Heterogeneous climate effects on human migration in Indonesia

We examine the effect of anomalous temperatures, rainfall levels, and monsoon timing on migration outcomes in Indonesia. Using panel data from the Indonesian Family Life Survey and high-resolution climate data, we assess whether intra- and inter-province moves are used as a response to climatic shocks. We evaluate the relative importance of temperature, rainfall, and monsoon timing for migration. Only temperature and monsoon timing have significant effects, and these do not operate in the direction commonly assumed. Estimated effects vary according to individuals’ gender, membership in a farm household, and location. We also analyze climate effects on sources of household income, which highlights the multi-phasic nature of household responses. Results undermine narratives of a uniform global migratory response to climate change and highlight the heterogeneous use of migration as a response to such changes. By extending previous research on environmentally induced migration in Indonesia, we also highlight the sensitivity of estimates to alternative climate and migration measures.     

The impacts of climate variability on household welfare in rural Mexico

In light of the expected increase in weather variability from climate change, we examine the impact of weather shocks, defined as rainfall or growing degree days more than a standard deviation from their respective long-run means, on household consumption per capita. The analyses suggest that both rainfall and temperature shocks affect both food and non-food consumption. Furthermore, the results show that a household’s ability to protect its consumption from weather shocks depends on the climate region and when in the agricultural year the shock occurs. Especially, households in arid climates are not fully protected from weather shocks occurring during the beginning of the wet season (April, May, June). The results highlight the necessity to account for the underlying climatic variation as well as to carefully define the shocks.     

Migration and retirement in the life course: an event history approach

Migration at older ages is commonly explained by reference to the search for greater amenity, and subsequently by the onset of greater dependency, but the links between mobility and specific life course transitions have rarely been articulated. We aim to establish the timing of migration in relation to retirement from the labour force, and to determine how its intensity varies around the retirement event. We also seek to identify how household and individual characteristics shape the propensity and timing of migration, differentiating moves according to distance and with particular attention to the characteristics of the spouse. Data are drawn from the first six waves of the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia survey, a nationally representative panel study covering the period 2001–2006. Migration events are identified relative to retirement and event history methods are employed to establish the characteristics predisposing households to relocate around retirement. Results demonstrate that retirement acts as a trigger to migration but the propensity to move falls as retirement age rises and the hazard is increasingly concentrated in the year retirement occurs. Within this framework the presence, health, education and retirement status of a spouse exert a significant influence on the likelihood of migration, though with different effects for long and short distance moves. Results highlight the importance of variations in underlying life-course trajectories in shaping retirement migration and demonstrate that only a minority of moves at ages 55–69 are directly associated with retirement, underlining the need for caution when identifying retirement migration using age as a proxy measure.     

Different Reasons,Different Results: Implications of Migration by Gender and Family Status

Previous research on migration and gendered career outcomes centers on couples and rarely examines the reason for the move. The implicit assumption is usually that households migrate in response to job opportunities. Based on a two-year panel from the Current Population Survey, this article uses stated reasons for geographic mobility to compare earnings outcomes among job migrants, family migrants, and quality-of-life migrants by gender and family status. We further assess the impact of migration on couples’ internal household economy. The effects of job-related moves that we find are reduced substantially in the fixed-effects models, indicating strong selection effects. Married women who moved for family reasons experience significant and substantial earnings declines. Consistent with conventional models of migration, we find that household earnings and income and gender specialization increase following job migration. Married women who are secondary earners have increased odds of reducing their labor supply following migration for job or family reasons. However, we also find that migrating women who contributed as equals to the household economy before the move are no more likely than nonmigrant women to exit work or to work part-time. Equal breadwinner status may protect women from becoming tied movers.     

Determinants of Educational Attainment in Rural Thailand: A Life Course Approach

Using data from rural Thailand, we examine the determinants of educational attainment of school-age children. We organize our analysis around three central principles of the life course perspective: the embeddedness of lives in historical time and place, linked or interconnected lives, and the timing of lives. We examine these principles using comparisons within cohorts and between cohorts. We find that educational attainment is related to a combination of factors related to each of these principles. Specifically, despite a serious economic downturn occurring midway through our study, we nonetheless found that educational levels were higher following the downturn than preceding it. Interconnections to parents and siblings also affected educational outcomes, as did the timing of life events such as migration, marriage, and childbearing. For the latter, mother??s education and migration both positively affected educational attainment. For the former, having more siblings, both those in the household and those migrating, reduced education.     

