Publicity for family planning must be based on serving the masses]

Prior to 1984, local campaigns for promoting family planning were often perfunctory and ineffective, regardless of the money and resources invested. In 1984, the Chinese Central Committee called on county level Party cadres to adopt more realistic and less dogmatic approaches toward promoting family planning. Emphasis was shifted from "controlling the people" to "serving the people." A series of 7 mandatory classes for all party and government officials stressed the effectiveness of working with the public, relying on persuasion instead of resorting to force, and gaining the public's trust. A specific example in which the family planning program in Dutou county, Hunan province, achieved 100% compliance, following the launching of a new campaign in 1984, is cited.     

The evaluation of China's population policy]

China's population policy has had tremendous effects on the reduction of fertility. The impact of the population policy is manifested in the following aspects. 1) Reducing the size of the total population by 200 million in 17 years. If the population growth rate had remained at its 1970 level of 2.6/1000, the total population would have been 1.28 billion in 1987. 2) The implementation of the population policy accelerated the process of demographic transition. The mortality decline which began in the early 1950s initiated the demographic transition. The Fertility decline began after the birth control policy was implemented and shifted the transition to a low population growth stage even before the socioeconomic conditions which are considered to be the determinants of fertility decline appeared. The fertility decline, in turn, promoted the socioeconomic development of the country. 3) Solving the problem of food; feeding 21.6% of the world's population on 7.1% of the world's farm land is no easy task. The success of population control, no doubt, played an important role in lowering the population growth rate so that the growth of food production could keep pace with the needs of the population. 4) A decline in the dependency ratio is a favorable condition to socioeconomic development. China's dependency ratio of 59.7 is among the lowest in developing countries and is close to the level in developed countries. Therefore, more production output can be used in investment rather than consumption. 5) The fertility decline facilitated a balanced economic growth. The ratio of population growth as compared to the growth of major economic indicators should be considered an important issue in maintaining macroeconomic control. The population policy made it possible for economic growth to surpass population growth.     

The research of population science must initiate a new situation]

The basis for initiating a new situation in population research lies in Hu Yaobang's address at the 12th National Congress when he said that the population problem is of extreme importance and that birth control is a basic national policy. The rapid population growth, he continued, influences income, food, clothing, shelter, education and work, and it might even influence the stability of a society. Thus, birth control work, particularly in the countryside, must never be lax. But if the work is done well, then population control can be successful. There already exists a good basis for population research. Since the 1970s, demography developed rapidly, whether it was in population theory, population control, disseminating information, training cadres for census work, projecting population, or in developing professional relationships on an international level. The Population Association of China, established in 1981, was followed by population associations in the provinces, cities, and autonomous regions. In the last 2 years, the Population Association of China convened 5 specialized meetings. Currently China has a Population Research Center and 217 offices, plus demographic studies at the People's University and Fudan University. In initiating a new situation in demography, one should study new situations, sum up new experiences, and solve new problems. The national policy is to control population numbers and raise population quality. This can be done by educating peasants that female babies are worthwhile, protecting mothers who bear female babies, and encouraging eugenics.     

Characteristics of age composition of China's population]

The age composition of Chinese population is analyzed via data collected in the 1982 census, which has been the basis for planning the social and economic life of 1 billion people. The census reflected complete population age composition, by birth, mortality and growth rates, from the time of the Liberation in 1949. The 10% sample, based on the national age composition, did not include the 4,240,000 people in military service which, as .42% of the total population, did not constitute a large differential. The population has grown rapidly since 1949. A few years before and after 1960, growth was reduced due to economic conditions, but the overall growth trend remained unchanged. The census showed that since 1970, growth has experienced a downturn, but the decrease was not related to the sudden drop before and after 1960. The census also showed China's population had changed from 1964's primarily young population to an adult population, but the process of population aging is only beginning, with a still relatively young population. China's population is not a stable one. This increase and decrease were greatly influenced by the changes in social and economic conditions. The disparity in age composition caused by these changes has created problems in social life, education, employment, marriage, housing, health, transportation, and cultural facilities. There are large differences in age composition between regions and ethnic groups. The decreases in birth and growth rate of the eastern coastal provinces were more rapid than those of the southwest and northwest regions. The age composition of minority nationalities is considerably younger than the Han people. Factors that influenced age composition characteristics included reduction of the neonatal mortality rate, the rises and falls of economic development, and the work in planned fertility.     

