Household migration as a livelihood adaptation in response to a natural disaster: Nicaragua and Hurricane Mitch

This study uses data drawn from the Nicaragua Living Standards and Measurement Study Survey to examine international livelihood migrations from Nicaragua in the years surrounding the rapid-onset Hurricane Mitch event of 1998. The likelihood of an international livelihood migration occurring between the years 1996 and 2001 is modeled utilizing discrete-time event history analysis. While findings indicate no influence of Hurricane Mitch on likelihood of livelihood migration, the Mitch event is associated with increased migrant selectivity according to past household migration experience for migrations to Costa Rica, suggesting these migrations to be livelihood adaptations of those with high capability in the form of access to migrant social networks. In addition, the Mitch event is found to be associated with decreased likelihood of migration by small business owners. This finding is interpreted as reflecting business owning households choosing to forego sending migrants to instead have ‘all hands on deck’ to assist with business operations.     

Disaster vulnerability,displacement, and infectious disease: Nicaragua and Hurricane Mitch

Population and Environment - Research conducted among socially vulnerable populations caught in the paths of natural disasters represents the forefront of our understanding the health-related...     

Demography of disaster: Population estimates after hurricane Andrew

Hurricane Andrew blasted through the southern tip of Florida in August 1992, damaging or destroying tens of thousands of homes and forcing hundreds of thousands of persons to move at least temporarily to different places of residence. The hurricane not only disrupted the lives of many Floridians, but destroyed the statistical basis for producing local population estimates in South Florida as well. These estimates are used for many types of decision-making, from the distribution of state revenue-sharing dollars to choosing sites for fast-food restaurants. This article describes the estimation problems created by the hurricane and how those problems were resolved through the use of existing data sources and the collection of new types of data. It closes with a discussion of several conceptual, methodological and procedural issues that will have to be faced in virtually any attempt to estimate the demographic consequences of natural disasters.An earlier version of this paper was presented at the 1994 annual meeting of the Population Association of America, Miami, Florida, USA.     

Going home after Hurricane Katrina: Determinants of return migration and changes in affected areas

This article examines the decision of Hurricane Katrina evacuees to return to their pre-Katrina areas and documents how the composition of the Katrina-affected region changed over time. Using data from the Current Population Survey, we show that an evacuee’s age, family income, and the severity of damage in an evacuee’s county of origin are important determinants of whether an evacuee returned during the first year after the storm. Blacks were less likely to return than whites, but this difference is primarily related to the geographical pattern of storm damage rather than to race per se. The difference between the composition of evacuees who returned and the composition of evacuees who did not return is the primary force behind changes in the composition of the affected areas in the first two years after the storm. Katrina is associated with substantial shifts in the racial composition of the affected areas (namely, a decrease in the percentage of residents who are black) and an increasing presence of Hispanics. Katrina is also associated with an increase in the percentage of older residents, a decrease in the percentage of residents with low income/education, and an increase in the percentage of residents with high income/education.     

(Un)natural disaster: vulnerability,long-distance displacement,and the extended geography of neighborhood distress and attainment after Katrina

After Hurricane Katrina, socioeconomically vulnerable populations were slow to return to their poor and segregated pre-disaster neighborhoods. Yet, very little is known about the quality of their post-disaster neighborhoods. While vulnerable groups rarely escape neighborhood poverty, some Katrina evacuees showed signs of neighborhood improvement. The current study investigates this puzzle and the significance of long-distance moves for neighborhood change among participants in the Resilience in the Survivors of Katrina Project. Seven hundred low-income, mostly minority mothers in community college in New Orleans before Katrina were tracked across the country a year and a half later. The findings show that respondents’ immediate and extended neighborhoods and metropolitan areas after Katrina were less disadvantaged, less organizationally isolated, and more racially and ethnically diverse compared to their pre-hurricane environments, and to the environments of those staying or returning home. Counterfactual analyses showed that more than within-neighborhood changes over time, between-neighborhood mobility and long-distance migration decreased respondents’ exposures to distress in their neighborhood, extended geographic area, and metropolitan area.     

