Globalization,The State and Public Administration: A Theoretical Analysis with Policy Implications for Developmental States

This article discusses the relationship between globalization, the state, and public administration, with implications for developmental states. Using a political economy analysis, globalization is discussed as the latest dynamic change in the context of the continuity within the process of surplus accumulation by corporate capitalism at the global level, a phenomenon with far reaching implications for the modern state, governance, and public administration. First, the context of change and continuity is briefly discussed, followed by a presentation of several theoretical perspectives on, and meanings of, globalization as defined by different people from different disciplines. Then, the causes and consequences of globalization are discussed with implications for the state and public administration. Finally, a number of policy choices are suggested in response to globalization by developmental states, with another discussion on the changing character and role of the state under globalization with implications for the state and public administration worldwide.     

Implementation of Equity in Resource Allocation for Regional Earthquake Risk Mitigation Using Two‐Stage Stochastic Programming

This article presents a new methodology to implement the concept of equity in regional earthquake risk mitigation programs using an optimization framework. It presents a framework that could be used by decisionmakers (government and authorities) to structure budget allocation strategy toward different seismic risk mitigation measures, i.e., structural retrofitting for different building structural types in different locations and planning horizons. A two‐stage stochastic model is developed here to seek optimal mitigation measures based on minimizing mitigation expenditures, reconstruction expenditures, and especially large losses in highly seismically active countries. To consider fairness in the distribution of financial resources among different groups of people, the equity concept is incorporated using constraints in model formulation. These constraints limit inequity to the user‐defined level to achieve the equity‐efficiency tradeoff in the decision‐making process. To present practical application of the proposed model, it is applied to a pilot area in Tehran, the capital city of Iran. Building stocks, structural vulnerability functions, and regional seismic hazard characteristics are incorporated to compile a probabilistic seismic risk model for the pilot area. Results illustrate the variation of mitigation expenditures by location and structural type for buildings. These expenditures are sensitive to the amount of available budget and equity consideration for the constant risk aversion. Most significantly, equity is more easily achieved if the budget is unlimited. Conversely, increasing equity where the budget is limited decreases the efficiency. The risk‐return tradeoff, equity‐reconstruction expenditures tradeoff, and variation of per‐capita expected earthquake loss in different income classes are also presented.     

A SIMULATION MODEL OF THE HIGHER EDUCATION SYSTEM OF A STATE1

This paper describes a simulation model to estimate the enrollments and expenditures associated with various policy alternatives for the post-secondary education system of a state, with Indiana as an example. Enrollments, operating expenditures, and construction costs are predicted for every public and private school for each year until 1985. The basic model-building technique employed is regression analysis on historical data, but it is supplemented by other quantitative techniques and by experts' predictions. The model may be used to predict “most likely” future enrollments and costs, to perform sensitivity analyses to better understand the impact of various exogenous variables upon the system, and to evaluate possible policy alternatives. Including all of the schools in a state makes possible the evaluation of policy alternatives such as possible configurations of new two-year public schools, the effect of tuition changes, and the effect of enrollment ceilings for larger state universities.     

Organizing for Public Policy Effect: Aggregate Affiliated Interests in the American States*

Recent advances in the study of organizations suggest that various environmental characteristics should affect the structural characteristics of interest groups. We explore this thesis using a data set of lobbying in the American states. We use OLS regression to determine the effect of variables to measure the concepts of societal system, political culture, lobbyist registration, and state expenditures. We find that the most important variable is the total number of state lobbying efforts. In addition, as the number of lobbying increases among the states we found that a larger proportion of lobbying has been conducted by interest groups acting on their own, instead of creating affiliated aggregates. In addition, adding more variables does not increase the explanative value of the model.     

A MILP model for the long term academic staff size and composition planning in public universities

This paper proposes a model for dealing with the long term staff composition planning in public universities. University academic staff is organized in units (or departments) according to their field of expertize. The staff for each unit is distributed in a set of categories, each one characterized by their teaching hours, cost and other specificities. Besides the use for planning (and updating a plan), the model can be used to assess the impact that different strategies may have on the personnel costs and the structure of a university. The proposed model is formulated generally, so it can be applied to different types of universities attending to their characteristics. The model is applied to a real case and validated by means of a computational experiment considering several scenarios. The analysis is focused on achieving a preferable academic staff composition under service level constraints while also minimizing the associated economic expenditures considering a long term horizon. The results show that the model successes in approaching the staff composition to a previously defined pattern preferable one.     

