A survey of recent Belgian population policy

In this article, an outline of the demographic situation of Belgium is given, stressing the different situation of the Walloon and Flemish communities. Family allowance policy in Belgium is described, and its status in a general scheme of social security legislation assessed. It is shown that family allowances have been regarded as part of a general system of social security rather than as part of population policy.     

Seasonality of children's residential mobility: A research note

Parents are often advised to schedule changes of residence for the summer so that children do not change schools during the regular school year. But very little research has been done on seasonality of children's moves and whether families that move off season differ from those that move in the summer. The child supplement to the 1988 National Health Interview Survey offers an opportunity to examine the degree of seasonality of children's mobility and to analyze characteristics that increase or decrease the probability of moving during the summer months. We find that many variables included in studies of differential mobility exhibit seasonal effects, but in a multivariate model age of child (beyond 7 or 8 years old), long-distance moves, a highly educated mother, and race that is not Black most strongly raise the odds of moving in the summer.An earlier version of this paper was presented at the annual meeting of the Southern Demographic Association, New Orleans, Louisiana, 21–23 October 1993.     

Family structure,residential mobility,and school dropout: A research note

This paper examines the hypothesis that high levels of residential mobility among nonintact families account for part of the well-known association between living in a nonintact family and dropping out of high school. Children from single-parent families and stepfamilies are more likely than children from two-parent families to move during the school year. As much as 30% of the difference in the risk of dropping out between children from stepfamilies and children from intact families can be explained by differences in residential mobility. Previously, mechanisms explaining school failure on the part of children in nonintact families were more plausible for children in single-parent families than for children in stepfamilies; high levels of residential mobility apply to both groups of children. In addition, residential mobility lends itself to manipulation by public policy, with potentially remedial effects for vulnerable children. Earlier versions of this paper were presented at the 1990 meetings of the American Sociological Association, held in Washington DC, and at the 1991 meetings of the Eastern Sociological Society held in Providence. We are grateful to Andrew Cherlin, Melvin Kohn, Gary Sandefur, and several anonymous referees for their valuable comments, to Robert Davis for his computational assistance, and to Tobey H. Sohn and Teresa A. Withers for secretarial help. Support to the senior author was provided by the National Institute on Aging under Grant HD 19375-03 and by the W.T. Grant Faculty Scholars Award. Support for computing facilities was provided by a grant to the Hopkins Population Center (PD30 H006268-19). 1994 Population Association of America     

Sources of neighborhood residential change: A micro-level analysis

Neighborhood residential change is analyzed at a micro decision-making level with emphasis upon the resident's subjective evaluation of his physical/social neighborhood environment. Two conflicting modes affecting a residential change are discovered in the Israeli neighborhood examined: a strong social attachment inhibiting a move and the perceived deteriorating physical environment encouraging a residential shift. Clarifying these phenomena strongly suggests that the negative subjective evaluation of the immediate physical environment acts as a major catalyst in provoking a move. Restraint upon changes, despite the perceived conditions of the physical environment, depends greatly upon the intensity of the resident's social attachment to their neighborhood. The implications of the analysis of neighborhood stability and change are then discussed.     

Roles,race and subjective well-being: A longitudinal analysis of elderly men

The basic contention of this paper is that research on subjective well-being would benefit from an integration of theory and research from other studies of subjective states, such as mental and physical health. Toward that end, we present results of an analysis of the impact of race and social roles on subjective well-being in a nationally representative sample of elderly men. The findings demonstrate that particular role configurations have an effect on happiness and that these effects are different for blacks and whites. Theoretical implications of these findings for subjective well-being research and role accumulation theory are discussed.     

