Trajectories of Unintended Fertility

Having an unintended birth is strongly associated with the likelihood of having later unintended births. We use detailed longitudinal data from the Add Health Study (N = 8300) to investigate whether a host of measured sociodemographic, personality, and psychosocial characteristics select women into this “trajectory” of unintended childbearing. While some measured characteristics and aspects of the unfolding life course are related to unintended childbearing, explicitly modeling these effects does not greatly attenuate the association of an unintended birth with a subsequent one. Next, we statistically control for unmeasured time-invariant covariates that affect all birth intervals, and again find that the association of an unintended birth with subsequent ones remains strong. This persistent, strong association may be the direct result of experiencing an earlier unintended birth. We propose several mechanisms that might explain this strong association.     

Unintended Population Consequences of Policies

Unintended population consequences of policies stem from three sources: (1) A policy overshoots its original goal; (2) different policies conflict, so that the implementation of one policy inhibits implementation of another policy; (3) negative consequences of a policy are unforeseen, or are anticipated but judged unlikely to be severe or considered less important than the positive aims of the policy. Examples from Singapore, South Africa, Italy, the U.S., and the former Soviet Union are discussed.     

Fertility Following an Unintended First Birth

Research on unintended fertility tends to focus on births as isolated events. This article expands previous research by examining the relationship between early unintended childbearing and subsequent fertility dynamics in the United States. Data from the 2002 National Survey of Family Growth show that 27.5% of mothers report an unintended first birth. We use event history methods to show that these women are significantly more likely than women with an intended first birth to have an unintended second birth than to have either no second birth or an intended second birth, net of sociodemographic characteristics. An unintended first birth also increases the risk of having an unintended third birth relative to no birth or an intended birth, independent of the intendedness of the second birth. We conclude that early unintended fertility is a strong signal of high risk for subsequent unintended fertility.     

State Abortion Policy and Unintended Birth Rates in the United States

In this paper, we put forth the view that the potential for urbanization economies increases with interaction opportunities. From that premise follow three fundamental properties that an agglomeration index should possess: (1) to increase with the concentration of population and conform to the Pigou–Dalton transfer principle; (2) to increase with the absolute size of constituent population interaction zones; and (3) to be consistent in aggregation. Limiting our attention to pairwise interactions, and invoking the space-analytic foundations of local labor market area (LLMA) delineation, we develop an index of agglomeration based on the number of interaction opportunities per capita in a geographical area. This leads to Arriaga’s mean city-population size, which is the mathematical expectation of the size of the LLMA in which a randomly chosen individual lives. The index has other important properties. It does not require an arbitrary population threshold to separate urban from non-urban areas. It is easily adapted to situations where an LLMA lies partly outside the geographical area for which agglomeration is measured. Finally, it can be satisfactorily approximated when data is truncated or aggregated into size-classes. We apply the index to the Spanish NUTS III regions, and evaluate its performance by examining its correlation with the location quotients of several knowledge intensive business services known to be highly sensitive to urbanization economies. The Arriaga index’s correlations are clearly stronger than those of either the classical degree of urbanization or the Hirshman–Herfindahl concentration index.     

Great Expectations: The Unintended Consequences of Educational Choices

Human capital is invariably found to be an important explanatory variable of various proxies for well being (WB), i.e. income, happiness, job and life satisfaction, and health status. Nevertheless, to date few systematic efforts have been made to explain its various interconnected functions. The U-shaped age-SWB relation found in many empirical studies suggests that investigating the pattern of different measures of WB over people’s life cycles may reveal important information and provide useful insights into the principal mechanisms that connect human capital and WB. In this paper, I explore data drawn from the Survey on Household Income and Wealth (SHIW) conducted by the Bank of Italy, which is a rich source of information on people’s socioeconomic and educational backgrounds, educational and skill mismatches in the workplace, and various measures of WB such as income, happiness, job satisfaction, and health status. I adopt a novel approach based on the idea that one should look at the overall contribution of education to well being within people’s life-cycles. The tentative explanations of my empirical findings are: (a) more educated people and people with vocational educations experience wide mismatches in their aspirations and expectations early in their adult lives; (b) these mismatches are largely confined to the labour market; and (c) the curvature of the U-shaped age-happiness relationship depends on the level and type of education. The suggested interpretation of these results is that education affects both people’s expectations and the way they react to unfulfilled aspirations.     