Theory and methods in China's population policy]

Before 1949, China's population development was noted for its high birth rate, high death rate, and low natural growth rate. After 1949, the death rate showed a large-scale decline, the birth rate was maintained at a high level, and natural growth rate also remained high. Between 1949 and 1973, the natural growth rate was kept above a 2% annual rate. Since then, the need for population control has become increasingly obvious. The theory and methods of China's population policy can be summarized in the following points: (1) material production has to keep up with the pace of population growth, and that means the quantity and quality of the population have to match athe production of materials needed for life and consumption; (2) in a Socialist society, material production and population growth have to develop with well-designed plans; (3) the population question has a direct impact on social and economic development; (4) through enforcement of a national policy, cooperation from different individuals, and ideological education, family planning will gradually be accepted by the general public for the well-being of the country.     

We must complete the population control system to control the population peak and achieve our population goal]

Since 1986, China has experienced another baby boom which is expected to last till 1997. If no effective measure is implemented to check population growth, the population target of around 1.2 billion will not be achieved. The author proposed four population regulation mechanisms that need to be strengthened. First, ideological education needs to be used to change people's perceptions about family size, so that couples would willingly accept small families. Second, financial incentives and penalties need to be used to direct people to regulate their fertility. The incentive and penalty technique directly affect the interests of the family and is likely to produce rapid results. Third, legislation can be used to regulate reproductive behavior, the laws and legislation which restrict social behavior should be utilized for population control purposes. Once legislation on fertility regulation is passed, those who violate the law can be penalized. Furthermore, legislation gives family planning (FP) workers legitimacy in implementing the program and can help avoid disputes in the process of FP program implementation. Fourth, provision of contraception and abortion services is an important mechanism to ensure the realization of the objectives of population growth control. Meanwhile, the effectiveness of contraceptive methods and the acceptance of abortion depends on the research and development of contraceptive technology and on abortion techniques. These fertility regulatory mechanisms have not be adequately established, and their functions have not been fully utilized. The current FP program is hampered by simplistic ideological education, abusive use of incentives and penalties, lack of legislation, and unmet needs in contraceptive development. To achieve the population targets, these mechanisms need to be strengthened.     

Study thoroughly the Marxist theory on population, develop population science in China]

The Third National Population Science Congress emphasized the production theory of Marxism, the basic difference between China's population control and the old and new Malthusianism, and possible social problems caused by the one child per couple policy. The meeting was well-organized, and the participants were actively involved; it included a keynote speech, group discussions, and seminars by specialists. Most people agreed that population production should be included in the social economy and that both material and population production should together decide the development of the society. Some people believed that Malthus' population theory is antirevolutionary and totally unacceptable. Others thought that there are some positive aspects such as the coordination of population with consumer goods and his population control measures. Many valuable suggestions were made in the meeting concerning population control. This Congress also established a Chinese Population Society, passed the bylaws, and elected members of the board of directors for the Society. Vice-Premier Chen gave an important closing speech about the importance of family planning and population control.     

The historical development of China's population and its characteristics]

Population developments in China from 2100 B.C. up to 1949 are described. Fluctuations due to alternating periods of prosperity and decline are noted. In particular, the author discusses the rapid population increase that occurred from the mid-1700s to the modern era as a result of changes in taxation, the development of cultivated land, and stable economic and social conditions. Estimates are provided for all the dynasties and for selected reigns.     

Population quality must be improved to carry out the strategic goal of economic construction]

The poor population quality (quality of life of the population as a whole) of Zhejiang Province in southeast China and the imperative need for its improvement are the subject of this report. Its 40 million inhabitants have a life expectancy of 69 years. For every 1000 people there is only 1 doctor and 1.7 hospital beds. These figures are lower for all the other southeastern provinces. According to the 1982 census, there are 47 college graduates, 517 high school graduates, and 1779 middle school graduates for every 10,000 people. The quality of life of the population can be improved through increased productivity because there is a direct relationship between the 2. Although China already enjoys a high level of productivity, it is up to the government to concentrate its efforts on the quality of productivity through reform. China's political structure, its rules, regulations and conventions have contributed to making the economy backward. A substantial change within the social system is imperative to put China's economy on a more progressive footing. Moreover, efforts in family planning must continue. The current population growth rate is not commensurate with the economic growth rate. As population control and population quality are interrelated, a smaller population would mean a higher standard of living. The report concludes that in order to fulfill the strategic goal of economic construction quality is a task that cannot be postponed, since it concerns Zhejiang Province's economic projections, as well as the quality of the new labor force that will be in place by then.     

