The weakness of strong ties: Sampling bias,social ties,and nepotism in family business succession

Decision-making is a complex cognitive activity filled with bias. Leader decision-making is unique because it occurs in a social context. We examine how biases resulting from social network dynamics complicate leaders' decision-making. In particular, we focus on a specific case of leader cognition: nepotism in the succession decisions in the context of family businesses. Succession often leads to a decline in performance because leaders frequently choose family members as their successor, a form of nepotism. We show that even when a leader can overcome individual decision biases, a bias in sampling resulting from families' strong ties can still allow a leader to wrongly conclude that family members are better qualified than external candidates when the opposite is true. We demonstrate this phenomenon using simulation modeling and explore solutions to family business succession planning.     

Organizational Computing as a Facilitator of Operational and Managerial Decision Making: An Exploratory Study of Managers' Perceptions*

Much of the current knowledge pertaining to information technology (IT) and decision making is based on decades old technologies that revolved around a central computing function and application-specific systems. The purpose of this research is to examine the IT decision-making relationship within the emerging organizational computing (OC) environment permeated by spontaneous utilization of both application-and nonapplication-specific computing and communication technologies. Specifically, this study seeks to explore managers' perceptions of the emerging OC environment as a facilitator of their decision-making activities. To achieve a higher level of clarity than previous works, a two-dimensional research framework is developed with the IT dimension consisting of computing and communication, and the decision-making dimension differentiated between operational and managerial decisions. A survey instrument was constructed that measured the computing and communication dimensions of information technology use and their perceived effects upon operational and managerial decisions. The major findings of the study confirmed that managers recognize the value of general, nonapplication-specific information technologies in decision making, and that this recognition is highly associated with how intensively these information technologies are used. Additionally, it was found that the two dimensions of IT differ in their relationships to decision making, and that IT usage relates to managerial decisions differently than operational decisions. These study findings have significant implication for practice and research, especially in the context of information resource management in which the primary purpose of the IS function is the delivery of general information service to users rather than the development of specific IS applications.     

基于遗传算法的装备采购决策优化研究

在装备采购中，由于需求单位地域分布和担负的任务各不相同，对装备的品种、数量、时限要求也就不一样，如何使装备采购科学化、合理化，是一个涉及多变量、多目标的复杂系统问题。在综合考虑装备采购各项因素的基础上，构建多约束条件下的多目标模糊指派模型，提出了基于遗传算法的解决方案，最后通过案例进行仿真实验，验证该算法的可行性和有效性，解决了采用传统优化方法难以解决的装备采购优化决策问题。     

Structuring Conflict in Individual,Face-to-Face,and Computer-Mediated Group Decision Making: Carping Versus Objective Devil's Advocacy*

Researchers and practitioners have long been interested in the effects of cognitive conflict techniques on individual and group decision making. One widely used and studied technique, devil's advocacy (DA), has been found to enhance decision-making performance for both individuals and groups. Devil's advocacy begins with a recommended decision, followed by a critique of the decision that questions its assumptions. Researchers have not yet examined the effects of the objectivity of the devil's advocacy comments in computer-mediated environments. This paper reports the results of a laboratory experiment that focused on this question by comparing the effects of an objective, nonemotional DA to an emotional, “carping” DA within individuals and groups using either computer-mediated or face-to-face communication. In a manner consistent with prior research, both DA treatments were operationalized through the use of paper-based consulting reports. The results suggest that individuals and computer-mediated groups develop and consider more solution alternatives than face-to-face groups, and that subjects given the objective DA treatment produce higher quality decisions than those given the carping DA treatment. Face-to-face groups in the carping DA treatment considered the fewest alternative solutions in their decision-making process, reached the lowest solution quality, yet reached decision consensus in the fewest voting rounds. The practical implications of the results suggest that questioning statements made by a devil's advocate should be objective, regardless of group communication condition. Carping devil's advocacy appears to stifle group decision outcomes when groups are using face-to-face communication.     

