A stochastic model of organizational mortality: Review and reanalysis

An effort is made to integrate the research literatures of business policy and organizational sociology as they concern organizational mortality. The previous empirical studies of organizational mortality are reviewed and considered in light of current theoretical arguments. Three stochastic models are developed to test hypotheses concerning organizational mortality: the constant rate model, the Gompertz model, and Makeham's Law. The parameters of these models are estimated for 52 sets of data on organizational mortality. The findings show that Makeham's Law is the best-fitting model, although its estimation requires data with low levels of censoring. Substantively, the findings show strong support for Stinchombe's liability-of-newness hypothesis [A. L. Stinchcombe (1965), “Organizations and social structure,” in Handbook of Organizations (J. G. March, Ed.), pp. 153–193, Rand McNally, Chicago].     

Sex and marriage of raters in the evaluation of occupations

The evaluation of occupational prestige ratings obtained from different subgroups within the same society has been shown to be remarkably similar (Reiss, A. J., Jr., Duncan, O. D., Hah, P. K., and North, C. C., 1961, Occupations and Social Status, Free Press, New York; Svalastoga, K., 1959, Prestige, Class, and Mobility, Gyldendal, Copenhagen; Tiryakian, E. A., 1958, American Journal of Sociology 63 (January), 390–399). Our purpose is to explore how the gender and marital status of raters influence the evaluation of occupational prestige. Using more detailed data than heretofore available, we will reexamine the similarity between occupational prestige evaluations observed among female and male respondents. Models of the way in which characteristics of occupational incumbents, such as income and education, are constructed to explore possible differences in the ways in which male and female raters evaluate occupations. The results of this analysis by gender of rater will then be used to examine both the gender and marital status of raters.     

Psychological ‘self–other overlap’ and support for slavery reparations

Neurobiological and social psychological studies suggest the existence of non-conscious ‘self–other overlap’ that can lead individuals to identify with other individuals or groups. This paper investigates whether this effect may help to explain support by some Whites for an otherwise unpopular policy on behalf of African Americans-slavery reparations. A representative telephone survey (n = 1200) serves as baseline of comparison for an online reaction time study with a non-representative sample (n = 1341) that measures ‘self–other overlap’ (interchangeably referred to as “implicit closeness” to Blacks). Partial proportional odds ordered logit analyses reveal implicit closeness to Blacks as the single most powerful predictor of support for reparations among White respondents. The magnitude of the absolute effect of implicit closeness exceeds that of traditional predictors such as racial resentment, ideology, and party identification. Methodological and political implications are discussed.     

Cognitive Abilities and the Growth of High-IQ Occupations

Is there increasing cognitive partitioning by occupation over time? Herrnstein and Murray's The Bell Curve strongly suggests such a trend. Herrnstein and Murray specify 12 occupations as “high-IQ professions.” They argue that as jobs in these occupations increase over time, more people with high IQs are drawn to these occupations. Thus, there is a growing concentration of the cognitive elite in high-IQ occupations and increasing cognitive partitioning by occupation. However, I find Herrnstein and Murray's analysis problematic due to lack of evidence and misinterpretation of data. Using data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth and the Wisconsin Longitudinal Survey, I rank occupations by incumbents' mean IQ and demonstrate that Herrnstein and Murray overestimate the rankings of some high-IQ occupations, the mean IQ level of persons in high-IQ occupations, and the percentage of high-IQ persons engaged in high-IQ occupations. In addition, using data from the General Social Survey, 1974–1998, I find no evidence that cognitive partitioning by occupation has increased over time.     

Background characteristics in the U.S. adult population 1952–1973: A survey-metric model

Data from 30 surveys (46,356 cases from 10 Michigan Election Surveys and 20 Gallup polls) are analyzed to study the interrelations of cohort, sex, race, region, and education from 1952 to 1973.A d-system model is developed that pools results from the various surveys into a set of parameters forming a flowgraph model. This technique allows one to see whether the surveys used are consistent and whether the results are consistent with outside sources such as census reports. (Generally speaking, the surveys were found to be consistent and the model showed generally good fit with census and NORC General Social Survey estimates, but significant differences in two or three parameters.) A computer model of the system is used to generate implications and extrapolations.Substantively, the main results were: (1) a definite trend away from sex equality in education, especially for college attendance; (2) very little narrowing in race, region, and religious differences in education, until the most recent cohorts where Northern White Catholics and Southern White Protestants show virtual parity with “Yankees” (Northern White Protestant); and (3) a projection that shows discouragingly little narrowing of intergroup education differences in the general population for the next 5 years.     