Population recovery in New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina: exploring the potential role of stage migration in migration systems

In this research brief, we explore how places affected by natural disasters recover their populations through indirect, or “stage,” migration. Specifically, we consider the idea that post-disaster impediments (e.g., housing and property damage) in disaster-affected areas spawn migration flows toward and, over time, to disaster-affected areas through intermediary destinations. Taking as our case Orleans Parish over a 5-year period after Hurricane Katrina, we show that stage migration accounted for up to about one-fourth of population recovery. We close by discussing the implications, limitations, and potential extensions of our work.     

Recovery migration to the City of New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina: a migration systems approach

Hurricane Katrina’s effect on the population of the City of New Orleans provides a model of how severe weather events, which are likely to increase in frequency and strength as the climate warms, might affect other large coastal cities. Our research focuses on changes in the migration system—defined as the system of ties between Orleans Parish and all other U.S. counties—between the pre-disaster (1999–2004) and recovery (2007–2009) periods. Using Internal Revenue Service county-to-county migration flow data, we find that in the recovery period, Orleans Parish increased the number of migration ties with and received larger migration flows from nearby counties in the Gulf of Mexico coastal region, thereby spatially concentrating and intensifying the in-migration dimension of this predominantly urban system, while the out-migration dimension contracted and had smaller flows. We interpret these changes as the migration system relying on its strongest ties to nearby and less-damaged counties to generate recovery in-migration.     

Ethical Issues in Disaster Research: Lessons from Hurricane Katrina

Conducting research in the wake of a catastrophic event imposes the dual responsibilities on researchers of protecting the rights of the survivors as research subjects, while also ensuring research quality and the dissemination and application of findings. This article, based partially on the authors’ experiences of conducting research in school districts following Hurricane Katrina, examines the ethical issues that arise when working with survivors, reticent organizations, and institutional review boards. Challenges experienced by researchers concerning access, informed consent, confidentiality, subject compensation, and enlisting the assistance of stressed institutions are described. This material is based upon work supported by the National Science Foundation under Grant No. 0036566000. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this material are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Science Foundation.     

中国妇女生育意愿与生育行为的差异及其影响因素

生育行为与生育意愿背离现象广泛存在。在发达国家,普遍的情况是实际生育率大大低于意愿生育率。发展中国家同样出现了生育行为与生育意愿背离的现象,但更多呈现出与发达国家相反的规律。中国也出现了生育行为与生育意愿背离,且实际高于意愿的情况。根据中国2001年全国生殖健康调查,基本完成生育的40~49岁妇女,其平均理想子女数为1.8,而平均实际生育子女数为2.2。利用2001年全国生殖健康调查数据,考察中国妇女生育行为与生育意愿背离的特征和影响因素,并考察个体背景(个人特征和社会经济背景)、生育政策和生育孩子情况(包括孩子的性别结构和存活状况)对生育意愿与生育行为的差异产生的影响。结果表明,这些因素都对生育意愿与生育行为的差异产生显著影响,但性别偏好是造成生育行为大于生育意愿的主要因素。     

After a Disaster: Lessons in Survey Methodology from Hurricane Katrina

In 2005, the National Science Foundation funded a number of projects to study the impact of Hurricane Katrina. The current article provides an overview of several research approaches used to conduct post-Katrina research. Each method had some advantages and disadvantages. The post-disaster context meant that experience from traditional survey methods often did not apply. Comparisons of advantages and disadvantages associated with each sampling method serve to inform future post-disaster research and illuminate the limits of classical research methods.     