Exploring the influence of precipitation on fertility timing in rural Mexico

The influence of environmental conditions on fertility decision-making is becoming increasingly important in the context of contemporary climate change. Deforestation, land availability, and environmental quality may shape decisions regarding family size, particularly in regions with high levels of natural resource dependence. This research examines the relationship between fertility timing and precipitation in rural Mexico by linking household event-history data to municipal-level precipitation measures. Even after controlling for other factors that impact fertility, in historically dry areas, households are more likely to have a child following above average precipitation, using both 1-year and 2-year prior precipitation measures. Conversely, the relationship between precipitation and fertility timing in humid areas of rural Mexico is not statistically significant. Overall, the findings reveal that the fertility-environment connection is highly context-specific and differs across climate zones in Mexico, but that fertility timing is associated with recent rainfall patterns for households in dry areas of rural Mexico.     

Climate shocks and migration: an agent-based modeling approach

This is a study of migration responses to climate shocks. We construct an agent-based model that incorporates dynamic linkages between demographic behaviors, such as migration, marriage, and births, and agriculture and land use, which depend on rainfall patterns. The rules and parameterization of our model are empirically derived from qualitative and quantitative analyses of a well-studied demographic field site, Nang Rong district, northeast Thailand. With this model, we simulate patterns of migration under four weather regimes in a rice economy: (1) a reference, “normal” scenario; (2) 7 years of unusually wet weather; (3) 7 years of unusually dry weather; and (4) 7 years of extremely variable weather. Results show relatively small impacts on migration. Experiments with the model show that existing high migration rates and strong selection factors, which are unaffected by climate change, are likely responsible for the weak migration response.     

The Migrant–Nonmigrant Differentials in Prenatal Care Utilization: Evidence from Indonesia

Using the 2000 wave of Indonesian Family Life Survey (IFLS3), this study attempts to further complement studies that seek to analyze the relationship between migration and prenatal care utilization in Indonesia. The major conclusion from the multilevel logistic regression suggests that migrants are less likely than non-migrants to seek prenatal care in a public or private hospital but are more likely than non-migrants to initiate prenatal care in their first trimester and to receive four or more prenatal visits. Several measures of child, woman, household and community characteristics are also significant predictors of the location, timing and frequency of prenatal care. It is evident that the design of effective and efficient policies requires a more comprehensive knowledge of the determinants of migration and maternal healthcare services utilization. The assessment of whether the extent of the location, timing and frequency of prenatal care differs between migrants and non-migrants would have important policy implications for both individuals and society at large.     

The effects of climate change on the geography and timing of human mobility

Human mobility over different distances and time scales has long been associated with environmental change, and the idea of climate change is now affecting movement in new ways. In this paper, we discuss three cases from the South Pacific to explain the ways anticipated climate futures are changing mobility in the present. First, we examine village relocation in response to coastal erosion and inundation in Fiji, drawing on our study of the unfolding experience of Narikoso village in Kadavu Province. In contrast to this spatially constrained process of permanent relocation, we examine the spatially extended yet temporally constrained seasonal migrant worker programme that aims to support economic development in the Pacific Islands by providing temporary work visas in Australia and New Zealand. Finally, we examine the likely effects of proposed open labour markets as a means to promote climate change adaptation, through a study of the analogous example of Niuean migration to New Zealand which has resulted in both permanent migration and a slow circulation of people between both countries. Across these examples, we highlight emerging and potentially constructive ways in which climate change is altering the spatio-temporal patterns and rhythms of mobility.     

Climate change and internal migration intentions in the forest-savannah transition zone of Ghana

Migration is at the centre of demographic research on the population–environment nexus. Increasing concerns about the impacts of environmental events on human population are fuelling interest on the relationship between migration and environmental change. Using data from the Climate Change Collective Learning and Observatory Network Ghana project, we employ binary logistic regression to examine migration intentions of households in response to major community stressors including climate-related ones. The results indicate that the type of community stressor that affects households most does not differentiate migration intentions in Ghana’s forest-savannah transition zone: Even though the majority of the respondents mentioned climate-related events as the stressor that affects them the most, such events do not appear to directly explain migration intentions. However, socio-demographic factors such as age, household size and current migration status are significant predictors of migration intentions, with younger household heads, heads of migrant households and heads of smaller households being relatively more likely to have migration intentions than other household heads. We conclude that migration drivers are multifaceted and deserve further research because even in areas with perceived environmental stress, climate-related events may not be the primary motivation for migration intentions.     

