多个企业同时博弈的动态古诺模型的长期产量解研究

考虑到多阶段的博弈过程需要涉及长期利润的特点,建立了两个以长期利润为目标的多个耐用品企业同时博弈的动态古诺模型(长期非合作模型和长期竞争均衡模型)。通过对多个模型求解结果的比较与分析可知,长期竞争均衡模型下的市场竞争最为激烈,但还是优于短期竞争均衡模型;当然,它依旧劣于非完全竞争情形下的长期非合作模型和长期合作模型。     

基于广告-研发的供应链合作博弈分析

对生产商投资研发、销售商投资广告的优势互补的异质型供应链合作问题,构建了博弈模型.分析论证了生产商在斯坦克尔伯格均衡时的收益大于纳什均衡的收益,而且当其边际收益足够大时才会承担一定比例的销售商广告费用.而在纳什均衡中生产商不会承担广告费用.销售商在斯坦克尔伯格均衡时的收益与纳什均衡的收益的大小由具体参数值确定.生产商的研发投入在纳什均衡和斯坦克尔伯格均衡时均与其边际收益正相关,而销售商的广告投入与其边际收益在纳什均衡中正相关,但在斯坦克尔伯格均衡时负相关.进一步论证了博弈的合作均衡相对于非合作博弈均衡具有帕累托优势,并利用罗宾斯坦讨价还价模型对增加的利润进行了分配,得出一种帕累托最优合作方案.最后将合作拓展到多销售商情形.     

转轨时期国有企业激励机制的沿革与经营者行为的选择

本文是以转轨时期国有企业激励机制的演化与国有企业经营者行为的选择为分析对象.研究发现:国有企业激励机制的演化是一个渐变过程,当一个"旧"的激励机制无法满足国家的支付,政府不得不被动地修正自己的策略,机制的沿革是"渐进式的帕累托改进".这是理性的政府和国有企业经营者在不完全信息条件下进行动态博弈的必然结果.帕累托改进主要体现在企业的激励机制上.提高外部市场环境的效率和完善经营者选择机制是今后激励机制改革的方向.     

基于有限知识和理性的双寡头战略定产纳什均衡问题研究

经典古诺寡头模型以及目前相关的寡头定产竞争模型最致命的缺陷是对寡头博弈目标的假设、时序假设、有限理性与知识的假设与现实严重不符.本文依据新的博弈条件假设,构建了一种对现实决策情形具有较强的普适性的描述性博弈结构模型.该模型能够对现实中的主导与从属型厂商之间、存在先知先觉博弈者的战略定产决策问题进行很好地描述,且经证明经典古诺博弈模型是该模型的一种特例.在此基础上,本文证明了:一般情况下,斗争策略是基于战略利益的双寡头定产竞争的纳什均衡策略,并找到了双寡头战略调整的聚点均衡;发现了:存在战略扩展阻尼条件的先期决策寡头的阻尼纳什均衡,并给出了该问题的构造性的证明和仿真算例.     

制造商规模不经济的链与链竞争两部定价合同

基于链与链数量竞争及制造商生产规模不经济的环境,以批发价格合同为基准,探索两部定价合同选择的绩效改进条件、博弈均衡特征和局限性,并进一步分析市场竞争强度、规模不经济参数对合同选择行为的影响.研究发现:不管竞争对手供应链是否采用两部定价合同,本供应链通过采用两部定价合同并把固定收费调节在适当范围内,可使制造商和零售商同时实现帕累托(Pareto)绩效改进.值得指出的是,通过适当调节固定收费,两部定价合同成为实现制造商和零售商帕累托绩效改进的占优均衡合同,但该固定收费的选择严重依赖于竞争强度和规模不经济的程度.当规模不经济程度相对较强且严重依赖于数量竞争强度时,两部定价合同是实现供应链系统绩效改进的占优均衡合同.     