Fast and rigorous: Configurational determinants of strategic decision-making balance

A longstanding debate in the strategic decision-making literature has focused on whether top management teams (TMTs) can effectively balance speed and comprehensiveness when making important decisions. In our research, we build on early insights and pivot from considering whether TMTs can engage indecision-making that balances these tensions to focus instead on when certain types of TMTs are able to achieve such balance. We employ a novel configurational analytical approach and a theoretical framework built from role theory to examine the CEO-TMT interface in a new way. In so doing, we are able to identify specific CEO-TMT constellations that support decision-making that is both fast and rigorous. Using a unique primary dataset and an abductive, configurational approach grounded in fuzzy set qualitative comparative analysis (fsQCA), we identify six specific leader-team configurations that each facilitate decision processes characterized by rigorous intra-team debate, meaningful reconciliation of divergent ideas, and fast decision speed (which we describe as strategic decision-making balance). The range of CEO-TMT configurations that emerge from our analyses contribute new theory and findings for the strategic decision-making and interface literatures more broadly, as well as the specific research streams on executive gender, humility, and TMT structure.     

Situational impacts on leader ethical decision-making

Leader ethical decision-making has received a great deal of attention in the academic literature. Most research examining ethical leadership has focused on the leader characteristics and subordinate outcomes associated with ethical leadership, but research examining the situational variables influencing leader ethical decision-making is limited. Thus, the purpose of this study was to examine a number of situational variables that may influence leader ethical decision-making. This study examined the impacts of performance pressure, interpersonal conflict, the leader's decision-making autonomy, the type of ethical issue at hand, and the level of authority of the other person involved in the interaction. The results indicated that when making a decision in response to a superior (as opposed to a peer or subordinate), leaders make worse decisions. Additionally, a number of interactions of the other variables negatively impacted leaders' ethical decision-making. The implications of these findings are discussed.     

The effects of authentic leadership on followers' ethical decision-making in the face of temptation: An experimental study

The present research investigates the impact of authentic leadership on followers' morality, operationalized as ethical decision-making, in the face of temptation. This experiment finds that authentic leadership and temptation interacted to affect individuals' ethical decision-making. Specifically, authentic leadership significantly inhibited individuals' from making unethical decisions in the face of temptation, whereas followers of neutral or less authentic leaders were more likely to succumb to temptation. Authentic leadership did not have a significant impact on ethical decision-making when temptation was absent. Further, results showed a significant moderated-mediated effect whereby the interactive effect of authentic leadership and temptation on individuals' guilt appraisal was mediated through the nature of the ethical decision. Theoretical and practical implications of these findings are discussed.     

Leader errors and the influence on performance: An investigation of differing levels of impact

Errors will inevitably occur when one is involved in decision making tasks with complex, ill-defined problems. Qualitative research on this topic has illuminated the complex nature of problems faced by many leaders and organizations as they make decisions. Although this research has answered many questions about the nature of errors, empirical research on errors among leaders remains scarce. To further explore this topic, 170 undergraduates were assigned to one of five work conditions and asked to read three cases with initiating structure problems and three cases with consideration problems while taking on the role of the CEO in the scenario. Errors committed by leaders were examined to answer questions about how work conditions influence errors committed. Additionally, how these errors influence performance outcomes was also examined. Results indicated that work conditions paired with errors made by leaders influenced levels of performance. Under certain conditions, most notably process overload, errors led to negative performance. We also discuss the implications of these findings for understanding the influence of work conditions on errors committed and their combined influence on performance outcomes.     