Analysis of the process and characteristics of China's population aging]

The author projects three stages of population aging in China to the year 2040, based on 1982 census data. It is estimated that by the third stage (2025-2040), 25 percent of the population will be aged 65 and over. Two characteristics of China's population aging are emphasized: the speed of the process relative to other countries and the proportion of aged relative to developed countries.     

Characteristics of the statute of China's population census in 1982]

China's 1982 census is described. The purpose was to contribute to the modernization of socialism. It was based on current conditions in China and conducted under government supervision using the international experience of the US, Canada, the Philippines, and Japan and with UN assistance for census sampling methods and computer data processing techniques. The census was taken with a strong emphasis on procedural quality control. Its target was Chinese citizens living in China and its territories; each individual was to be registered in his own domicile. The 1982 census listed 19 category items, over twice as many as the 1953 and 1964 censuses. Added to the basic information items of name, relationship to head of household, sex, age, ethnic origin, and education, were new items including employment, marital status, total number of births, number of children still living, and number of births, deaths and age at death in the previous year. The new categories instituted progressive approaches such as recording children of unwed mothers; and in education, recognizing experience level of older workers having little formal education but considerable practical expertise, including temporary employees in employment categories. Major difficulties were encountered in the data collection process: wide differences in education level among residents of the various geographical locations; registration of permanent residents using the household registration; registration of the transient population and people living on boats; determining employment classifications; and rendering the data suitable for data processing. However, the census was performed scientifically; census-takers interviewed each family and individual, and data was meticulously collected, calculated, and processed twice.     

A preliminary analysis of the present situation of China's population]

The national census conducted in 1982 provides the most up-to-date statistics on China's population. The following are some characteristics of China's population at the present time, based upon preliminary analysis: (1) The total population figure has passed the one billion mark, but the growth rate has been declining since the 1970s; (2) The population density is higher than other countries of the world, but the distribution is uneven. The percentage of the city population is low, and changes in urban and rural distribution are slow; (3) The population growth of ethnic minorities is higher than average, and the ratio of the minority population is increasing; (4) There are slightly more men than women-an impact of traditional society; (5) The age structure of the population is still young, but sharp change is in the process of developing; (6) Fertility has declined on a large scale, but is still far from reaching the goal of population control; (7) The death rate has remained at a low level for a long period of time, and average lifespan is gradually becoming prolonged; (8) The marital status has remained stable, and people normally marry between the ages of 20 and 30; (9) The cultural and educational level of the general public has been promoted, but still not enough for modernized construction; (10) The employment rate is high, and most of the working population is employed with the departments of material production. The percentage of employment of a service nature is small. A high percentage of the working population is related to agriculture, fishing, and animal husbandry. The precentage of workers in manual labor is much higher than that for mental labor.     

The center of gravity of China's population and its moving locus]

The concept of and methods of estimating the center of gravity of the population of China are described. Changes in its locus over the period 1912 to 1978 are examined. It is noted that the center of population has moved back and forth between East and West over this period, although the main center has remained in the East and South of the country.     

A brief discussion on the effect of religion and feudal superstitions on China's population growth]

According to Marxism, population development is subject to the determination of production means under certain social and historical conditions, but it is also influenced by ideology, religions, and other factors. China is a country with numerous religions and traditional superstitions. Their impact on China's population growth cannot be underestimated. All religions and feudal superstitions have a role in the increase of the population, and they oppose birth control and abortion. Similarly, traditional feudal concepts of having more children for good fortune, ancestral worship, and filial piety also encouraged early marriage and having more children, and they have contributed to population growth. On the contrary, "individualism" practiced by Buddhist monks and nuns, the "sacred war" believed by Islamic people, and the offering of human sacrifices by many primitive religions, and the murdering of baby twins have served to reduce the population. Most of the religions and feudal superstitions are in favor of increasing the population. The popularity of Buddhism in the past was caused by an oversupply of the labor force. Many farmers became Buddhist monks as a way to earn a living. Since liberation, unhealthy religions and feudal superstitions have been prohibited but their everlasting infulence upon the people cannot be ignored. Uncontrolled population growth is harmful to the nation's economy and improvement of people's livelihood. In family planning work, attention should also be given to the prevention of interference from religions and feudal superstitions in people's ideology.     

