高等学校教师教学质量的统计评价方法研究

本文根据高等学校教师教学质量评价的特点,将模糊综合评价法和马尔可夫评估法相结合,对教学质量进行综合评价。对教学内容、教学态度、教学方法三个指标,应用模糊综合评价,较好的解决了强制打分中硬性截割和评分的问题;对教学效果则根据学生成绩变化情况利用马尔可夫链评估法评价,解决了由于学生来源、基础差别而产生的对教学效果的影响问题。并用实例分析了该模型的具体应用。     

交强险IBNR评估方法研究

由于中国交强险方案的调整,导致目前保监会规定的四种IBNR评估方法都不适合.所以,以中国某家财产险公司医疗费用为例,给出了一种新IBNR评估方法.该方法利用了损失数据信息,考虑了责任限额和费率调整所产生的影响,弥补了B-F法和S-B法的缺点.最后对该方法的应用性进行了总结,并提出了若干建议.     

基于Copula函数的随机性期望赔付法

未决赔款准备金评估的随机性方法逐渐得到重视,而考虑赔款数据的相关性可提高准备金评估的精确性。在确定性期望赔付法的基础上,提出一种基于阿基米德Copula函数的随机性期望赔付法;在准备金评估中利用核密度估计实现进展因子的随机化,并在此基础上应用阿基米德Copula函数分析两类赔款数据相关性的问题;利用R软件模拟总损失准备金的分布,研究表明该方法相比传统的期望赔付法具有更强的灵活性,其结果也更符合实际。     

本期导读

灰色评估是灰色系统理论讨论较多的一种灰色技术。学者朱美玲、陈勇明(2011)提出了一种基于k-NN的灰色评估算法,但该方法存在采用线性修正函数从而任何一点变化率都相同的不合理性的问题。《一种基于Logistic曲线改进的k-NN灰色评估法》一文,将该方法中的线性修正函数改进为1ogistic修正函数,因评分专家对不同指标也可能存在各自的认知标准,据此提出了改进方法。并通过实例验证了改进的方法较原来的方法评估效果有更好的区分作用。     

Logistic回归模型在高校教师教学质量评估中的应用

常见的教师教学质量评估方式有以下几种:教师互评,上级领导(或专家)对教师评价,学生对教师的评价等等。本文结合这三方面应用Logistic回归分析的方法来进行研究,提出一个对教师教学质量的总体评估模型,并用SAS软件进行编程实现。这种评估模型能比较科学客观的评价教师的教学情况,可以广泛应用于其他领域的评估工作。     

基于意见集中排序法的教学质量评估

对于教学质量评估,虽然有一些方法可以采用,但是理论上和计算上比较复杂。文章讨论对不同评估团体的评估数据进行统计处理和意见集中排序的教学质量评估的方法,以期能够实现评价过程的简单化和评价结果的客观公正性。     

基于CVM方法的生命价值模型的构想

条件价值评估法(CVM)是非市场价值评估技术中最为重要、应用最为广泛的一种方法.文章介绍了CVM方法的发展历程及其优越性.进行了基于CVM方法构建生命价值理论模型的可行性分析;并在结合我国国情的基础上初步构想了以该方法为基础的生命价值理论模型.     

课程教学质量评价研究——以我院《计量经济学》课程教学评价为例

本文应用模糊数学和AHP方法,以我院计量经济学课程教学评价为例,对评价指标权重和各级指标体系进行了研究,得到了一种对该课程进行教学质量综合评价的定量化计算方法,该方法可以很好地将定性评价指标和定量评价指标结合起来,提高课程教学质量评价的正确性和合理性,同时,对于其它统计类相关课程教学质量评价提供借鉴和参考。     

企业核心竞争力的动态模糊评价模型

本文在分析现有企业核心竞争力评价方法和指标体系的优点和缺点的基础上提出的一种以层次分析法、专家调查法和动态模糊评价法相结合综合评价方法;同时本文对该方法的实用性进行实证分析,事实证明该方法在解决同时具有定性和定量指标问题的评价上的优势.本文在企业核心竞争力评估的指标体系的构建上也进行了革新.     

