How Many People Can China Support?

MuchhasbeensaidofChina'spopulationproblem.Currelltly,thenationhas1.25billiollpeople,themostpopulouscountryintheworld.Mostexpertsagreethatintileyearstocome,itspopulationwillcontinuetogrowuntil2050,whenazerogrowthrateispredicted.Bythen,thenation'spopulationwillreachanunprecedelltedlevelfI.6billion.Tilequestionarisesllaturallyfhow1llanypeoplecanChinareallysustain?WillChinabeoverwhelmedsomedaybyover-population?Awidelyheldviewarguesthatatmaximum,ChinacansustainI.6billionpeople.Thisviewwasfirstp…     

The 1990 U.S. census: how good is good enough?

The 1990 US census is likely to be the most accurate in the nation's history, but it may miss 2 or 3 million people, most of them poor and many of them black or Hispanic. Because the population census is the basis for political apportionment and determines the allocation of a growing share of federal funds to localities and public programs, undercoverage is of great concern to cities, states, and the groups most affected. The statistical methods developed to measure the extent of undercounting in the census have become increasingly reliable, but the official census count has never before been adjusted on the basis of these methods. This article describes plans for the 1990 census and examines a growing controversy over adjustment for an undercount.     

Incarcerating death: Mortality in U.S. state correctional facilities, 1985–1998

Using data from the U.S. Bureau of Justice Statistics and Census Bureau, I estimate death rates of working-age prisoners and nonprisoners by sex and race. Incarceration was more detrimental to females in comparison to their male counterparts in the period covered by this study. White male prisoners had higher death rates than white males who were not in prison. Black male prisoners, however, consistently exhibited lower death rates than black male nonprisoners did. Additionally, the findings indicate that while the relative difference in mortality levels of white and black males was quite high outside of prison, it essentially disappeared in prison. Notably, removing deaths caused by firearms and motor vehicles in the nonprison population accounted for some of the mortality differential between black prisoners and nonprisoners. The death rates of the other groups analyzed suggest that prison is an unhealthy environment; yet, prison appears to be a healthier place than the typical environment of the nonincarcerated black male population. These findings suggest that firearms and motor vehicle accidents do not sufficiently explain the higher death rates of black males, and they indicate that a lack of basic healthcare may be implicated in the death rates of black males not incarcerated.     

U.S. population in the 21st century: Which scenario is reasonable?

A major Census Bureau study released in January 1989 has evoked renewed warnings in the media and among some population analysts that the U.S. faces population decline in the next century if it does not increase fertility and/or raise immigration. The report's middle scenario rests on an assumed future total fertility rate (TFR) of 1.8, life expectancy of 81.2 years, and net immigration of 500,000 annually. These mid-range assumptions would yield a United States population of 268 million by 2000, peaking at 302 million in 2040 and falling to 292 million by 2080. Questionable assumptions in the report's most likely scenario are discussed. These are:

1. that immigrants bear children at the same rate as their equivalent age and racial group in the United States population.
2. that the high TFR of Hispanics will not raise the overall 1.8 TFR foreseen for whites as the Hispanic proportion of the white population continues to grow.
3. that net yearly immigration will fall to 575,000 in 1990 and 500,000 by 2000. The Census Bureau's "high" assumption of 800,000 net yearly may be more realistic.

The report's low growth scenario projects future population size that is more reassuring than alarming: 264 million in 2000, rising to 288 million in 2030, and falling to 266 million in 2080. Thus, in ninety years the United States would still have 20 million more people than now. While some fear that such slow growth will lower United States influence and bring labor shortages and an aging population, the nation's quality of life would be less at risk with a population of 266 million than with one approaching the one-half billion projected by the Census report's high estimates.     

U.S. Immigrants’ labor market adjustment: Additional Human capital investment and Earnings Growth

New Immigrant Survey-Pilot data are used to address the long-standing debate over whether immigrants to the United States assimilate economically. Using panel data and an individual fixed-effect specification, I find evidence indicating rapid economic assimilation, on the order of an average increase in earnings of 12%-13% during the 12-month survey period. Results indicate partial support for Duleep and Regets' Immigrant Human Capital Investment (IHCI) model, indicating an inverse relationship between initial earnings and earnings growth and showing some evidence of the expected interaction between skill transferability and skill level when predicting human capital investment decisions. Having more years of education, English proficiency, and lower earnings at the baseline are associated with a higher probability of enrolling informal school in the United States. Overall, findings suggest substantial economic integration within the first year after establishing permanent residency.     

Comments on Daniel A. Seiver's ‘Recent fertility in Mexico: Measurement and Interpretation.’

In a recent article in this Journal,¹Daniel A. Seiver concludes that ‘fertility’ in Mexico did not decline between 1960 and 1970. His conclusion is based primarily on an increase in the child-woman ratio from 725 per 1,000 in 1960 to 762 in 1970. Seiver simply asserts that this increase cannot be completely explained by declining infant mortality and under-enumeration. ² Ibid, p 343. . ³ Ibid, p 351.      