A Model for Inferring the Voluntary and involuntary causes of residential segregation

It is clear that both voluntary and involuntary forces normally contribute to the residential segregation existing between groups. For the most part, the contribution of each dimension has not been determined. Rather, researchers operate as if either one or the other force is operating. In the United States, for example, black-white segregation is assumed to be imposed by whites on blacks, as if the latter were themselves totally indifferent to the racial composition in their areas of residence. On the other hand, it is assumed that segregation between white ethnic groups is at present purely a voluntary matter. In an earlier period, it was assumed that their segregation was both voluntary (reflecting desires to be among compatriots) and involuntary (reflecting the imposition of restrictions on residential movement by other groups as well as economic forces). But it has not been possible for investigators to determine the relative importance of each factor. Using asymmetrical segregation indexes, a rudimentary procedure is proposed for determining the relative importance of voluntary and involuntary forces operating to generate a given level of segregation. Data based on Black, Anglo, and Spanish residential patterns are then considered in terms of the proposed model.     

The effects of race,ethnicity, and age on obesity

About 30% of Americans are obese, which is roughly a 100% increase from 25 years ago. This study examines the effects of changes in the racial/ethnic composition and age distribution on the prevalence of obesity, identifies the portion of the increase in obesity caused by these changes, and projects the effects of future racial/ethnic and age changes on obesity using National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey data. Results indicate that racial/ethnic composition changes and age distribution changes have accounted for about 10% of the increase in obesity over the last 25 years. However, future racial/ethnic and age changes are not projected to increase obesity substantially.      

Evolution of recent economic-demographic modeling: A synthesis

This paper develops a flexible framework for modeling population's role in economic growth by assessing and extending a rendering suggested by several Harvard economists. Our framework includes a ``productivity' model explaining output-per-worker growth and a ``translation' model translating that growth into per-capita terms. We specify a core economic model and several ``enriched' demographic variants that include dependency, size, and density. Regressions using a cross-country panel spanning the period 1960-1995 reveal that combined impacts of demographic change have accounted for approximately 20% of per capita output growth impacts, with larger shares in Asia and Europe. An earlier draft of this paper was presented at a conference on ``Population Change, Labor Market Transition and Economic Development in Asia,' Institute of Economics, Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan, 6–9 December 2002. A pre-publication version of this paper will be presented at a joint conference (by COE/JEPA) entitled ``Towards a new economic paradigm: Declining population growth, labor market transition and economic development under globalization,' held at the Awaji Yumebutai International Conference Center, Kobe, Japan, 17–19 December 2005. We have benefited from comments by Michelle Connolly, Andrew Mason, Pietro Peretto, Warren Sanderson, Alessandro Tarozzi, Jeffrey Williamson, and two anonymous referees. Responsible editor: Junsen Zhang.     

The influence of mumber and ages of children on residential mobility

Married couples without children are more geographically mobile than those with children, at least through age 45. Among husband-wife couples with children, ages of children exercises a consistent mobility differential; when age of family head is controlled for, families with children under 6 years old only are the most mobile both within and between counties, followed by those with children under 6 and 6–17 years old, and followed in turn by families with children 6–17 years old only. The relationship between number of children and the probability of moving within counties has a reverse J-shape for family heads at each age under 45; after age 45 the relationship assumes a more normal J shape. Number of children is inversely related to the probability of migrating (moving between counties) for husband-wife families in which the husband is under 35; after age 35 the relationship is erratic. The effect of ages of children generally holds for each size of family. Female family heads with children are generally more geographically mobile than male family heads (wife present) at the same age and with the same number and ages of children present.     

Some further observations on the index of residential differentiation

The relationship between the index of residential differentiation (RDI), a recently introduced measure of residential segregation which is designed to summarize the distribution of c social groups in a single index, and the indices of dissimilarity (D) and segregation (SI) is examined. It is demonstrated that RDI is a natural extension of D, and that when c = 2, RDI = D; when c> 2, it is possible to stipulate RDI in terms of SI, but it is not possible to stipulate RDI in a straightforward manner in terms of D. An adjusted RDI is then suggested in which random segregation rather than complete desegregation is used as the baseline.     