属性权重信息不完全的区间多属性TOPSIS法

本文提出的方法是针对属性权重信息不完全的区间多属性问题的,文章提出了一种修正了的TOPSIS法。方法充分利用了决策者给出的权重信息,通过单目标线性规划确定各方案的正理想点和负理想点,给出了一种确定权重的方法,进而计算每个方案到理想点的接近度,最后得出方案的排序,文章最后把该法应用于解决风险投资领域的项目评估中。     

Controlling processes in food technology by simplifying the canonical form of fitted response surfaces

Second-order response surfaces are often fitted to the results of designed experiments, and the canonical form of such surfaces can greatly help both in interpreting the results and in deciding what action to take on the process under study. A mixing process on pastry dough is described in which it is desired to simplify the canonical form to make the control of the process more economical, by basing it on only two of the three factors. We give examples where a simplification is possible with minimal loss of accuracy and where it can be seriously misleading, and we outline the features of the response surface that lead to these two situations. A method of improving the simplification by recalculating the constrained canonical axis is proposed. These methods ensure that the mixing process can be controlled by using only two factors without seriously lowering the quality of the pastry.     

Statistical analysis of performance indicators in UK higher education

Summary.  Attempts to measure the quality with which institutions such as hospitals and universities carry out their public mandates have gained in frequency and sophistication over the last decade. We examine methods for creating performance indicators in multilevel or hierarchical settings (e.g. students nested within universities) based on a dichotomous outcome variable (e.g. drop-out from the higher education system). The profiling methods that we study involve the indirect measurement of quality, by comparing institutional outputs after adjusting for inputs, rather than directly attempting to measure the quality of the processes unfolding inside the institutions. In the context of an extended case-study of the creation of performance indicators for universities in the UK higher education system, we demonstrate the large sample functional equivalence between a method based on indirect standardization and an approach based on fixed effects hierarchical modelling, offer simulation results on the performance of the standardization method in null and non-null settings, examine the sensitivity of this method to the inadvertent omission of relevant adjustment variables, explore random-effects reformulations and characterize settings in which they are preferable to fixed effects hierarchical modelling in this type of quality assessment and discuss extensions to longitudinal quality modelling and the overall pros and cons of institutional profiling. Our results are couched in the language of higher education but apply with equal force to other settings with dichotomous response variables, such as the examination of observed and expected rates of mortality (or other adverse outcomes) in investigations of the quality of health care or the study of retention rates in the workplace.     

An Investigation of Agreement Between the Item Difficulty Coefficient Calculated in Accordance With Classical Test Theory and Item Response Theory With Bland–Altman Method

The purpose of this study is to investigate agreement between item difficulty coefficients calculated relying on classical test theory and item response theory with Bland–Altman method. According to results, although there is a high correlation between Pj and b coefficient estimated with HGLM (hierarchical generalized linear model), 1P, and 3P models, it can be said that there is no agreement between two methods and cannot be used interchangeably. It is observed that the confidence limit is wide according to Bland–Altman graphics. Therefore, it can be said that there is no agreement between item difficulty values obtained from two methods. Bland–Altman method which is used in clinical studies mostly is suggested to be used in the comparison of methods used especially in the evaluation of student performance in education, in agreement studies among specialist considerations especially in terms of providing additional information to the studies in which correlation coefficient is calculated.     

