Comment on ‘The random variation in rates based on total enumeration of events’ by J. R. Udry,C. Teddlie,C. M. Suchindran

This comment builds on the work of Udry et al., developing a model of random variation of vital rates in small geographical areas. The model is based on the division of the variance of vital rates into three parts; that which would occur in a homogenous population; that due to population heterogeneity; and that due to yearly fluctuations in the underlying basis for the mean value of the probability of the vital event in question. Contrary to Udry et al., this model demonstrates that population heterogeneity must decrease the overall vital rate variance. Using birth rates presented in Udry et al., a test of the new model demonstrates the importance of the third factor, yearly fluctuations, in determining year-to-year variation in birth rates.     

Trends in U.S. adult chronic disease mortality, 1960–1999: age,period, and cohort variations

In this paper, I examine temporal changes in U.S. adult mortality by chronic disease cause of death and by sex over a 40-year period in the second half of the twentieth century. I apply age-period-cohort (APC) analyses that combine conventional approaches and a new method of model estimation to simultaneously account for age, period, and cohort variations in mortality rates for four leading causes of deaths, including heart disease, stroke, lung cancer, and breast cancer. The results show that large reductions in mortality since the late 1960s continued well into the late 1990s and that these reductions were predominately contributed by cohort effects. Cohort effects are found to differ by specific causes of death examined, but they generally show substantial survival improvements. Implications of these results are discussed with regard to demographic theories of mortality reductions, differential cohort accumulation of health capital and lifetime exposures to socioeconomic and behavioral risk factors, and period changes in diagnostic techniques and medical treatment.     

The population statistics of China,A.D. 2–1953

Chinese population statistics are collated from the time of the Western Han Dynasty (A.D. 2) to 19 5 3, including statistics of population and households for provinces as well as for China as a whole. Evidence bearing on the definitions of the statistics, methods of compilation, and reliability of the figures as measures of population size and change, is summarized. An "emended series " of population totals for China proper, A.D. 2 to 1953 is presented, excluding figures which are clearly defective.     

Immigrant residential segregation in U.S. metropolitan areas, 1990–2000

This paper examines the extent of spatial assimilation among immigrants of different racial and ethnic origins. We use restricted data from the 1990 and 2000 censuses to calculate the levels of dissimilarity by race and Hispanic origin, nativity, and year of entry, and then run multivariate models to examine these relationships. The findings provide broad support for spatial assimilation theory. Foreign-born Hispanics, Asians, and blacks are more segregated from native-born non-Hispanic whites than are the U.S.-born of these groups. The patterns for Hispanics and Asians can be explained by the average characteristics of the foreign-born that are generally associated with higher levels of segregation, such as lower levels of income, English language ability, and home ownership. We also find that immigrants who have been in the United States for longer periods are generally less segregated than new arrivals, and once again, much of this difference can be attributed to the characteristics of immigrants. However, patterns also vary across groups. Levels of segregation are much higher for black immigrants than for Asian, Hispanic, and white immigrants. In addition, because black immigrants are, on average, of higher socioeconomic status than native-born blacks, such characteristics do not help explain their very high levels of segregation.     

Social indicators of marital instability,U.S.A., 1920–1969

A social indicators model which included demographic variables (birth rate and aged child ratio), economic variable (unemployment) and marriage rates (control variable) was utilized in explaining changes in divorce rates over time. Analysis of time series data for two distinctive periods in the U.S.A. (1920–1940 and 1946–1969) revealed the following significant results:

1. Demographic changes in the age structure of the population while controlling for marriage rates explains significantly larger amounts of the variance in marital instability than economic changes alone (unemployment).
2. In the post-World War II era unemployment was not found to be a statistically significant predictor of marital instability when control for demographic changes were established.
3. In the post-World War II era marriage rates appear to be a significant predictor of divorce rates when control for demographic changes were maintained.
4. In the post-World War II era marriage rates were found to be more sensitive to changes in economic conditions than marital instability (divorce rate).

