Estimates of vital rates for the Canadian Indians, 1960–1970

The present paper is an attempt to evaluate the registered data on Canadian Indians collected by the Department of Indian Affairs and Northern Development and to prepare vital rates for 1960–1970 using the adjusted data. A cursory examination of registered data for the purpose of developing various demographic indices and for making future estimates of population indicates certain anomalies that call for a careful appraisal of the data. The main problem is the inconsistency in the reporting of births, due largely to the late registration of births. One plausible reason for late registration may be the increased outward movement of Indians from their reserves. Indirect methods are used to adjust the number of births and infant deaths reported annually since 1960. On the basis of the adjusted data, vital rates for the Canadian Indians are calculated for the period 1960–1970. The crude death rate decreased from 10.9 in 1960 to 7.5 in 1970. The infant mortality rate registered a drastic decline, from 81.5 deaths per 1,000 births in 1960 to 34.9 in 1970. During this same time period the birth rate also declined, from 46.5 to 37.2.     

Climate shocks and migration: an agent-based modeling approach

This is a study of migration responses to climate shocks. We construct an agent-based model that incorporates dynamic linkages between demographic behaviors, such as migration, marriage, and births, and agriculture and land use, which depend on rainfall patterns. The rules and parameterization of our model are empirically derived from qualitative and quantitative analyses of a well-studied demographic field site, Nang Rong district, northeast Thailand. With this model, we simulate patterns of migration under four weather regimes in a rice economy: (1) a reference, “normal” scenario; (2) 7 years of unusually wet weather; (3) 7 years of unusually dry weather; and (4) 7 years of extremely variable weather. Results show relatively small impacts on migration. Experiments with the model show that existing high migration rates and strong selection factors, which are unaffected by climate change, are likely responsible for the weak migration response.     

A problem of estimating a contingency table arising in demographic analysis

Abstract This note deals with a special problem of estimating a contingency table arising in demographic analysis. What we require are the estimates of the numbers of births and deaths in Malaya crossclassified by state and race for the years of the Japanese occcupation, 1942-45. For many reasons this period had an adverse effect on the Chinese and Indian Communities, and hence the two-fold result of a greater reduction in the number of births and a larger increase in the number of deaths in states with a smaller proportion of Malay population. The estimates are worked out by means of a technique which takes into consideration this actual demographic situation.     

Aggregate population and economic growth correlations: The role of the components of demographic change

The results of recent correlations showing a negative impact of population growth on economic development in cross-country data for the 1980s, versus “nonsignificant” correlations widely found for the 1960s and 1970s, are examined with contemporaneous and lagged components of demographic change, convergence-type economic modeling, and several statistical frameworks. The separate impacts of births and deaths are found to be notable but offsetting in the earlier periods. In contrast, the short-run costs (benefits) of births (mortality reduction) increase (decrease) significantly in the 1980s, and the favorable labor-force impacts of past births are not fully offsetting.     

Household demographic factors as life cycle determinants of land use in the Amazon

This paper seeks to broaden the application of demographyto environmental studies by complementing existing macro-level approaches, which feature aggregate populations, with a micro-level approach that highlights household life cycles. I take up the case of small farm households in the Brazilian Amazon to present a theoretical framework that identifies demographic characteristics which dispose families to engage in different forms of land use as household age structures change. Empirical models show that net of theeffects of farmer background, neighborhood context, institutional context, and off-farm incomes, demographic variables indicative of the household life cycle exert significant effects on the prominence of land uses with distinct environmental ramifications. The findings not only reveal micro-level demographic factors which affect Amazon land cover, they yield implications forfuture changes in rainforest landscapes in northern Brazil, and suggest household life cycle models as an avenue for further demographic research on environmental change in Latin America and other contexts.     