不同权力结构下TPL服务增值的供应链决策与效率评价

在供应商批发价格内生、TPL服务增值情形下,研究由供应商、TPL和零售商组成的三级供应链决策与效率评价。基于不同权力结构,构建了TPL和供应商主导的序贯非合作博弈模型,证明了博弈均衡解均存在且唯一。研究表明：两种权力结构下系统利润均出现损失,TPL主导下零售商的订购量、TPL的物流服务水平及二者比值均低于供应商主导的情形,故TPL主导致使供应链运作效率更低。为提高系统运作效率,以TPL的利润结构为出发点,在两种权力结构下均分别引入TPL物流服务费用及成本分摊策略,发现：费用分摊策略下,供应商通过操控批发价格抑制了费用分摊的影响,从而造成策略失效;而成本分摊策略下,当分摊系数满足特定条件时,能够提高两种权力结构下的系统效率以及实现系统帕累托改进。最优的分摊系数仅取决于各权力结构下,无分摊策略时TPL和系统的期望利润。     

不完全信息下多阶段移动应用产品与服务合作的可更新契约

考虑不完全信息下由提供移动应用产品与服务的ERP厂商、APP厂商与客户企业组成的产品服务供应链,针对ERP厂商与APP厂商产品服务合作中存在的逆向选择与道德风险问题,构建两阶段的动态博弈模型,分析了APP厂商隐藏与披露能力信息对产品与服务质量、供应链系统绩效与ERP厂商利润的影响,提出了信息披露、收益共享的单阶段契约与存在契约变更的两阶段契约激励策略,比较了两种契约的价值。研究表明：通过在产品开发阶段观察APP厂商的契约菜单选择以及获得的产品质量信息,甄别APP厂商的能力信息,在服务阶段进行契约变更,有利于提高产品与服务质量,降低ERP厂商风险,使供应链系统利润与ERP厂商自身利润实现帕累托改善。最后,通过算例对研究结论进行了直观考察和说明。     

基于工期协调的项目公司与承包商收益激励模型

从项目公司和承包商双层角度,考虑项目公司通过显性收益激励契约手段与单一标段承包商之间就工期目标优化问题进行协调决策.假设决策过程是一个完全信息的动态博弈过程,基于博弈论并应用二层规划方法建立了以项目公司为主方、承包商为从方的Stackelberg主从递阶收益激励模型,采用逆向归纳法并引入拉格朗日函数对问题进行分情形讨论,设计了遗传算法求解该非线性规划问题的子博弈精练纳什均衡解.算例结果表明,项目公司通过提供一定的收益激励而非传统指令性手段促使承包商在可压缩范围内积极主动地去压缩项目工期,可以实现项目工期控制目标协调优化和双方收益目标的帕累托改善.     

我国会计准则变迁的博弈分析

会计准则具有经济后果,是利益相关者之间利益冲突与协调的结果,在会计准则的变迁过程中,原有会计准则的均衡状态被打破,与准则相关的利益集团围绕新的会计准则制定展开新一轮的博弈并达新的均衡.如此反复循环,向会计准则的理想状态--帕累托均衡逼近,实现社会资源的最优配置.     

双边市场中用户满意度与平台战略的选择

目前,有关双边市场理论的研究多在单期博弈模型中展开,并未在多期的情况下考虑平台的动态定价问题.显然,这与两边用户总是在平台中展开多次交易,平台总是面临动态定价的客观现实相违背.基于此,本文构建了一个双寡头两期动态博弈模型,通过引入用户满意度,研究了双边平台在不同定价策略(统一定价策略和歧视定价策略)和不同战略(短期战略和长期战略)情形下的最优定价,比较了策略间和战略间的差异性和有效性.研究发现: 第一期获得较大市场份额并不能保证平台在第二期竞争中占据优势地位,也不能保证获得较高重复购买率;歧视定价策略比统一定价策略更有利于平台获得较高利润,而不利于两边用户效用和社会福利水平的提升;(歧视定价策略,歧视定价策略)是帕累托上策均衡解;两期社会福利总水平仅仅与平台的定价策略有关,而与平台的战略无关.     

