butyl Ether (MTBE) in Tap Water   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
Methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE) can enter surface water and groundwater through wet atmospheric deposition or as a result of fuel leaks and spills. About 30% of the U.S. population lives in areas where MTBE is in regular use. Ninety-five percent of this population is unlikely to be exposed to MTBE in tap water at concentrations exceeding 2 ppb, and most will be exposed to concentrations that are much lower and may be zero. About 5% of this population may be exposed to higher levels of MTBE in tap water, resulting from fuel tank leaks and spills into surface or groundwater used for potable water supplies. This paper describes the concentration ranges found and anticipated in surface and groundwater, and estimates the distribution of doses experienced by humans using water containing MTBE to drink, prepare food, and shower/bathe. The toxic properties (including potency) of MTBE when ingested, inhaled, and in contact with the skin are summarized. Using a range of human toxic potency values derived from animal studies, margins of exposure (MOE) associated with alternative chronic exposure scenarios are estimated to range from 1700 to 140,000. Maximum concentrations of MTBE in tap water anticipated not to cause adverse health effects are determined to range from 700 to 14,000 ppb. The results of this analysis demonstrate that no health risks are likely to be associated with chronic and subchronic human exposures to MTBE in tap water. Although some individuals may be exposed to very high concentrations of MTBE in tap water immediately following a localized spill, these exposures are likely to be brief in duration due to large-scale dilution and rapid volatilization of MTBE, the institution of emergency response and remediation measures to minimize human exposures, and the low taste and odor thresholds of MTBE which ensure that its presence in tap water is readily detected at concentrations well below the threshold for human injury.  相似文献   

16.
Methods for evaluating the hazards associated with noncancer responses with epidemiologic data are considered. The methods for noncancer risk assessment have largely been developed for experimental data, and are not always suitable for the more complex structure of epidemiologic data. In epidemiology, the measurement of the response and the exposure is often either continuous or dichotomous. For a continuous noncancer response modeled with multiple regression, a variety of endpoints may be examined: (1) the concentration associated with absolute or relative decrements in response; (2) a threshold concentration associated with no change in response; and (3) the concentration associated with a particular added risk of impairment. For a dichotomous noncancer response modeled with logistic regression, concentrations associated with specified added/extra risk or with a threshold responses may be estimated. No-observed-effect concentrations may also be estimated for categorizations of exposures for both continuous and dichotomous responses but these may depend on the arbitrary categories chosen. Respiratory function in miners exposed to coal dust is used to illustrate these methods.  相似文献   

17.
Annual concentrations of toxic air contaminants are of primary concern from the perspective of chronic human exposure assessment and risk analysis. Despite recent advances in air quality monitoring technology, resource and technical constraints often impose limitations on the availability of a sufficient number of ambient concentration measurements for performing environmental risk analysis. Therefore, sample size limitations, representativeness of data, and uncertainties in the estimated annual mean concentration must be examined before performing quantitative risk analysis. In this paper, we discuss several factors that need to be considered in designing field-sampling programs for toxic air contaminants and in verifying compliance with environmental regulations. Specifically, we examine the behavior of SO2, TSP, and CO data as surrogates for toxic air contaminants and as examples of point source, area source, and line source-dominated pollutants, respectively, from the standpoint of sampling design. We demonstrate the use of bootstrap resampling method and normal theory in estimating the annual mean concentration and its 95% confidence bounds from limited sampling data, and illustrate the application of operating characteristic (OC) curves to determine optimum sample size and other sampling strategies. We also outline a statistical procedure, based on a one-sided t-test, that utilizes the sampled concentration data for evaluating whether a sampling site is compliance with relevant ambient guideline concentrations for toxic air contaminants.  相似文献   

18.
Tetrachloroethylene (PCE) is a commonly used organic solvent and a suspected human carcinogen, reportedly transferred to human breast milk following inhalation exposure. Transfer of PCE to milk may represent a threat to the nursing infant. A physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model was developed to quantitatively assess the transfer of inhaled PCE into breast milk and the consequent exposure of the nursing infant. The model was validated in lactating rats. Lactating Sprague-Dawley female rats were exposed via inhalation to PCE at concentrations ranging from 20-1000 ppm, and then returned to their nursing, 10- to 11-day-old pups. Tetrachloroethylene concentrations in the air, blood, milk, and tissue were determined by gas chromatography and compared to model predictions. The model described the distribution of inhaled PCE in maternal blood and milk, as well as the nursed pup's gastrointestinal tract, blood, and tissue. Several computer simulations of PCE distribution kinetics in exhaled air, blood, and milk of exposed human subjects were run and compared with limited human data available from the literature. It is concluded that the PBPK model successfully described the concentration of PCE in both lactating rats and humans. Although predictions vs. observations were good, the model slightly underpredicted the peak whole pup PCE concentration and underpredicted systemic clearance of PCE from the pup.  相似文献   

19.
Uncertainty of environmental concentrations is calculated with the regional multimedia exposure model of EUSES 1.0 by considering probability input distributions for aqueous solubility, vapor pressure, and octanol-water partition coefficient, K(ow). Only reliable experimentally determined data are selected from available literature for eight reference chemicals representing a wide substance property spectrum. Monte Carlo simulations are performed with uniform, triangular, and log-normal input distributions to assess the influence of the choice of input distribution type on the predicted concentration distributions. The impact of input distribution shapes on output variance exceeds the effect on the output mean by one order of magnitude. Both are affected by influence and uncertainty (i.e., variance) of the input variable as well. Distributional shape has no influence when the sensitivity function of the respective parameter is perfectly linear. For nonlinear relationships, overlap of probability mass of input distribution with influential ranges of the parameter space is important. Differences in computed output distribution are greatest when input distributions differ in the most influential parameter range.  相似文献   

20.
The leaching of organotin (OT) heat stabilizers from polyvinyl chloride (PVC) pipes used in residential drinking water systems may affect the quality of drinking water. These OTs, principally mono- and di-substituted species of butyltins and methyltins, are a potential health concern because they belong to a broad class of compounds that may be immune, nervous, and reproductive system toxicants. In this article, we develop probability distributions of U.S. population exposures to mixtures of OTs encountered in drinking water transported by PVC pipes. We employed a family of mathematical models to estimate OT leaching rates from PVC pipe as a function of both surface area and time. We then integrated the distribution of estimated leaching rates into an exposure model that estimated the probability distribution of OT concentrations in tap waters and the resulting potential human OT exposures via tap water consumption. Our study results suggest that human OT exposures through tap water consumption are likely to be considerably lower than the World Health Organization (WHO) "safe" long-term concentration in drinking water (150 μg/L) for dibutyltin (DBT)—the most toxic of the OT considered in this article. The 90th percentile average daily dose (ADD) estimate of 0.034 ± 2.92 × 10−4μg/kg day is approximately 120 times lower than the WHO-based ADD for DBT (4.2 μg/kg day).  相似文献   

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