Unintended pregnancy and intimate partner violence around pregnancy in a population-based study

BackgroundIntimate partner violence (IPV) and unintended pregnancy are public health issues that can affect the health and well-being of women and their children. However, the relationship between IPV and women's ability to control their fertility has not been adequately explored.AimTo investigate the association between unintended pregnancy and emotional or physical violence perpetrated by partners around pregnancy.MethodsA population-based study was undertaken, recruiting women (n = 779) at the hospital obstetric departments and gathering social and family data. IPV was diagnosed by using the Index of Spouse Abuse (ISA). Data were gathered by trained midwives in 15 public hospitals in southern Spain and multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed.FindingsThe pregnancy was reported to be unintended by 118 (15.1%) of the study population. Unintended pregnancy was significantly associated with: physical and/or emotional IPV around pregnancy, age, marital status, cohabitation, educational level, and employment status. After adjusting for socio-demographic characteristics, emotional IPV around pregnancy was significantly associated with an unintended pregnancy (AOR = 2.5; 95% CI = 1.5–4.3). Being in a non-committed relationship was a risk factor (AOR = 3.5; 95% CI = 1.8–6.1) and being in employment a protective factor (AOR = 0.4; 95% CI = 0.2–0.8) for an unintended pregnancy.ConclusionWomen who report an unintended pregnancy may be experiencing emotional IPV. The risk of emotional IPV is higher if women reporting an unintended pregnancy are in a committed relationship, married, or in employment. A better understanding of the relationship between unintended pregnancy and violence can aid midwives about potential reproductive health risk factors associated with abuse.     

Unintended consequences of Immigration Reform: Discrimination and hispanic employment

The record-keeping requirements of the Immigration Reform and Control Act(IRCA), and fines for illegal employment, may induce employers to discriminate against foreign-appearing workers. The General Accounting Office (GAO) reported widespread IRCA-related discrimination but did not link reported discriminatory practices to discriminatory employment behavior. We analyze the GAO’s random survey and, controlling for selectivity effects, demonstrate that employers who report discriminatory practices actually employ fewer Hispanics. Although the measured reduction of Hispanic employment due to IRCA is fairly small, this finding parallels research alerting us to adverse consequences of a law that so far has achieved few of its intended effects.     

Unintended effects of poverty programmes on childbearing in less developed countries: experimental evidence from Latin America

Because conditional cash transfer (CCT) programmes (which make payments to poor households, conditional on their behaviour) potentially affect both household resource levels and parental preferences for quality vs. quantity of children, they may have unintended consequences for fertility. We use panel data from experimental CCT programmes in three Latin American countries to assess the unintended impact of these programmes on childbearing. Our findings, based on difference-in-difference models, show that the programme in Honduras, which inadvertently created large incentives for childbearing, may have raised fertility by between 2 and 4 percentage points. The CCT programmes in the two other countries, Mexico and Nicaragua, did not have the same unintended incentives for childbearing, and in these countries we found no net impact on fertility. Subsequent analysis examined several potential mechanisms by which fertility in Honduras may have been raised but was not able to identify a primary mechanism with the available data.     

Unintended effects of poverty programmes on childbearing in less developed countries: Experimental evidence from Latin America

Because conditional cash transfer (CCT) programmes (which make payments to poor households, conditional on their behaviour) potentially affect both household resource levels and parental preferences for quality vs. quantity of children, they may have unintended consequences for fertility. We use panel data from experimental CCT programmes in three Latin American countries to assess the unintended impact of these programmes on childbearing. Our findings, based on difference-in-difference models, show that the programme in Honduras, which inadvertently created large incentives for childbearing, may have raised fertility by between 2 and 4 percentage points. The CCT programmes in the two other countries, Mexico and Nicaragua, did not have the same unintended incentives for childbearing, and in these countries we found no net impact on fertility. Subsequent analysis examined several potential mechanisms by which fertility in Honduras may have been raised but was not able to identify a primary mechanism with the available data.     