统计教育现状分析与思考

近几年统计教育规模不断下降的状况已引起人们的高度重视和思考。形成目前状况的原因,既有诸如统计法规宣传不力、人才质量与社会需求相背离、统计数据质量不高等外部原因,也有教育自身在教育模式、教育结构、教育功能、教育标准、教育资源、教学过程等方面存在的问题。我们只有理性地看待统计教育发展现状,认真分析其产生原因,逐个剖析,深入挖掘,抓住主要矛盾,加大改革力度,采取有利措施,才能促进统计教育健康稳步地发展。     

Is comprehensive education really free?: a case-study of the effects of secondary school admissions policies on house prices in one local area

Summary. The paper reports on a study that tests the anecdotal hypothesis that parents are willing to pay a premium to secure places for their children in popular and oversubscribed comprehensive schools. Since many local education authorities use admissions policies that are based on catchment areas and places in popular schools are very difficult to obtain from outside these areas—but very easy from within them—parents have an incentive to move house for the sake of their children's education. This would be expected to be reflected in house prices. The study uses a cross-sectional sample based on two popular schools in one local education authority area, Coventry. Differences in quality of housing are dealt with by using the technique of hedonic regression and differences in location by sample selection within a block sample design. The sample was chosen from a limited number of locations spanning different catchment areas to reduce both observable and unobservable variability in nuisance effects while maximizing the variation in catchment areas. The results suggest that there are strong school catchment area effects. For one of the two popular schools we find a 20% premium and for the other a 16% premium on house prices ceteris paribus .     

教育投资收益率计量方法研究

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A Comparative Study of Different Methodologies for Fault Diagnosis in Multivariate Quality Control

Different methodologies for fault diagnosis in multivariate quality control have been proposed in recent years. These methods work in the space of the original measured variables and have performed reasonably well when there is a reduced number of mildly correlated quality and/or process variables with a well-conditioned covariance matrix. These approaches have been introduced by emphasizing their positive or negative virtues, generally on an individual basis, so it is not clear for the practitioner the best method to be used. This article provides a comprehensive study of the performance of diverse methodological approaches when tested on a large number of distinct simulated scenarios. Our primary aim is to highlight key weaknesses and strengths in these methods as well as clarifying their relationships and the requirements for their implementation in practice.     

Dealing with big data: comparing dimension reduction and shrinkage regression methods

In the past decades, the number of variables explaining observations in different practical applications increased gradually. This has led to heavy computational tasks, despite of widely using provisional variable selection methods in data processing. Therefore, more methodological techniques have appeared to reduce the number of explanatory variables without losing much of the information. In these techniques, two distinct approaches are apparent: ‘shrinkage regression’ and ‘sufficient dimension reduction’. Surprisingly, there has not been any communication or comparison between these two methodological categories, and it is not clear when each of these two approaches are appropriate. In this paper, we fill some of this gap by first reviewing each category in brief, paying special attention to the most commonly used methods in each category. We then compare commonly used methods from both categories based on their accuracy, computation time, and their ability to select effective variables. A simulation study on the performance of the methods in each category is generated as well. The selected methods are concurrently tested on two sets of real data which allows us to recommend conditions under which one approach is more appropriate to be applied to high-dimensional data.     

A Case for Better Graphics: The Unclassed Choropleth Map

In recent years a number of researchers have shown a strong interest in statistical graphics. One widely used graphical method is the “statistical map,” or what is better known in cartography as the choropleth map. A factor in the use of these maps has been the need to group data into classes, raising the obvious question of defining optimum class intervals. Computer technology now makes it possible to produce unclassed choropleth maps, minimizing quantization error. An example of the two methods is given using criminal justice statistics. The unclassed maps are more accurate with regard to quantization error and appear to be of superior visual quality     

ISCED（2011）：理论发展与分类变化

ISCED（2011）是联合国教科文组织（UNESCO）即将在全球实施的一套新的教育统计国际标准。本文分析了ISCED（2011）教育理论和分类方法的重要变化：教育理论方面,修订了教育概念、强调了非正规教育、确认了公认资格证书在教育活动中的作用、突出了高等教育的多样化;分类方法方面,构建了双变量交叉分类的框架、建立了受教育程度的分类、对教育等级分类进行了改进、采用了三级编码方法。论文最后指出,我国应在教育路径多元化、高等教育多样化、终身教育等方面予以借鉴。