     

Mother’s,Household, and Community U.S. Migration Experience and Infant Mortality in Rural and Urban Mexico

This study explores rural and urban differences in the relationship between U.S. migration experience measured at the individual, household, and community levels and individual-level infant mortality outcomes in a national sample of recent births in Mexico. Using 2000 Mexican Census data and multi-level regression models, we find that women’s own U.S. migration experience is associated with lower odds of infant mortality in both rural and urban Mexico, possibly reflecting a process of healthy migrant selectivity. Household migration has mixed blessings for infant health in rural places: remittances are beneficial for infant survival, but recent out-migration is disruptive. Recent community-level migration experience is not significantly associated with infant mortality overall, although in rural places, there is some evidence that higher levels of community migration are associated with lower infant mortality. Household- and community-level migration have no relationship with infant mortality in urban places. Thus, international migration is associated with infant outcomes in Mexico in fairly complex ways, and the relationships are expressed most profoundly in rural areas of Mexico.

Immigrants and natives in U.S. science and engineering occupations, 1994–2006

Between 1994 and 2006, the ratio of foreign-born scientists and engineers (FSE) to native scientists and engineers (NSE) doubled. I decompose this change into a migration effect (which accounts for migration in general), a proportional college effect (which accounts for the relative proportions of college graduates among migrant and native workers), and a proportional science and engineering (S&E) effect (which accounts for the relative proportions of S&Es among migrant and native college-educated workers). Results show that the migration effect explains about three-quarters of the increase in FSE/NSE during the entire period under study. The proportional S&E effect, which captures changes in the ratio as a result of immigration of S&Es in excess of what would be expected from general migration alone, was largest in 1995–1998, which were years of sustained economic growth. Conversely, a slower economy coincided with a declining proportional S&E effect after 2000. Increases in the annual cap on H-1B visas, an important avenue of entry for foreign-born S&Es, had little effect on the ratio. In short, during 1994–2006, the association between economic swings and the specific, more than proportional migration of S&Es was much stronger than the association between the latter and changes in the H-1B cap.     

Incarcerating death: Mortality in U.S. state correctional facilities, 1985–1998

Using data from the U.S. Bureau of Justice Statistics and Census Bureau, I estimate death rates of working-age prisoners and nonprisoners by sex and race. Incarceration was more detrimental to females in comparison to their male counterparts in the period covered by this study. White male prisoners had higher death rates than white males who were not in prison. Black male prisoners, however, consistently exhibited lower death rates than black male nonprisoners did. Additionally, the findings indicate that while the relative difference in mortality levels of white and black males was quite high outside of prison, it essentially disappeared in prison. Notably, removing deaths caused by firearms and motor vehicles in the nonprison population accounted for some of the mortality differential between black prisoners and nonprisoners. The death rates of the other groups analyzed suggest that prison is an unhealthy environment; yet, prison appears to be a healthier place than the typical environment of the nonincarcerated black male population. These findings suggest that firearms and motor vehicle accidents do not sufficiently explain the higher death rates of black males, and they indicate that a lack of basic healthcare may be implicated in the death rates of black males not incarcerated.     

Metamorphosis Afloat: Pirate Ships,Politics and Process,c.1680–1730

Abstract

This paper follows some late-seventeenth and early eighteenth century pirate ships, focusing upon the moments when these most enigmatic and elusive of ocean-going vessels were appropriated and inhabited by mutinous mariners who literally risked their necks to take charge of them. This paper builds upon recent work in mobilities and oceanic studies which is developing more materialist perspectives as a means for better understanding the seas and ships as lived, dynamic spaces. By exploring some of the ways that pirate ships were crafted and modified, and then occupied, at the turn of the eighteenth century, this paper contributes new perspectives on the formation of piratical spaces and identities, and in the process, the role of mobilities and spatialities in creating spaces afloat. The paper argues for a greater acknowledgement of the role of process in the making of space and mobility at sea as a means of better understanding the complex geographies of the pirate ship and the experiences of those who sailed aboard them.     