How many children? – Fixing total annual births as a population control policy

Traditional family planning's emphasis on manipulating the total fertility rate often results in erratic number of births which disrupts school enrollment and labor supply. Fixing total annual births to a permanently lower level will avoid such repeated disruptions and can eventually lead to a lower stationary population with annual deaths equal to the fixed annual births. If allocation of the fixed birth quotas is conditional upon deaths, each death can be converted to a variable number of inheritable and tradable birth quotas. Tradable birth coupons allow families to have the number of children they want and can afford within the overall fixed birth quotas. Inheritable birth quotas provide incentive for higher old-age mortality and consequently less aging in a declining population.     

The forecast accuracy of Australian Bureau of Statistics national population projections

This paper examines the forecast accuracy of Australian Bureau of Statistics national population projections produced from the 1960s to the early 2000s. As well as total populations, the accuracy of the following is assessed: age-sex-specific populations, the Total Fertility Rate, life expectancy at birth and net international migration. It is shown that forecasts of the 1960s and 70s were the most inaccurate; forecasts of the 1980s and later proved to be much more reliable. The paper goes on to take an alternative perspective on population forecast error through the use of an adapted percentage error measure which accounts for offsetting errors in births, deaths, net migration and the jump-off population. This measure also permits an assessment of the relative contributions of the components of demographic change to overall inaccuracy. It is shown that errors in forecasting net international migration have generally contributed most to inaccuracy followed by births and then deaths and jump-off error. ABS projections of total population are also compared to those produced using a simple naïve model. The paper concludes by arguing that the new error measure could prove valuable in other studies of population forecast accuracy.     

The Effects of the Registration System on the Seasonality of Births: The Case of the Soviet Union

Scientists study seasonality in order to understand the effect of environmental, biological, and social factors on demographic events. Poor data quality can also affect seasonal variation in mortality and fertility statistics. The influence of error on seasonal data becomes crucial as researchers analyze timing and spacing of events in time-series analyses. In this study we examine the reported number of births by month in the Soviet Union for 1950, 1955, and 1958–85. The lowest number of births has typically occurred in December, and the highest in January. This seasonal pattern is not consistent with any plausible biological or behavioural explanation. It is probably an artifact of attributing births that actually occurred during the preceding December or earlier, to January. This implies that Soviet statistical practice has not followed the stated policy of attributing births to the period (day, month, year) in which they occur. A substantial reduction between the 1950s and 1985 in the December-January peak in reported births implies marked improvement in Soviet vital registration statistics. The Soviet case shows that characteristics of the registration system can impart a particular seasonal pattern to demographic data. It also shows that officially prescribed procedures are not always followed in data generation, even in centrally planned economies. Researchers should carefully examine the quality of seasonal data before concluding that the data reflect real variations in demographic behaviour.     

Shifting environmental concern in rural eastern Oregon: the role of demographic and place-based factors

Public opinion can impact the success of natural resource management policies and programs. In this case study, we assess the degree to which demographic and place-based factors are associated with changing public opinions on climate change, wolves, renewable energy, and land development regulations in rural northeast Oregon. Based on cross-sectional telephone survey data collected in 2011 and 2014, our observations suggest declining support for eliminating wolves, increased support for renewable energy, and increasingly favorable views of regulations that limit development in rural landscapes. We find that while demographic change and local events contribute to some of the observed shifts in opinion on wolves, exogenous factors acting at state and national levels likely contribute to shifting opinions on climate change, renewable energy, and land use regulations.     

Immigration,below-replacement fertility,and long-term national population trends

The long-term demographic effects of immigration on a population experiencing below-replacement fertility are studied by assuming that the size and age composition of the immigrant population do not change over time. The size of the first-generation immigrant population becomes stationary within a time period not greater than the human life span. Thereafter, the number dying equals the number entering over any given time interval. The stationarity of the native population, among which deaths exceed births, is maintained by the compensating number of births to the immigrant population. The limiting age distribution of the country's population, although stationary, may not decline monotonically with age and may look like a camel's back, with one or two humps.     