贫困地区劳动力迁移、农户收入与贫困的缓解——基于新疆农户面板数据的实证分析

本文基于新疆30个贫困县、3000个农户、2008-2010年的微观面板数据,在控制了家庭规模、劳动力数量等家庭特征变量和粮食播种面积等村庄特征变量的前提下．运用固定效应法与工具变量法分别考察了劳动力迁移规模、迁移方式与迁移区位对家庭收入的影响．并进一步分析了劳动力迁移对贫困的缓解效应。回归结果表明：劳动力迁移规模虽然对农户农业收入有负向影响．但显著提高了农户人均收入与利他性收入：自发性迁移与政府组织性迁移方式均能显著提高农户收入,且自发性迁移的作用更强;省内县外迁移对农户收入的提高最为显著,其次为县内乡外迁移．省外迁移不影响农户收入：劳动力迁移规模提高了中等收入农户的收入水平。但对贫困户的贫困无缓解效应．也不影响富裕户的收入水平。     

Do Rainfall Deficits Predict U.S.-Bound Migration from Rural Mexico? Evidence from the Mexican Census

Environmental and climatic changes have shaped human mobility for thousands of years and research on the migration-environment connection has proliferated in the past several years. Even so, little work has focused on Latin America or on international movement. Given rural Mexico’s dependency on primary sector activities involving various natural resources, and the existence of well-established transnational migrant networks, we investigate the association between rainfall patterns and U.S.-bound migration from rural locales, a topic of increasing policy relevance. The new economics of labor migration theory provides background, positing that migration represents a household-level risk management strategy. We use data from the year 2000 Mexican census for rural localities and socioeconomic and state-level precipitation data provided by the Mexican National Institute for Statistics and Geography. Multilevel models assess the impact of rainfall change on household-level international out-migration while controlling for relevant sociodemographic and economic factors. A decrease in precipitation is significantly associated with U.S.-bound migration, but only for dry Mexican states. This finding suggests that programs and policies aimed at reducing Mexico-U.S. migration should seek to diminish the climate/weather vulnerability of rural Mexican households, for example by supporting sustainable irrigation systems and subsidizing drought-resistant crops.     

The effect of female migration on infant and child survival in Uganda

This article uses data from the 1996 Uganda Demographic and Health Survey to examine whether migration of women improves the survival chances of their children to age five. We expand on prior research by testing not only the hypothesized positive effect of rural-urban migration, but also the effects of other migration stream behaviours on child survival. Results show that up to 10% of children die before age five and within-group differences in mortality exist among urban and rural children depending on their mother's migration status. Only urban-urban migration was significantly related to child survival, compared to rural non-migrants, after controlling for other factors, although other streams of migration (rural-urban, urban-rural, rural-rural) were positively related to child survival. Generally, migration explains a small component of the variance in child survival. Several other factors, including parents' education, household size, household headship, mother's age at birth, duration of breastfeeding, and place of delivery have a significant predictive power on child survival.     

Family Migration Pattern in China

Do an increase in ageing in developed countries and ＂getting old before getting rich＂ in developing countries indicate that fluctuations in the population age structure have produced a qualitative change？ What is a qualitative change and what is a quantitative change＇？ Here we propose a new concept of Shadow Population,then establish a new standard for evaluating population age structure,finally present a typical five stage population age structure type transition model. The model simulation shows that all world regions are still in the adult stage and that population ageing belongs to the category of quantitative change. However, sustained low fertility will lead to a qualitative change in the ageing population. The current pressure of population aging in the adult stage placed on the pension security system shows that this system is truly not retirement age and Long-term stability in a sustainable system,Gradually raising the replacement fertility is the key to solving the socioeconomic development dilemma presented by future population ageing in low fertility regions or cotlntries,but the latter is more urgent.     

Effects of changes in rainfall and temperature on age- and sex-specific patterns of rural-urban migration in sub-Saharan Africa

We evaluate how changes in weather patterns affected rural-urban migration across 41 sub-Saharan African countries, by age and sex, over the 1980–2015 period. We combine recent age- and sex-specific estimates of net rural-urban migration with historical data on rainfall and temperature from the Climate Research Unit (CRU). We also compare standard unweighted estimates of rainfall and temperature to estimates weighted by the proportion of the country’s total rural population in the CRU grid. Results show that rural out-migration of young adults is the most sensitive to shifts in weather patterns, with lower rainfall, lower variability in rainfall, and higher temperatures increasing subsequent rural out-migration—though the last of these is not observed in weighted models. The strength of these effects has grown stronger over time for 20–24 year olds, though weaker above age 30. In contrast, increasing temperature variability is associated with a higher rural in-migration of children (0–9) and older adults (55–64). Gender differences in these effects are minimal and concentrated in areas which experienced heavy reductions in rainfall.