Concepts,Theory, and Techniques DISTRIBUTED COMPUTER SYSTEM DESIGN: A MULTICRITERIA DECISION-MAKING METHODOLOGY*

The design of distributed computer systems (DCSs) requires compromise among several conflicting objectives. For instance, high system availability conflicts with low cost which in turn conflicts with quick response time. This paper presents an approach, based on multi-criteria decision-making techniques, to arrive at a good design in this multiobjective environment. An interactive procedure is developed to support the decision making of system designers. Starting from an initial solution, the procedure presents a sequence of non-dominated vectors to designers, allowing them to explore systematically alternative possibilities on the path to a final design. The model user has control over trade-offs among different design objectives. This paper focuses on the details of the mathematical model used to provide decision support. Accordingly, a formulation of DCS design as a multicriteria decision problem is developed. The exchange search heuristic used to generate nondominated solutions also is presented. We argue that multicriteria models provide a more realistic formulation of the DCS design problem than the single-criterion models used widely in the literature. While obtaining a clear definition of design objectives (single or multiple) is an important activity, by explicitly acknowledging the trade-offs among multiple objectives in the design process, our methodology is more likely to produce a better overall design than methods addressing a single criterion in isolation.     

Can business learn from wargames?

The value of planning, particularly strategic planning, has long been recognized by both the military and business. Recently, the military has made significant contributions in the area of strategic decision making through the use of war games. Business managers may be able to expand their strategic decision-making judgment by employing the wargaming technology developed by the military. If the wargaming concept is embraced by business, it must serve, as it does in the military, as an aid to decision-making rather than as the decision itself.     

“I feel and think,therefore I am”: An Affect-Cognitive Theory of management decisions

I propose an Affect-Cognitive Theory to comprehensively understand how decisions occur in organizations. To this aim, I first review the assumptions of sensemaking and decision-making streams of research, especially the influence of bounded rationality, affective states and their relationships with cognition; then, I integrate them on the common basis of socially situated cognition. This new theory emphasizes the role of affective states in determining/being determined by cognition and its errors, pointing out decision makers’ affect as the result of multi-level adaptations to the physical and social environment. Management decisions are path dependent but not immutable; they, indeed, bank on the predominant feeling resulting from the modifying interactions and regulations of decision makers with their physical and social environment. Here, decision makers are proposed as “emotional cognizers” overcoming the thinking-feeling dichotomy that has often featured in the study of management decisions. This theory is beneficial for behavioral strategy, offering the needed assumptions to intertwine human cognition, emotions, and social behavior.     

Using our brains to develop better policy

Current governmental practices often use a method called weight of evidence (WoE) to integrate and weigh different sources of information in the process of reaching a decision. Recent advances in cognitive neuroscience have identified WoE-like processes in the brain, and we believe that these advances have the potential to improve current decision-making practices. In this article, we describe five specific areas where knowledge emerging from cognitive neuroscience may be applied to the challenges confronting decisionmakers who manage risks: (1) quantifying evidence, (2) comparing the value of different sources of evidence, (3) reaching a decision, (4) illuminating the role of subjectivity, and (5) adapting to new information. We believe that the brain is an appropriate model for structuring decision-making processes because the brain's network is designed for complex, flexible decision making, and because policy decisions that must ultimately depend on human judgment will be best served by methods that complement human abilities. Future discoveries in cognitive neuroscience will likely bring further applications to decision practice.     

Small Group Studies of Regulatory Decision-Making for Power-Frequency Electric and Magnetic Fields

Three groups of lay opinion leaders were used in a group role-playing decision exercise designed to explore problems in public risk management decision-making. The application domain was possible risks from the 60 Hz electric and magnetic fields associated with high-voltage power transmission lines. While there were differences in the make-up and dynamics of the three groups, the structure and substantive content of the tasks undertaken dominated intergroup variation in terms of the factors that were most important to group members' decisions. The groups displayed sophistication in their identification of decision attributes and in many of the arguments they advanced, but experienced difficulties in structuring and making trade-offs and decisions. The groups were not good at normalizing or otherwise manipulating quantitative information, and used it largely in the form it was received. Upper-bound risk estimates were treated operationally in most group discussions as expected values. Several kinds of strong framing effects were observed in the use of cost and risk information. Specific quantitative results obtained must be treated with care but may provide a starting place for further work on the acceptable level of transmission line risk.     