Death at the Border: Efficacy and Unintended Consequences of US Immigration Control Policy

This article assesses the efficacy of the strategy of immigration control implemented by the US government since 1993 in reducing illegal entry attempts, and documents some of the unintended consequences of this strategy, especially a sharp increase in mortality among unauthorized migrants along certain segments of the Mexico–US border. The available data suggest that the current strategy of border enforcement has resulted in rechanneling flows of unauthorized migrants to more hazardous areas, raising fees charged by people‐smugglers, and discouraging unauthorized migrants already in the US from returning to their places of origin. However, there is no evidence that the strategy is deterring or preventing significant numbers of new illegal entries, particularly given the absence of a serious effort to curtail employment of unauthorized migrants through worksite enforcement. An expanded temporary worker program, selective legalization of unauthorized Mexican workers residing in the United States, and other proposals under consideration by the US and Mexican governments are unlikely to reduce migrant deaths resulting from the current strategy of border enforcement.     

HIV and Unintended Fertility in Sub-Saharan Africa: Multilevel Predictors of Mistimed and Unwanted Fertility Among HIV-Positive Women

Population Research and Policy Review - Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) has a disproportionate burden of both unintended fertility and HIV infection, but the relationship between these two reproductive...     

Unintended consequences of US immigration policy: explaining the post-1965 surge from Latin America

Immigration reforms in the United States initiated in the 1960s are widely thought to have opened the door to mass immigration from Asia and Latin America by eliminating past discriminatory policies. While this may be true for Asians, it is not the case for Latin Americans, who faced more restrictions to legal migration after 1965 than before. The boom in Latin American migration occurred in spite of rather than because of changes in US immigration law. In this article we describe how restrictions placed on the legal entry of Latin Americans, and especially Mexicans, set off a chain of events that in the ensuing decades had the paradoxical effect of producing more rather than fewer Latino immigrants. We offer an explanation for how and why Latinos in the United States, in just 40 years, increased from 9.6 million people and 5 percent of the population to 51 million people and 16 percent of the population, and why so many are now present without authorization.     

Midlife Women Online: Evaluation of an Internet-Based Program to Prevent Unintended Pregnancy & STIs

Background: Midlife women are an underserved population in the areas of unintended pregnancy and STI prevention yet remain at risk for both health conditions. Methods: A randomized controlled trial of an Internet-based multimedia program to reduce risk of unintended pregnancy and STIs among midlife women was conducted with 164 women ages 40–55 years of age. Results: Women in the treatment condition compared to the control condition reported significant gains in attitudes, self-efficacy, and behavioral intentions at posttest. Conclusion: Interventions specifically targeted to midlife women can impact constructs known to reduce risk. Implications for future research and intervention development are presented.     

Top Ten News in 2013 Selected by NHFPC

正On January 7,2014,the State Council Information Offi ce held a press conference,at which,Mao Qun’an,news spokesman and director of Department of Publicity of National Health and Family Planning Commission(NHFPC)announced the Top Ten News for China’s Health and Family Planning in 2013selected by NHFPC.     

Overview on Progress of Key Reform Areas in China in 2013

Currently,China is in a critical period of economic and social transformation.Reform is the key to maintain stable growth and stimulate vitality.Since the beginning of this year,various kinds of reforms in key areas have progressed intensively and     

Statistical Communique on Development of Disabled Persons Undertaking in China in 2013

正In 2013,the sixth national congress of China Disabled Persons'Federation(CDPF)was convened successfully,which had provided important idealogical and organizational guarantees for promoting innovation and development at a new starting point.Under the effective leadership and guidance of the Party Central Committee and the State Council,Party and government departments had attached great importance,CDPF worked hard,all     

Discovering Diverse Mechanisms of Migration: The Mexico–US Stream 1970–2000

Migrants to the United States are a diverse population. This diversity, identified in various migration theories, is overlooked in empirical applications that describe a typical narrative for an average migrant. Using the Mexican Migration Project data from about 17,000 first‐time migrants from Mexico to the US between 1970 and 2000, this study employs cluster analysis to identify four types of migrants with distinct configurations of characteristics. Each migrant type corresponds to a specific theoretical account and becomes prevalent in a specific period, depending on economic, social, and political conditions in Mexico and the US. Around the period when each migrant type becomes prevalent, a corresponding theory is also developed.     

Harmony in the World 2013: The Ideal and the Reality

Social Indicators Research - Many global indicators rank countries according to valued goods such as freedom, wealth, or happiness, but they all share the same flaw: they neglect the importance of...