Intergenerational transmission of sex-specific differential treatments: The allocation of education resources among siblings

Using a unique data set of 3-generation education information, in this article we extend the analysis of Greenhalgh [Greenhalgh, Susan, 1985. Sexual Stratification: The other side of ‘growth with equity’ in East Asia. Population and Development Review 11, 265–314] and study the question of intergenerational transmission of sex-specific differential treatments. The rich data are obtained from Taiwan’s Panel Study of Family Dynamics project. As far as the macro pattern is concerned, we found that although there is a clear tendency of differential treatment against females in the old generation, this tendency is significantly weakened and nearly vanishes in the young generation. Furthermore, the supporting effect of senior siblings in the old generation becomes a crowding (resource-dilution) effect in the young generation. However, within each micro lineage, there is a mild “habitus” effect in the sense that parents who experienced gender-specific differential treatment tend to treat their children in a similar fashion. We find that parents’ education contributes to the elimination of sex-based differential treatment, consistent with the finding in Thronton et al. [Thornton, Arland, Alwin, Duane F. and Camburn, Donald, 1983. Causes and consequences of sex-role attitudes and attitude change. American Sociological Review 48, 211–227].     

Cognitive abilities and self-rated health: Is there a relationship? Is it growing? Does it explain disparities?

Although social epidemiologists have recently turned to the role of cognitive abilities in health, the ensuing debate has been largely speculative and numerous questions remain unanswered. Epidemiologists have speculated in three key areas: (i) whether cognitive abilities are associated with health; (ii) whether the association is growing; and (iii) whether cognitive abilities explain disparities. Using the cumulative 1974–2000 General Social Survey, this paper explores these questions using self-rated health as an outcome and a test of verbal ability as an indicator of cognitive abilities. On the one hand, the results suggest a significant and strictly monotonic association between verbal ability (with scores ranging from 0 to 10) and self-rated health. The association has been consistently strong since 1974; there is no evidence for a growing association. On the other hand, the results provide little to no evidence that verbal ability explains disparities. In multivariate models, the coefficients for income and education are reduced by only a small fraction with the introduction of controls for verbal ability (5 and 16%, respectively) and the relationship between verbal ability and self-rated health is, itself, very sensitive to controls for socioeconomic status. Furthermore, verbal ability cannot account for black–white differences in self-rated health: interaction-effect analyses indicate that, conditional on socioeconomic status, verbal ability has no discernable association with self-rated health among African Americans. Altogether, the results suggest that cognitive abilities are related to self-rated health, but also that cognitive abilities will do very little to explain disparities and may have benefits that are limited mostly—and sometimes entirely—to whites. The results are inconsistent with much of the previous speculation regarding cognitive abilities, but consistent with research on health’s “fundamental” causes and, more generally, with sociological research on the role of cognitive abilities in the process of stratification.     

Bad news indeed for Ryff’s six-factor model of well-being

Springer and Hauser (An Assessment of the Construct Validity of Ryff’s Scales of Psychological Well-Being: Method, Mode, and Measurement Effects. 2006. Social Science Research 35) tested one key aspect of the validity of Ryff’s six-factor model of psychological well-being (RPWB), namely, whether there is substantial independent variation among the six factors. In several large and heterogeneous samples, under a variety of model specifications, and using various sets of RPWB items, we found very high factor correlations among the dimensions of well-being, especially personal growth, purpose in life, self-acceptance, and environmental mastery. That is, the six-factor model makes theoretical claims that do not yield large or consistent empirical distinctions when standard measures and instrumentation are used. Where Ryff and Singer’s comment (Best News Yet on the Six-Factor Model of Well-Being. 2006. Social Science Research 35) refers directly to that analysis, their methodological discussion is most often irrelevant or incorrect. Their text largely ignores and fails to challenge our strong empirical findings about the factorial structure of well-being. In this response, we reinforce these findings and their implications for the (in)validity of the six-factor well-being model as implemented by Ryff. We also explain why Ryff and Singer’s lengthy review of studies that show differential relationships of RPWB factors with other variables should be interpreted with far greater caution than Ryff and Singer recognize. We offer recommendations for analyzing RPWB items in surveys that have already been conducted, but we also emphasize the need for a thorough rethinking of the measurement and dimensionality of psychological well-being.     

Global biodiversity decline of marine and freshwater fish: A cross-national analysis of economic, demographic, and ecological influences

We test competing hypotheses from political–economic and neo-liberal theories about the effects of economic growth and urbanization on a neglected, but important, indicator of environmental health: aquatic biodiversity. We analyze cross-national data on the number of threatened fish species within national territorial waters using negative binomial regression. We find that, counter to the expectations of neo-liberal theories, economic growth increases the likelihood of fish species becoming threatened within nations. Urbanization, however, appears to have no additional effect. The “environmental Kuznets curve” does not hold for aquatic biodiversity, suggesting that further economic growth in nations is likely to escalate the biodiversity crisis.     