Markov Perfect Industry Dynamics With Many Firms

We propose an approximation method for analyzing Ericson and Pakes (1995)‐style dynamic models of imperfect competition. We define a new equilibrium concept that we call oblivious equilibrium, in which each firm is assumed to make decisions based only on its own state and knowledge of the long‐run average industry state, but where firms ignore current information about competitors' states. The great advantage of oblivious equilibria is that they are much easier to compute than are Markov perfect equilibria. Moreover, we show that, as the market becomes large, if the equilibrium distribution of firm states obeys a certain “light‐tail” condition, then oblivious equilibria closely approximate Markov perfect equilibria. This theorem justifies using oblivious equilibria to analyze Markov perfect industry dynamics in Ericson and Pakes (1995)‐style models with many firms.     

CLUSTERING IN N‐PLAYER PREEMPTION GAMES

We study a complete information preemption game in continuous time. A finite number of firms decide when to make an irreversible, observable investment. Upon investment, a firm receives flow profits, which decrease in the number of firms that have invested. The cost of investment declines over time exogenously. We characterize the subgame‐perfect equilibrium outcome, which is unique up to a permutation of players. When the preemption race among late investors is sufficiently intense, the preemption incentive for earlier investors disappears, and two or more investments occur at the same time. We identify a sufficient condition in terms of model parameters: clustering of investments occurs if the flow profits from consecutive investments are sufficiently close. This shows how clustering can occur in the absence of coordination failures, informational spillovers, or positive payoff externalities.     

Identification and Estimation of a Discrete Game of Complete Information

We discuss the identification and estimation of discrete games of complete information. Following Bresnahan and Reiss (1990, 1991), a discrete game is a generalization of a standard discrete choice model where utility depends on the actions of other players. Using recent algorithms to compute all of the Nash equilibria to a game, we propose simulation‐based estimators for static, discrete games. We demonstrate that the model is identified under weak functional form assumptions using exclusion restrictions and an identification at infinity approach. Monte Carlo evidence demonstrates that the estimator can perform well in moderately sized samples. As an application, we study entry decisions by construction contractors to bid on highway projects in California. We find that an equilibrium is more likely to be observed if it maximizes joint profits, has a higher Nash product, uses mixed strategies, and is not Pareto dominated by another equilibrium.     

Coordinating Production and Marketing with Dynamic Transfer Prices

Decentralized decision making is a fact in the modern business world accompanied by extensive research that looks into its consequences for overall firm profits. We study the interactions of decentralized marketing and operations divisions in a corporation and explore their impact on overall firm profits in the case with and without coordination of the two decentralized units. We assume that the marketing department is responsible for the price that influences the demand (sales), and the operations department is responsible for the production rate. We allow for backlogging over time. We model the interdependence involving marketing and operations decisions as a non‐cooperative differential game, with the two divisions as strategically interacting players. We find that, without coordination, strategic interactions of marketing and production result in inefficiencies that can quantitatively be substantial. Next, we introduce a dynamic transfer pricing scheme as a coordination device and evaluate if it establishes efficient (first best and fully coordinated) outcomes. We show that if production and marketing play a game with pre‐commitment strategies, there exists a dynamic transfer price that efficiently (fully) coordinates decentralized decision making and hence results in Pareto‐efficient company profits. If the two decentralized divisions play a game without pre‐commitment, dynamic transfer prices can partially coordinate decentralized decision making but fail to fully eliminate overall inefficiencies arising from strategic interactions among decentralized divisions.     

混合寡头竞争条件下的购买势力研究

基于一个具有购买势力的连锁企业在若干个相互分割的市场上分别与一个没有购买势力的地方企业进行Cournot竞争的经济学模型,我们分别讨论了连锁企业是私营企业和部分国有企业时,购买势力对企业利润、消费者剩余以及社会福利的影响。研究表明:当连锁企业是私营企业时,随着其购买势力的增强,其企业利润不断增加,消费者剩余及社会福利不断降低,而上游企业与地方企业的利润变动则取决于地方企业国有股的比重和连锁企业购买势力的大小;当连锁企业是部分国有企业时,随着连锁企业购买势力的增大,连锁企业的利润、消费者剩余以及社会福利会持续升高,而上游企业与地方企业的利润持续降低。     

寡头市场的激励机制与企业兼并

本文采用Sklivas的管理者报酬是利润和销售收入的线性合成形式,运用子博弈完美均衡博弈方法,分析了激励机制在寡头竞争市场上的作用,指出企业业主对其管理者运用激励机制,提高了企业的生产效率,加强了市场的竞争.管理者不仅要注重企业的利润,还要注重企业的市场占有率.另外,分析了激励机制对企业兼并前后的影响,指出了企业的发展战略目标.     