Educational selectivity in U.S. Immigration: How do immigrants compare to those left behind?

Current immigration research has revealed little about how immigrants compare to those who do not migrate. Although most scholars agree that migrants are not random samples of their home countries' populations, the direction and degree of educational selectivity is not fully understood. This study of 32 U.S. immigrant groups found that although nearly all immigrants are more educated than those who remain in their home countries, immigrants vary substantially in their degree of selectivity, depending upon the origin country and the timing of migration. Uncovering patterns of immigrant selectivity reveals the fallacy in attributing immigrants' characteristics to national groups as a whole and may help explain socioeconomic differences among immigrant groups in the United States.     

Still Trapped in the U.S. Media’s Closet: Representations of Gender-Variant,Pre-Adolescent Children

Many studies have examined representations of gay, lesbian, bisexual, and transgender (LGBT) people in the U.S. media. Yet they have centered on portrayals of adults or teenagers. This investigation considered a potential LGBT population that has been neglected in media research, namely gender-variant, preadolescent children. Surveying the U.S. media at large but with an emphasis on television, the article reveals that gender-creative youth are nearly invisible. When depictions of gender-variant kids do appear, they often focus on either children who express extreme gender dysphoria or in some way signify the “tragic queer” motif (or both). The implications of these findings are discussed.     

User Beware: Concerning Findings from the Post 2011–2012 U.S. Internal Revenue Service Migration Data

Population Research and Policy Review - The U.S. Internal Revenue Service (IRS) makes publicly and freely available period migration data at the state and county levels. Among their uses, these...     

Coming to stay: An analysis of the U.S. Census question on immigrants’ year of arrival

Using the New Immigrant Survey Pilot, we compare answers to the census question on year of arrival in the United States with answers to questions about the dates and durations of earlier U.S. trips. We show that the year identified by the census does not correspond to the year of either the first or the last U.S. trip. Because many immigrants enter and leave the United States several times before becoming legal immigrants, the census question produces estimates of U.S. experience that are quite different from those produced by direct questions about trip durations.     

China Commemorates T.R.Malthus

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The Benefits of Educational Attainment for U.S. Adult Mortality: Are they Contingent on the Broader Environment?

The growing recognition that educational attainment is one of the strongest preventive factors for adult health and longevity has fueled an interest in educational attainment as a population health strategy. However, less attention has been given to identifying social, economic, and behavioral resources that may moderate the health and longevity benefits of education. We draw on theories of resource substitution and multiplication to examine the extent to which the education–mortality association is contingent on other resources (marriage, employment, income, healthy lifestyles). We use data on adults aged 30–84 in the 1997–2006 National Health Interview Survey Linked Mortality File and estimate discrete-time event history models stratified by gender (N = 146,558; deaths = 10,399). We find that the mortality benefits of education are generally largest for adults—especially women—who have other resources such as employment and marriage, supporting the theory of resource multiplication. Nonetheless, our results also imply that other resources can potentially attenuate the mortality disadvantages (advantages) associated with low (high) levels of education. The findings suggest that efforts to improve population health and longevity by raising education levels should be augmented with strategies that assure widespread access to social, economic, and behavioral resources.     

Trends in U.S. adult chronic disease mortality, 1960–1999: age,period, and cohort variations

In this paper, I examine temporal changes in U.S. adult mortality by chronic disease cause of death and by sex over a 40-year period in the second half of the twentieth century. I apply age-period-cohort (APC) analyses that combine conventional approaches and a new method of model estimation to simultaneously account for age, period, and cohort variations in mortality rates for four leading causes of deaths, including heart disease, stroke, lung cancer, and breast cancer. The results show that large reductions in mortality since the late 1960s continued well into the late 1990s and that these reductions were predominately contributed by cohort effects. Cohort effects are found to differ by specific causes of death examined, but they generally show substantial survival improvements. Implications of these results are discussed with regard to demographic theories of mortality reductions, differential cohort accumulation of health capital and lifetime exposures to socioeconomic and behavioral risk factors, and period changes in diagnostic techniques and medical treatment.     

Population change and farm dependence: Temporal and spatial variation in the U.S. great plains, 1900–2000

I investigate the relationship between county population change and farm dependence in the Great Plains region during the twentieth century, using spatial data analysis techniques. This research is rooted in a long-standing sociological and demographic interest in population responses to economic transitions and informs the theoretical understanding of urbanization processes. Using census and environmental data, the analysis challenges earlier assertions of a simple transition in the relationship between farm dependence and population change that accompanied modern technological advancements, namely tractors (the mechanization thesis). Rather than observing the proposed positive-to-negative shift, study results show a negative association throughout the pre- and post-mechanization periods. Partial support is found if the thesis is revised to consider the relationship between population change and the change in farm dependence rather than the level of farm dependence. Findings show mixed support for an alternative argument that nonfarm industries moderate the influence of farm dependence (the industry complex thesis). In contrast to earlier applications of the thesis, industrial relations in the Great Plains context are characterized by specialization rather than cooperation.