生产性财政支出、经济增长与社会福利最大化

从理论与实证两个方面研究生产性财政支出对经济增长与社会福利的促进作用这一财政领域十分关注的问题.理论研究中,通过构建包含政府财政消费性支出和生产性支出的内生增长模型,推导了经济增长和社会福利最大化目标下各自最优的生产性财政支出结构,并分析了政府生产性财政支出在两目标下最优支出结构的差异及原因.实证研究发现,2004年～2012年间,中国的东、中、西三大经济带政府生产性支出在社会福利目标下的最优占比普遍低于经济增长目标;而在2004年～2008年间,政府实际的生产性财政支出占比还未达到两目标下的最优占比值,政府的生产性财政支出还有进一步提升的空间;但在2009年～2012年间,政府实际的生产性财政支出占比已接近甚至超过了两目标下的最优占比值,继续增加生产性财政支出将对经济增长与社会福利的提升都产生抑制作用,尤其在东部地区、中部地区更为明显.因此,在中国经济发展进入"新常态"时期,政府更需审时度势、通过适时优化财政支出以促进经济增长与社会福利的最大化.     

A MATHEMATICAL PROGRAMMING APPROACH TO SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS IN SINGLE-STAGE DECISION MAKING

This paper presents sensitivity analyses for a single-stage decision problem where an action which will maximize the expected payoff must be chosen from a finite number of actions given the states of nature, their probabilities, and the payoffs corresponding to each action and state of nature. Three types of sensitivity analysis are developed: (1) sensitivity analysis on the probabilities keeping the payoff numbers fixed, (2) sensitivity analysis on the payoffs keeping the probabilities fixed, and (3) joint sensitivity analysis on the payoffs and the probabilities. The approach is illustrated with an example. Quite often the sensitivity analysis can be conducted by solving an appropriate linear or quadratic programming problem.     

企业知识系统柔性战略的决策模型

通过形式化的模型,利用马尔可夫链过程描述企业知识状态的转移,通过对不同知识战 略变化的净现值比较,得出知识战略的优劣. 从柔性的时间维度与范围维度研究企业在3 类不 同知识状态下,所采用的知识状态变化的战略决策.     

Mortality Risks Induced by Economic Expenditures

Existing evidence shows that lower incomes are associated with higher mortality risks. This paper examines the implications for fatalities when the relationship is interpreted as an induced relationship, meaning that lower incomes will on average lead to higher mortality risks. A model is developed for estimating the number of fatalities possibly induced by economic expenditures. This model accounts for different allocations of the expenditures on family units with varying income levels. Illustrative calculations provide insights about the possible significance of fatalities induced by economic expenditures. These results suggest that some expensive regulations and programs intended to save lives may actually lead to increased fatalities. Important caveats to reduce the likelihood of misinterpreting or misusing the results are included.     

Total Economic Consequences of an Influenza Outbreak in the United States

Pandemic influenza represents a serious threat not only to the population of the United States, but also to its economy. In this study, we analyze the total economic consequences of potential influenza outbreaks in the United States for four cases based on the distinctions between disease severity and the presence/absence of vaccinations. The analysis is based on data and parameters on influenza obtained from the Centers for Disease Control and the general literature. A state‐of‐the‐art economic impact modeling approach, computable general equilibrium, is applied to analyze a wide range of potential impacts stemming from the outbreaks. This study examines the economic impacts from changes in medical expenditures and workforce participation, and also takes into consideration different types of avoidance behavior and resilience actions not previously fully studied. Our results indicate that, in the absence of avoidance and resilience effects, a pandemic influenza outbreak could result in a loss in U.S. GDP of $25.4 billion, but that vaccination could reduce the losses to $19.9 billion. When behavioral and resilience factors are taken into account, a pandemic influenza outbreak could result in GDP losses of $45.3 billion without vaccination and $34.4 billion with vaccination. These results indicate the importance of including a broader set of causal factors to achieve more accurate estimates of the total economic impacts of not just pandemic influenza but biothreats in general. The results also highlight a number of actionable items that government policymakers and public health officials can use to help reduce potential economic losses from the outbreaks.     

多级政府间的教育投入博弈分析与决策

本文采用完全信息动态博弈研究了三级政府的教育投入模型,分别为各级政府提出了决策。在该模型中,市政府先行动,接着省政府行动,最后中央政府行动。本文首先描述了基本模型;然后采用动态博弈分析了教育投入;最后,提出了最优解的算法,并举例说明各级政府怎样去做决策。     

Labour Market Policies in Times of Crisis: A Reaction Function Approach for the Period 1985–2010

This article examines the reaction function of labour market expenditure to unemployment in 24 OECD countries, over the period 1985–2010, using the OECD panel data. The level of public debt is also introduced as a factor that is likely to influence these expenditures. Using a fixed‐effect model with interaction terms, this research focuses on two periods of crisis (1992–93 and 2007–09). The results confirm the counter‐cyclical variation of labour market policy expenditures. Nevertheless, the sensitivity of labour market expenditure to the economic cycle has in general decreased and the policy mix has changed. This could result from the important labour market reforms undertaken in the last 20 years.     

Nursing home care: ensuring quality.

