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用于复杂系统建模与仿真的面向智能体技术 总被引:8,自引:0,他引:8
在构造兼具数据处理和知识处理能力的新型面向对象型形式化体系上, 根据复杂系统仿真的需要, 使系统组分“对象”具有自主决策、控制和通信功能, 建成多Agent 系统. 给出多Agent 系统实现群组协作进行战略决策的示例. 相似文献
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知识供应链的智能集成技术与方法研究 总被引:12,自引:0,他引:12
从数据、信息与知识三个层次上研究了供应链的集成技术、理论与方法.首先探讨了供应链集成的层次与过程,然后研究了面向动态集成的组件化松散耦合技术,并重点分析了基于多Agent的供应链智能集成框架与智能化决策方法,最后从知识管理的角度指出了供应链智能集成的研究方向. 相似文献
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本文讨论了财务建模的内涵,分析了财务建模的理论基础,探讨了财务建模的方法以及财务建模的工具。本文认为:财务建模的理论基础包括数学、统计学、经济学、财务管理学、金融学、会计学、计算机程序设计等。财务建模的方法有数学中的逻辑演绎法,统计学中的统计分析法,计算机模拟法等。过去财务建模大多通过微软办公软件Excel来完成,对于统计建模,大家采用较多的有SAS、SPSS等,但本文认为:财务建模的较理想的软件平台是MATLAB,因此建议在财务建模的理论研究和实践中使用MATLAB作为工具。 相似文献
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以贝叶斯准则为基础, 提出了检验变结构线性回归模型显著性的一种方法. 在干扰项方差相等和不相等两种情形下, 推导出其应用的一般公式. 文中以实例说明了此方法的有效性. 相似文献
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在金融时间序列分析中,检验ARCH效果和决定合适的阶是ARCH模型的重要研究主题,在贝叶斯框架下,本文使用贝叶斯因子来检验ARCH效果和选择ARCH模型合适的阶。在路径抽样的基础上,提出了计算ARCH模型贝叶斯因子的方法。最后,我们用一个具体的实例来论证了所提方法的有效性。 相似文献
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Jason Abrevaya Jerry A. Hausman Shakeeb Khan 《Econometrica : journal of the Econometric Society》2010,78(6):2043-2061
A unifying framework to test for causal effects in nonlinear models is proposed. We consider a generalized linear‐index regression model with endogenous regressors and no parametric assumptions on the error disturbances. To test the significance of the effect of an endogenous regressor, we propose a statistic that is a kernel‐weighted version of the rank correlation statistic (tau) of Kendall (1938). The semiparametric model encompasses previous cases considered in the literature (continuous endogenous regressors (Blundell and Powell (2003)) and a single binary endogenous regressor (Vytlacil and Yildiz (2007))), but the testing approach is the first to allow for (i) multiple discrete endogenous regressors, (ii) endogenous regressors that are neither discrete nor continuous (e.g., a censored variable), and (iii) an arbitrary “mix” of endogenous regressors (e.g., one binary regressor and one continuous regressor). 相似文献
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基于MCMC稳态模拟的贝叶斯经验费率厘定信用模型 总被引:2,自引:2,他引:2
B黨lmann-Straub model is one of the most famous applications of the Bayesian method for the experience rate making.However,by the traditional B黨lmann-Straub model one cannot get the unbiased posterior estimation of the parameters when there is not sufficient prior information for the structural parameters;What's more,the difficult of computing high dimension numeration limits the application of Bayesian method.This paper introduces the Markov chain Monte Carlo simulaton method based on the Gibbs sampling after analyzing the structure of the B黨lmann-Straub model and sets up the Bayesian credibility model for estimating the predictive risk premium.Also by using the results of the numeration analysis,this paper proves that from this model one can get the posterior distributions of the parameters dynamically and the posterior estimation of the censoring parameters in the situation that exists unknown parameters,as well as improve the precision of the numeration,which can be helpful to find the heterogeneity of the premium. 相似文献
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Peter C. B. Phillips Hyungsik R. Moon 《Econometrica : journal of the Econometric Society》1999,67(5):1057-1111
This paper develops a regression limit theory for nonstationary panel data with large numbers of cross section (n) and time series (T) observations. The limit theory allows for both sequential limits, wherein T→∞ followed by n→∞, and joint limits where T, n→∞ simultaneously; and the relationship between these multidimensional limits is explored. The panel structures considered allow for no time series cointegration, heterogeneous cointegration, homogeneous cointegration, and near-homogeneous cointegration. The paper explores the existence of long-run average relations between integrated panel vectors when there is no individual time series cointegration and when there is heterogeneous cointegration. These relations are parameterized in terms of the matrix regression coefficient of the long-run average covariance matrix. In the case of homogeneous and near homogeneous cointegrating panels, a panel fully modified regression estimator is developed and studied. The limit theory enables us to test hypotheses about the long run average parameters both within and between subgroups of the full population. 相似文献
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A simple and useful characterization of many predictive models is in terms of model structure and model parameters. Accordingly, uncertainties in model predictions arise from uncertainties in the values assumed by the model parameters (parameter uncertainty) and the uncertainties and errors associated with the structure of the model (model uncertainty). When assessing uncertainty one is interested in identifying, at some level of confidence, the range of possible and then probable values of the unknown of interest. All sources of uncertainty and variability need to be considered. Although parameter uncertainty assessment has been extensively discussed in the literature, model uncertainty is a relatively new topic of discussion by the scientific community, despite being often the major contributor to the overall uncertainty. This article describes a Bayesian methodology for the assessment of model uncertainties, where models are treated as sources of information on the unknown of interest. The general framework is then specialized for the case where models provide point estimates about a single‐valued unknown, and where information about models are available in form of homogeneous and nonhomogeneous performance data (pairs of experimental observations and model predictions). Several example applications for physical models used in fire risk analysis are also provided. 相似文献