Why the trade/GNP ratio decreases with country size

Several rational models are constructed to show why the ratio of a country's foreign trade to its GNP should decrease with increasing country size. A physics-inspired model of absorption of a quasi-continuous particle flow by a quasi-homogeneous space results in detailed agreement with the observed contemporary world-wide pattern of import/GNP vs. population size. On the average, world imports behave as if 63% of a product flow were absorbed by the nearest 730,000 people or by people within 37 miles of the production center, whichever number of people is higher. “Characteristic transport distances” (over which 63% of flow is absorbed) are given for 110 countries and range from 10 to 300 miles. The corresponding “characteristic absorption numbers” range from 160 to 1700 people; they indicate the number of people, linearly arranged, which absorbs 63% of a flow.     

Going most of the way: “Technical virginity” among American adolescents

Reports from academic and media sources assert that many young people substitute non-vaginal sexual activities for vaginal intercourse in order to maintain what could be called “technical virginity.” Explanations for technical virginity, however, are based on weak empirical evidence and considerable speculation. Using a sample of 15–19-year-olds from Cycle 6 of the National Survey of Family Growth, we examine technical virginity and its motivations. The results suggest that religious adolescents are less likely than less-religious ones to opt for non-vaginal sex over total abstinence. Abstinence pledgers who are virgins are neither more nor less likely than nonpledgers who are virgins to substitute non-vaginal sex for intercourse. Moreover, religion and morality are actually the weakest motivators of sexual substitution among adolescents who have not had vaginal sex. Preserving technical virginity is instead more common among virgins who are driven by a desire to avoid potential life-altering consequences, like pregnancy and sexually transmitted diseases.     

Latent structures of vertical control in intergovernmental relations

Much of the work on interorganizational (IO) relations focuses on intracommunity bases of resource exchange, or what a number of writers have referred to as the “horizontal axes” of community organization and resource control. Building on earlier work in the field, the present paper extends this conceptual framework to include “vertical” dimensions of resource control as they pertain to the work relations of governmental units at the local and extralocal level. In this context, vertical control is viewed as a power-dependence relation between county-based public service agencies and their “parent” units at the state and federal level. Variations in these control relations are used to identify alaternate structures of vertical control within a set of public service programs spanning several units of government. The analysis reveals three basic types of vertical control structure each of which is shown to foster a distinct pattern of exchange relations among these units.     

Racial similarity in the relationship between poverty and homicide rates: Comparing retransformed coefficients

Criminologists have shown great interest in comparing the strength of the relationship between poverty and violent crime for whites and blacks. The present paper argues that the standard approach of comparing race-specific coefficients from logarithmic metric OLS and/or Poisson-based regressions has led to erroneous conclusions in this literature. Unlike researchers in other disciplines (especially economics), criminologists have largely ignored the need to “retransform” coefficients to their linear-effect representations before making comparisons between groups. The current study illustrates the importance of this methodological issue for the substantive question of whether poverty’s relationship to homicide is racially invariant (N = 134 cities). Similar to previous studies, initial results indicated that poverty’s effect on the natural logarithm of the homicide rate was dramatically stronger for whites than blacks (nearly 300% stronger for whites). However, after applying a broadly useful retransformation formula, poverty’s effect on the homicide rate actually appeared somewhat stronger for blacks. Further application of bootstrap simulations necessary to calculate the standard error of the difference in coefficients suggested that this racial discrepancy was not statistically significant.     

Using item response theory to optimize measurement of chronic stress in pregnancy

ObjectiveUtilize Rasch analysis to develop an optimized self-reported measure of stress in pregnancy and examine the association with patient demographics and biologic measures of stress.Study designMeasured self-reported stress in pregnant women using 12 existing scales. Collected blood for biologic measures of stress (Epstein Barr Virus [EBV], C-Reactive Protein [CRP], Corticotropin Reactive Hormone [pCRH], and Adenocorticotropin Hormone [ACTH]). Used multidimensional scaling and Rasch analysis to produce an item reduced self-report measure.ResultsEnrolled 112 women. Survey items reduced to two factors: perceived stressors and buffers of stress. Women with a domestic partner had lower perceived stress (p = 0.003). Caucasian women reported higher buffers of stress (p = 0.045), as did women with private insurance (p < 0.001), a planned pregnancy (p < 0.01), and a domestic partner (p < 0.001). Women with higher buffers of stress had lower levels of pCRH (adjusted p = 0.01).ConclusionItem reduced, optimized measures of stress were associated with significant differences in patient demographics and biologic measures of stress.     