     

Climate shocks and the timing of migration from Mexico

Although evidence is increasing that climate shocks influence human migration, it is unclear exactly when people migrate after a climate shock. A climate shock might be followed by an immediate migration response. Alternatively, migration, as an adaptive strategy of last resort, might be delayed and employed only after available in situ (in-place) adaptive strategies are exhausted. In this paper, we explore the temporally lagged association between a climate shock and future migration. Using multilevel event-history models, we analyze the risk of Mexico-US migration over a seven-year period after a climate shock. Consistent with a delayed response pattern, we find that the risk of migration is low immediately after a climate shock and increases as households pursue and cycle through in situ adaptive strategies available to them. However, about 3 years after the climate shock, the risk of migration decreases, suggesting that households are eventually successful in adapting in situ.     

Analysis on Factors Affecting Decision-making of Migrant Population in Large Cities of China

In this paper, based on survey data of four cities,migrant population in 2008, we use multi-level Logit model to analyze the factors of individual and areas of destination which have impact on migration behavior of migrant population in large cities.We find that there are large changes in the behavior of migrants:Firstly,the rise in the proportion of migrant citizens has led to the effects of gender, marital status and household type and other factors on the probability of migration are not significant,and the migration is appearing to base on the family unit;Secondly,due to the discrimination against migrants in employment and wage income, and the upgrade of industrial structure,the attractiveness of the increasing jobs to the migrant population has declined, and migrants,expected income is detaching from the income level of urban residents;Thirdly,the growth of urban ladors,average wage has extrusion effect on the employment of the migrant labors in the informal sector, which reduces the probability of potential migrant population.     

Satisfaction with Job and Income Among Older Individuals Across European Countries

Using data on individuals of age 50 and older from 11 European countries, we analyze two economic aspects of subjective well-being of older Europeans: satisfaction with household income, and job satisfaction. Both have been shown to contribute substantially to overall well-being (satisfaction with life or happiness). We use anchoring vignettes to correct for potential differences in response scales across countries. The results highlight a large variation in self-reported income satisfaction, which is partly explained by differences in response scales. When differences in response scales are eliminated, the cross-country differences are quite well in line with differences in an objective measure of purchasing power of household income. There are common features in the response scale differences in job satisfaction and income satisfaction. French respondents tend to be critical in both assessments, while Danish and Dutch respondents are always on the optimistic end of the spectrum. Moreover, correcting for response scale differences decreases the cross-country association between satisfaction with income and job satisfaction among workers.     

Climate,migration, and the local food security context: introducing Terra Populus

Studies investigating the connection between environmental factors and migration are difficult to execute because they require the integration of microdata and spatial information. In this article, we introduce the novel, publically available data extraction system Terra Populus (TerraPop), which was designed to facilitate population–environment studies. We showcase the use of TerraPop by exploring variations in the climate–migration association in Burkina Faso and Senegal based on differences in the local food security context. Food security was approximated using anthropometric indicators of child stunting and wasting derived from Demographic and Health Surveys and linked to the TerraPop extract of climate and migration information. We find that an increase in heat waves was associated with a decrease in international migration from Burkina Faso, while excessive precipitation increased international moves from Senegal. Significant interactions reveal that the adverse effects of heat waves and droughts are strongly amplified in highly food insecure Senegalese departments.     

Migradollars and mortality: The effects of migration on infant survival in Mexico

We apply multilevel methods to data from Mexico to examine how village migration patterns affect infant survival outcomes in origins. We argue that migration is a cumulative process with varying health effects at different stages of its progression, and test several related hypotheses. Findings suggest higher rates of infant mortality in communities experiencing intense U.S. migration. However, two factors diminish the disruptive effects of migration: migradollars, or migrant remittances to villages, and the institutionalization of migration over time. Mortality risks are low when remittances are high and decrease as migration becomes increasingly salient to livelihoods of communities. Together, the findings indicate eventual benefits to all infants, irrespective of household migration experience, as a result of the development of social and economic processes related to U.S. migration.