Reply to Wachter

Although twins constitute only about 2.4 per cent of total births in less developed countries, they account for about 12 per cent of neonatal deaths and about nine per cent of infant deaths. Twin mortality in less developed countries has almost never been analysed systematically. We examine survival among twins as contrasted with that among singleton births by using 2692 twin observations pooled from 26 standardized Demographic and Health Surveys. Weakened by gestational and other biological complications, twins seem to be more vulnerable to detrimental demographic and household socio-economic influences than singletons. Twinning tends to amplify, or at least retain, whatever group differences exist among singleton births.     

Diverging Demography: Hispanic and Non-Hispanic Contributions to U.S. Population Redistribution and Diversity

The substantial growth and geographic dispersion of Hispanics is among the most important demographic trends in recent U.S. demographic history. Our county-level study examines how widespread Hispanic natural increase and net migration has combined with the demographic change among non-Hispanics to produce an increasingly diverse population. This paper uses U.S. Census Bureau data and special tabulations of race/ethnic specific births and deaths from NCHS to highlight the demographic role of Hispanics as an engine of new county population growth and ethnoracial diversity across the U.S. landscape. It highlights key demographic processes—natural increase and net migration—that accounted for 1990–2010 changes in the absolute and relative sizes of the Hispanic and non-Hispanic populations. Hispanics accounted for the majority of all U.S. population growth between 2000 and 2010. Yet, Hispanics represented only 16 % of the U.S. population in 2010. Most previous research has focused on Hispanic immigration; here, we examine how natural increase and net migration among both the Hispanic and non-Hispanic population contribute to the nation’s growing diversity. Indeed, the demographic impact of rapid Hispanic growth has been reinforced by minimal white population growth due to low fertility, fewer women of reproductive age and growing mortality among the aging white population America’s burgeoning Hispanic population has left a large demographic footprint that is magnified by low and declining fertility and increasing mortality among America’s aging non-Hispanic population.     

The effect of illegitimacy on U.S. general fertility rates and population growth

Illegitimacy and bridal pregnancy has attracted the attention of scholars concerned with a variety of plausible causes and consequences ofbirths conceived out of wedlock. Sociologists have expressed concern with the impact of such births on maternal and child health, family stability and the economic status offamilies. Although demographers have described trends in various populations, and have occasionally suggested that births conceived out of wedlock influence general fertility rates and cohort fertility, measures of the demographic impact of illegitimate or premaritally conceived births have not been assessed. While it seems obvious that a change in births conceived out of wedlock will affect change in a general fertility rate, this finding would not automatically allow the conclusion that cohort fertility would change because a change in the rate of births conceived out of wedlock occurred.     

The effect of illegitimacy on U.S. general fertility rates and population growth

Abstract Illegitimacy and bridal pregnancy has attracted the attention of scholars concerned with a variety of plausible causes and consequences ofbirths conceived out of wedlock. Sociologists have expressed concern with the impact of such births on maternal and child health, family stability and the economic status offamilies. Although demographers have described trends in various populations, and have occasionally suggested that births conceived out of wedlock influence general fertility rates and cohort fertility, measures of the demographic impact of illegitimate or premaritally conceived births have not been assessed. While it seems obvious that a change in births conceived out of wedlock will affect change in a general fertility rate, this finding would not automatically allow the conclusion that cohort fertility would change because a change in the rate of births conceived out of wedlock occurred.     

Property Size and Land Cover Change in the Brazilian Amazon

This paper considers the size of a farmer’s property as a key variable influencing land cover and land cover change in rural areas of developing countries. Data from 126 rural familial properties in the region around the city of Santarém, Pará, in the Brazilian Amazon, indicate that property size is important for understanding the trajectories of land cover change. Past research has focused on the distinction between small family farms and large capitalized farms, arguing that family farmers have a higher deforestation intensity, or on estimating the strength of the effect of property size relative to economic or demographic factors. This paper shows that larger familial properties are able both to retain a larger area in forest and to have long enough cycles of use and fallow to allow previously used land to become forested again. Based on these analyses and discussion, we argue that land use and land cover research must consider property size as an organizing principle in order to better comprehend the reciprocal relationship between population and environment in frontier areas of the Brazilian Amazon and other rural landscapes.     