The evolution in China's fertility and an analysis of population development]

There have been numerous projections on China's population at the end of century. Their differences are due to different estimations on the effects of fertility determinants. 2 simulation models have been developed, both from micro and macro levels, to estimate the population at the end of the century on the basis of 6 different fertility patterns. 3 possible options for fertility patterns are discussed. 1.) The 1 child per family option means that every couple has 1 child by the year 1989, the population of China will be 1.2 billion in the year 2000. Even if this is a ideal situation, it would not be a feasible policy, as the pressure from the rural population to have more than 1 child has been increasing in recent years. Nevertheless, it is still possible for urban couples to accept having only 1 child. Therefore, encouraging more people to have 1 child should be held as a basic policy. 2.) Under the option of 2 children per family with 2 or 3 years of spacing, the total population in the year 2000 would be 1.2 - 1.4 billion, which is unacceptable in terms of the development situation. 3.) Following a differential fertility policy towards urban, rural, and minority populations would mean that urban couples would have 1 child, rural couples whose first child is a girl or those who are in special circumstance would have 2 children. Minorities would have 2 or 3 children. AMong the above options, number 3 is more likely to be achieved in view of current socioeconomic, cultural, and demographic factors.     

A tentative analysis of the target set for China's population size]

The objectives of current Chinese population policy are reviewed. The author notes that these involve a planned regulation of population to the point that the population remains stable and is of high quality. Included is a theoretical discussion on the mutual adaptation of material production and human reproduction, as well as a discussion on the means of production in determining trends in population development.     

Studying Marxist theory on population and initiating a new situation in demographic research]

Within Marxist ideology are important population theories that led to the establishment of demography and the work of population control in China. Marxist population theory should be studied in order to build a scientific system of concepts in population theory. Both Marx and Engels spoke of the relationship between human reproduction and material production, and of how the modes of social development determine population development. Marx also established the view that a normal population and surplus population both were mutually adaptable with a certain production basis. In any historical period, the total population is not determined subjectively by man's wishes, but is a product of historical development. The Maoist population theory is derived from Marxist theory. Borrowing from historical materialism, Mao said that of all the objects in the world, man is the most precious. Nevertheless, he continued, while China's large population is good, it brings many difficulties; thus, population must be controlled. The study of demography should follow Marxist and Maoist population theories, even though the study of Marixst population theory is relatively recent and much remains to be learned.     

A preliminary analysis of the age structure of China's population since liberation]

Some characteristics of the age structure of the post-liberation Chinese population are examined. The population remains predominately young, although the author notes that with falling fertility, the median age of the labor force is gradually increasing. A change from high infant mortality to higher old-age mortality is also noted.     

On the role played by household registration materials in China's 1982 population census]

The author examines the relationship between the 1982 census and the population registration system in China. Because the household registration data are so complete (they include data on permanent and temporary residence, births, deaths, and migration), they were used as a starting point for census taking. In order for the census to take advantage of household registrations, the registration data were reviewed and corrected. This both reduced the cost of taking the census and improved the quality of the registration data.     

我国未来城镇人口规模及人口结构变动预测

对城镇人口规模和结构变动给予合理预测,有助于政府预估社会的劳动力供给和养老压力,进而制定合理高效的社会保障政策和进行相应政策调整。本文从规范的人口学角度,采用队列要素法通过年龄移算,在考虑城镇人口基数、出生率、死亡率、性别比以及城市化背景下乡城人口的净迁移率等多个参数的情况下,通过编制我国城镇人口生命表．对从现在起至未来2030年的时间内我国城镇人口的规模和结构进行动态预测,从而为我国制定合理而有针对性的城镇人口政策和经济政策提供参考。