Using Risk Communication to Disclose the Outcome of a Participatory Decision-Making Process: Effects on the Perceived Acceptability of Risk-Policy Decisions

It has been suggested that public participation during decision making about risks can lead to more widely accepted risk policies. This article discusses an experiment to determine if this is true when people are made aware of the fact that a participatory decision-making process has taken place only through information disclosed during a subsequent risk communication effort. The results from this experiment showed that, after receiving information during risk communication that cast risk policies about space exploration as the product of a participatory decision process, participants in the study felt more supportive of the resulting decisions than did participants in a control group. This result coincided with the participants in the study group perceiving the risks associated with the decision to be lower and the benefits higher. Responses from these participants also showed that they were more satisfied with the decision-making process than they were with the outcome of the decision itself Therefore, it may be premature to view the objective of participatory decision-making approaches-and the risk communication efforts that discuss them-as a means of making risk policies more widely acceptable to the public at large. Rather, it may be better to view the benefits of these approaches in terms of their ability to help lead to higher quality decisions that are the product of more widely accepted decision processes.     

Leader decision speed as a signal of honesty

Decision speed is emerging as an important topic to organizations, yet its consequences for leaders have received little research attention. The present research builds on this notion by examining how the speed with which leaders come to decisions shapes observers' perceptions and behaviors. In three incentivized experiments, participants evaluated leaders who decided whether to include or exclude followers from participating in consequential decisions. Leaders were seen as more honest when they were fast (vs. slow) to include followers, but as less honest when they were fast (vs. slow) to exclude followers from decisions. These perceptions influenced several key outcomes: the willingness to reward leaders (Experiment 1) and the willingness to cooperate with leaders (Experiment 3). Consistent with a signaling perspective, these effects disappeared when observers learned that leaders were externally pressed to decide quickly or slowly (Experiment 2). The present research offers new insights into the cues that people use when judging leaders' decision-making processes, and the behavioral consequences of these judgments.     

需求扰动下闭环供应链的收益费用共享契约研究

本文研究了由一个制造商和一个零售商组成的零售商负责回收闭环供应链。指出通过收益费用共享契约可协调解决分散式决策闭环供应链中存在的“双边际效应”问题,提高其运营效益。当突发事件引起市场需求中的最大市场需求规模发生扰动时,通过对集中式决策闭环供应链的最优决策与稳定环境下起协调作用的收益费用共享契约协调零售商所得到的最优决策进行比较分析,结果表明：稳定环境下的收益费用共享契约将不能协调突发事件干扰下的分散式决策闭环供应链。基于收益费用共享契约的协调机理对其参数进行改进可再次协调突发事件干扰下的分散式决策闭环供应链,并且该契约也能够协调稳定环境下的分散式决策闭环供应链。最后,通过算例验证了本文的主要结论并说明了收益费用共享契约的价值。     

Managing key interfaces in production planning and control

Detailed observational research, undertaken in two large and complex manufacturing businesses, identified ways in which work groups interface to employ knowledge to perform production planning and control activities. Eleven interfaces were observed and methods were established to classify them into types based on how knowledge is communicated and shared. Characteristics of the decision-making environment on either side of each interface were identified to explore their impact on interface type. Key differences in decision-makers’ predominant modes of decision-making, their agendas, and the form and scope of their knowledge were found to influence communication and decision-making processes. These findings have implications for production planning and control organisation and process design. In particular, it is seen that the effectiveness of interfaces may be improved through the alignment of decision-making approaches, agendas and knowledge across interfaces and/or through the effective use of interface tools that enable decision-makers to understand the consequences of decisions made.     

Decision process in one-of-a-kind production

One-of-a-kind production is project business. In any project, the decision process is of importance for a successful outcome. However, there is a need for a more formal approach to decision-making in projects. We have therefore, developed a model of the decision process. It uses three types of decisions: selection, authorisation and plan decisions. Enterprise models together with the project life cycle form a platform for developing a decision model. The life cycle enables a decision chain, whereas the enterprise models allow decisions at different levels. The horizontal decision chain is linked to physical flow of documents and materials. Vertically, decision-making is hierarchically decomposed into levels of different planning horizons and time periods.