Levels and patterns of infant and child mortality in ghana

This paper attempts to measure infant and child mortality levels and also to determine their structure by utilizing the results of the 1968–1969 National Demographic Sample Survey which was conducted under the directorship of the author. Among the major problems encountered in the exercise are the adjustment of the current raw mortality data and the estimation of infant and child mortality from independent source material. The estimated infant mortality rates range from 56 per 1,000 live births in the Accra Capital District to 192 in the Upper Region during the late 1960’s. The urban rate is lower than the rural rate, 98 as against 161 per 1,000 live births. A large proportion of the deaths among children aged 0–4 occur in the second year of life, and deaths in this age group account for the bulk of the deaths within the age group 1–4 years.     

Crossovers that link populations with the same vital rates

"In this paper, we consider crossovers of demographic density distributions from...populations that have the same fertility and mortality rates. We focus on observed populations and their associated stationary and stable models, and on proportional distributions of persons, births, deaths and reproductive values....Three different populations were selected to represent a range of demographic behavior. Those populations are Japan 1963, a low mortality, low fertility population; Togo 1961, a high mortality, high fertility population; and the United States 1919-1921, a population whose fertility and mortality are intermediate."     

The Apparent Failure of Russia's Pronatalist Family Policies

Russia has a history of pronatalist policies dating back to the 1930s. Two sets of pronatalist measures were implemented during the past 40 years. The one designed in the early 1980s proved to be a clear failure. Instead of raising fertility, completed cohort fertility declined from 1.8 births per woman for the 1960 birth cohort to 1.6 for the 1968 cohort. The government of President Putin became concerned with the dire demographic conditions of high mortality and low fertility in Russia in the 1990s and early 2000s. A comprehensive set of pronatalist measures came into effect in January 2007. The period total fertility rate increased from 1.3 births per woman in 2006 to 1.6 in 2011, which the authorities view as an unqualified success. An unbiased demographic evaluation as well as analyses of Russian experts reveals that apparently the measures mainly caused a lowering of the age at birth and shortening of birth intervals. It appears that any real fertility increase is questionable, i.e. cohort fertility is not likely to increase appreciably. The recent pronatalist measures are likely to turn out to be a failure.     

Economic Swings and Demographic Changes in the History of Latin America

In this paper we study the effects of short-term fluctuations in indicators of economic well-being on selected demographic response such as births, marriages and deaths at age intervals in eleven Latin American countries between 1910 and 1990. We use conventional distributed lag models to assess the magnitude and direction of effects and test a variety of hypotheses some of which have been posed to hold in Western Europe and others that are more specific and tailored to the Latin American context. We also compare the magnitude and direction of effects obtained among these countries with those obtained for pre-industrial Europe and uncover the existence of broadly similar patterns.     

Rural out-migration and resource-dependent communities in Mexico and India

Resource regimes are complex social–ecological systems that operate at multiple levels. Using data from two distinct cultural and environmental contexts (Mexico and India), this paper looks at the susceptibility and response of such regimes to rural out-migration. As a driver of demographic and cultural change, out-migration impacts both the practices and institutional arrangements that define territorial resource use and management. The research shows that critical yet poorly recognised shifts in migration dynamics can increase the pressures felt locally and serve to reduce the effectiveness of institutional adaptations at the community level. From an environmental perspective, the research adds to the body of work examining the impacts of rural depopulation on land and seascapes and associated biological diversity. We question the assumption that rural–urban migration necessarily simulates ecosystem recovery and aids conservation. This finding is timely as funding agencies and government programs show belated interest in the consequences of out-migration for environmental management, resource use and rural livelihoods in tropical country settings.