Status claims, performance expectations, and inequality in groups

We state and test two new theoretical assumptions regarding effects of explicit status claims upon others' performance expectations and the consequent group hierarchy: (1) that any such claim is aggregated with other status information, and (2) that the weight of the effect of a claim is a direct function of the status position of the person expressing it. Added to the core assumptions of theories of status generalization, the new assumptions account for phenomena also called “second-order expectations” and “status cues.” Results from a six-condition experimental test support the ideas, and permit comparing our assumptions with two variant mechanisms. We consider some uses of the extended theory, including interventions to control status effects within groups and legitimating and de-legitimating group hierarchies.     

A global risk assessment model for civil wars

In this study, we construct a multivariate model that assesses the risk of an outbreak of civil war in a country over a period of 5 years into the future. In addition to structural factors of state weakness, which have dominated the literature on civil war onset, this model includes repression of basic human rights to personal integrity – an important harbinger of wars to come – as an aspect of state behavior. Our aim is not to explore the causal factors of civil war onset, but to build a model that includes indicators that correlate with civil war outbreak and may be used to predict it. Based on two versions of the model – logit and neural network – out-of-sample risk assessments for three different time periods are generated and compared to the historical record of civil war outbreak during those years. In addition, the model’s ability to produce in-sample risk assessments over a 5-year period is tested. Finally, we compute truly predictive civil war risk assessments for all countries for which data are available, for the years 2008–2012. The analyses show that with a relatively simple model and based on publicly available data sources, meaningful civil war risk assessments can be computed. The quality of the predictions exceeds that of prominent studies, in which the risk of interstate war is assessed.     

Welfare myths: The transmission of values and work among TANF families

Both “welfare culture” arguments and structural explanations of poverty suggest that attitudes may have an effect on work and welfare outcomes. However, most scholars only examine objective behaviors and characteristics despite the fact that values are an underlying mechanism in explanations of the transmission of welfare and work behavior. Using data from a survey of recent welfare recipients in Louisiana and structural equation methods, we analyze causal relationships among family background, socioeconomic characteristics, attitudes, and two outcomes—TANF participation and employment. We find some support for the intergenerational transmission of welfare but not through values; we find no evidence that under the TANF system, values inhibit work.     

Career mobility and job flocking

Flocking is oftentimes used to metaphorically describe social behavior. Do people actually flock in a way that avian species do? This paper develops a purely ecological mechanism for explaining similarity in human behavior by distinguishing between social networks of person-to-person ties and ecological networks of ties of observability. I test the “information center hypothesis” [Ibis 115 (1973) 517] from bioecology on the career mobility of professional managers who all graduated from the same university. In this case, spatial proximity in birds is replaced with sociodemographic homophily on an acquired status characteristic among persons. The results indicate that homophilous individuals exchange information about a favorable destination state by ecological ties of observability, that is, they follow the career mobility of fellow alumni and “flock” along with them.     

The role of self-evaluations in legitimizing social inequality

This research addresses a long standing puzzle in the social sciences: why are stratified social systems accepted as legitimate (the way things “ought” to be) by those who are advantaged and those who are disadvantaged by them? We build on previous studies of self-evaluations to explain the legitimation of inequality. The research consists of two experiments designed to test the self-evaluation theory of legitimacy. The theory proposes that structural inequality becomes legitimated when individuals’ self-evaluations and the level of resources they receive are congruent. Study 1 examines the impact of structural power on self-evaluations. Results show that participants randomly assigned to advantaged positions in power structures earn more rewards and, as a result, develop higher self-evaluations than those randomly assigned to disadvantaged positions. Study 2 addresses the relationship between self-evaluations and legitimated structural inequality by testing competing hypotheses of legitimacy. The results partially support the self-evaluation theory and partially support competing arguments about legitimacy. We conclude with a discussion of the implications of our work and suggestions for future research.     

Trends in the relative occupational status of African Americans and European immigrants in Northern cities, 1880–1970

In his classic book, A Piece of the Pie, Stanley Lieberson described divergent trends in occupational standing for African Americans and European immigrants after 1920, as the Great Migration from the South swelled the size of the black population in northern cities. In this paper I build upon Lieberson’s work using longitudinal data drawn from the Integrated Public Use Microdata Series for the census years 1880–1970. This more versatile data source allows me to examine separate occupational trends for northern-born blacks and southern-born migrants and to control for relevant socio-demographic characteristics. The findings confirm Lieberson’s general conclusion that blacks lost ground, occupationally, to immigrants after 1920. However, they show further that: (1) northern- and southern-born blacks experienced different trends in relative occupational standing after 1920, (2) that these different trends were due largely to compositional differences between the two groups of northern blacks, especially educational differences, and (3) that blacks were generally less successful than immigrants at translating additional educational attainment into improved occupational status, with southern migrants experiencing the weakest occupational returns to education. It is concluded that compositional differences and a racially-defined occupational queue were the most important factors shaping group differences and trends in occupational standing between 1920 and 1970. Timing of arrival in the northern industrial economy and a response by whites to the “racial threat” from a growing black population were less important.