There are more than 17,000 nursing homes in the United States providing care for 1.7 million disabled and elderly individuals. Medicare and Medicaid paid $28 billion in 1997 for nursing home services, more than one half of all nursing home expenditures. Improvements in the quality of care in these facilities and ensuring value for public expenditures has been a long sought after goal. Recent actions by the federal government are designed to strengthen state and federal authority and processes to accomplish this goal. Physician leadership in this area is essential to its success.     

Corporate raiders don't cut investment in R & D

A focal point of the public debate over the effects of corporate mergers and acquisitions is their impact on the level of spending on long term projects. This study examines the pre-and post-merger levels of spending on R & D and the more general category of capital expenditures. Analysis of expenditures for a sample of firms drawn from the largest corporate mergers in the US during the late 1970s indicate that long term spending rises significantly in the post-merger environment. This supports the view that acquiring firms. whether hostile or friendly, recognize the relationship between such spending and firm value.     

FRAGILE STATES AND DEVELOPMENT POLICY

It is widely recognized that fragile states are key symptoms of under‐development in many parts of the world. Such states are incapable of delivering basic services to their citizens and political violence is commonplace. As of yet, mainstream development economics has not dealt in any systematic way with such concerns and the implications for development assistance. This paper puts forward a framework for analyzing fragile states and applies it to a variety development policies in different types of states.     

Revenue Management Through Dynamic Cross Selling in Call Centers

This paper models the cross‐selling problem of a call center as a dynamic service rate control problem. The question of when and to whom to cross sell is explored using this model. The analysis shows that, under the optimal policies, cross‐selling targets may be a function of the operational system state. Sufficient conditions are established for the existence of preferred calls, i.e., calls that will always generate a cross‐sell attempt. These provide guidelines in segment formation for marketing managers, and lead to a static heuristic policy. Numerical analysis establishes the value of different types of information, and different types of automation available for cross selling. Increased staffing for the same call volume is shown to have a positive and increasing return on revenue generation via cross selling, suggesting the need to staff for lower loads in call centers that aim to be revenue generators. The proposed heuristic leads to near optimal performance in a wide range of settings.     

不同阶段研发投资对企业绩效的动态效应研究:基于中国上市公司的面板数据分析

研发投资是提高企业绩效的重要途径,不同阶段的的研发投资对于企业绩效的改善存在着差异化作用。本文构建了不同阶段研发投资对企业绩效影响效应的理论模型,并以我国103家上市公司2010-2016年的相关数据为样本,从动态效应的实证分析阶段和开发阶段两个阶段的投资强度对企业绩效影响的异同,结果发现:研究阶段和开发阶段的投资对企业绩效影响均具有正向的积极影响作用,开发阶段的投资在当期对企业绩效的影响较强但不可持续,研究阶段的投资具有滞后效应并且对企业绩效的提升有比较长远的影响。因此过多关注开发阶段的投资并不能有效提高企业绩效,企业应加大研究阶段的投资,以更好地实现其在提高企业绩效中的长效作用。     

INVESTMENT AND TIME TO PLAN AND BUILD: A COMPARISON OF STRUCTURES VS. EQUIPMENT IN A PANEL OF ITALIAN FIRMS

“Time‐to‐build” models of investment expenditures play an important role in many traditional and modern theories of the business cycle, especially for explaining the dynamic propagation of shocks. We estimate the structural parameters of a time‐to‐build model using annual firm‐level investment data on equipment and structures. For expenditures on equipment, we find no evidence of time‐to‐build effects beyond one year. For expenditures on structures, by contrast, there is clear evidence of such effects in the range of two to three years. The contrast between equipment and structures is intuitively reasonable and consistent with previous results. The estimates for structures also indicate that initial‐period expenditures are low and increase as projects near completion. These results provide empirical support for including “time‐to‐plan” effects for investment in structures. More generally, these results suggest a potential source of specification error for Q models of investment and production‐based asset pricing models that ignore the time required to plan, build, and install new capital. (JEL: D24, G31, C33, C34)     

Shocks,Stocks, and Socks: Smoothing Consumption Over a Temporary Income Loss

We investigate how households in temporarily straitened circumstances due to an unemployment spell cut back on expenditures and how they spend marginal dollars of unemployment insurance (UI) benefit. Our theoretical and empirical analyses emphasize the importance of allowing for the fact that households buy durable as well as non‐durable goods. The theoretical analysis shows that in the short run households can cut back significantly on total expenditures without a significant fall in welfare if they concentrate their budget reductions on durables. We then present an empirical analysis based on a Canadian survey of workers who experienced a job separation. Exploiting changes in the unemployment insurance system over our sample period we show that cuts in UI benefits lead to reductions in total expenditure with a stronger impact on clothing than on food expenditures. Our empirical strategy allows that these expenditures may be non‐separable from employment status. The effects we find are particularly strong for households with no liquid assets before the spell started. These qualitative findings are in precise agreement with the theoretical predictions. (JEL: D11, D12, D91, J65)