Distinguishing the geographic levels and social dimensions of U.S. metropolitan segregation, 1960–2000

In this article, we assess trends in residential segregation in the United States from 1960 to 2000 along several dimensions of race and ethnicity, class, and life cycle and present a method for attributing segregation to nested geographic levels. We measured segregation for metropolitan America using the Theil index, which is additively decomposed into contributions of regional, metropolitan, center city-suburban, place, and tract segregation. This procedure distinguishes whether groups live apart because members cluster in different neighborhoods, communities, metropolitan areas, or regions. Substantively, we found that the segregation of blacks decreased considerably after 1960 largely because neighborhoods became more integrated, but the foreign born became more segregated largely because they concentrated in particular metropolitan areas. Class segregation increased between 1970 and 1990 mainly because the affluent increasingly clustered in specific metropolitan areas and in specific municipalities within metropolitan areas. The unmarried increasingly congregated in center cities. The main purpose of this article is to describe and illustrate this multilevel approach to studying segregation.     

Reassessing and Revising Commuting Zones for 2010: History,Assessment, and Updates for U.S. ‘Labor-Sheds’ 1990–2010

This paper employs commuter flow data from the 1990 and 2000 Decennial Censuses, and the 2006–2010 American Community Survey to replicate, evaluate, and extend the delineation of commuting zones first proposed by Tolbert and Killian (Labor Market Areas for the United States, 1987). Commuting zones offer a valuable tool for research on regional economies and have long served rural sociologists, economists, and geographers interested in a representation of the economy that acknowledges a connection between urban and rural areas and the capacity of economic systems to cross state lines. Our delineations provide both an update in the form of new delineations for 2010 and a revised set of 1990 and 2000 delineations that benefit from a consistent methodology across decades. We also provide a set of tools for comparing delineations across methods and over time. In presenting our revised delineations, we shed light on the role of expert opinion in the original delineations, the strengths and weaknesses of the original method, and offer suggestions for further revision of this tool that may better reflect the theoretical conception of commuting zones.     

Trends in Work–Family Context Among U.S. Women by Education Level, 1976 to 2011

This study compares trends in work–family context by education level from 1976 to 2011 among U.S. women. The major aim is to assess whether differences in work–family context by education level widened, narrowed, or persisted. We used data from the 1976–2011 March Current Population Surveys on women aged 25–64 (n = 1,597,914). We compare trends in four work–family forms by education level within three race/ethnic groups. The work–family forms reflect combinations of marital and employment status among women with children at home. Trends in the four work–family forms exhibited substantial heterogeneity by education and race/ethnicity. Educational differences in the work–family forms widened mainly among white women. Compared with more-educated peers, white women without a high school credential became increasingly less likely to be married, to be employed, to have children at home, and to combine these roles. In contrast, educational differences in the work–family forms generally narrowed among black women and were directionally mixed among Hispanic women. Only one form—unmarried and employed with children at home—became more strongly linked to a woman’s education level within all three race/ethnic groups. This form carries an elevated risk of work–family conflict and its prevalence increased moderately during the 35-year period. Taken together, the trends underscore recent calls to elevate work–family policy on the national agenda.     

Still Trapped in the U.S. Media’s Closet: Representations of Gender-Variant,Pre-Adolescent Children

Many studies have examined representations of gay, lesbian, bisexual, and transgender (LGBT) people in the U.S. media. Yet they have centered on portrayals of adults or teenagers. This investigation considered a potential LGBT population that has been neglected in media research, namely gender-variant, preadolescent children. Surveying the U.S. media at large but with an emphasis on television, the article reveals that gender-creative youth are nearly invisible. When depictions of gender-variant kids do appear, they often focus on either children who express extreme gender dysphoria or in some way signify the “tragic queer” motif (or both). The implications of these findings are discussed.     

China Commemorates T.R.Malthus

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