基于M型组织结构的企业内部激励机制与兼并效应

在寡头竞争环境下,引入企业内部激励机制激励参数变量,建立了一个替代性产品M型制下企业兼并二阶段Cournot竞争博弈模型:第一阶段,兼并企业采用M型制并选择基于利润和销售收入内部激励机制的激励参数;在第二阶段,兼并后各企业的决策者根据企业提供的内部激励机制进行产量竞争。在此基础上,分析了兼并对各企业利润、产量与价格带来的影响。证明对于替代性产品行业,存在一个兼并临界规模(1)只有当兼并规模小于临界规模时,兼并企业才适合采用M型组织结构;且企业普遍存在兼并动机,产品替代化程度越高,兼并动力越大;(2)当兼并企业采用M型组织结构且兼并规模小于临界规模时,兼并对外部企业产生负外部性,但对消费者带来有利影响。本文还进一步讨论了兼并企业采用M型组织结构时内部激励机制激励参数的选择问题,证明激励参数受行业利润率、兼并规模与产品替代性程度的影响。     

Repeated Games with Differential Time Preferences

When players have identical time preferences, the set of feasible repeated game payoffs coincides with the convex hull of the underlying stage- game payoffs. Moreover, all feasible and individually rational payoffs can be sustained by equilibria if the players are sufficiently patient. Neither of these facts generalizes to the case of different time preferences. First, players can mutually benefit from trading payoffs across time. Hence, the set of feasible repeated game payoffs is typically larger than the convex hull of the underlying stage-game payoffs. Second, it is not usually the case that every trade plan that guarantees individually rational payoffs can be sustained by an equilibrium, no matter how patient the players are. This paper provides a simple characterization of the sets of Nash and of subgame perfect equilibrium payoffs in two-player repeated games.     

Product Assortment and Price Competition under Multinomial Logit Demand

The role of assortment planning and pricing in shaping sales and profits of retailers is well documented and studied in monopolistic settings. However, such a role remains relatively unexplored in competitive environments. In this study, we study equilibrium behavior of competing retailers in two settings: (i) when prices are exogenously fixed, and retailers compete in assortments only; and (ii) when retailers compete jointly in assortment and prices. For this, we model consumer choice using a multinomial Logit, and assume that each retailer selects products from a predefined set, and faces a display constraint. We show that when the sets of products available to retailers do not overlap, there always exists one equilibrium that Pareto‐dominates all others, and that such an outcome can be reached through an iterative process of best responses. A direct corollary of our results is that competition leads a firm to offer a broader set of products compared to when it is operating as a monopolist, and to broader offerings in the market compared to a centralized planner. When some products are available to all retailers, that is, assortments might overlap, we show that display constraints drive equilibrium existence properties.     

A Theory of the Stakeholder Corporation

There is a widely held view within the general public that large corporations should act in the interests of a broader group of agents than just their shareholders (the stakeholder view). This paper presents a framework where this idea can be justified. The point of departure is the observation that a large firm typically faces endogenous risks that may have a significant impact on the workers it employs and the consumers it serves. These risks generate externalities on these stakeholders which are not internalized by shareholders. As a result, in the competitive equilibrium, there is under‐investment in the prevention of these risks. We suggest that this under‐investment problem can be alleviated if firms are instructed to maximize the total welfare of their stakeholders rather than shareholder value alone (stakeholder equilibrium). The stakeholder equilibrium can be implemented by introducing new property rights (employee rights and consumer rights) and instructing managers to maximize the total value of the firm (the value of these rights plus shareholder value). If there is only one firm, the stakeholder equilibrium is Pareto optimal. However, this is not true with more than one firm and/or heterogeneous agents, which illustrates some of the limits of the stakeholder model.