Fertility in China: An uncertain future

As one of the world’s two population ‘billionaires’, the future of China’s population is truly of global significance. With its very low fertility and a rapidly ageing population, it might appear that the country’s famous (or notorious) family planning restrictions are somewhat anachronistic. Here, we explore the process of reform seen over the past three decades and, most recently, in late 2013. We suggest that the popular notion that the family planning restrictions are acting as a pressure valve suppressing a pent-up demand for childbearing, particularly in rural China, is likely to be inaccurate. We also suggest that further reform of the restrictions will not solve the problems of population ageing or many of the other issues widely associated with the restrictions. We conclude that the prospects for further reform are wide-ranging, but likely to be beset by many challenges.     

Out-migration from and return migration to Puerto Rico after Hurricane Maria: evidence from the consumer credit panel

Population and Environment - In this research brief, we contribute to a much-needed, initial, and growing inventory of data on Puerto Rican migration after Hurricane Maria. Using data from the...     

Fertility differences in Peru: A reconsideration

Abstract In a series of articles by Stycos, Heer and W. H. James, predominantly Indian areas of Peru were reported to have significantly lower levels of fertility than the economically better developed Spanish-speaking areas. Heer and James reported similar findings for Bolivia and Ecuador as well as Peru.     

Race, socioeconomic status, and return migration to New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina

Hurricane Katrina struck New Orleans on the 29th of August 2005 and displaced virtually the entire population of the city. Soon after, observers predicted the city would become whiter and wealthier as a result of selective return migration, although challenges related to sampling and data collection in a post-disaster environment have hampered evaluation of these hypotheses. In this article, we investigate return to the city by displaced residents over a period of approximately 14 months following the storm, describing overall return rates and examining differences in return rates by race and socioeconomic status. We use unique data from a representative sample of pre-Katrina New Orleans residents collected in the Displaced New Orleans Residents Pilot Survey. We find that black residents returned to the city at a much slower pace than white residents even after controlling for socioeconomic status and demographic characteristics. However, the racial disparity disappears after controlling for housing damage. We conclude that blacks tended to live in areas that experienced greater flooding and hence suffered more severe housing damage which, in turn, led to their delayed return to the city. The full-scale survey of displaced residents being fielded in 2009–2010 will show whether the repopulation of the city was selective over a longer period.     

Fertility intentions and maternal health behaviour during and after pregnancy

This study examines associations between fertility intentions and maternal health behaviours during and after pregnancy among a nationally representative sample of 3,442 women from India. Two waves of data (2005, 2012) from the India Human Development Survey were analyzed to investigate the influence of unwanted births on women’s use of antenatal care, timely postnatal care, and the delivery setting using binary and ordered logistic regression, partial proportional odds models, and propensity score weighting. Fifty-eight per cent of sample births were unwanted. Regression results show that, net of maternal and household characteristics, women with unwanted births were less likely to obtain any antenatal care and had fewer antenatal tests performed. Unwantedness was also associated with a lower likelihood of delivering in an institutional setting and of obtaining timely postnatal care. The relationships between unwantedness and antenatal care, postnatal care, and delivery setting were robust to models accounting for propensity weighting.     

生育理性和生育决策与我国低生育水平稳定机制的转变

自改革开放以来 ,我国人口生育率水平出现了迅速的转变 ,特别是 1 992年我国确立了市场经济为目标的经济改革以来 ,生育率水平更是进一步降低到更替水平以下。如果说 ,生育率的迅速转变是在国家计划生育政策干预下启动的 ,那么 ,在 1 990年代生育率的下降应该主要是社会和经济发展的结果。以市场经济为导向的经济改革和经济的迅速发展 ,已经为稳定我国城市地区人口低生育率水平提供了必要的经济条件 ,同时 ,制度、技术和文化等因素的变革已经为我国个人生育决策理性化创造了条件 ,低生育水平的稳定机制已经开始从政策控制为主转向群众自我控制为主的转变     

Using geotagged tweets to track population movements to and from Puerto Rico after Hurricane Maria

Population and Environment - After a disaster, there is an urgent need for information on population mobility. Our analysis examines the suitability of Twitter data for measuring post-disaster...