A meta-analysis of research on adolescent contraceptive use

Meta-analysis was used to summarize the results of 134 studies of adolescent contraceptive use in relation to two major explanatory models, the career model and the decision model. There was evidence in support of both models, although there has been less research conducted on variables related to the decision model. The major variables found to affect young women's contraceptive use were partner influence to use contraception, acceptance of one's sexuality, future orientation, positive attitudes toward contraception, an exclusive sexual relationship, and frequency of intercourse. The major variables affecting young men's contraceptive use were partner influence, frequency of intercourse, and positive attitudes toward contraception; however, there was relatively little research on young men compared to young women. A number of possible future directions for research are noted.We would like to thank Nancy Adler and Catherine Chilman for their comments on an earlier version of this article. Portions of this research were presented at the 1984 meeting of the American Psychological Association.Requests for reprints should be addressed to Bernard E. Whitley, Jr., Department of Psychological Science, Ball State University, Muncie, Indiana, 47306.     

GIS without GPS: new opportunities in technology and survey research to link people and place

This paper presents innovative ways to relate survey data to GIS maps, thereby making the connection of people and place more accessible for the research community. Based on data from rural areas in the Brazilian Amazon, we describe a successful effort to sample households while linking farm-level data to property boundaries, these boundaries generated from subjects’ interpretations of satellite images on a computer screen. The sampling framework is based on legislation requiring farmers to report to a government agency in a four-week period, and the farmers’ input allows for a more efficient means of identifying property boundaries as compared to GPS. We show that the resulting sampling is statistically representative. We discuss the potential of this association of institutional design and low-cost methods of data collection to allow for more cost-effective generation of spatial data and of geospatial analysis.     

Objective and subjective determinants of prospective residential mobility

The increasing interest in subjective as well as objective measures of well-being raises the issue of the relative importance of these two different types of measures when they are included as independent variables in analytical or predictive models. In the research reported here, survey data are used to evaluate the relative importance of objective and subjective indicators in providing an understanding of why households desire to move. Overall, it is found that subjective indicators add considerably to the explanation of mobility inclinations over and above that contributed by objective indicators. A comparison of explanatory powers for the full sets of objective and subjective predictors within two length of residence subgroups indicates some interesting differences, however. Objective and subjective predictors are close in explanatory power for longer-term residents, while subjective measures are considerably more important for shorter-term residents.     

Perspectives on the recent upturn in divorce and remarriage

The divorce rate per thousand married women under 45 years of age in the United States increased by two–thirds between the mid-1950’s and 1970. During the same period, the remarriage rate per thousand divorced or widowed women under 55 years of age rose about one-third. By contrast, first marriages per thousand single women under 45 years of age declined by one-tenth since the mid-1950’s. These changes reinforce the general impression that a fundamental modification of life styles and values relating to marriage has been taking place. An analysis of nationwide data on birth cohorts from 1900 to 1954 demonstrates that early marriage has declined since the mid-1950’s but leaves open the question as to whether lifelong singleness is becoming more prevalent. The cohort study shows that the upward trend in divorce is not “phasing out” yet, as it did after World War II. An estimated 25 to 29 percent of all women near 30 years old now have ended or will end their first marriage in divorce. About four-fifths of these divorced women have remarried or probably will do so. Of all women around 30 years old now, some five to ten percent may be expected to experience divorce at least twice during their lifetime.     

A survey on the sex ratio at birth in Beijing]

A survey was conducted on the sex ratio at birth in Beijing for the period between 1964 and 1982. In the 1960s, birth control ideas and plans were first introduced. In the 1970s, birth control measures were gradually taken to curb the population growth. In the 1980s, the policy of 1 child for each married couple was adopted and put into practice. Although the birthrate is being maintained at a low level, the number of childbearing age women has increased, and the birthrate has shown some increase. Statistics show almost equality in the sex at birth, but the number of newborn boys is slightly higher than that of newborn girls. Under the influence of Chinese tradition, a great many people in the countryside still prefer to have boys rather than girls, and they might have reported fewer newborn girls than the actual number. The average sex ratio for the past 3 years has still been close to a balance. With the practice of 1 child for each family, the sex ratio has been maintained close to a balance. This overall situation is made possible because of the development in the quality of birth and eugenics and the improvement in health care.